Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
"Nowhere does CMA even mention Nintendo"

You don't say.

Will Smith Reaction GIF
A Nintendo is a Nintendo.
 
I guess the real question here is,. since the deal looks like it may not go through at all or face major changes in order to go through, what happens after? MS was willing to spend $70b USD to acquire ABK which indicates they have a long term investment for Xbox. If that money doesn't go to this deal, then where? I'm almost more concerned about the state of the market IF the deal falls through because money is king dick in the world of business, and smaller buyouts or major timed deals seems like an avenue.
 

Alesimage

Banned
I guess the real question here is,. since the deal looks like it may not go through at all or face major changes in order to go through, what happens after? MS was willing to spend $70b USD to acquire ABK which indicates they have a long term investment for Xbox. If that money doesn't go to this deal, then where? I'm almost more concerned about the state of the market IF the deal falls through because money is king dick in the world of business, and smaller buyouts or major timed deals seems like an avenue.
They will spend it on other publishers, studios, ips
 
Looks like everyone with a brain called it yesterday when the clown CEOs went on national TV yesterday to embarrass themselves.

Death Valley? More like Death Watch for SenjutsuSage SenjutsuSage and @CatLady

Another demerit for another person who didn't carefully read what the CMA actually said...

They thrown the door WIDE open to closing this deal WITHOUT divesting if the commitments are good enough, easy to monitor and properly enforceable.

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Yeah. There is nothing about this situation that is all that good for Microsoft. The absolute best they can hope for is that the CMA agrees to a behavioral remedy that basically sees the single biggest reason for owning Activision very much neutered for potentially decades to come. But regulators aren't fond of such remedies because of all the work and oversight it takes for a long period of time to ensure the remedy is being honored. Structural remedies are much easier, decisive, and impactful to apply. Which is most likely where the CMA will take this. In which case the $70 billion Microsoft is paying wouldn't be worth it and they'd honestly be complete fools to pay it.

How is the advantage neutered? All Activision Blizzard games in Game Pass day one? Their whole back catalog? This deal is about Game Pass. It's always been about game pass.

It doesn't hurt Microsoft if games are multi-platform or if other cloud gaming and multi-game subscriptions are allowed to license Activision Blizzard games. This is all win, win. These things must be paid for. When someone uses geforce now they have to first buy the game.

They get to combine ABK in Game Pass with Bethesda and XGS games and other third parties.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
I guess the real question here is,. since the deal looks like it may not go through at all or face major changes in order to go through, what happens after? MS was willing to spend $70b USD to acquire ABK which indicates they have a long term investment for Xbox. If that money doesn't go to this deal, then where? I'm almost more concerned about the state of the market IF the deal falls through because money is king dick in the world of business, and smaller buyouts or major timed deals seems like an avenue.
They’re rumoured to be cost cutting in all debts this year, so I doubt they will just keep $70b available for acquiring everything else. Probably be done on a case by case basis.
 

Three

Member
I don’t think I’ve seen what you’re referring to, so I’ll just assume you’re right, and that would be odd.

My biggest takeaway from today’s provisional report is how contradictory it is - it seems to start off with a strong message, but undercuts itself throughout.

“It’s definitely option A and and we won’t even consider Option B under any circumstance. Unless we do. Which we might.”

Wishy washy and very political (unsurprisingly I guess).
It's not wishy washy. They say that these are their conclusions and the remedies they would accept but they make it clear that they are open to proposals from the parties which they would consider.

It just means this is what we would want but we will still hear you out and investigate if you have some new proposal. They might not find those adequate either but they are always open to them.
 

ToadMan

Member
That's all business deals, nobody deals in perpetuate. You can easily imagine why.

But an acquisition is exactly that - in perpetuity.

The answer is simple for Microsoft. CMA said they would typically not accept behavioral remedies, but says they are open to them as long as they're fully enforceable and ironclad.

So Microsoft must commit to allowing ALL ABK content to be multi-platform for up to 20 years, see if CMA will accept that. If not, make it permanent.

All ABK content must be fully available to license and use to all cloud gaming competitors and multi-game subscription competitors. Nvidia, Sony, any and everybody.

I don't know if Microsoft has to allow new COD titles day one on PS+ day one (up to a year, then Sony has to pay to extend perhaps?), but if necessary, do that also. There is no harm to the deal in allowing that.

After all, this deal is far more important for the future of Microsoft and Game Pass than just a fanboy "flawless" victory. So put it all on the table in a way that is undeniable, and make sure it's totally enforceable.

Game Pass with its other day one offerings can easily compete with other offerings as long as Microsoft allows full access licensing of ABK titles. The full catalog will still be available to Microsoft free of charge. They just must allow others to be able to license them also. Deal is far from dead if Microsoft is willing, which I think they will be. CMA has given them an out, but they clearly won't allow any around the edges stuff. Every agreement must be ironclad.

I view this as a very aggressive "yes, but no funny business on your behavioral remedy prescriptions. Make them ironclad or we will block it or require divesting of Activision or Blizzard."

Totally agree.

But I suspect MS won’t wish to pay $70bn for ABK if this was the condition.

ABK was worth $70bn if it forced gamers off of other platforms and on to MS’s where they could be monetised without alternatives. As it happens that’s also what the regulators noticed.
 
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Another demerit for another person who didn't carefully read what the CMA actually said...

They thrown the door WIDE open to closing this deal WITHOUT divesting if the commitments are good enough, easy to monitor and properly enforceable.

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chJp3Cc.png


PHAaSNB.jpg



How is the advantage neutered? All Activision Blizzard games in Game Pass day one? Their whole back catalog? This deal is about Game Pass. It's always been about game pass.

It doesn't hurt Microsoft if games are multi-platform or if other cloud gaming and multi-game subscriptions are allowed to license Activision Blizzard games. This is all win, win. These things must be paid for. When someone uses geforce now they have to first buy the game.

They get to combine ABK in Game Pass with Bethesda and XGS games and other third parties.

I'm sorry for your loss
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
Not taking calls is not a lack of professionalism, but if they answered and said "screw you, go cry to phil" then i would consider that unprofessional

Coarse it’s lack of professionalism, they have said (Sony) how much money they make off COD and why this deal is bad for them so surely taking calls from one of your biggest revenue streams is professional
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
It’s their job to listen to remedies proposals. How can those proposals match what the CMA has proposed though?
Based on the concerns cited, the amount of times the CMA goes forward on Behavioral Remedies (unbelievably low), and that one of the main opponents feels the current set of deals is inadequate, it seems like it'll be almost impossible for this to go forward via behavioral remedies.


Yes and that’s why I said could still go either way. Who knows
 
They’re rumoured to be cost cutting in all debts this year, so I doubt they will just keep $70b available for acquiring everything else. Probably be done on a case by case basis.
MS would be best suited to just operate the way Sony does. Support their 1st party to release good games in a timely schedule and then make key deals with 3rd party publishers. MS has more resources available than Sony does in regards to the types of deals they can afford. They only thing stopping them is themselves. Just shooting from the hip but if I were in the shoes of MS I would cozy up to companies like EA and Capcom so see if I can get their games to launch of Game Pass day and date, and work out a marketing deal with Take Two for future Rockstar titles, etc.
 
It's not wishy washy. They say that these are their conclusions and the remedies they would accept but they make it clear that they are open to proposals from the parties which they would consider.

It just means this is what we would want but we will still hear you out and investigate if you have some new proposal. They might not find those adequate either but they are always open to them.
Actually that’s fair, and I was a little unfair on them there. Perhaps led by so many clueless people on here trying to draw a definitive resolution from a document that is a million miles away from it. They never said they were done.

They aren’t done with this, even if a lot of people are trying to convince everyone that they are.
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
Sony is currently in court being asked to open up all of their books by what is essentially ATVI. You don't just take calls from folks you are in court proceedings with. The lawyers are there to handle this now. Kotick is fully aware of this.

Courts is one thing but being professional with each other should always be a thing.

How many times is apple google and Samsung in court with each other? All the time but you don’t see them not being precessional with each other in different areas of the company
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
I guess the real question here is,. since the deal looks like it may not go through at all or face major changes in order to go through, what happens after? MS was willing to spend $70b USD to acquire ABK which indicates they have a long term investment for Xbox. If that money doesn't go to this deal, then where? I'm almost more concerned about the state of the market IF the deal falls through because money is king dick in the world of business, and smaller buyouts or major timed deals seems like an avenue.

That’s the new fantasy isn’t it? That MS will somehow pick up those 69B and spend it on gaming anyway.

I’m sure they will keep investing in gaming, but there are other possibilities like Nutella thinking Xbox’s hardware business is actually holding them back. Which is true by the way.
 
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They will spend it on other publishers, studios, ips
LOL no. way.

First - MS already has more studios than they know what to do with. If they are having an issue buying this, what makes you think on the publisher side they wouldn't be met with the same level of objections? Say they wanted to buy Take-Two for instance: every argument the CMA is making here is doubly so applicable to GTA. Not just that, but MS will have to give out somewhere between $2.5-$3b should this deal not go through, not counting the millions in lawyer fees. That ain't chump change.

MS doesn't really need to expand further - they need to streamline what they have and start trying to find ways to make Xbox a more appealing brand overseas. These are the two things they seemingly choose to ignore time and time again.
 
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That’s the new fantasy isn’t it? That MS will somehow pick up those 69B and spend it on gaming anyway.

I’m sure they will keep investing in gaming, but there are other possibilities like Nutella thinking Xbox’s hardware business is actually holding them back.
Fantasy? Relax stud, this is just a conversation.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
MS would be best suited to just operate the way Sony does. Support their 1st party to release good games in a timely schedule and then make key deals with 3rd party publishers. MS has more resources available than Sony does in regards to the types of deals they can afford. They only thing stopping them is themselves. Just shooting from the hip but if I were in the shoes of MS I would cozy up to companies like EA and Capcom so see if I can get their games to launch of Game Pass day and date, and work out a marketing deal with Take Two for future Rockstar titles, etc.
Absolutely - with Zenimax there is absolutely no need whatsoever for them to be continuing to spend in this way. They already have more studios, with many of them being top quality (id, Bethesda, Playground, Turn 10, Tango, Double Fine). They need to focus on the quality pipeline but despite what they’re publicly saying, these acquisitions are definitely being made in the attempt to foreclose Sony in the long term.
 

tmlDan

Member
Coarse it’s lack of professionalism, they have said (Sony) how much money they make off COD and why this deal is bad for them so surely taking calls from one of your biggest revenue streams is professional
No, not while they are in the process of being purchased, they have no obligation to answer any calls.

Think of it as a limbo period, it's nothing personal from Sony to Bobby - it's just that they can't do anything with them anymore.

Sadly, that's a decision Bobby has to live with, I'm sure they would reopen negotiations if the deal falls through. If you're even paying attention, PS and Sony have not complained like children publicly, you can argue that they sound like they're complaining to the regulators but they haven't publicly.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Absolutely - with Zenimax there is absolutely no need whatsoever for them to be continuing to spend in this way. They already have more studios, with many of them being top quality (id, Bethesda, Playground, Turn 10, Tango, Double Fine). They need to focus on the quality pipeline but despite what they’re publicly saying, these acquisitions are definitely being made in the attempt to foreclose Sony in the long term.
Been saying this from the get-go.
 
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Microsoft has to either give up Call of Duty and all studios associated with it, give up Activision entirely including the Call of Duty IP, give up Activision and Blizzard (though it sounds like they keep Call of Duty if they do that but I could be wrong), or watch the deal get blocked. The CMA has said that behavioral remedies are possible, like ensuring Call of Duty is on all platforms at absolute parity for a long time, but they probably won't go that route. Behavioral remedies are a pain in the ass to keep up with.

If Microsoft doesn't care about COD it should be easy for them. If not the road ahead could be very difficult for them.
 

SNG32

Member
They might as well say fuck the deal you know Microsoft doesn’t care about any of activisions IP other than Call of duty. Nadella about to yoga fire Phils ass.
 
Absolutely - with Zenimax there is absolutely no need whatsoever for them to be continuing to spend in this way. They already have more studios, with many of them being top quality (id, Bethesda, Playground, Turn 10, Tango, Double Fine). They need to focus on the quality pipeline but despite what they’re publicly saying, these acquisitions are definitely being made in the attempt to foreclose Sony in the long term.
I am inclined to agree with this. What is it now, 26 studios? Many of which are tenured studios with solid track records like ID, Arkane, Bethesda, Obsidian, and so on. There is zero reason steam for quality releases won't pick up so I suspect that yes, it's not necessary to spend that kind of money when you can likely bolster your lineup spending much less.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Coarse it’s lack of professionalism, they have said (Sony) how much money they make off COD and why this deal is bad for them so surely taking calls from one of your biggest revenue streams is professional
Nope. The SOP would be to communicate everything to and from the CMA, the regulatory body that's now involved in the process. Why talk outside until you're open to settling?
 
Courts is one thing but being professional with each other should always be a thing.

How many times is apple google and Samsung in court with each other? All the time but you don’t see them not being precessional with each other in different areas of the company

When she goes behind your back the sensible thing to do is put that bitch on ignore.
 
"Nowhere does CMA even mention Nintendo"

You don't say.

Will Smith Reaction GIF
She'd be right except that they do:
We have provisionally found that Nintendo’s consoles compete less closely with either of Xbox or PlayStation, generally offering consoles with different technical specifications, and with its most popular titles tending to be more family- and child-friendly. Nintendo does not currently offer CoD, and we have seen no evidence to suggest that its consoles would be technically capable of doing so with a similar quality of gameplay as Xbox or PlayStation in the near future.
During our investigation, Microsoft told us that it has offered to enter into new long-term agreements with Sony, Nintendo, and Steam to supply them with CoD post-Merger. Whether some form of supply or licensing agreement might satisfactorily remedy our concerns in gaming consoles is something that we will consider as part of our remedies process, rather than in our competitive assessment.
 
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ToadMan

Member
I'm having a hard time understanding how that acquisition could "damage the competition" when it's actually evening it out. Sony currently has the stronger marketshare and better IPs, it's not like that will be threatened overnight. I'm not even sure what they mean by "lower the competition", does it suggest that if both competitors are better armed, they will fight less for their marketshare ?

The regulators aren’t there to “even out” the competition.

They are there to represent consumer interests. The consumers have, with their wallets, chosen the marketplace as it is today.

MS is trying to force consumers onto their platforms through acquisition. Regulators don’t like that.

MS is welcome to win market share through innovation, compelling products or even aggressive pricing. They are not though, allowed to change the market place through acquisitions when they aren’t doing as well as they hoped in it.
 

demigod

Member
Another demerit for another person who didn't carefully read what the CMA actually said...

They thrown the door WIDE open to closing this deal WITHOUT divesting if the commitments are good enough, easy to monitor and properly enforceable.

2XA8h1T.jpg


chJp3Cc.png


PHAaSNB.jpg



How is the advantage neutered? All Activision Blizzard games in Game Pass day one? Their whole back catalog? This deal is about Game Pass. It's always been about game pass.

It doesn't hurt Microsoft if games are multi-platform or if other cloud gaming and multi-game subscriptions are allowed to license Activision Blizzard games. This is all win, win. These things must be paid for. When someone uses geforce now they have to first buy the game.

They get to combine ABK in Game Pass with Bethesda and XGS games and other third parties.
Like I said, it's fucking hilarious y'all keep quoting that clown Idas. MS buying Activision so they can put CoD/all games on Gamepass AND take CoD/all games off of Playstation. If you really think MS is willing to spend $69 billion and leave their games on the competition, I have MANY bridges to sell to you. I'll even take it in the form of stocks!
 
Hmmm i thought the deal would get killed by the CMA so in my point of view this is far from a disaster for ms.
As a gamepass subscriber i dont really care about cod. Its cool if the deal passes but if it doesnt then thats fine by me. I havent played cod for years now.
I would love them to get blizzard however as its one of my favourite devs. If they manage to get them ms will be owner of all my favourite studios.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
The regulators aren’t there to “even out” the competition.

They are there to represent consumer interests. The consumers have, with their wallets, chosen the marketplace as it is today.

MS is trying to force consumers onto their platforms through acquisition. Regulators don’t like that.

MS is welcome to win market share through innovation, compelling products or even aggressive pricing. They are not though, allowed to change the market place through acquisitions when they aren’t doing as well as they hoped in it.
Meme Reaction GIF by Robert E Blackmon
 

quest

Not Banned from OT
MS would be best suited to just operate the way Sony does. Support their 1st party to release good games in a timely schedule and then make key deals with 3rd party publishers. MS has more resources available than Sony does in regards to the types of deals they can afford. They only thing stopping them is themselves. Just shooting from the hip but if I were in the shoes of MS I would cozy up to companies like EA and Capcom so see if I can get their games to launch of Game Pass day and date, and work out a marketing deal with Take Two for future Rockstar titles, etc.

Yes play the game on Sony’s turf where deals are 3x-5x more expensive if the other side even wants a deal with a sub 30% market share company. Yes spending 100 million plus dollars per money hat is a totally viable business strategy. Between this and Microsoft should make thier games like Sony’s is just people wanting Microsoft to fail being a cheap imitation of Sony.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Yes play the game on Sony’s turf where deals are 3x-5x more expensive if the other side even wants a deal with a sub 30% market share company. Yes spending 100 million plus dollars per money hat is a totally viable business strategy. Between this and Microsoft should make thier games like Sony’s is just people wanting Microsoft to fail being a cheap imitation of Sony.
MS has nobody to blame but themselves. They are not a victim.
 
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