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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Sangetsu-II
Member
Exactly this^
Darth Smurf X
Member
NPD_George
Junior Member
Yay! This thread just got. INTERESTING.
Junior Member
Yay! This thread just got. INTERESTING.
slavesnyder
Member
I wonder how long Halo's legs will be.
It released at the very end of October, and in the November monthlies it's just at 33.
For such an important game that is only on one platform that does not feel too well.
Maybe the Happy Home Designer, currently at 37, will overtake him until end of month.
It released at the very end of October, and in the November monthlies it's just at 33.
For such an important game that is only on one platform that does not feel too well.
Maybe the Happy Home Designer, currently at 37, will overtake him until end of month.
In UK is dropped by 78% during the second week.
FO4 seems a bit niche to me, at least next to AAA juggernauts like AC, Star Wars and COD.
I'll say it will launch at 900K - 1100K for retail.
Dash_Riprock
Member
With CoD out and BF in a couple weeks my guess is weak legs for November.
December may paint a different picture depending on WoM.
Welfare
Member
That's what New Vegas did. Not going to be that low.
slavesnyder
Member
That's still a big niche...
But I think it will do better than that, too. 2M across all platforms should be doable.
Pew. That's not nice.
And from now on every pixel available for money will be plastered with fallout (by Microsoft) and later Battlefront.
On the big sites there is hardly any prominent article about Halo to find. Not too many top gaf discussions either.
It's vanishing quickly it seems.
CosmicQueso
Member
Not sure you know the definition of the word "niche", my friend.
I think he's being sarcastic. I hope.
Ha, I figured that estimate was conservative, relative to the mammoth number those other AAA games launch at.
In that case, I'll bump it up to 1500K.
Fallout has never been on my radar. Not my cup of tea at all.
It was only with the reveal of FO4 that I realised just how big of a deal the game is. The pre-E3 reveal was the most watched E3 gaming video on Youtube, easily beating out the likes of the Sony conference, UC4 etc.
The game will sell millions.
slavesnyder
Member
NPD. All platforms.
Obliterator
Member
NPD early prediction for FO4 from me is 2 million.
In light of this information, I will revise my numbers for retail launch:
High end: 1600K
Low end: 1300K
Obliterator
Member
Your high end still seems low end imo. I dont see how sub 1.5 mil would be possible
Delusibeta
Banned
The sheer fact that Xbox data is being absolutely buried in the financial reports implies that "Xbox is losing money" is a very safe assumption.
CosmicQueso
Member
Which is different than saying "it's clearly losing money", which is the comment I replied to.
I was asking because the statement was being presented as fact, and I wanted to know if that breakdown was actually out there. Clearly it isn't.
We have so little information flowing around that when someone makes a statement that implies certitude it is nice to know if that's actually the case or if it's just some assumption.
The Mad Draklor
Member
I found this post if you're wondering how past Halo games did in the UK.
The drop is the same, percentage-wise, but we also have to take into account that Halo 5 sold less than its predecessors even if we were to include digital sales.
SupperCrunch
Member
Almost forgot this month!
[3DS] 110K
[PS4] 440K
[WIU] 75K
[XB1] 420K
[3DS] 110K
[PS4] 440K
[WIU] 75K
[XB1] 420K
I knew what the Halo drop usually is, the problem is that i expected better legs for Halo 5 because a lower first week...
I believe in 2 million... But so far, so many, MANY games has sold less than what i predicted this year... and there is some of wrong here.
For example, i predicted 1.7 million for Batman AK first NPD.
Why? Because i predicted the bigger opening of the series, and AC has sold 1.5 million.
At the end, i was right. Batman AK has sold more than Batman AC. But it sold 1.21 million.
WTF!!! :-|
I also predicted 1.5 million for MGS V... it sold barely more than half of that.
I don't know why, but some numebers this year was soooooooooooooooo disappoint for me...
StrongBlackVine
Banned
3 more days. I predict a few graves being dug no matter who wins.
after the DF thread on FO4 and the review thread of FO4. I REALLY can't wait for the NPD thread. It's going to be fun. Especially if the PS4 wins people are going to lose their shit.
It'll be nice to see what Halo 5 sold as well.
harrisk954
Member
DriftingSpirit
Member
Okay, now I am seeing the Tomb Raider promo ramp up on TV. I've seen the Tomb Raider commercials quite a bit tonight. I'm not sure how effective it will be just a day before it releases though.
Hey, donny, do we have an aggregate for the predictions yet? I'm interested to see if the PS4 or XB1 is ahead.
VanCityGamer
Member
Thank goodness I have games to tide me over until I get to read about how well games have sold? Priorities straight I can see
shinra-bansho
Member
There's nothing available as far as I'm aware to indicate the margin on a standalone XB1 unit, positive or negative.
Obliterator
Member
Im actually starting to think 2 mil may be a tad low
serversurfer
Member
Well then. He did recently say that if the Bone didn't turn a profit, it may not last the generation, so their days of buying marketshare are definitely behind them. I'm just surprised it still costs them so much to build.
Anyway, does anyone happen to have a link for that? I'm curious as to exactly what was said.
It's extremely rare for games to debut at 2+ million on NPD, Destiny had a massive marketing campaign and it barely did that.
Usually relying solely on market trend (i.e. eventual discounts on RAM chips over time and such) to lower BOM isn't good idea so it should require internal re-modeling, like Sony re-designed internals of PS4 and released CUH1200. Have Microsoft ever given XB1 internal revision?
No implies. Sell far less than PS4 is a good reason to not release unit sales, but this doesn't mean losing money.
Very safe assumption honestly is consider that Xbox One is the console with the best financial results for Microsoft at this point in life cycle, because Original Xbox bled money and 360 had the 3 red lights that cost more than 1 billion. Also Xbox One is likely tracking ahead of both.
Well if you are comparing it like that then yes xbox one is doing amazing lol
Dash_Riprock
Member
If Sony or MS release PR before Thursday, does that mean they lost?
Didn't Sony release a PR something about being No.1 on Amazon just before the NPD Nov last year ?
Sorry but are facts from Xbox family, should be considered to analyse which is the best console for Microsoft financially.
I recall it coming out almost a day late.
Norwegian_Imposter
Member
the lack of any buzz around tomb raider cant be good for xb1 can it...
Sangetsu-II
Member
Link
Starts at 49:39 where Phil Spencer dodges the question, basically not trying to get into if each SKU has profitability.