Meh, my guess is Shenmue will be okay. Not amazing, not great. Just okay. It's what happens when a vocal fanbase causes a dead franchise to rise from its grave and pretend it's alive again for a few moments. Speaking of which, my condolences to mega man fans.
I mean, people who don't like Shenmue are still not going to like Shenmue. Absolutely nobody is deluded enough to believe otherwise.
But I think the gaming landscape has sufficiently changed enough to accommodate Shenmue's style of game design (and please, nobody chip in on this comment unless you have played the much-refined and faster paced sequel).
A new generation of gamers have tastes that could easily align with what Shenmue is offering (the Gone Home, Life is Strange, Dear Esther, Ethan Carter crowd), but still reach a broader audience with its stronger action focus compared to those other titles I just mentioned. No idea if that will translate into good reviews, as
some publications and outlets have consigned themselves to negatively reporting on the game that might instill some level of
confirmation bias.
As for actual game quality, it's too early to tell (which makes it even dumber for some people to write the game off without a second of gameplay shown). There is at least a better team behind Shenmue III than MN9. Inafune is a speck of dirt on Yu Suzuki's shoes when you compare their careers, plus a number of people important people who helped form Shenmue are returning (as they have either since left SEGA or worked in non-game industries in the first place), and they've made smart hires of
young, fresh developers with a passion for the series. It's an uphill struggle, but it's certainly a more inspiring underdog story than many realise.
Inafune wanted a franchise to ride easily on (as he did continuously at Capcom), which has contributed heavily to how middle of the road and mediocre Mighty No 9 has turned out. Yu Suzuki has talked about how important originality will be in separating Shenmue III from other games on the market and in refining the template set 15 years ago by the previous game. Inafune fairly dispassionately wants to play on gamer's nostalgia for the one series he ever seemed to have any relevant input into.
There's ultimately a world of difference between how they approach their respective games.
Irregardless of how the final game actually turns out, it's clear,
above all else, that Shenmue III will be made with a significant amount of passion from top to bottom. It's not definable or quantifiable in a review score or on Metacritic, but it's something Mighty No 9 lacks, and it shows so much.