if I had to bet, Ellie and Joel will surelydie like most of the cast in the 1st game
other guesses:
.- Billwill still be around, and make an appearance that mofo can take care of himself.
.- Tommyand co all dead attacked by hunters.
EDIT:
but I mostly expect a fresh new cast, that's just how the world of TLOU works
The idea of having a mostly new cast briefly intersect with Joel and Ellie got thrown around a lot. While I still wouldn't want to see the two at all that would be an alright approach.
Like, I understand the marketing dynamics here. Bringing back these characters gets a lot of sales. I get that. It still super disappointing and treads on the amazing ending of the first game.
So I hope you're right and we get a lot of fresh faces with only brief appearances by the old cast. But I suspect not.