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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

O

Obliterator

Member
Y2Kev said:
I don't think SE is worried about how this performs in the short term, I really don't. The deal most likely effectively de-risked this release. I think what they have to be more worried about is if they damaged or lowered the profile of the series in the eyes of their main audience, which, let's be honest, is comprised primarily of PC players and Playstation owners, particularly in Europe. At least historically.

Since no competitor has emerged to say I AM YOUR NEW CHAMPION to those people, I think they'll be fine.

The adage to me is simple: you don't make uncharted and then not offer it to uncharted fans.
Click to expand...

I suppose this could be accurate. I still think it will do well on PC but will it perform well on PS4 a year later? Because the Xbox sales are going to be.....i mean bad
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
They're going to be fine and you are all going to look bad when microsoft trumpets the number of tombs raided since launch and square stuffs the channel with like 2 million copies.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
N.Domixis said:
Than at the end Nathan bangs Laura, and a new legend is born. Lara Drake Jr.
Click to expand...
Get your facts right, man. Nate and Lara have a kid, they accidentally unleashed the cordeceps fungus, Lara becomes infected and Drake runs away with their kid, whom he named Sarah and he changes his name to Joel. And the rest is history.
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I don't think SE is worried about how this performs in the short term, I really don't. The deal most likely effectively de-risked this release. I think what they have to be more worried about is if they damaged or lowered the profile of the series in the eyes of their main audience, which, let's be honest, is comprised primarily of PC players and Playstation owners, particularly in Europe. At least historically.

Since no competitor has emerged to say I AM YOUR NEW CHAMPION to those people, I think they'll be fine. I think there is a big chance of getting "wally pip'd" so to speak, where exclusive franchises lose ground to multiplatform franchises that absolutely blow the fuq up, but there is none here to really play that role. If there was a new EA Star Wars TPS, like Star Wars 1313 was, that could really have stolen this game's thunder. But there's not.

The adage to me is simple: you don't make uncharted and then not offer it to uncharted fans.
Click to expand...

Isn't Hennig working on something like that right now?
 
M

Maniel

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I don't think SE is worried about how this performs in the short term, I really don't. The deal most likely effectively de-risked this release. I think what they have to be more worried about is if they damaged or lowered the profile of the series in the eyes of their main audience, which, let's be honest, is comprised primarily of PC players and Playstation owners, particularly in Europe. At least historically.

Since no competitor has emerged to say I AM YOUR NEW CHAMPION to those people, I think they'll be fine. I think there is a big chance of getting "wally pip'd" so to speak, where exclusive franchises lose ground to multiplatform franchises that absolutely blow the fuq up, but there is none here to really play that role. If there was a new EA Star Wars TPS, like Star Wars 1313 was, that could really have stolen this game's thunder. But there's not.

The adage to me is simple: you don't make uncharted and then not offer it to uncharted fans.
Click to expand...

I'm sure that it hasn't damaged the series anymore than a year long delay of the game would. Plus, it has good reviews so people who want it on pc or ps4 will know it's a good game before it releases.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
If anything, wouldn't the TR delay on PS4 push fans of that style of game towards UC4 (that is to say, people who would have picked up TR over UC4)?

Seeing as how it's not a competition anymore (in terms of release dates) and TR is coming out several months later.
 
Y

yukianderson

Member
Primethius said:
If anything, wouldn't the TR delay on PS4 push fans of that style of game towards UC4 (that is to say, people who would have picked up TR over UC4)?

Seeing as how it's not a competition anymore (in terms of release dates) and TR is coming out several months later.
Click to expand...

Pretty much this. There is also the NDC bundles that will make new fans of the series since that's the black Friday bundle. This means new fans. Also Uncharted is left with no one to challenge it and will probably have a bundle and an amazing marketing campaign unlike TR.
 
Drac84

Drac84

Member
zsynqx said:
Who will be more pissed about the Tomb Raider situation, Square or Microsoft? The real loser hear is Crystal Dynamics who by all accounts cranked out an amazing game, and are likely to be rewarded with middling sales because of a dumb business decision and packed release date.
Click to expand...

I think there's a enough dissapointment and angst to be shared around on this one.

Microsoft likely played a heft sum for an exclusive to combat Uncharted 4 in holiday 2015. They copped a lot of flak for buying exclusivity, but it all would have been worth it when holiday 2015 was abuzz with comparisons between U4 and TR. The day U4 was delayed this deal became an unwanted mistake for them. They also likely hoped that Tomb Raider fans would buy XB1 consoles to play the game, but anecdotally it seems as though many of these fans will simply wait to buy th egame in 12 months' time on PS4 or PC.

Square likely saw the deal as a win-win initially. They figured that despite the vast majority of Tomb Raider fans being Playstation or PC gamers, Uncharted launching on PS4 in holiday 2015 meant that most PS4 gamers would choose to buy that game over TR, so they may as well delay the launch on PS4 to 2016 when there's not this direct competition. And as a bonus, they get a big pay day from MS and benefit from the increased marketing and bundles that come with being a big third party exclusive. Again, the day U4 was delayed this all fell to shit. For reasons known only to Square, if they did have assurances from MS with regards to marketing and bundles, they sure as hell didn't get them in writing, because there has been zero marketing of this game here (Australia), and from what I understand it's a similar story in other countries.

All the ill-will they garnered amongst their core fan base was for nothing. They'll now likely be coming up against an Uncharted 4 GOTY edition in holiday 2016, not to mention the other AAA games releasing then.

But even if things had gone to plan, it has always struck me as a weird decision from Square. They're trying to restore Tomb Raider to AAA industry status. Revenue surely takes a lower priority over sales and growing (or re-growing) the brand and fan engagement. Ultimatley we won't know the long-term damage this deal has made until the next Tomb Raider game is released and we can see if there is still lingering salt from core Tomb Raider fans.

The whole thing has been fascinating to me from the moment exclusivity was announced.
 
Y

yukianderson

Member
Y2Kev said:
They're going to be fine and you are all going to look bad when microsoft trumpets the number of tombs raided since launch and square stuffs the channel with like 2 million copies.
Click to expand...

Yeah is going to be fine like the gamestop employed who said he sold two copies of the game. Bet MS will make an awesome PR announcement on TR awesome day one sales.
 
N

Nightengale

Member
Square just needs to market the PS4 version of ROTR with the concept of "As (the era of) Thieves End,(Tomb) Raider Rises."

Exclusive on PS4, Launching Holiday 2016.*

*the Ps4 port is exclusively launching during holiday 2016.

/jk
 
Y

yukianderson

Member
Drac84 said:
I think there's a enough dissapointment and angst to be shared around on this one.

Microsoft likely played a heft sum for an exclusive to combat Uncharted 4 in holiday 2015. They copped a lot of flak for buying exclusivity, but it all would have been worth it when holiday 2015 was abuzz with comparisons between U4 and TR. The day U4 was delayed this deal became an unwanted mistake for them. They also likely hoped that Tomb Raider fans would buy XB1 consoles to play the game, but anecdotally it seems as though many of these fans will simply wait to buy th egame in 12 months' time on PS4 or PC.

Square likely saw the deal as a win-win initially. They figured that despite the vast majority of Tomb Raider fans being Playstation or PC gamers, Uncharted launching on PS4 in holiday 2015 meant that most PS4 gamers would choose to buy that game over TR, so they may as well delay the launch on PS4 to 2016 when there's not this direct competition. And as a bonus, they get a big pay day from MS and benefit from the increased marketing and bundles that come with being a big third party exclusive. Again, the day U4 was delayed this all fell to shit. For reasons known only to Square, if they did have assurances from MS with regards to marketing and bundles, they sure as hell didn't get them in writing, because there has been zero marketing of this game here (Australia), and from what I understand it's a similar story in other countries.

All the ill-will they garnered amongst their core fan base was for nothing. They'll now likely be coming up against an Uncharted 4 GOTY edition in holiday 2016, not to mention the other AAA games releasing then.

But even if things had gone to plan, it has always struck me as a weird decision from Square. They're trying to restore Tomb Raider to AAA industry status. Revenue surely takes a lower priority over sales and growing (or re-growing) the brand and fan engagement. Ultimatley we won't know the long-term damage this deal has made until the next Tomb Raider game is released and we can see if there is still lingering salt from core Tomb Raider fans.

The whole thing has been fascinating to me from the moment exclusivity was announced.
Click to expand...

Like the TR game director said is about passion. They just need a little passion to sell the game on PC and PS4 next year. He's full of passion so the game will sell...
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I don't think SE is worried about how this performs in the short term, I really don't. The deal most likely effectively de-risked this release. I think what they have to be more worried about is if they damaged or lowered the profile of the series in the eyes of their main audience, which, let's be honest, is comprised primarily of PC players and Playstation owners, particularly in Europe. At least historically.

Since no competitor has emerged to say I AM YOUR NEW CHAMPION to those people, I think they'll be fine. I think there is a big chance of getting "wally pip'd" so to speak, where exclusive franchises lose ground to multiplatform franchises that absolutely blow the fuq up, but there is none here to really play that role. If there was a new EA Star Wars TPS, like Star Wars 1313 was, that could really have stolen this game's thunder. But there's not.

The adage to me is simple: you don't make uncharted and then not offer it to uncharted fans.
Click to expand...
You could very well be right, but let's look at what's coming fall 2016 on PS4 shall we?

Not only will you (probably) have a "Goty" edition of UC4 for cheaper (I can totally see SE trying to launch RotTR as a "Definitive" edition full price), but also another game featuring a strong female character with a bow fighting Dinosaurs in the wilderness.

And I don't know about you, but by then something tells me I'll be looking forward to that game about 100x more than a year old sloppy third frankly. (Unless of course Horizon ends up delayed, which is always a possibility).

I think SE f*ed up royally by taking this deal, but time will tell.
 
Y

yukianderson

Member
Obliterator said:
Lets do another fun brave Sales GAF prediction

Whats you guys got for November Tomb Raider NPD?
Click to expand...

250K - 300K is a probable guess. I think the bundles been exclusive to best buy and MS stores really hurt the game even more. Like people said once Uncharted was delayed MS didn't care about TR and it shows with the marketing, bundles and coming out the same day as Fallout 4. Is like the perfect storm to send a game to die.
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
Ricky_R said:
Not ending as in Sony continuing to milk it. Another studio will have to suffice.
Click to expand...

They have hardly milked Uncharted. I will be over 4 years since the last game. Let it sit for few years after UC4 then make another one.

stryke said:
I'm going with this. BF will give it a boost.
Click to expand...

It has to be on sale though and no games released this month seem to be getting discounts as of now. It will get a lot stiff competition with a lot the biggest games this year like TW3, Batman, MKX, and sport games being $35 or less.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Was it already pointed out that the Nintendo Direct goes up at the same time as when the NPD results are released to subscribers for October?
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
GeoramA said:
It's looking like a waste for both sides.

It'll probably be sent to die on PS4 as well. That would be hilarious, one game sent to die twice. Has that ever happened?
Click to expand...

8446957635_8a2c8680fe.jpg
Click to expand...

.... /(T_T)\
 
S

serversurfer

Member
Sangetsu-II said:
Link

Starts at 49:39 where Phil Spencer dodges the question, basically not trying to get into if each SKU has profitability.
Click to expand...
Thanks. Yeah, that didn't sound too good, especially when he followed it all up with, "But really, you make your money after the initial sale" or whatever he said. That's kinda crazy. Why would it still be so expensive?

He also deflected to Live again, and seemed to be warning fans of an increasing focus on Windows (to their ultimate benefit, of course).


DriftingSpirit said:
For those who have worked in retail during Black Friday, is it possible to make a metaphorical comparison of what it is like?
Click to expand...
Supposedly, it's called Black Friday because that's when retailers finally get in to the black for the year, but I'm pretty sure it's actually because the people descending on the malls blot out the sun.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Ryng_Tolu said:
My prediction

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III ( PS4; XB1; 360, PS3; PC)
2) Star Wars: Battlefront ( PS4; XB1; PC )
3) Fallout 4 ( PS4; XB1; PC )
4) Halo 5 ( XB1 )
5) NBA 2K16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3)
6) Madden NFL16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3 )
7) Assassin's Creed: Syndacate ( PS4; XB1; PC )
8) Yokay Watch ( 3DS )
9) Rise of the Tomb Raider ( XB1; 360)
10) Super Mario Maker ( Wii U )

So, yes, i think will chart.
Click to expand...
Halo 5 that high in November?
Bomb Raider in the TOP10?

Well I really really have doubts about that.
 
C

crinale

Member
I know it's inevitable but what are we doing on October prediction thread.. :)
Anyway I think discussion will move over to new thread once result comes out.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Ryng_Tolu said:
In Japan it's legs are strong, and usually in The US The Mario legs are even better than in Japan.

What Games Can Beat Mario Maker in November for You?

Maybe Uncharted and Minecraft, definitively possible even if i don't think so, but others games?

It Can definitively be out of TOP TEN, but is not that unlucky for me.
Click to expand...

10 games to beat Mario Maker? that's really easy (roughly in order, but not exactly):

1. Call of Duty: Black Ops III
2. Star Wars: Battlefront
3. Fallout 4
4. Madden NFL 16
5. Assassin's Creed: Syndicate
6. NBA 2K16
7. Halo 5
8. FIFA 16
9. Minecraft
10. Tomb Raider or one of the family titles

you're really underestimating the top 10 cutoff in November, last year MCC was #10 with like 660k or something, granted it'll probably be a little lower this time without double Pokemon versions but still
 
3

3rdamention

Member
Yeah, if many of your 250-300K Tomb Raider predictions are close, I dont see any way that Tomb Raider charts in November NPD.


That doesn't necessarily mean it is a failure, or a bomb. But it would have to be a tough pill to swallow considering that Tomb Raider was #2 in NPD in March 2013. I know, I know, March. But it was the biggest Tomb Raider launch ever selling 3.4 million copies that first month, and those sales were considered "weak" in Square's 2013 Fiscal Year Report. Yet their sales expectations were nearly double that. I know it had a lot of developmental time, and costed a lot. The new one will not. But to have expectations of your last game to sell 5-6 million in its first month, then to achieve 3 million, and then if the next Tomb Raider game is even close to the predictions in this thread in North America I dont know.




Lets say it sells 500K. I dont know what deal MS and SE cut for this period of exclusivity and I am aware that it wouldn't have sold 3 million if it launched on both platforms. That is still going to be a LOT of missed sales that somebody is going to have to pay for, hopefully that was well covered when this deal was struck. I just don't know where the game can pick up a lot of sales outside the US and UK...
 
V

velvet_nitemare

Member
Ryng_Tolu said:
The trend is that Splatoon is selling better than MK8 Worlwide.

NOT in Japan. But Worldwide.

First quarter
MK8 - 2.82m
Splat - 1.62m

Mk8 has a better Launch.

Second quarter:
Splat: 800k
MK8: 670k

So, The trend show Splatoon has better legs. This is a Fact, now if You guys think it's legs will drop under MK8, i'm ok with This, but This is YOUR prediction.

The trend is SPLAT Over MK8.

Now, MK8 has Sold 1.28m The third quarter.
Splatoon, with this trend, will Beat this, and by end of year will be over 3.64m.

This is The trend. Am i wrong?
Click to expand...

The correlation coefficient of a trend line with 2 data points isn't very strong, you need several more data points before you can even begin to confidently talk about a trend the way you are. I'm guessing English is your second or 3rd language, but i've also noticed what Rex is speaking of.You have a way of expressing yourself that makes predictions fel like facts. And a self aggrandizing nature. You are also very very enthusiastic about Nintendo, and their games. You're the guy that posted a splatoon chart with your name on it in a thread about MS qarterly numbers.

I'm very sorry if you feel attacked, that is not my intention at all and i assure you this isn't personal. But try to separate your Nintendo love from sales threads, it will make you more objective. I think sales threads on here would be better for it. God bless.
 
G

GnawtyDog

Banned
Obliterator said:
It is a literal bomb imo as I expect the budget was large
Click to expand...

At least they cut MP this time (I figure it might have saved Square money) and stayed on a normal dev cycle. If it does less than 300k opening - that is god damn flop. 300k-500k is also a flop but I can see some posters making a deal out of those numbers - "not" flop-numbers (they're if you consider budgets and precedent). Still, when you consider the fact that it's not releasing on PS4 for over a year and that it will release on PC on a packed Spring... the additional sales won't make a dent on overall numbers, not to mention shrinking margins. Also of note, if they try to sell the game for $60 1 year later on PS4 with all DLC, but no MP to speak of, flop again. Good luck releasing in the holidays against the mammoth's next year.
 
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