Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Hero of Spielberg said:
Perhaps. Or perhaps they'll look at less 'important' IP's / studios to acquire?
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After making their strategy of using the warchest to purchase as many developers/IP they can to make them exclusive to their platform, ultra clear to the governing bodies across the world, I would expect literally any move made in the gaming space to be put under very heavy scrutiny.

Not saying it can't be done, but they're all going to be looked at after this one.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
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But that's not what you said months ago. 👀

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Schitts Creek Pain GIF by CBC
 
When you are constantly selling Call of Duty games each year or two and getting sales figures of 30+ million per game sold it is no wonder they want Microsoft to either leave that franchise alone, or come up with a better proposition they have now. Giving companies a 10 year warranty is absolutely nothing when in 2034 that deal is gone and MS can do whatever they want with it.

In my own personal opinion I dislike the approach Microsoft is going with and I also dislike what they have become. Their gaming division has been struggling to keep up with the pace of Sony and Nintendo due to the lack of proper management and buying the proper talent. Instead of investing in talent they are buying one of the biggest companies in the gaming community to ensure they will have a proper gaming library in the upcoming future.

When you have as much cash as Microsoft does it is absolutely warranted a lot of countries are investigating the deal instead of just looking away.
 
The_Mike said:
Nah Sony bought Bungie while this case is running.

They'll be fine investing.
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Sloppy seconds from MS, then Activision that tried to go indie without success. Now instead of selling a game and expansions they are f2p selling extremely overpriced expansions.
I would say it was more of a pity buy out of the good relationship they had since Destiny 1.
 
Halo Infinite alledgely had a total, insane, cost of 500 millions. Most top tier AAA first party have a total budget (dev + marketing) of about 100-200 millions (like TLOU2, Cyberpunk 2077 being one of a few exception with 320+ millions). Many good AAA games cost "only" 50-100 millions (Horizon Zero Dawn had a dev cost of about 50 millions for instance)
Here's the link to Wikipedia "most expensive video games to developp" list. It's incomplete and imperfect but you get the idea. The sum of all these 18 games dev +marketing bugdet is less than 4 Billions total.

With $70 Billions MS could have funded 140 AAA with the insane 500 millions budget of Halo Infinite and make all of them available day one on Gamepass. Or 350 AAA with TLOU2 budget (marketing included). Or about 700 games with Genshin Impact budget for Gaas games. That whole deal is a hubris fiasco of cosmic proportion. MS could create hundreds of new games, innovating and with great quality, no one has their deep pocket to do so, but they choose a different path.
 
Gaelyon said:
Halo Infinite alledgely had a total, insane, cost of 500 millions. Most top tier AAA first party have a total budget (dev + marketing) of about 100-200 millions (like TLOU2, Cyberpunk 2077 being one of a few exception with 320+ millions). Many good AAA games cost "only" 50-100 millions (Horizon Zero Dawn had a dev cost of about 50 millions for instance)
Here's the link to Wikipedia "most expensive video games to developp" list. It's incomplete and imperfect but you get the idea. The sum of all these 18 games dev +marketing bugdet is less than 4 Billions total.

With $70 Billions MS could have funded 140 AAA with the insane 500 millions budget of Halo Infinite and make all of them available day one on Gamepass. Or 350 AAA with TLOU2 budget (marketing included). Or about 700 games with Genshin Impact budget for Gaas games. That whole deal is a hubris fiasco of cosmic proportion. MS could create hundreds of new games, innovating and with great quality, no one has their deep pocket to do so, but they choose a different path.
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You do realise that people are required to develop those games? You don't just inject $70bn into your existing studios and magically get 140 AAA games.
 
PaintTinJr said:
It is one of the major benefits of the UK being integral to the creation of today's games industry and being an old, wealthy, small island nation(+NI),and being densely populated, it means sectors like the games industry have legends(like Ian Livingston) that are well known and available to meet up easily and still provide invaluable insight, knowledge and guidance to help our government - of the time - locally improve the industry and market with politics left out of it.
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To add to this, the likes of Peter Molyneux has an OBE along with direct history with Microsoft. If someone like him writes in (or calls) the the CMA they are going to fucking take note.

They're trying to fuck with the wrong little island, Kotick's latest threats won't be helping matters either.
 
aries_71 said:
Was Fallout 4 such as a big thing? I mean compared to a COD?
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I'm not really talking about it in terms of sales, I mean in terms of overall influence of where this gen (and potentially next gen) may go, it's just so central to so many narratives and counter-narratives that press/YouTubers could run with. That's not even including the possibility of Bethesda jank content.

In terms of sales, Fallout 4 was 3rd on NPD 2015, COD was #1 AND #10, which kinda tells you why so much ink is spilled over this takeover.
venturebeat.com

2015 NPD: The 10 best-selling games of the year

2015 is over, and it’s time to count the money the gaming industry made. New video games sold at U.S. retailers made $13.1 billion for the second year in a row. That was thanks to strong releases for the new systems while the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 fall into irrelevancy. But really, it’s all...
venturebeat.com venturebeat.com
 
GHG said:
To add to this, the likes of Peter Molyneux has an OBE along with direct history with Microsoft. If someone like him writes in (or calls) the the CMA they are going to fucking take note.

They're trying to fuck with the wrong little island, Kotick's latest threats won't be helping matters either.
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I would have though Molyneux would be one o f the last people you'd ltake note of given his track record after the last 2 decades!
 
Hero of Spielberg said:
These sort of suggestions always sound strange to me. It implies some sort of 'sportsmanship' in business.
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In a way how you compete matters to regulators. Like for example buying up all third party developers to deny the competition content isn't allowed. Creating a studio and developing it is fine by regulators.

Don't think its that strange to be honest.
 
Hero of Spielberg said:
I would have though Molyneux would be one o f the last people you'd ltake note of given his track record after the last 2 decades!
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That's not how it works. He has rightfully been recognised by the country in a number if ways as a legendary figure thanks to his overall contributions to the industry.

Slander him all you like, his work is held in high regard across the whole industry.
 
Hero of Spielberg said:
You do realise that people are required to develop those games? You don't just inject $70bn into your existing studios and magically get 140 AAA games.
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Of course It's not an instant thing you sign a check and bam ! obviously it takes times. It's to give an order of magnitude. MS could used only a fraction of these 70B years ago to fund dozens of additional quality studios/reinforce existing ones, greenlighting tons of projects etc. In my opinion a much better long term use of money.
 
MasterCornholio said:
I was just using it as an example. They are trying to buy a big multiplatform developer. That's why regulators are asking for these concessions. You can at least see that.
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Yes, I can see they're making big acquisitions, as they're down by a long way and want to make up ground fast. My argument is the manner in how they gain market share shouldn't be a concern as long as it doesn't result in an anticompetitive outcome.
 
Hero of Spielberg said:
Yes, I can see they're making big acquisitions, as they're down by a long way and want to make up ground fast. My argument is the manner in how they gain market share shouldn't be a concern as long as it doesn't result in an anticompetitive outcome.
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Well that's why they are asking for these concessions. It's to prevent an anticompetitive outcome since COD is such a huge IP.
 
A lot of you act like it's your own company and the decision will somehow impact your life. You should look at this objectively and there is no other conclusion that this would be bad for gamers, the market, and competition (in the long run). History has proven that this is done to gain control over a certain market and increase market share in order to dominate it. MS has a history in doing this so I assume their plan is to do the same, I do not believe they consider competition healthy, they want to dominate.
 
Gaelyon said:
Of course It's not an instant thing you sign a check and bam ! obviously it takes times. It's to give an order of magnitude. MS could used only a fraction of these 70B years ago to fund dozens of additional quality studios/reinforce existing ones, greenlighting tons of projects etc. In my opinion a much better long term use of money.
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I'm not sure they have studios sitting around doing nothing, and I'm not sure that the studios they do have are inadequately funded (as far as I know anyway), so unless you have more studios you can't get more output regardless of how much money you pour into them.
 
MasterCornholio said:
Well that's why they are asking for these concessions. It's to prevent an anticompetitive outcome since COD is such a huge IP.
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Yes, I understand that. I was contesting the 'but they can't just buy market share' narrative. Of course if the regulators think it results in an anticompetitive outcome then it will be blocked.
 
1 week of not paying attention to this thread and I am already out of the loop.
I guess I can't follow what is going with this purchase anymore.
 
Hero of Spielberg said:
Yes, I understand that. I was contesting the 'but they can't just buy market share' narrative. Of course if the regulators think it results in an anticompetitive outcome then it will be blocked.
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Well they still don't like it when companies buy their way into market share and take away content from competing platforms.

There are different ways to gain market share. Some are more favorable than others. Buying your way into becoming the market leader isn't liked by many regulators.

If Microsoft wants ABK they need to not want COD. Simple as that.
 
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GHG said:
That's not how it works. He has rightfully been recognised by the country in a number if ways as a legendary figure thanks to his overall contributions to the industry.

Slander him all you like, his work is held in high regard across the whole industry.
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Was just a little dig. I actually admire his 'big picture' thinking as well as his contribution to the industry, esp Populous and Warmonger
 
MasterCornholio said:
Well they still don't like it when companies buy their way into market share and take away content from competing platforms.

There are different ways to gain market share. Some are more favorable than others. Buying your way into becoming the market leader isn't liked by many regulators.

If Microsoft wants ABK they need to not want COD. Simple as that.
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Even without COD they would still be gaining market share and potentially taking content away from consumers. Hence my repeated point, it's not the method but the outcome that is under scrutiny
 
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Hero of Spielberg said:
Even without COD they would still be gaining market share and potentially taking content away from consumers. Hence my repeated point, it's not the method but the outcome that is under scrutiny
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Microsoft can't buy themselves into being market leader or having a monopoly in the market.

If it's small it probably won't impact competition that much but if it's huge then the impact will be a lot greater.

Regulators don't care if Microsoft or Sony grow the studios they already have. Buying 3rd parties is something they have looked at with both of them. Yes including Bungie.
 
Hero of Spielberg said:
You do realise that people are required to develop those games? You don't just inject $70bn into your existing studios and magically get 140 AAA games.
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Casey Hudson, Ken Levine, Fumito Ueda, Dan Houser, Amy Henig, Cliffy B, Shannon Studstil, Bruce Straley.

There is an enormous amount of talent out in the market that a company like Microsoft could built teams around or even have build teams for them.

Instead they are more interested in collecting IPs and devs and hope they don't really have to be involved in the studio management
 
Yoboman said:
Casey Hudson, Ken Levine, Fumito Ueda, Dan Houser, Amy Henig, Cliffy B, Shannon Studstil, Bruce Straley.

There is an enormous amount of talent out in the market that a company like Microsoft could built teams around or even have build teams for them.

Instead they are more interested in collecting IPs and devs and hope they don't really have to be involved in the studio management
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Regulators don't care if you add content to your product. What concerns them is if you take away content from other products. That's why they look at big mergers because the impact on consumers can be a lot greater than a small indie dev for example.
 
Honestly if I am Microsoft I sell the Call of Duty IP stories and characters to Amazon and have IW and Treyarch start working on "The Call of War" and "The Call of War Combat-area" and just brand the shit up from the teams that brought you Call of Duty. Might suck for a release or two but Amazon would likely falter and MS has a brand new IP from the teams that made an IP that apparently is too large to sell. It's kind of why this whole thing seems dumb. It's not as if COD has a copywrite on FP shooter or battle royale and they can ride the hype train.
 
xHunter said:
Plus there is almost no marketing in europe. Meanwhile you have this for sony:

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This is why them getting the Fifa MTX exclusive for 4 years did next to nothing for them.
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Plus, Sony put an effort on localisation right from the beginning with PS1. Microsoft has had over 20 years to catch up, but they're still lacking. Not to mention, that they don't have official presense in all regions. It's no wonder the Xbox brand is seen as US-centric, isn't as popular in non-English countries, and why the PS brand is stronger in Europe and developing countries.
 
Yoboman said:
Casey Hudson, Ken Levine, Fumito Ueda, Dan Houser, Amy Henig, Cliffy B, Shannon Studstil, Bruce Straley.

There is an enormous amount of talent out in the market that a company like Microsoft could built teams around or even have build teams for them.

Instead they are more interested in collecting IPs and devs and hope they don't really have to be involved in the studio management
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Maybe they approached those on the list and they were already working on other things / weren't up for starting a new studio? This sounds a bit like in football when people start saying, just go buy this coach! They're not always willing or available.
 
RGB'D said:
Honestly if I am Microsoft I sell the Call of Duty IP stories and characters to Amazon and have IW and Treyarch start working on "The Call of War" and "The Call of War Combat-area" and just brand the shit up from the teams that brought you Call of Duty. Might suck for a release or two but Amazon would likely falter and MS has a brand new IP from the teams that made an IP that apparently is too large to sell. It's kind of why this whole thing seems dumb. It's not as if COD has a copywrite on FP shooter or battle royale and they can ride the hype train.
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It's not enough to just sell the I.P it has to be sold alongside all the dev houses that make it.
 
Badlucktroll said:
For this to go through, i bet Microsoft will have to give up COD, which is the whole point of the takeover, right?
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Yes. I can't imagine the ATVI people are happy right now. Kotick & Co. know without CoD that they are not interesting as an acquisition target. WoW, Diablo, and Candy Crush aren't worth $70B.
 
noise36 said:
When was the last time in any industry we saw the CMA/FTC running a protection racket for the market leader?
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All the time.

The FTC-CMA are there to make the rules the same for everyone. Not the outcomes.

How would it be fair if the market leader had to play by different rules or just let companies that aren't pleasing consumers just break whatever rules they like to force users to their services.
 
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The $100-billion company fighting the anti-competitive acquisition is bad.

The $2,000-billion company that's acquiring publishers and taking their multiplatform games off of other platforms is good.

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Gaelyon said:
Of course It's not an instant thing you sign a check and bam ! obviously it takes times. It's to give an order of magnitude. MS could used only a fraction of these 70B years ago to fund dozens of additional quality studios/reinforce existing ones, greenlighting tons of projects etc. In my opinion a much better long term use of money.
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I mean, not that I disagree with your logic, but I guess when you are about to set a 70bn deal probably there were a ton of market research to cover all the scenarios.
Im not a COD fan and in my brain buying EA and making Fifa console exclusive would be an insta-death of the competition, but I prefer to give credit to these companies when they do such big movements.
 
Ar¢tos said:
Sloppy seconds from MS, then Activision that tried to go indie without success. Now instead of selling a game and expansions they are f2p selling extremely overpriced expansions.
I would say it was more of a pity buy out of the good relationship they had since Destiny 1.
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Honestly the IP of Destiny might be worth it alone if they want to leverage it into their own cinematic universe with TV and movies. One of the reasons Luke Smith said they agreed to the sale was because of Sonys connections and experience in "other entertainment spaces" so keep an eye out for a Destiny TV show sometime in the near future.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
The $100-billion company fighting the anti-competitive acquisition is bad.

The $2,000-trillion company that's acquiring publishers and taking their multiplatform games off of other platforms is good.

0YVIE4N.png
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Kotick calling the UK death valley if it didn't approve
That clown communication officer from MS who responded with 'wat' when showing how poor his argument was about MS not taking games away
Lulu cheng well where do i begin?
Phil spencer with numerous bullshit statements
Satya with an idiotic take on japanese market share
And that's just at the top of my head

And sony is the one that looks bad...
 
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