Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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ChiefDada

Member
Per Idas:

There is still a bit of hope for MS:

18. Microsoft has, however, informed us of existing and potential contractual arrangements with third-party platforms relating to access to Call of Duty. Accordingly, while none of the circumstances in which the CMA would select a behavioural remedy as the primary source of remedial action in a merger investigation (as summarised in paragraph 15 above) appear to be present, the CMA will also consider a behavioural access remedy as a possible remedy.

19. Access remedies are a form of behavioural remedy which seek to maintain or restore competition by enabling competitors to have access on appropriate terms to the products and facilities of a merger entity that they require to remain competitive. Access remedies normally require an access commitment which is set out in significant detail so that both customers and monitoring agencies can enforce compliance effectively. In this case, an access remedy would look to ensure third party access to Activision Blizzard, Inc's content that is necessary to remedy the provisional SLCs.

20. We consider in further detail below each of the possible remedies on which views are sought. More generally, the CMA will consider any other practicable remedies that the Parties, or any interested third parties, may propose that could be effective in addressing the SLCs and/or any resulting adverse effects.

Lol, who is this Idas clown and why did he pass on bolding these parts:

accordingly, while none of the circumstances in which the CMA would select a behavioural remedy as the primary source of remedial action in a merger investigation (as summarised in paragraph 15 above) appear to be present

Aka based on what the CMA has seen, reviewed, and understand regarding the deal, they will not accept a behavioral remedy. Some new revelation out of left field would have to emerge. Of course the CMA will always be open to behavioral remedies but they're letting Microsoft know it won't be sufficient here.

Access remedies normally require an access commitment which is set out in significant detail so that both customers and monitoring agencies can enforce compliance effectively.

In other words, those "10yr commitment" stunts Microsoft kept broadcasting in public isn't going to fly with the CMA. They need to be super specific, which Microsoft is notoriously and purposefully awful at. First, they will need to conjure an airtight agreement that, at minimum, guarantees CoD in perpetuity to PlayStation and no detriments stemming from Microsoft's ownership. Any deviation from such a contractual agreement will result in them facing stiff financial penalties. Of course Microsoft won't agree to this.

The deal is dead folks. It's time to move on. Hopefully Microsoft focuses on developing their 1st party production pipeline going forward, but based on the embarrassing PR we've seen over the past weeks and months, I wouldn't hold my breath.
 

Elios83

Member
The CMA suggested either selling the division or selling Call of Duty to get the deal through.

Sony doesn't have to accept the 10-year commitment, but if that did, then they would possibly reduce the CMA's concerns because their competitor (Sony) is not concerned beyond the 10-year deal.

Based on what the CMA wants, it's going to take a lot more than just a 10-year deal.
Yes I see that some people want to delude themselves until the end.
CMA won't be fooled by the 10 years bullshit that MS offered and Sony already refused multiple times.
It has to be something equivalent to giving up control on COD and any chance it can be used to advantage their platforms (*including* Gamepass).

The issue is not the way this is achieved, it's if Microsoft is willing to give up on the main reason they wanted to do this deal anyway.
We'll find out by the end of this month.
 
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Smoke6

Member
Ten years would be over an entire console generation. If Sony can't come up with a way to offset the potential loss of revenue from losing COD in ten years then it deserves to take the impact. The market doesn't exist to prop up Sony's business model.
Same could be said for MS right? Obviously they don’t have what it takes to make their own so they decided to just buy the whole company correct?

FOH with that shit!

How the fuck you just ignore why they’re being bought in the first place and lay it all on Sony back when they’ve been the ones innovating more than MS ever has since they’ve been in the console business outside of online community features
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
Microsoft's money hatting is about getting more games on Game Pass so they are targeting the AA market rather than AAA as that isn't feasible for a subscription service. Doesn't make it any less money hatting though.

Agree'd but there is a difference between smaller studios / Games that may need the funding and game pass is a huge opportunity compared to one of the most well known franchises in history.
 

Lunarorbit

Gold Member
George Costanza Shrug GIF
This is me. I just wish it would get resolved one way or another cause at the end of the day this is a huge nothing burger.
 

Sony

Nintendo
Lol, who is this Idas clown and why did he pass on bolding these parts:



Aka based on what the CMA has seen, reviewed, and understand regarding the deal, they will not accept a behavioral remedy. Some new revelation out of left field would have to emerge. Of course the CMA will always be open to behavioral remedies but they're letting Microsoft know it won't be sufficient here.



In other words, those "10yr commitment" stunts Microsoft kept broadcasting in public isn't going to fly with the CMA. They need to be super specific, which Microsoft is notoriously and purposefully awful at. First, they will need to conjure an airtight agreement that, at minimum, guarantees CoD in perpetuity to PlayStation and no detriments stemming from Microsoft's ownership. Any deviation from such a contractual agreement will result in them facing stiff financial penalties. Of course Microsoft won't agree to this.

The deal is dead folks. It's time to move on. Hopefully Microsoft focuses on developing their 1st party production pipeline going forward, but based on the embarrassing PR we've seen over the past weeks and months, I wouldn't hold my breath.

1. I would hardly call Idas a clown or imply he's biased. He's done tremendeous work for us forum dwellers in disecting all the legal documents.
2. They are very contradictory in their findings, stating indeed that the circumstances for accepting behavioral remedies are not present, they will discuss possible behavioral remedies. If they wouldn't accept behavioral remedies, they wouldn't leave the door open for it.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Agree'd but there is a difference between smaller studios / Games that may need the funding and game pass is a huge opportunity compared to one of the most well known franchises in history.

If this was about helping "smaller studios" then Microsoft could pay them to be on Game Pass but also not keep them from being on other platforms at the same time. But Game Pass isn't a charity so that's not how it works. Microsoft is targeting these games to fill out their service. Let's not make them out to be Robin Hood.
 

GHG

Gold Member
Agree'd but there is a difference between smaller studios / Games that may need the funding and game pass is a huge opportunity compared to one of the most well known franchises in history.

The problem that Xbox now have is self manufactured - they won't do any sort of timed or permanent third party exclusive deal without it also including terms for that game being available on gamepass day one.

Because of that it means the cost of doing said deals rises dramatically and in addition it means that a number of AAA games will be completely off-limits due to publishers not wanting the value and perception of their important IP being compromised.
 

Freeman76

Member
So in 10 years everything falls apart? It’s like they’re hoping nobody sees that part.

I don’t think this deal is good for the industry and the part about innovation was interesting. The AAA gaming industry has almost no innovation as it is, this deal going through will mean even less I imagine from MS as they’ll have all their bases covered with regard to genres. They will basically just become even more of a sequel machine.


Not a chance this will happen. They know they need to produce better games in order to compete, and seem pretty commited to that.

This deal won't change anything apart from the fact MS will own the rights to some serious well established IPs.

I know GAF tends to hate on MS but some of the shit people type is just ridiculous.
 

Dick Jones

Banned
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So the CMA couldnt dig up anything better or a single piece of evidence and all they have is unfounded speculations that have already been adressed by offering 10 years of parity on content, pricing, features, quality and playability.

Microsoft lawyers should have an easy time dealing with these baseless concerns, theres no way CMA can stop this if they have no real arguments if they go to court. They are doign a great job delaying it though.
They needed help filling out and serving subpeonas.
 

Lasha

Member
Same could be said for MS right? Obviously they don’t have what it takes to make their own so they decided to just buy the whole company correct?

FOH with that shit!

How the fuck you just ignore why they’re being bought in the first place and lay it all on Sony back when they’ve been the ones innovating more than MS ever has since they’ve been in the console business outside of online community features

Microsoft has to spend a significant portion of its cash to purchase the game and then actually produce COD. Its a significant amount of risk and exposure. Sony wants to continue taking its economic rent from activision without being required to take on the risk of running COD. A ten year deal allows Sony to take its cut for long enough to refine its business model so that it can survive survive without depending on another company's products.
 
The CMA suggested either selling the division or selling Call of Duty to get the deal through.

Sony doesn't have to accept the 10-year commitment, but if that did, then they would possibly reduce the CMA's concerns because their competitor (Sony) is not concerned beyond the 10-year deal.

Based on what the CMA wants, it's going to take a lot more than just a 10-year deal.
Not sure Sony gets to ‘accept’ anything here.
 
I think its better for Microsoft for the deal to fail. I think its been a massive headache for them that it hasn't gone the way they wanted. Plus, do they really want more studios when they can't properly manage what they already have? It's already bloated as it is. Microsoft should Forget Activision and double down on what they already have.
 
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Thirty7ven

Banned
I see MS response is that 10 years of COD should do it. I don’t see how that would address the CMAs concerns at all. The language doesn’t seem to match.

But we’ll see.
 
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jm89

Member
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It's not. MS still hasn't taken action like Sony.
Are you kidding me right now?

The last big Xbox show last June all i could read was "Console Launch Exclusive" including the fact Xbox has a 2 day embargo for all multiplatform announcements in there, meaning publishers could only mention other platforms for the 3rd party announcements 2 or 3 days after their big show to try and appear they had even more exclusives then they actually did.

This was talked about here and everything. Not even Sony ever pulled this shit before.

MS are just bad at choosing their partnerships...which is why they are desperate to find their own Genshin Impact. But clearly they still do with stuff like High On Life. They just don't go "viral" the same way Stray or Fall Guys do for Sony.

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FTC wanting a block, and CMA asking for structural remedies and EC probably also asking for remedies. But his more confident.....

This 4d chess is hurting my head

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That's from 12 days ago...
 
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Interfectum

Member
What a drama queen. Good Lord they’re still gonna have 70 Billion they were planning to spend. Plenty of money to build their own COD In 10 years.

:messenger_sunglasses:
Probably not. The $70 billion was greenlit on the promise that Xbox could buy its way into mobile gaming. The fantasies that they can take that $70 billion and buy a ton of other AAA console based studios is just that... a fantasy. If the deal falls through the money is gone for that division.
 
The answer is simple for Microsoft. CMA said they would typically not accept behavioral remedies, but says they are open to them as long as they're fully enforceable and ironclad.

So Microsoft must commit to allowing ALL ABK content to be multi-platform for up to 20 years, see if CMA will accept that. If not, make it permanent.

All ABK content must be fully available to license and use to all cloud gaming competitors and multi-game subscription competitors. Nvidia, Sony, any and everybody.

I don't know if Microsoft has to allow new COD titles day one on PS+ day one (up to a year, then Sony has to pay to extend perhaps?), but if necessary, do that also. There is no harm to the deal in allowing that.

After all, this deal is far more important for the future of Microsoft and Game Pass than just a fanboy "flawless" victory. So put it all on the table in a way that is undeniable, and make sure it's totally enforceable.

Game Pass with its other day one offerings can easily compete with other offerings as long as Microsoft allows full access licensing of ABK titles. The full catalog will still be available to Microsoft free of charge. They just must allow others to be able to license them also. Deal is far from dead if Microsoft is willing, which I think they will be. CMA has given them an out, but they clearly won't allow any around the edges stuff. Every agreement must be ironclad.

I view this as a very aggressive "yes, but no funny business on your behavioral remedy prescriptions. Make them ironclad or we will block it or require divesting of Activision or Blizzard."
 

ChiefDada

Member
1. I would hardly call Idas a clown or imply he's biased. He's done tremendeous work for us forum dwellers in disecting all the legal documents.

He chose to draw attention to select comments that, in isolation, appear to show Microsoft in a stronger position than they really are with this deal. Those comments he left out provided crucial context of the CMAs message.


2. They are very contradictory in their findings, stating indeed that the circumstances for accepting behavioral remedies are not present, they will discuss possible behavioral remedies. If they wouldn't accept behavioral remedies, they wouldn't leave the door open for it.

Again, they will always be open to behavioral remedies. They are letting the public know that at present, they wouldn't suffice.
 

M16

Member
Activision aims to help UK regulator 'better understand our industry'

"Call of Duty" maker Activision Blizzard said on Wednesday it hoped it could help Britain's competition regulator better understand the gaming industry after it said the acquisition of Activision Blizzard by Microsoft could harm gamers.

"These are provisional findings, which means the CMA sets forth its concerns in writing, and both parties have a chance to respond," a spokesperson said.

"We hope between now and April we will be able to help the CMA better understand our industry to ensure they can achieve their stated mandate to promote an environment where people can be confident they are getting great choices and fair deals, where competitive, fair-dealing business can innovate and thrive, and where the whole UK economy can grow productively and sustainably."

 

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
ABK owns a mountain of historic IP aside from the obvious big successes, the overwhelming majority of which were never Xbox exclusive.
ABK under MS ownership would basically bury 44 years of console gaming history under the control of a company with no incentive to share that wealth outside their own platform control and ecosystem.

Let's be honest, part of the premium of ownership is the ability to withhold access from others. And I see no reason why MS would elect not to exercise that right if it serves their business interests. This ability to act anti-competitively is a spectre that's going to loom over the deal unless specific assurances are made guaranteeing this can never be the case, while at the same time being a thing that if remediated would fundamentally changes the value to MS of the acquisition.

I suspect this is going to break the deal.
 
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