Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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ZehDon said:
Software is a different story. Sony absolutely raised its prices due to its dominant position.
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No they did not. They adjusted the prices which had been the same for many years.

Which means games are cheaper then they have been a decade ago. While game development costs have been rising.
 
skit_data said:
Wow, really?
Gotta say, I'm actually surprised.

So much for the whole "it'll go through without a problem"-narrative if this is the case.

Edit: And it's FTC, not even EU or CMA? Good luck getting it through this side of the pond if FTC takes such a stance on the matter.
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Nah. I still believe is going through. In fact; if it dosen't I will cut one of my three hairy balls.
 
Thirty7ven said:
No disrespect to the Brazilians around here but anybody who follows politics in Brazil knows it's a corrupt shitshow. If Jim Ryan didn't arrive on the scene with a bag of cash hookers and blow he didn't even get past the door.
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I guess only those regulators that didn't fit your agenda got paid. The rest are working for the betterment of humanity.
GHG said:
Phil's bribery trip to the CMA seems to be paying off.
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Until they aren't.
 
ATVI stock is down 4.5% afterhours.



5iN9FSr.png


Will be interesting to see if any big buys come in on Friday when the markets reopen, this is a really harsh time to drop this news and then dump some stock ahead of a market close day and what is always a lower volume period for the markets.

It's also worth stating that Warren Buffet reduced his holdings in ATVI by 12% according to their last 13f.
 
from Idas
It matches what Capital Forum said: vote in December/January to challenge or not.

That interview from Lisa Khan just a day after the deal was announced was prophetic:

KHAN: But no, look, I think it takes courage. These are enormously well-resourced companies, they are not shy about deploying those resources. And I think in these moments, it's important to kind of ensure where we're really showing these companies but also showing the country that enforcers are not going to back down because of, you know, these companies flexing some muscle or kind of trying to intimidate us. And so I think those are the types of lessons that we're trying to learn looking back over the last decade.

SWISHER: So you're not scared of losing necessarily is that's got to be a calculus as we can't win this or we we've got to be cautious because if we lose too many, we'll lose what.

KHAN: It's a hard assessment to make. But I think it's certainly true that deciding when moving forward and taking action is still worth it. Even if it's not a slam dunk case, even if there is a risk you might lose, there can be enormously, they can be enormous benefits from taking that risk. You might win, right, you lose all the shots you don't take. But I think what we can see is that inaction after inaction after inaction can have severe costs. And that's what we're really trying to reverse.

The FTC is very likely suing.

The most interesting question is what will MS do.
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feynoob said:
MS just need to shut up. The more they open their mouth, the more they bring trouble to themselves.
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I'm not so certain of your qualifications for suggesting Microsoft should "shut up" about its own deal. How many multi-billion dollar deals have you closed successfully under heavy scrutiny by major regulators worldwide? Nothing about this deal, so far, has gone outside Microsoft's expected completion timeline of end of fiscal year 2023. You do realize that, correct? Maybe once we get close to that end of June 2023 timeline and things appear to be in trouble, then and only then should team #dealfailure have reason to start thinking about popping the champagne.

Till then, not a single thing has changed materially. The price tag ensured this would get massive scrutiny. The deal scaring the living shit out of Sony is all that Sony is successfully putting out there, and that many are picking up and treating as if the deal is in "trouble." It is not, and has never been.

Even the people some are celebrating right now know not to fully doubt the deal.



He also bizarrely thinks Activision's stock price is somehow only impacted by whether or not Wall Street believes the deal will close. The stock price is impacted by factors far beyond just whether or not the deal will close. There is economic uncertainty tied to the US economy, inflation and what the FED will do on interest rates. Many companies have begun cutting back on hiring and letting go employees. Multiple stocks are down this year. It isn't just Activision, and I'm sure many other stocks that are down don't all have pending billion-dollar acquisitions.

The FTC does not have the power to stop deals singlehandedly. That is not a power they possess. They can only sue to block mergers. They still have to win in court to successfully do so in the United States of America. Do you understand this? They need to get a judge to agree with them. A judge is not going to side with the FTC in the case of this Activision deal, particularly with Microsoft committing to not taking Call of Duty off Playstation.

What's most likely to happen is this. Microsoft was always prepared to make concessions (emphasis on reasonable concessions).



Nvidia backed down from its ARM purchase with the threat of FTC action because they knew they had a losing case. Everybody knew this. Knowing the global importance of ARM, and that the purchase of ARM would hand Nvidia the entire mobile market in one swoop, Nvidia was in a very bad place to defend that lawsuit. No such market power exists anywhere in the entire Activision Blizzard deal, which is why Microsoft will go to court and fight the FTC if they have to.

I really don't think some people comprehend yet just how important this deal is to Microsoft, and how far they're prepared to go. Keep in mind what I'm about to say is purely hypothetical, but I think the activision deal is important enough to Microsoft that it's willing to restrict future Activision Blizzard games to the United States only should major regulators like the EU and CMA both go against the deal. If that sounds crazy, don't worry, it will never happen because I just don't see this deal actually being blocked.
 
ZehDon said:
Sony, due to its dominant position, is able to raise its hardware prices - price increases that are triggered by the economic storm - knowing that it won't lose sales. This is great for Sony, but its harmful for consumers - and it's an option not really available to its competitors if they want to compete.
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It's not though, it's beneficial to MS. MS could raise its price now. It even predicts supply constraints meaning MS can. It doesn't because it knows it helps it compete better and can handle the short term loss better ie it knows Sony raising its price and MS remaining lower isn't without effect, contrary to what MS claim.

ZehDon said:
And now, people are defending its price increase while other companies follow Sony's lead - proving Sony was correct. Looking at Sony's financials, it's posted healthy, and even record breaking, profits with its PlayStation division for quite some time. A software price increase simply wasn't required or even justified - but Sony knew it had built up such a windfall from the PS4 that now was the time to cash in. And to prime their consumers, they started charging upgrade fees for cross-gen games, making sure their customers couldn't miss the message: next-gen costs more. Activision, EA, Ubisoft; they're just stepping through the breach Sony created.
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Where are you getting the idea that Sony created this "breach"? The first announced $70 next gen version of a game was from 2K games on Xbox Series and PS5. Activision, and EA released $70 games on Xbox and PS5 at the same time as Sony and everyone else too. If you actually think about what you are saying you would realise that it makes absolutely no sense because next gen versions of these publishers games on xbox were $70 too. So how was it abusing a dominant position exactly?

The only reason MS didn't raise game prices for their published games was because they weren't really pushing game sales to begin with but pushing their subscription day 1 releases. Their game sales were low and the delta would be low. They were barely even releasing many games that warranted a $70 pricetag to begin with anyway. Their business model was completely different. Most other publishers did $70 next gen games though and to suggest this is because of a dominant position is weird. The games would be competing with other games and xbox next gen games were $70 too. If Sony specifically were asking for $10 from other publishers games on PS5 you would have a point but currently what you are suggesting is ludicrous.

ZehDon said:
That all of them were and are posting very healthy profits, and all choosing to hike their prices following Sony's move, shows that Sony's dominant position combined with its willingness to wield its influence is deeply harmful for consumers. For Sony to turn around and basically say "if you let Microsoft compete with us by buying ABK, they'll raise prices which will hurt gamers!" is fucking hilarious given that Sony literally just did that.
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Only if you ignore any and all nuance in the matter.
 
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SenjutsuSage said:
I'm not so certain of your qualifications for suggesting Microsoft should "shut up" about its own deal. How many multi-billion dollar deals have you closed successfully under heavy scrutiny by major regulators worldwide? Nothing about this deal, so far, has gone outside Microsoft's expected completion timeline of end of fiscal year 2023. You do realize that, correct? Maybe once we get close to that end of June 2023 timeline and things appear to be in trouble, then and only then should team #dealfailure have reason to start thinking about popping the champagne.

Till then, not a single thing has changed materially. The price tag ensured this would get massive scrutiny. The deal scaring the living shit out of Sony is all that Sony is successfully putting out there, and that many are picking up and treating as if the deal is in "trouble." It is not, and has never been.

Even the people some are celebrating right now know not to fully doubt the deal.



He also bizarrely thinks Activision's stock price is somehow only impacted by whether or not Wall Street believes the deal will close. The stock price is impacted by factors far beyond just whether or not the deal will close. There is economic uncertainty tied to the US economy, inflation and what the FED will do on interest rates. Many companies have begun cutting back on hiring and letting go employees. Multiple stocks are down this year. It isn't just Activision, and I'm sure many other stocks that are down don't all have pending billion-dollar acquisitions.

The FTC does not have the power to stop deals singlehandedly. That is not a power they possess. They can only sue to block mergers. They still have to win in court to successfully do so in the United States of America. Do you understand this? They need to get a judge to agree with them. A judge is not going to side with the FTC in the case of this Activision deal, particularly with Microsoft committing to not taking Call of Duty off Playstation.

What's most likely to happen is this. Microsoft was always prepared to make concessions (emphasis on reasonable concessions).



Nvidia backed down from its ARM purchase with the threat of FTC action because they knew they had a losing case. Everybody knew this. Knowing the global importance of ARM, and that the purchase of ARM would hand Nvidia the entire mobile market in one swoop, Nvidia was in a very bad place to defend that lawsuit. No such market power exists anywhere in the entire Activision Blizzard deal, which is why Microsoft will go to court and fight the FTC if they have to.

I really don't think some people comprehend yet just how important this deal is to Microsoft, and how far they're prepared to go. Keep in mind what I'm about to say is purely hypothetical, but I think the activision deal is important enough to Microsoft that it's willing to restrict future Activision Blizzard games to the United States only should major regulators like the EU and CMA both go against the deal. If that sounds crazy, don't worry, it will never happen because I just don't see this deal actually being blocked.
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That is how much I care.
Happy Hour Drinking GIF


All I am getting from this deal, is enough clown entertainment to last me, during this winter.
 
SenjutsuSage said:
that it's willing to restrict future Activision Blizzard games to the United States only should major regulators like the EU and CMA both go against the deal. If that sounds crazy, don't worry, it will never happen because I just don't see this deal actually being blocked.
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Bruh MS can't do businees in the EU or UK period if that's the route they went down.

I do worry about what this deal is doing to your mental health
 
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Bernkastel said:
Timed exclusivity has existed since a long ago, before either one entered the console space.
But these GAAS games content exclusivity deals where a part of the game is locked to one platform, making one version superior. MS has not done any deal like that since The Division (where some DLC was timed for a month).
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And true to their words, they have not paid for any platform exclusive content since then. Meanwhile
[/URL][/URL][/URL]
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Not "true to their word" they absolutely did have exclusive content on "GAAS games" (that you even had to pay for)

https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2017/12...battlegrounds-limited-edition-cosmetic-packs/

In a game that they paid to keep exclusive for a year too
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/pubgs-xbox-one-exclusivity-period-may-get-extended/1100-6453770/

Just because they changed strategy in mid 2017 to acquisitions galore doesn't change the fact that they did them. They still do timed exclusive whole games too.
 
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feynoob said:
That is how much I care.
Happy Hour Drinking GIF


All I am getting from this deal, is enough clown entertainment to last me, during this winter.
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Oh no, you care alright. You're one of the most pro kill the deal people on the entire gaming internet. Your contributions to this thread alone are evidence of that. You challenge everything suggesting the deal may/will be approved. You lean heavily towards wanting it to fail. So it's about more than just entertainment for you. You're committed to a specific outcome. I as a huge Xbox and game pass fan obviously wants it go through.
 
Ass of Can Whooping said:
Bruh MS can't do businees in the EU or UK period if that's the route they went down.

I do worry about what this deal is doing to your mental health
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He did the same thing with Halo Infinite. I criticized the lack of biome diversity in the campaign footage they showed and in response he wrote a novel about reading official Halo blogs. Then the game came out and the campaign didn't have any biome diversity. I legitimately can't tell if there's something wrong with him or if he's trolling.
 
Mind boggling that the company coming last in an industry is having trouble making an acquisition that would still have them last in the industry largely because of the lobbying of the dominant market leader. I think this deal will go through, just a big noisy fight from the incumbents on the way as its threatens their profits and market power.
 
SenjutsuSage said:
Oh no, you care alright. You're one of the most pro kill the deal people on the entire gaming internet. Your contributions to this thread alone are evidence of that. You challenge everything suggesting the deal may/will be approved. You lean heavily towards wanting it to fail. So it's about more than just entertainment for you. You're committed to a specific outcome. I as a huge Xbox and game pass fan obviously wants it go through.
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GHG GHG I am dead here:messenger_tears_of_joy:.
 
SenjutsuSage said:
He also bizarrely thinks Activision's stock price is somehow only impacted by whether or not Wall Street believes the deal will close. The stock price is impacted by factors far beyond just whether or not the deal will close. There is economic uncertainty tied to the US economy, inflation and what the FED will do on interest rates. Many companies have begun cutting back on hiring and letting go employees. Multiple stocks are down this year. It isn't just Activision, and I'm sure many other stocks that are down don't all have pending billion-dollar acquisitions.
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This is some extreme copium. The stock is now down 4.7% after-hours due to this news while the overall market is flat afterhours (0.12% up). And you want to tell people it's being impacted by other factors?

Since the deal was announced the beta of the stock plummeted. Prior to the deal typically it's beta was around 0.5 (for every percent the general market moves in either direction ATVI will move half of that) whereas since the announcement of the deal the beta plummeted to 0.03. It now does it's own thing and by and large the stock is shielded from the volatility in the overall market due to this deal. This stock would have likely been crushed by the weight of the rest of the market this year if the deal didn't get announced. And let me say this, if you don't know what beta is then you shouldn't be fucking with arbitrage trades.
 
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Bonsaibäumchen said:
No they did not. They adjusted the prices which had been the same for many years.

Which means games are cheaper then they have been a decade ago. While game development costs have been rising.
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LOL they "adjusted" prices and not raised them.

Sorry that costs have not risen commensurate to profits...oh wait, they just had record breaking profits in gaming.
 
GHG said:
ATVI stock is down 4.5% afterhours.

Will be interesting to see if any big buys come in on Friday when the markets reopen, this is a really harsh time to drop this news and then dump some stock ahead of a market close day and what is always a lower volume period for the markets.

It's also worth stating that Warren Buffet reduced his holdings in ATVI by 12% according to their last 13f.
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This is why I follow your posts. Always informative and based on facts.

When the news broke I checked the after hours action to see if the stock price had been effected. Last I checked it was down $2.30. If this news goes public it'll be shorted to $70. If the deal fails we're heading back to $50 possibly the old resistance of $41

$41 becomes an acquisition bidding war.
 
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