October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Stilton Disco said:
In fairness, a staged 'battle' between it and U4 would have boosted it's profile and got it in the public eye more, at least in the US and UK, and they'd likely assumed that would do enough to counter the loss in sales from pissing off the established fanbase by bringing in new customers.

Of course then U4 got delayed and denied them the publicity they were counting on, and then the XO got left in the dust by the PS4, so there's no free publicity, and no real fanbase or new customers to sell to even if there were.

I think the odds of it ever matching the first game in either sales or revenue, even once it is released on the two platforms anyone actually wanted to buy it on, are extremely low.
Click to expand...

Seems like a big miscalculation in general.
 
Having a bit of time, I thought, "why not get a little international Amazon report for both October and November?"

Here it goes:

Amazon UK:
October:

#22: XB1 FIFA bundle - £289.00
#35: PS4 1Tb Player bundle - £329.00
#48: XB1 - £265.00
#92: PS4 - £264.99

November:

#50: XB1 - £265.00
#87: PS4 1Tb COD bundle - £299.95
#98: XB1 FIFA bundle - £289.00

Amazon FR:
October

#31: PS4 AK bundle - EUR 389,99
#38: XB1 FIFA bundle - EUR 349,00
#45: PS4 Battlefront LE - EUR 429,99 (Pre Order)
#66: PS4 1Tb AC Syndicate bundle - EUR 379,99
#82: PS4 1Tb + 2nd controller - EUR 399,95

November:

#11: XB1 - EUR 349,00
#24: XB1 FIFA 16 bundle - EUR 349,00
#35: PS4 1Tb + 2eme controller - EUR 399,95
#41: PS4 1Tb COD - EUR 429,99
#50: PS4 Battlefront LE - EUR 429,99 (Pre Order)
#77: PS4 1Tb AC S - EUR 379,99
#98: PS4 - EUR 349,00


Amazon DE:
October:

#11: PS4 1Tb Ultimate CUH 1116 - EUR 381,99
#13: PS4 1Tb Ultimate CUH 1216 - EUR 369,00

November:

#38: PS4 1Tb Ultimate CUH 1216 - EUR 369,00
#51: PS4 - EUR 329,00
#67: PS4 1Tb COD LE - EUR 472,95
#80: PS4 1Tb COD - EUR 406,13
#93: XB1 Elite 1Tb Bundle - EUR 499,00

Amazon CA:
October:

#8: PS4 Battlefront LE- CDN$ 469.99 (Pre Order)
#18: PS4 NHL 16 bundle - CDN$ 429.96
#26: PS4 1Tb COD bundle - CDN$ 499.99
#35: PS4 UC collection - CDN$ 429.99
#43: XB1 FIFA 16 - CDN$ 399.95
#44: XB1 Halo 5 Bundle - CDN$ 549.95
#92: XB1 GeoW bundle - CDN$ 374.99
#97: XB1 Fallout 4 bundle - CDN$ 449.96

November:

#6: PS4 1Tb COD bundle - CDN$ 499.99
#11: XB1 elite bundle - CDN$ 549.99
#12: XB1 Fallout bundle - CDN$ 449.96
#17: PS4 Battlefront bundle LE - CDN$ 469.99
#28: XB1 Halo 5 bundle - CDN$ 549.95
#30: PS4 NHL 16 bundle- CDN$ 429.96
#42: PS4 Battlefront Bundle - CDN$ 429.96
#59: XB1 1Tb Forza 6 bundle - CDN$ 449.95
#63: PS4 UC collection - CDN$ 429.99
#72: XB1 FIFA 16 bundle - CDN$ 399.95
 
Stilton Disco said:
In fairness, a staged 'battle' between it and U4 would have boosted it's profile and got it in the public eye more, at least in the US and UK, and they'd likely assumed that would do enough to counter the loss in sales from pissing off the established fanbase by bringing in new customers.

Of course then U4 got delayed and denied them the publicity they were counting on, and then the XO got left in the dust by the PS4, so there's no free publicity, and no real fanbase or new customers to sell to even if there were.

I think the odds of it ever matching the first game in either sales or revenue, even once it is released on the two platforms anyone actually wanted to buy it on, are extremely low.
Click to expand...

Shit, at least once that started happening I imagined Tomb Raider would be front and center as the main holiday bundle -- it would play the part of Assassin's Creed last year.



...nope.

I think we might be jumping to conclusions a bit, though. Let's see how it does at launch to get a better look at just how much of an uphill battle this will be.

What I'm trying to say is that November NPD will be very interesting.
 
From the Fallout OT.

CTeE1-CWcAAVaMB.png:large


For context´s sake, GTA V peaked at 290k. This game is going to be huge. Biggest non-Valve launch on Steam.
 
I think people are wrong on lifetime sales. Just like the first game, it will be very very heavily discounted and included in Humble Murderer Wah Critique bundle on steam for 4.99. It'll sell a lot.
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
Amazon US November 2015 update

#13 / PS4: Black Ops III
#19 / PS4: Uncharted The Nathan Drake Collection
#27 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront LE
#30 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront
#34 / XB1: Fallout 4
#66 / XB1: Halo 5 LE
#70 / XB1 + Kinect
#81 / XB1: Gears of War ultimate
#84 / XB1: Madden 16 NFL
#100 / WIU: Super Mario 3DWorld
Click to expand...



2 Days Later, here is the latest update. You know, for fun, since Black Friday will change it all!

#13 / PS4: Black Ops III
#19 / PS4: Uncharted The Nathan Drake Collection
#24 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront LE
#32 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront
#35 / XB1: Gears of War Bundle
#36 / XB1: Fallout Bundle
#51 / XB1: Kinect Bundle
#67 / XB1 Madden Bundle
#78 / XB1: Holiday Bundle
#79 / XB1: Halo Bundle
 
bud23 said:
From the Fallout OT.

CTeE1-CWcAAVaMB.png:large


For context´s sake, GTA V peaked at 290k. This game is going to be huge. Biggest non-Valve launch on Steam.
Click to expand...

For context sake GTA 5 had already sold 40 million by the time it came on PC if i remember right .
Still fallout will be big that for certain .
 
3rdamention said:
2 Days Later, here is the latest update. You know, for fun, since Black Friday will change it all!

#13 / PS4: Black Ops III
#19 / PS4: Uncharted The Nathan Drake Collection
#24 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront LE
#32 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront
#35 / XB1: Gears of War Bundle
#36 / XB1: Fallout Bundle
#67 / XB1 Madden Bundle
#78 / XB1: Holiday Bundle
#79 / XB1: Halo Bundle
Click to expand...

Given that the prices/ deals are essentially the same this year ($299 bundles doorbusters), I don't expect a complete reversal in PS4 vs XB1 tbh, but yeah, boatloads of the GeoW and Uncharted bundles will be sold over two days, for sure.
 
As the day is finally here i cannot believe MS & SE really went through with releasing that game today. Not only is Fallout's regular media coverage overshadowing it, all the talk about the performance is eating up the airwaves as well. Publicity is everywhere. For every 1 tomb raider article there are 5 for Fallout. Seriously, what on earth were they thinking. They have 5 months to move that day. Literally could have had it out the week before Halo or even the tuesday before CoD.
 
Ray Down said:
Which is weird considering the data they must have had and what was out at the time.
Click to expand...

I think they were gambling on being able to expand the Xbox player base without loosing the existing PC and Playstation ones.

You're right that it was weird decision though. Even back when this deal must have been signed, it was as clear as day that MS had lost this generation. Fallout 4 releasing the same week and the U4 delay were the final nails in the coffin, but they were diving into a waterless pool from the get go.

Worse, if this does absolutely bomb, that's going to knock the wind out of any marketing they can do for the PC and PS4 releases too, as the association of being a failed product is going to overshadow all the glowing reviews even before the uphill struggle against a the angered fanbase and 'old news' later port factor.
 
bud23 said:
From the Fallout OT.

CTeE1-CWcAAVaMB.png:large


For context´s sake, GTA V peaked at 290k. This game is going to be huge. Biggest non-Valve launch on Steam.
Click to expand...

Fallout gonna be a monster sales wise.

Stilton Disco said:
Worse, if this does absolutely bomb, that's going to knock the wind out of any marketing they can do for the PC and PS4 releases too, as the association of being a failed product is going to overshadow all the glowing reviews even before the uphill struggle against a the angered fanbase and 'old news' later port factor.
Click to expand...

I doubt it will "bomb", I seriously wonder what is SE expectations for this title now and for the PC and PS4 versions down the line.
 
Jesus, already 50 page. This NPD will fucking explode!

3rdamention said:
2 Days Later, here is the latest update. You know, for fun, since Black Friday will change it all!

#13 / PS4: Black Ops III
#19 / PS4: Uncharted The Nathan Drake Collection
#24 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront LE
#32 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront
#35 / XB1: Gears of War Bundle
#36 / XB1: Fallout Bundle
#51 / XB1: Kinect Bundle
#67 / XB1 Madden Bundle
#78 / XB1: Holiday Bundle
#79 / XB1: Halo Bundle
Click to expand...

Now we have 6 XB1 bundle VS 4 PS4 bundle, 60% of Amazon is dominated by Microsoft, XB1 wins November confirmed. :P
 
Anyone think Tomb Raider will chart for November's NPD next month? With Black Friday deals, we could see something like Madden or NBA2k get up on the charts or something, Minecraft will be there, with Fallout, Battlefront, and COD. Ass Creed could still be up there since its on sale on Black Friday. I was just wondering if Tomb Raider could pull it off.
 
3rdamention said:
Anyone think Tomb Raider will chart for November's NPD next month? With Black Friday deals, we could see something like Madden or NBA2k get up on the charts or something, Minecraft will be there, with Fallout, Battlefront, and COD. Ass Creed could still be up there since its on sale on Black Friday. I was just wondering if Tomb Raider could pull it off.
Click to expand...

My prediction

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III ( PS4; XB1; 360, PS3; PC)
2) Star Wars: Battlefront ( PS4; XB1; PC )
3) Fallout 4 ( PS4; XB1; PC )
4) Halo 5 ( XB1 )
5) NBA 2K16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3)
6) Madden NFL16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3 )
7) Assassin's Creed: Syndacate ( PS4; XB1; PC )
8) Yokay Watch ( 3DS )
9) Rise of the Tomb Raider ( XB1; 360)
10) Super Mario Maker ( Wii U )

So, yes, i think will chart.
 
Stilton Disco said:
Worse, if this does absolutely bomb, that's going to knock the wind out of any marketing they can do for the PC and PS4 releases too, as the association of being a failed product is going to overshadow all the glowing reviews even before the uphill struggle against a the angered fanbase and 'old news' later port factor.
Click to expand...

I think most PS4 buyers will wait until this game is sub $30 at this point. Bad feelings and old port, etc.
 
Stanng243 said:
I'm just saying, with deals like that, i don't expect people to be beating down the door. At least i won't, and I haven't missed a best buy black Friday in a long time.
Click to expand...

Think of it this way.

You're looking at it that way, I'm sure plenty of other people are too. How many people are going to then consider going to one store and even trying to get in line, hoping to get any particular deal? It's all a matter of consideration of scale and hedging bets.

It's also stupid. At least for us employees. Please treat your reps with courtesy and consideration if you go shopping on black Friday.

This month is a madhouse.
 
Abdiel said:
Think of it this way.

You're looking at it that way, I'm sure plenty of other people are too. How many people are going to then consider going to one store and even trying to get in line, hoping to get any particular deal? It's all a matter of consideration of scale and hedging bets.

I'd also stupid. At least for us employees. Please treat your reps with courtesy and consideration if you go shopping on black Friday.

This month is a madhouse.
Click to expand...

I worked at Target for BF last year.

Never again...
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
My prediction

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III ( PS4; XB1; 360, PS3; PC)
2) Star Wars: Battlefront ( PS4; XB1; PC )
3) Fallout 4 ( PS4; XB1; PC )
4) Halo 5 ( XB1 )
5) NBA 2K16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3)
6) Madden NFL16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3 )
7) Assassin's Creed: Syndacate ( PS4; XB1; PC )
8) Rise of the Tomb Raider ( XB1; 360)
9) Super Mario Maker ( Wii U )
10) Uncharted: The Nathan Drake Collection ( PS4 )

So, yes, i think will chart.
Click to expand...

Uncharted probably won't chart on November again.
 
3rdamention said:
Anyone think Tomb Raider will chart for November's NPD next month? With Black Friday deals, we could see something like Madden or NBA2k get up on the charts or something, Minecraft will be there, with Fallout, Battlefront, and COD. Ass Creed could still be up there since its on sale on Black Friday. I was just wondering if Tomb Raider could pull it off.
Click to expand...

I don't think it stands a chance. If a game like Forza 6 didn't chart in an off month I don't see Tomb Raider with no marketing to speak of charting this month.
 
[PS4] 468K
[XB1] 442K
[3DS] 113K
[WIU] 76K

Sales for PS4 and Xbox One should be pretty high but I now believe that the PS4 will take the month after Microsoft's recent statements (lack of detail). Back during the Summer, I thought October NPD would be similar to what we saw during MGS4's launch last gen (PS3 coming out on top thanks to a major exclusive) and that more than likely would have been the case if the PS4 didn't get a price drop.

The NA gap between the first place console and second place console is the smallest it has ever been during a gen with the Playstation brand at this point (previous gens had at least double the gap at this point) so while I understand people saying that Xbox One could still catch up in NA, the window is quickly closing thanks to the PS4's marketing deals.

The Holiday season will be big for both consoles and I think that MS will just focus on continuing to make the Xbox One have attractive games and features in territories where the system is relevant once 2016 starts (and put less focus on one-upping Sony's moves).

CoG said:
I don't think it stands a chance. If a game like Forza 6 didn't chart in an off month I don't see Tomb Raider charting this month.
Click to expand...

Completely different games that are part of different genres and have different sized appeal. I wouldn't make that comparison (though that's not to say I feel that Tomb Raider will chart -- don't have any idea; the game releasing alongside other games will hurt it but the good reviews may help it a bit too).
 
CoG said:
I don't think it stands a chance. If a game like Forza 6 didn't chart in an off month I don't see Tomb Raider charting this month.
Click to expand...

While both franchises don't appear to be that appealing to the US market, I would expect people to be more interested in a third person action adventure. Release timing though? Not ideal, to put it lightly.

Maybe it charts, maybe it won't, but I wouldn't compare it to Forza.
 
Ricky_R said:
While both franchises don't appear to be that appealing to the US market, I would expect people to be more interested in a third person action adventure. Release timing though?

Not ideal, to put it lightly. Maybe it charts, maybe it won't, but I wouldn't compare it to Forza.
Click to expand...

More recent comparison I have. Better comparison would be Forza Horizon 2 and Sunset Overdrive. Both were heavily marketed on off months and neither charted. CoD, Fallout 4, SWBF are going to dominate this month. Smaller releases like Tomb Raider are going to get sucked out.
 
Bgamer90 said:
[PS4] 468K
[XB1] 442K
[3DS] 113K
[WIU] 76K

Sales for PS4 and Xbox One should be pretty high but I now believe that the PS4 will take the month after Microsoft's recent statements (lack of detail). Back during the Summer, I thought October NPD would be similar to what we saw during MGS4's launch last gen (PS3 coming out on top thanks to a major exclusive) and that more than likely would have been the case if the PS4 didn't get a price drop.

The NA gap between the first place console and second place console is the smallest it has ever been during a gen with the Playstation brand at this point (previous gens had at least double the gap at this point) so while I understand people saying that Xbox One could still catch up in NA, the window is quickly closing thanks to the PS4's marketing deals.

The Holiday season will be big for both consoles and I think that MS will just focus on continuing to make the Xbox One have attractive games and features in territories where the system is relevant once 2016 starts (and put less focus on one-upping Sony's moves).



Completely different games that are part of different genres and have different sized appeal. I wouldn't make that comparison (though that's not to say I feel that Tomb Raider will chart -- don't have any idea; the game releasing alongside other games will hurt it but the good reviews may help it a bit too).
Click to expand...

I've been waiting to see your prediction. Thanks!
 
Abdiel said:
Think of it this way.

You're looking at it that way, I'm sure plenty of other people are too. How many people are going to then consider going to one store and even trying to get in line, hoping to get any particular deal? It's all a matter of consideration of scale and hedging bets.

I'd also stupid. At least for us employees. Please treat your reps with courtesy and consideration if you go shopping on black Friday.

This month is a madhouse.
Click to expand...

I always treat the workers with respect. I know I couldn't deal with a Black Friday rush. I was just a little disappointed with the ad. Best Buy usually has a decent sale on the toys for life video games, which I was hoping for this year.
 
Abdiel said:
Think of it this way.

You're looking at it that way, I'm sure plenty of other people are too. How many people are going to then consider going to one store and even trying to get in line, hoping to get any particular deal? It's all a matter of consideration of scale and hedging bets.

It's also stupid. At least for us employees. Please treat your reps with courtesy and consideration if you go shopping on black Friday.

This month is a madhouse.
Click to expand...

Yea I feel you. While people like us maybe want a bit more on deals. People will see $299 consoles and jump on them
 
Stanng243 said:
I always treat the workers with respect. I know I couldn't deal with a Black Friday rush. I was just a little disappointed with the ad. Best Buy usually has a decent sale on the toys for life video games, which I was hoping for this year.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I wasn't singling you out for that comment, no worries. Most gaffers are aware enough to not be jerks to service folks.

Sorry we don't have any better deals for you this year, certainly understand people save their dollars hoping for the best.

Good luck though.
 
Abdiel said:
Yeah, I wasn't singling you out for that comment, no worries. Most gaffers are aware enough to not be jerks to service folks.

Sorry we don't have any better deals for you this year, certainly understand people save their dollars hoping for the best.

Good luck though.
Click to expand...

Hey Ab, how are consoles tracking for this holiday at BB? How big we talking?
 
Abdiel said:
Think of it this way.

You're looking at it that way, I'm sure plenty of other people are too. How many people are going to then consider going to one store and even trying to get in line, hoping to get any particular deal? It's all a matter of consideration of scale and hedging bets.

It's also stupid. At least for us employees. Please treat your reps with courtesy and consideration if you go shopping on black Friday.

This month is a madhouse.
Click to expand...
I worked at Walmart during Black Friday when I was 17 and I was like " Fuck this shit I ain't working Black Friday ever again".
 
QaaQer said:
anyone old enough to remember and care about this:

50cent-vs-kaye-rolling-stone-cover_zpsmn23xcrv.jpg
Click to expand...
I remember this lol.

Abdiel said:
Fuck man. Midnight release, and then early mornings... Fallout doing very very well. Tomb raider doing... Okay, I guess, if I want to be nice. Seriously, what were they thinking...

Ugh though. So tired. And now our black Friday ads are posted. Maybe that will take some edge off.

(Hahaha...)

Ha...

Battlefront on the horizon gents. Fuck my life.
Click to expand...
You are in our prayers.

Thanks for all the info.
 
Stilton Disco said:
I think they were gambling on being able to expand the Xbox player base without loosing the existing PC and Playstation ones.

You're right that it was weird decision though. Even back when this deal must have been signed, it was as clear as day that MS had lost this generation. Fallout 4 releasing the same week and the U4 delay were the final nails in the coffin, but they were diving into a waterless pool from the get go.

Worse, if this does absolutely bomb, that's going to knock the wind out of any marketing they can do for the PC and PS4 releases too, as the association of being a failed product is going to overshadow all the glowing reviews even before the uphill struggle against a the angered fanbase and 'old news' later port factor.
Click to expand...
Not exactly.

With their performance in holiday 2014, I'm sure many people thought that was a turning point for XBO sales in the West. After all, ROTR is a very Western-oriented game, so it doesn't matter per se if sales for the console it's on were weak outside of US, UK and a few other spots. Also, it's not like there's a precedent of a generation being locked down within the first two years.

I'm sure between 1989-1991 the general concensus was that SNES was going to win the Western console market by default and wipe away the Genesis/MegaDrive, even as that platform was doing decently in the team leading up. Then Sonic came out and that gen turned into a more or less even split between those platforms in Western markets (cumulatively speaking; in some places like NA Genesis had a slight-to-noticeable share of the market up until 1994, and almost all of that momentum can be traced back to Sonic).

Perhaps in a way MS was thinking ROTR would be a momentum swinger for XBO in the West, and perhaps they convinced SE enough that such could have been possible, in addition to whatever perks SE got from MS for the deal. But no one could have predicted Fallout 4 and UC4 delay spoiling the party. One was bad enough but both? Daaaaaamn.
 
illmatic22 said:
I worked at Walmart during Black Friday when I was 17 and I was like " Fuck this shit I ain't working Black Friday ever again".
Click to expand...

I worked at Zellers (a walmat type store before walmart steamrolled them) as a high school student. We had arranged some of the display racks such that one person could squeeze in and take a nap sight unseen. lol

I like to think when I cant find someone on the floor, they are napping.
 
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