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[wumster3000]

I normally enjoy elections but the sooner this one is over the better.

I agree. These are the weakest two candidates in history. Both have major issues.

I'm still 100% on a Clinton win. Once the debates roll around win or lose both bases are going to be pumped up and the "enthusiasm gap" will be gone. The only time I will worry is if Hillary lays a complete egg and doesn't fight back at Trump's bullshit at the debates.

Polls will be the polls and I will really only care about them after the debates are done with. I have faith in the Clinton campaign operation.

Say what now? You realize that Trump is turning states left and right? Or Hillary is turning states red. My saving grace is that I live in California and most people can't stand that man here. You will find your pockets of supporters here and there, but for the most part, he's hated. Hillary is heading that way too.

 

[Rayis]

Fucking disgusting that Trump has a chance, if he ends up getting elected, well, we all deserve him and say goodbye to all the gains the progressive movement has accomplished these past 8 years.

 

[dramatis]

I agree. These are the weakest two candidates in history. Both have major issues.

Say what now? You realize that Trump is turning states left and right? Or Hillary is turning states red. My saving grace is that I live in California and most people can't stand that man here. You will find your pockets of supporters here and there, but for the most part, he's hated. Hillary is heading that way too.

What states are Trump turning right?

As far as I know, Hillary turned VA blue and Trump turned CO blue. The toss up states (OH, IA, NV, FL, NH, NC, etc.) are still toss up states. The Clinton campaign has been pushing into red territory (AZ, GA, MO). So what's bad here?

I've been surprised at the few snippets I've seen just how abrupt and charm devoid Clinton has been when I've heard the sound bites from her speeches. She's not very endearing, comes across more like your stern grandmother that forces you to go to church on a Sunday when you don't want to (from personal experience lol).

Said it a while back but people are so blind, Trump has every chance of winning. At every step of the way his unique character has made him more and more popular amongst the common plebs. Just like eejits like Farage or Boris Johnson during the catastrophic Brexit campaign. Be prepared for President Trump. And god help us all.

And yeah I truly think Sanders would be faring far better than Clinton right now. He really appealed to the youth. A youth that won't vote for Trump, and largely aren't all that fussed about voting for Clinton either. Should they vote for Clinton? Probably yeah. The same crap is better than the fucking shitshow of god knows what a Trump presidency could bring. Will they vote Clinton, will they vote? I suspect it may be crucial.

If America votes Trump then, like Brexit, the people will have gotten what they deserved.

Man, it's kind of remarkable how people get away with under the table sexism like this. "She sounds like your grandmother", "She's abrupt and charm devoid", yes, yes, those are indeed the most important qualities in a leader. Last I heard, Boris Johnson was quite charming and endearing to many people in the UK, and we saw how that turned out, hm?

Youth turnout is a poor gamble every time. After all, Sanders lost because he gambled on youth turnout. That's why he wouldn't be faring better than Hillary.

The good news for us is that we use this dorky institution called the electoral college to vote for president, compared to a raw majority vote like you guys did for Brexit.

 

[Shadybiz]

To quote Ian Malcolm...I'm fairly alarmed here.

 

[Calidor]

Trump is going to destroy her at the debates and things are going to get pretty interesting. GAF will meltdown

 

[RPGCrazied]

Trump is going to destroy her at the debates and things are going to get pretty interesting. GAF will meltdown

How is speaking like a 5 year old destroying her? Sad. Believe me.

 

[sflufan]

Trump is going to destroy her at the debates and things are going to get pretty interesting. GAF will meltdown

This is absolute nonsense.

He will not "destroy" her, because he will not have to. The bar for him is so low that all he has to do is not spontaneously combust on stage and he will "win".

 

[Hero_of_the_Day]

Trump is going to destroy her at the debates and things are going to get pretty interesting. GAF will meltdown

I'm less worried about GAF melting down and more worried about how fucked we are going to be with this insane guy at the head of the country and getting to pick someone for the supreme court.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

Trump is going to destroy her at the debates and things are going to get pretty interesting. GAF will meltdown

Not a chance in hell that will happen unless Trump learns how not to talk like a playground bully.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

What states are Trump turning right?

As far as I know, Hillary turned VA blue and Trump turned CO blue. The toss up states (OH, IA, NV, FL, NH, NC, etc.) are still toss up states. The Clinton campaign has been pushing into red territory (AZ, GA, MO). So what's bad here?

Her firewall seems to be PA and VA, which are holding very well. Trump can Ohio and FL and still lose as long as she has those two. It's kind of like the primary where she worked on a southern firewall and let Sanders run in mostly white states.

 

[wumster3000]

What states are Trump turning right?

As far as I know, Hillary turned VA blue and Trump turned CO blue. The toss up states (OH, IA, NV, FL, NH, NC, etc.) are still toss up states. The Clinton campaign has been pushing into red territory (AZ, GA, MO). So what's bad here?

What's bad is Hillary has managed to let a moron compete with her in this election. Let's be honest, Trump is a fucking idiot. I'd rather have a bag of plain Lays potato chips with hot sauce as president over Trump. He is not a bright person, but he's still within striking distance of her. Why? Given the lack of brain juice from her rival, this shouldn't be.

Obama, a biracial man with a name blacker than Jim Brown, won easily against Romney. Romney was no slouch. He's is what this country is used to seeing in the White House. Hillary can't even pull away from the walking turd Trump. Those states shouldn't be toss up states. She's not too good my friend.

 

[Shadybiz]

Trump is going to destroy her at the debates and things are going to get pretty interesting. GAF will meltdown

No. There is no way he actually wins the debates. She will slaughter him; I am certain. HOWEVER: The trick is getting people to actually watch the debates, and not rely on Facebook memes for their news.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

What's bad is Hillary has managed to let a moron compete with her in this election. Let's be honest, Trump is a fucking idiot. I'd rather have a bag of plain Lays potato chips with hot sauce than have Trump as president. He is not a bright person, but he's still within striking distance of her. Why? Given the lack of brain juice from her rival, this shouldn't be.

Obama, a biracial man with a name blacker the Jim Brown, won easily against Romney. Romney was no slouch. He's is what this country is used to seeing in the White House. Hillary can't even pull away from the walking turd Trump. Those states shouldn't be toss up states. She's not too good my friend.

At this point in the race in 2012, Obama and Romney were basically tied. After the first debate, Romney even slightly pulled ahead.

 

[Calidor]

Not a chance in hell that will happen unless Trump learns how not to talk like a playground bully.

But that's exactly what he needs to do in order to win, which is getting more votes than previously, he doesn't even need to be right or true about what he says. IMO time and again people are making the mistake of overestimating the electorate based on personal views.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

But that's exactly what he needs to do in order to win. IMO time and again people are making the mistake of overestimating the electorate based on personal views.

The last person to try and bully Clinton in a debate ended his political career.

 

[Velcro Fly]

as long as whoever we elect doesn't contribute to the physical destruction of the planet, we can recover from anything.

 

[sflufan]

At this point in the race in 2012, Obama and Romney were basically tied.

The comparison rings hollow. There are fundamental differences between the situations, especially in the individuals themselves.

Obama was generally considered "likable", Clinton is not.

Romney was your standard establishment Republican, Trump is most certainly not.

The unique dynamics of this race make comparisons to 2012 somewhat irrelevant.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

But that's exactly what he needs to do in order to win. IMO time and again people are making the mistake of overestimating the electorate based on personal views.

When has Trump ever done well in a one on one setting? He fails even with journalists airing softballs much less an opponent.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

But that's exactly what he needs to do in order to win, which is getting more votes than previously, he doesn't even need to be right or true about what he says. IMO time and again people are making the mistake of overestimating the electorate based on personal views.

The folks who would consider Trump "winning" based on him acting like a bully have been supporting him since the primaries.

Primaries are very different than general elections. You can't "win" a general election debate by acting like a bully.

 

[sflufan]

No. There is no way he actually wins the debates. She will slaughter him; I am certain. HOWEVER: The trick is getting people to actually watch the debates, and not rely on Facebook memes for their news.

You really aren't listening to what is being said, are you?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The comparison rings hollow. There are fundamental differences between the situations, especially in the individuals themselves.

Obama was generally considered "likable", Clinton is not.

Romney was your standard establishment Republican, Trump is most certainly not.

The unique dynamics of this race make comparisons to 2012 somewhat irrelevant.

The faster people get over that anyone, even Trump, was going to get 40% of the vote no matter what, the faster they can realize this election really isn't all that different from other elections.

The comparisons are completely valid.

 

[wumster3000]

No. There is no way he actually wins the debates. She will slaughter him; I am certain. HOWEVER: The trick is getting people to actually watch the debates, and not rely on Facebook memes for their news.

He will get his rectum blown out for sure, but it doesn't matter as much with his supporters. From a statistics standpoint, they say he has a lot of uneducated and older white people. They could care less.

We just had a bomb go off in NY and a stabbing in Minnisota where the accuser screamed Allah stuff. He uses scare tactics and his base his afraid. He can get his ass chewed out by Clinton at the debates and it wouldn't matter.

 

[A Human Becoming]

People (which I mostly mean Democrats) should be more concerned about the House and Senate. Regardless who wins they determine what legislation is passed. Best case scenario right now is Democrats end up with 49 seats + 2 Independents. Despite optimism from some people, the battle for the House continues to look bleak for the Dems:

Gerrymandering and other factors make it an uphill battle.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Her firewall seems to be PA and VA, which are holding very well. Trump can Ohio and FL and still lose as long as she has those two. It's kind of like the primary where she worked on a southern firewall and let Sanders run in mostly white states.

Those aren't great firewalls because Trump can plausibly win without winning either. If you start with Romney's 2012 map, Trump can win by getting:

• Ohio
• Florida
• Iowa
• Maine (2nd district)

all of which he's expected to win if the election was held today,

• Nevada

which he wouldn't but is incredibly close, and any ONE of:

• Colorado
• New Hampshire
• Pennsylvania
• Michigan

which all have current expected Democratic margins of 4 points or less, ordered from most to least likely. Given Trump can win by taking any one of these, none can really be considered firewalls.

Clinton's "firewall" states - as in, plausible swing states that Trump cannot win the presidency without also winning, and so therefore states that keep her safe from Trump if she is ahead in them - are were Ohio and Florida. Clinton's lost her firewalls over the last few days. She'd still likely win if the election was tomorrow, but the safety she was afforded by leads in those two states are gone.

Pennsylvania is not the state to feel comfortable about. Florida was. Ohio was. And you can't feel comfortable about those any more, not right now. We'll just have to wait for the debates.

 

[sflufan]

Anyone who had "optimism" that the Democrats could actually claim the House, even in a Clinton landslide, were probably huffing glue anyway.

 

[samn]

People (which I mostly mean Democrats) should be more concerned about the House and Senate. Regardless who wins they determine what legislation is passed. Best case scenario right now is Democrats end up with 49 seats + 2 Independents. Despite optimism from some people, the battle for the House continues to look bleak for the Dems:

Gerrymandering and other factors make it an uphill battle.

The House can't unilaterally start a nuclear war.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Anyone who had "optimism" that the Democrats could actually claim the House, even in a Clinton landslide, were probably huffing glue anyway.

I was always skeptical but I know I saw some GAFers flirt with the possibility.

President Clinton will be reduced to what Obama has mostly done for 3/4 of his tenor: foreign policy and Republicans passing the most minimal legislation.

The House can't unilaterally start a nuclear war.

Well no duh but the chances of Trump winning the presidency are smaller than Democrats taking the Senate (but probably larger than Democrats winning the House). The Presidency isn't the only important position. Checks and balances man.

 

[the-pi-guy]

I don't understand why. What's changed to make Trump look better over the last few weeks? Is this all just because Clinton caught pneumonia?

Probably.
There were basically conspiracy theories about Hillary being sick months ago. Her actually getting sick is fuel for the crazies.
My uncle is convinced she has MS, and one of my other uncle's (not sure if he's voting Trump or Johnson) is also convinced that the health of president is a super important issue, and that she's been hiding something.

 

[Kusagari]

Anyone who had "optimism" that the Democrats could actually claim the House, even in a Clinton landslide, were probably huffing glue anyway.

People got filled with hopium after those terrible polls for Trump after the DNC and Khan debacle. They were obviously never going to hold with Hillary having double digit leads nationally.

 

[makingmusic476]

People (which I mostly mean Democrats) should be more concerned about the House and Senate. Regardless who wins they determine what legislation is passed. Best case scenario right now is Democrats end up with 49 seats + 2 Independents. Despite optimism from some people, the battle for the House continues to look bleak for the Dems:

Gerrymandering and other factors make it an uphill battle.

I was optimistic about the House a few weeks ago. Not anymore. =(

 

[Makai]

Just wait for Stein and Johnson to drop out. Clinton will regain her lead.

What makes you think Johnson supporters will go to Hillary? Trump is very popular with Ron Paul libertarians.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

I was optimistic about the House a few weeks ago. Not anymore. =(

ebs and flows with general election, in two weeks Clinton will be like +6 again and the graph will sky rocket like the last two times

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

What makes you think Johnson supporters will go to Hillary? Trump is very popular with Ron Paul libertarians.

Johnson is pulling away a near equal amount from Clinton and Trump.

On one side, you have social liberals who want to be anti-establishment.

On the other side, you have republicans who have balls and know that Trump is fucking insane.

 

[A Human Becoming]

ebs and flows with general election, in two weeks Clinton will be like +6 again and the graph will sky rocket like the last two times

We don't know that for sure and +6 still might not be enough to take back the House.

 

[Nipo]

ebs and flows with general election, in two weeks Clinton will be like +6 again and the graph will sky rocket like the last two times

We'll see what the October surprise is. I'm thinking another Russian hack and embarrassing emails from dems.

 

[sflufan]

I was optimistic about the House a few weeks ago. Not anymore. =(

You had absolutely zero reason to be. Have you been paying attention to how gerrymandered House districts have become in the last several years? If you had, you would never have had such false "hope".

 

[NoblesseOblige]

Obama, a biracial man with a name blacker than Jim Brown, won easily against Romney. Romney was no slouch.

Firstly, you're remembering wrong. Secondly, that election was after Obama built 4 years of good will with the public as president.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

We don't know that for sure and +6 still might not be enough to take back the House.

I didn't say +6 would be enough to take the house, I just said the graph would skyrocket

 

[npm0925]

How is speaking like a 5 year old destroying her? Sad. Believe me.

The average American voter is low information (either through misinformation by channels like FOX News or lack of time/inclination), disillusioned (Hillary is the epitome of a career politician), and most likely resentful due to a steady decline in real income. So when Trump calls Hillary a liar on the debate stage, asks why we are defending deadbeat NATO allies when our infrastructure is crumbling, and promises to use his reputed business acumen to right this country, he is going to score major points with that demographic. Especially when the "moderator" won't do any sort of follow up. Believe me.

 

[makingmusic476]

You had absolutely zero reason to be. Have you been paying attention to how gerrymandered House districts have become in the last several years? If you had, you would never have had such false "hope".

I figured a strong enough Clinton lead could swing downballot races a few points in favor of Dems. They might not take the House, but they could at least get near even with Rs.

Alas.

 

[Hex]

I find it amazing that there are still so many people on this board with their heads stuffed up their asses who keep saying that there is nothing to worry about and nothing to see here.
Since the beginning it was "Trump will not even get the Republican nod" "Trump will fizzle out quickly" Trump has no chance".

The chance is very real, as there are so many variables out there.

 

[Frankfurter]

People (which I mostly mean Democrats) should be more concerned about the House and Senate. Regardless who wins they determine what legislation is passed. Best case scenario right now is Democrats end up with 49 seats + 2 Independents. Despite optimism from some people, the battle for the House continues to look bleak for the Dems:

Gerrymandering and other factors make it an uphill battle.

Do I read this right? Dems need an 8 point lead to likely win the house? At some point someone should just stand up and call this what it is: bullshit.

 

[wumster3000]

Firstly, you're remembering wrong. Secondly, that election was after Obama built 4 years of good will with the public as president.

What do you mean, I'm remembering wrong? I'm sure Obama is biracial and his name is pretty damn black. He beat Romney 332 - 206. When Florida popped up as blue in 2012, it was over. Romney was very likable and very smart. He had the look too. Remember he destroyed Obama in the first debate. A lot of people were high on Romney.

 

[danthefan]

Trump is going to destroy her at the debates and things are going to get pretty interesting. GAF will meltdown

He has do little detail on any policy matters that the only way he can "win" imo is just by shouting Clinton down and then claiming the win on Twitter afterwards. In a debate on the issues he clearly doesn't stand a chance. If people go for style over substance, well that's unfortunate.

 

[Lovely Salsa]

My bad

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

I find it amazing that there are still so many people on this board with their heads stuffed up their asses who keep saying that there is nothing to worry about and nothing to see here.
Since the beginning it was "Trump will not even get the Republican nod" "Trump will fizzle out quickly" Trump has no chance".

The chance is very real, as there are so many variables out there.

The fact that there are only two realistic choices for the Presidency, yes there is a real chance Trump can be President. No one denies that. The Electoral College(only thing that matters) is still on Clinton's side. Those living in reality know the time to "panic" is when Pennsylvania is consistently polling in Trump's favor. Not one or two polls but at least two weeks where it is red. That moment has yet to come and hopefully it never does.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Do I read this right? Dems need an 8 point lead to likely win the house? At some point someone should just stand up and call this what it is: bullshit.

And why is that?

One, it doesn't say "Dems win house", it says "Likely Dem Control". With an electoral victory near double digits, downtickets get an insane boost by association. People have already done the math and general simulations on what happens if election night ends on +6, +8, +10 type of blow outs, and it's entirely reasonable that under the higher end of the blow outs, the dems can take the house.

Debate is only eight days away guys, get ready.

 

[Dedede]

Do I read this right? Dems need an 8 point lead to likely win the house? At some point someone should just stand up and call this what it is: bullshit.

It's depressing. 2010 redistricting basically destroyed any chance of major progressive legislation passing Congress until 2024 minimum (first presidential election after 2020 redistricting, and that's presuming Dems do reasonably well in 2020...).

If Hillary wins with a Senate majority this year, maybe a test case against gerrymandering could make it to a liberal Supreme Court, and force different redistricting systems to be implemented nationwide. But I don't know the details of how this could work.

 

[Team Alucard]

What do you mean, I'm remembering wrong? I'm sure Obama is biracial and his name is pretty damn black. He beat Romney 332 - 206. When Florida popped up as blue in 2012, it was over. Romney was very lickable and very smart. He had the look too. Remember he destroyed Obama in the first debate. A lot of people were high on Romney.

Obama actually had a winning strategy against Romney.

He spent the entire summer hammering him as an out-of-touch elitist billionaire who could not relate to working class Americans. He successfully sold Romney as the man who was taking jobs and income out of the average American's pockets for his own personal gain. You might remember this phenomenal ad that all but buried Romney's chances at the presidency.

Clinton on the hand, has done nothing but play identity politics bingo the entire cycle. Rather than draw major attention to things like Trump University (the actual scandal, not the comments about Judge Curiel), or him stiffing contractors, or the 3400 lawsuits, nearly all of her attacks have been predicated upon whatever racist or sexist thing he has said recently. She is counting 100% on demographics to win her the election alone, not realizing that it is still entirely possible for her to lose with 95% Black support and 80% Hispanic support if Trump nets 65% or more of the white vote.

She has allowed Trump to position himself as a man of the people, and hero of the working class. As a result, he's getting unheard of support from blue collar white Americans. In most polls he is winning 70%+ of the non-college educated white demographic (Romney won 62% by comparison). That's why the race is so close despite Hillary having a lead in every other demographic.

 

[GloriousBagel]

Not a chance in hell that will happen unless Trump learns how not to talk like a playground bully.

Let's hope Clinton doesn't nearly cough to death on stage either.