Wkd Box Office 0401-0316 - BvS has 'worse legs than Barbara Gordon' -- Sibersk Esto
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DeathoftheEndless
Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
They should show it in VR D-Box.
Escape Goat
Member
Expendable, is that you
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I guess they let Meus go after last summer.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I will be looking forward to that day.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Does Hardcore Henry have a shot at beating BvS this weekend? Its been getting decent reviews to my complete surprise.
They'd all be teenagers and Cyborg would be an offensive Caribbean stereotype.
They'd all be teenagers and Cyborg would be an offensive Caribbean stereotype.
Discotheque
Banned
http://www.metacritic.com/movie/hardcore-henry
???
i give some movies the benefit of the doubt but this shit looks terrible.
4.1 mil on Tuesday is a 28.13% increase of the 3.2 million on Monday.
Thanks to the strong passionate #SupportDCFilms movement this increase should continue. With this trajectory we are looking at:
Wed: $5.25 mil
Thurs: $6.73 mil
Fri: $8.62 mil
Sat: $11.05 mil
Sun: $14.16 mil
Mon: $18.14 mil
Tues: $23.24 mil
Now that is momentum.
Discotheque
Banned
he took trash acting to the upper echelon with Elysium and Oldboy.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Was looking at the RT % score. My mistake.
You actually watched Oldboy?
broncobuster
Banned
It explains lots about Thanos, Nick Fury, and Scarlet Witch.
Discotheque
Banned
i like spike lee and the original movie. but yes it is one of my regrets forreal.
First film to $1 B domestic by the end of the month!
Jeffolation
Banned
I watched the Oldboy remake and I'm surprised to learn both Sharlto Copley and Samuel L. Jackson were in it.
boxoffice.com has their weekend predictions up.
They are predicting $24M for BvS and $15M for Zootopia. That's more or less what I think will happen as well, though I wouldn't be surprised to see BvS coming in at $22-23M.
They are predicting $17.5M for the Boss and $10.2M for Hardcore Henry.
Comedy openings are impossible to predict with much accuracy, but if things play out that way, BvS can at least claim a 3 week run at #1. Same as Deadpool and one more than Iron Man 3/Age of Ultron!
They are predicting $24M for BvS and $15M for Zootopia. That's more or less what I think will happen as well, though I wouldn't be surprised to see BvS coming in at $22-23M.
They are predicting $17.5M for the Boss and $10.2M for Hardcore Henry.
Comedy openings are impossible to predict with much accuracy, but if things play out that way, BvS can at least claim a 3 week run at #1. Same as Deadpool and one more than Iron Man 3/Age of Ultron!
boxoffice.com has their weekend predictions up.
They are predicting $24M for BvS and $15M for Zootopia. That's more or less what I think will happen as well, though I wouldn't be surprised to see BvS coming in at $22-23M.
They are predicting $17.5M for the Boss and $10.2M for Hardcore Henry.
Comedy openings are impossible to predict with much accuracy, but if things play out that way, BvS can at least claim a 3 week run at #1. Same as Deadpool and one more than Iron Man 3/Age of Ultron!
That actually seems a bit generous to BvS given how it's been tracking; I was thinking more along your estimate as well.
A note of amusement: BvS looks like it's going to catch up to Zootopia (it's currently $11m behind), but probably only for a few days. The cumulative streams are going to cross at some point over the weekend. It's possible the daily results cross back over as early as next week. Going to be a squeaker to see which ends on top.
BvS this coming weekend is barely going to edge what Zootopia did this past weekend.
Unless the Jungle Book destroys its late legs, Zootopia will probably top BvS domestically and worldwide.
EDIT: This late in its run, I don't see how it fails to make 3x whatever this weekend's take is. That would put it at least in the $340s.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
What films do have a chance to make $1B this and next year?
2016
CA: CW, Finding Dory, Rogue One, Fantastic Beasts, Suicide Squad, Independence Day, Zootopia, XMen Apocalypse
2017
Fast 8, GOTG2, Pirates 5, Despicable Me 3, Spider Man, Planet of the Apes 3, Justice League I, Star Wars VIII
Am I being too generous? Not saying they will all make it, but that they have a realistic chance
2016
CA: CW, Finding Dory, Rogue One, Fantastic Beasts, Suicide Squad, Independence Day, Zootopia, XMen Apocalypse
2017
Fast 8, GOTG2, Pirates 5, Despicable Me 3, Spider Man, Planet of the Apes 3, Justice League I, Star Wars VIII
Am I being too generous? Not saying they will all make it, but that they have a realistic chance
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Barring a miracle or amazing reviews, I would take Justice League off that list.
It feels so weird thinking that, but after BvS I don't see JL making $1b if Snyder is still attached.
I don't see Fantastic Beasts hitting a billion, or Suicide Squad, Independence Day or X-Men.
CW and Rogue One are locks. Dory and Zootopia, probably.
I'd be comfortable betting 2-1 odds against the bolded entries crossing $1B.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Betting hard on Apes huh?
You're being a bit generous. Suicide Squad seems unlikely. Rogue One and Fantastic Beasts would have to perform like their originating franchises despite being spinoffs. X-Men, Spiderman, GotG2, and Planet of the Apes would have to outperform their prior installments by a substantial amount. Finding Dory and Independence Day need to perform like their predecessors from a while back (and ID needs to land without Will Smith), which seems reasonably possible but I dunno. Civil War needs to perform like an Avengers movie instead of a Captain America movie, which also seems reasonable.
Fast 8, Despicable Me 3, Pirates 5, Star Wars 8 all seem very likely based on past performance. Justice League... who the hell knows at this point. Depends on how hard Snyder fucks it up.
It just doesn't strike me as very likely given the performance of the last film.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Shit, I read wrong. You are betting against those hitting $1b. I misread it as you expect them to hit it.
My bad. Move along.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
If Rogue One makes a billion it'll be because it's a Star Wars film that's getting a lot closer to a 35/65 domestic/international split, which so far as I can tell has never happened before. Usually it's 45/55. Return of the Jedi actually did get 35/65, but going the other way.
But I feel like Rogue One might play better overseas than Force Awakens might have done. Especially in China.
But I feel like Rogue One might play better overseas than Force Awakens might have done. Especially in China.
I think that Jedi was more like 70/30 before the special edition added ~40M to both sides of the domestic/international equation.
I wouldn't be surprised to see $400M+ domestic for Rogue One hot off the heels of a well received $935M numbered Star Wars film though.
crazy monkey
Banned
only the bolded will probably cross billions. Rest not so much. I highly doubg apes will even come close.
The chance of nothing crossing $1B this year is pretty much non-existent.
BvS' performance doesn't really say anything about other films going forward. The film opened huge on a holiday weekend, had mixed word of mouth at best, and tumbled over 65% worldwide the next weekend. It's playing like a larger version of Godzilla 2014.
You don't think Spider-Man will crack a billion? Assuming Civil War does great and is an awesome introduction to the new Spidey, I can see that momentum carrying over to the solo Spidey film, like Avengers did with Iron Man 3.
Then again, Spidey is still dealing with the stink of the Amazing films. It's going to be up to Civil War to shed that.
inb4 avatar quote
With Star Wars hype as high as it is coming off TFA, I'm pretty sure Rogue One will crack a billion, even if it's not a numbered entry.
Well, I'm sure someone does.
I think the bolded hit it.
Fantastic Beasts and GotG2 could but I wouldn't bet on it. Justice League who the hell knows.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Rogue One is one those really interesting films that's impossible to peg right now. Star Wars is an absolute force (lol) of nature in America and a few other markets, but (discounting the Clone Wars "movie") we've never had a real Star Wars spin-off before. TFA had an enormous amount of hype going into it that nothing is going to recapture for a long, long time, so already it's not going to make anywhere near that money, and being a spin-off is definitely going to hurt it to an extent. Honestly though I haven't the slightest idea how much though. The drop specifically attributable to spin-off status could be fairly small.
I think in markets where Star Wars isn't as big though, being a spin-off will help more than anything. China's been brought up, and I think Rogue One will definitely top TFA there, and not just because of the cast. TFA, while enjoyable to non-fans, really worked best for those who have enjoyed these movies for decades, in markets where the franchise is a huge part of pop culture. Being a spin-off, Rogue One, in theory, will be able to drop a lot of that baggage in other markets and could be pitched as a more or less completely new big budget, sci-fi action movie. Odds are it will be a very different kind of movie too, so they'll be able to pull in different groups that Star Wars may not be able to attract without built-in fan-bases.
Altogether, I think it will be big, but not anywhere near as big as TFA of course. I think we'll see losses in nearly every market TFA dominated in, and big gains elsewhere, and if I had to throw up a guess I'm gonna say something like $1.1b, maybe $1.2b global. Perhaps a bit optimistic, but I guess we'll see. I think it's just kind of hard for me to see a movie make $935m in NA alone, and its follow-up (even if it's an indirect one) not even manage much more than that globally though. Even if it's not necessarily unreasonable.
Honestly there's a pretty damn huge range of numbers I wouldn't be shocked by. Like, anything from $900m to $1.6b.
I think in markets where Star Wars isn't as big though, being a spin-off will help more than anything. China's been brought up, and I think Rogue One will definitely top TFA there, and not just because of the cast. TFA, while enjoyable to non-fans, really worked best for those who have enjoyed these movies for decades, in markets where the franchise is a huge part of pop culture. Being a spin-off, Rogue One, in theory, will be able to drop a lot of that baggage in other markets and could be pitched as a more or less completely new big budget, sci-fi action movie. Odds are it will be a very different kind of movie too, so they'll be able to pull in different groups that Star Wars may not be able to attract without built-in fan-bases.
Altogether, I think it will be big, but not anywhere near as big as TFA of course. I think we'll see losses in nearly every market TFA dominated in, and big gains elsewhere, and if I had to throw up a guess I'm gonna say something like $1.1b, maybe $1.2b global. Perhaps a bit optimistic, but I guess we'll see. I think it's just kind of hard for me to see a movie make $935m in NA alone, and its follow-up (even if it's an indirect one) not even manage much more than that globally though. Even if it's not necessarily unreasonable.
Honestly there's a pretty damn huge range of numbers I wouldn't be shocked by. Like, anything from $900m to $1.6b.
400 million WW tops.
My picks.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
$400m seems like a fairly reasonable guess, but with a lot of luck and good WoM I could see $600m+. Kind of a weird one though.
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