Futurematic
Member
Yep. And they've managed to fake annualize their franchise (on the cheap even) 2013-2017 if you think Fall of the TR will make it in two-ish years as I do.
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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yep. And they've managed to fake annualize their franchise (on the cheap even) 2013-2017 if you think Fall of the TR will make it in two-ish years as I do.
D
Deleted member 471617
Unconfirmed Member
I'm going to predict that Rise of the Tomb Raider enters the November NPD at number five overall with 520K copies sold. The top four will be Star Wars BF, COD: BO III, Fallout 4 and Halo 5. AC Syndicate will sneak into the top ten at number ten. LOL.
Looking at the games, Rise of the Tomb Raider is by far the biggest alternative especially for those who want to play a good single player linear adventure game. Fallout 4 may or may not be great but it's another open world game as is AC Syndicate. The other three are FPS and really, how many people are going to buy all three or even two out of the three? If you have one, do you really need either of the other two?
Tomb Raider stands out because it's not what all the rest are and that's why it will sell. Granted, still crushed compared to the top four but better than expected.
Looking at the games, Rise of the Tomb Raider is by far the biggest alternative especially for those who want to play a good single player linear adventure game. Fallout 4 may or may not be great but it's another open world game as is AC Syndicate. The other three are FPS and really, how many people are going to buy all three or even two out of the three? If you have one, do you really need either of the other two?
Tomb Raider stands out because it's not what all the rest are and that's why it will sell. Granted, still crushed compared to the top four but better than expected.
Which made it all the more unsightly when someone at CD (I forgot who) said something to the tune of "Golly gee, I can't believe Rise of the Tomb Raider is getting revealed on the same stage as juggernauts like Halo."
Calm waterfall
Banned
It´s a long term blunder. You don´t just re-launch a massive IP on all platforms then make it an exclusive to Xbox, which TR sold the weakest on. People who own PlayStation don´t buy late ports, ME2 is a prime example of that. PC gamers don´t care and buy late ports. I honestly think SE cut TR franchise at the knees because the franchise could have grown bigger than its previous entry. Now it will be lucky if it reaches 5 million (probably best case scenario, with bundles and discounts), which a huge sales fall from previous titles.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Sports games(NBA 2K Madden), Minecraft and maybe some family friendly title will be above ROTR as well. AC Syndicate will be around $30 on Black Friday so it will possibly sell more as well. Then you have games like MGSV,Batman and TW3 going super cheap on Black Friday as well possibly competing with it.
D
Deleted member 471617
Unconfirmed Member
Possible but except for Minecraft which doesn't seem to want to go away, majority of gamers who really wanted to play those games already bought them. Yeah, you'll get the holdouts who were waiting for a cheaper price but im going to stand by my prediction and keep ROTTR in the top five.
All signs point to Syndicate gaining steam thanks to not being a barrel of glitches. Retail insight and UK charts show as much. I dont think there is any way that Tomb Raider sells more on 360/XB1 than Syndicate does across XB1/PS4/PC. As far as Halo goes, Uk charts are showing a second week drop of -78% for Halo and US is sure to follow suit with a similar drop. If it ranks it is far more likely to rank in the lower five not the top five given the data we have.
Also I dont think you realize how competitive November charts are for software. Last year the number 10 spot on the chart sold 660k units. There is simply no way that number five on the charts is only going to be selling 520k units. Especially when considering the increased install base and the heavy hitters we have releasing this November.
Sorry but it just doesnt add up.
Chobel
Member
450K
What the hell guys? No way it's gonna sell less than 400K.
I doubt it, it's not even that bundled right now. Plus next year MS will bundle Halo 5 and the newest games (Quantum Break, The Division...)
freefornow
Gold Member
525k
feel free to point and laugh
20 days on sale with positive WOM
Black friday discount deals
And i feel that this will be "value added" to many an XB1 deal that surfaces on BF (I am assuming that games value added to official bundles get counted by NPD)
serversurfer
Member
I just jumped in here, so I'm not entirely sure what you guys are arguing about, but no, that's not really a "trend." Yes, Splatoon currently has stronger legs and is selling better than MK8, but that's not really a trend; it's just the current state of affairs. A trend would be if all Splatoon games tend to have longer legs than MK games, or the fact that Nintendo games tend to have long legs in general, or even if the strong legs of Splatoon vs. MK8 were to carry on for a few periods.
Yes, Splatoon is selling well currently better than MK8 but that doesn't demonstrate it's going to pass MK8. It does demonstrate that it stands a good chance though. HTH <3
Obliterator
Member
Idk maybe a bunch of us are under selling it but the game feels like it has no momentum at all. Theres barely any advertising, not a wide spread bundle, it launched next to FO4, etc.
Idk maybe it'll leg out to better sales in the end but I just dont see it going over 350k max
Rise of the Tomb Raider~250-400k.
If the 2013 reboot did 600k in month 1, then I think my prediction coupled with the lack of buzz and other massive 3rd party games is a reasonable guesstimate.
I dunno, ME was a different kettle of fish. It launched exclusively on 360 and PC and had a ton of great word of mouth, then the series was broadened to a new audience on Playstation.
I was salivating by the time I got to play ME2 on PS3 and felt no apathy, even if it was like 8 months after the game came out.
My point is TR has nothing like that working in its favour except for good reviews.
If the 2013 reboot did 600k in month 1, then I think my prediction coupled with the lack of buzz and other massive 3rd party games is a reasonable guesstimate.
I dunno, ME was a different kettle of fish. It launched exclusively on 360 and PC and had a ton of great word of mouth, then the series was broadened to a new audience on Playstation.
I was salivating by the time I got to play ME2 on PS3 and felt no apathy, even if it was like 8 months after the game came out.
My point is TR has nothing like that working in its favour except for good reviews.
Nightengale
Member
How did ME3 do on PlayStation 3?
I expect Andromeda to do well on PS4, but that's effectively a reboot.
Tomb Raider is more narrative heavy this time, and SE already confirmed a trilogy at least.
I expect Andromeda to do well on PS4, but that's effectively a reboot.
Tomb Raider is more narrative heavy this time, and SE already confirmed a trilogy at least.
Chobel
Member
I would have agreed with you if it wasn't for BF, this should give its sales some boost.
Th leaked BF ads didn't have RoTTR as "value added". (Missing Walmart and Amazon though)
TR is the exception to the UK = little America rule, in this case TR does as well as the rest of Europe
Hydrargyrus
Member
I would say 250K for TR, but probably it would be given for free during the Black friday in many stores...
Well regarding this Eurogamer NPD article, ME3 sold 930,000 copies on 360 and the ratio to PS3 was 4:1. Likely 1.18 million in total minus PC.
I'm expecting a role reversal this gen but the split won't be as massive.
AmaterasuOni
Banned
275k for Lara NPD and about 550k WW. It really has tough competition.
EDIT: Unless it's a freebie on BF, then it can hit million and more.
EDIT: Unless it's a freebie on BF, then it can hit million and more.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
No that is not true especially for the sports games and AC. Those games always creep back into the top 10 during the holidays because of the discounts.
Because of PlayStation and PC.
I could see this happening. It's about the only way it will salvaged at this point. But I also expected Microsoft to make Tomb Raider their main bundle this Fall simillar to AC Unity last year. I'm not sure they are willing to eat the cost for this game.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
That's not a prediction.Or did you already make one?
I'm just giving more information for people make predictions.
Brad Grenz
Member
I think Rise of the Tomb Raider will be lucky to break 200K on Xbox One. Not sure what 360 could add.
panda-zebra
Member
222k (that's xb1 retail copies)
150k for tombraider npd
Still a pretty good number, especially when you realize every one of those people has 9 friends who'll buy it digitally.
I think there is a very little interest for X360. I know that Amazon for software is not reliable, but X360 is damn low on charts.
In the UK, 360 was the best selling SKU.
TR will do similarly to Dragon Age last year except it might actually chart. Somewhere between 180K - 220K. You figure the top 3 games this month will all be 2M+ sellers. Some of the sports games will sneak in because of BF sales. Halo 5 and AC Syndicate should stick around. GTAV might make an apparence and Minecraft is always there. That might leave a spot available for TR.
That spot will be some family game like Disney Infinity/Skylanders/Lego.
I think TR will do about 400k at most between XB1 and 360, but I do not see it charting.
COD Blops 3
Battlefront
Fallout 4
Madden 16
Halo5
AC Syndicate
NBA2K16
Minecraft
GTAV
Need for Speed
and possibly
Disney Infinity / or Skylanders/ Lego Dimension (due to BF deals) somewhere
COD Blops 3
Battlefront
Fallout 4
Madden 16
Halo5
AC Syndicate
NBA2K16
Minecraft
GTAV
Need for Speed
and possibly
Disney Infinity / or Skylanders/ Lego Dimension (due to BF deals) somewhere
Chobel
Member
Dragon Age did +600K IIRC.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I thought you were talking about Europe outside of the UK.
EDIT: Nevermind I think you are right. Halo MCC was number 10 last year and that sold pretty well.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
You left a little game named Fallout 4 off your list.
Mikey Jr.
Member
Are we sure fallout 4 is going to chart?
I'm positive it will.
Joke post?
Lol yeah. Correcting that.
Imo the only bigger ones in Nov will be the annualized shooters. If it had been a classic Battlefield I could even see it higher, but here it's Star Wars...
Yes it will chart as it is an fps rpg
My bad, I should have been more clear. Tomb Raider in the UK is popular unlike NA, in that sense the UK market is (unusually) closer to continental Europe than NA in terms of taste.
It wouldn't surprise me if Rise sells better in the UK than it does in the US, despite the difference in their market size.
This IS NOT my Nintendo love, this is MY PREDICTION.
I made a prediction with a graph. So, why you should think this prediction is not realistic?
Am i a Nintendo fan? Yes, does it mean i don't argue what i said?
Rex said the trend show Splatoon is not gonna sell what i believe will sell... And why?
Now, don't talk about who i prefer like company. He said the trend show i overestimate Splatoon, but SO FAR, it is selling better than i predicted.
So, why this is not a realistic prediction?
And you can say i have only two quarter of sales, ok, but in those 2 quarter of sales, Splatoon has show better legs than Mario Kart. Is not? yes.
So, if you guys predict Splatoon will sell some like 4 million or less, well, this for me seem just impossible. But i'm ok with this.
Just, i'm tired when people say my prediction are unrealistic. Splatoon has always sold more than all predition, including mine.
The trend, so far, show this. Why my prediction is unrealistic?
So far, in my opinion, my are the most realistic prediction. If you disagree, well... ok.
But don't say those are dream or hope, when is even selling more than what i predict.
I don't say it will beat MK8 in lifetime sales.
I predict 8 million for Mario Kart and 5.5 million for Splatoon.
That said, i enjoyed replied with you guys, because you argue what you said.
Dash_Riprock
Member
I would love it if Sony/MS gave early PR today. The whole board would explode about its meaning/possible spin.
yukianderson
Member
Just one more day till the NPD.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
more like 33 hours