Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Of course Nvidia likes this cloud deal, their streaming model isn't reliant on selling games or collecting revenue from in game purchases.
 
I think the deal being blocked raises some questions worth thinking about. It wasn't blocked on console concerns, but cloud concerns. So what does that mean for Microsoft? Would the CMA have a similar concern to something like EA? T2? Probably not, but still something to ponder.

Would cloud concerns also apply to Sony or is Microsoft's position much more unique? Would it apply to any other company, really?

As far as console concerns, where is the CMA's line? They nearly blocked it when they had data showing it would be very damaging to competitors, but additional data removed that concern.

What would it take for the CMA to block an acquisition, based on console concerns, if a console manufacturer that is highly competitive in the US and UK wasn't going to be denied buying ABK?
 
Thirty7ven said:
There were theories around MS artificially holding back Series stock and production to trick regulators. The merger was also supposed to have been cleared by now if the CMA hadn't moved to block it. Did these theories gain strength with Phil Spencer announcing the shortages were over during the showcase?

The timeline is suspicious.
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tinfoil-hat.gif
 
Varteras said:
I think the deal being blocked raises some questions worth thinking about. It wasn't blocked on console concerns, but cloud concerns. So what does that mean for Microsoft? Would the CMA have a similar concern to something like EA? T2? Probably not, but still something to ponder.
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Most probably, yeah, those will be blocked as well.
Varteras said:
Would cloud concerns also apply to Sony or is Microsoft's position much more unique? Would it apply to any other company, really?
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They will, but they won't be much of a concern. Sony has a 20% share in the UK cloud gaming market.
Varteras said:
As far as console concerns, where is the CMA's line? They nearly blocked it when they had data showing it would be very damaging to competitors, but additional data removed that concern.

What would it take for the CMA to block an acquisition, based on console concerns, if a console manufacturer that is highly competitive in the US and UK wasn't going to be denied buying ABK?
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The line. Unpopular guess, but if MS were to acquire Zenimax today, CMA might have even blocked that one.

In 2021, xCloud had a 20% market share in the UK cloud gaming market. In 2022, it jumped up to 70%. When the CMA analyzed Zenimax's acquisition, Xbox wasn't dominating the UK Cloud market.

Xbox will have a tough time getting anything even remotely substantial through the CMA going forward. And I'm all for it.

Just my 2 cents though. Nobody knows what's gonna happen.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Most probably, yeah, those will be blocked as well.

They will, but they won't be much of a concern. Sony has a 20% share in the UK cloud gaming market.

The line. Unpopular guess, but if MS were to acquire Zenimax today, CMA might have even blocked that one.

In 2021, xCloud had a 20% market share in the UK cloud gaming market. In 2022, it jumped up to 70%. When the CMA analyzed Zenimax's acquisition, Xbox wasn't dominating the UK Cloud market.

Xbox will have a tough time getting anything even remotely substantial through the CMA going forward. And I'm all for it.

Just my 2 cents though. Nobody knows what's gonna happen.
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So from your thinking here, if accurate, that would mean that Microsoft might have to make a choice? On either abandoning the cloud market in order to acquire big companies to compete elsewhere, or build up through much smaller acquisitions, like their pre-2020 run, and stay in both?
 
Varteras said:
So from your thinking here, if accurate, that would mean that Microsoft might have to make a choice? On either abandoning the cloud market in order to acquire big companies to compete elsewhere, or build up through much smaller acquisitions, like their pre-2020 run, and stay in both?
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More or less. I think they'd go with their pre-2020 run anyway -- considering the declining state of the Xbox division and the rise of AI as a potential, more profitable investment opportunity.

But I think they might also work towards separating xCloud with GPU after a while and change the structure of their cloud gaming market share that way.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
More or less. I think they'd go with their pre-2020 run anyway -- considering the declining state of the Xbox division and the rise of AI as a potential, more profitable investment opportunity.

But I think they might also work towards separating xCloud with GPU after a while and change the structure of their cloud gaming market share that way.
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If they separate Xcloud into its own pay tier that alleviates a lot of the issue. MS cloud dominance is because cloud gaming is attached to Gamepass.
 
Nvidia would also love to stop selling gpus to dirty gamers and shift them all to the cloud (tm), so it can charge the shit out of vaporware AI companies instead
 
James Sawyer Ford said:
Read GHG GHG 's post again

Activision's stock price is now trading with high volatility, meaning it's unanchored to Microsoft's deal. The market is pricing in that the deal will fail and it's current price reflects true market value

So yes. If the deadline expires MS will need to renegotiate a much higher price should they want to continue battling it out in the courts
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Beta has gone back to being suppressed if today is anything to go by. Very low trading volume and narrow trading range in what was a more volitile session overall as far as the indexes are concerned.

Just one day, but if that's the case again tomorrow then it's once again decoupled from the rest of the market and I suspect it will stay that way until the FTC case has a resolution.
 
Supposedly, Microsoft really wants that information to stay out. It was an internal e-mail between Matt Booty and Tim Stuart. The company CFO. Just like Microsoft wanting the contents of their proposed deal to PlayStation to remain hidden, there is a good reason why they don't want this e-mail being known either.
 
feynoob said:
:pie_invert:
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My money is on Aaron Greenberg. He is dense enough. Although Matt Booty has been recently talking enough shite out of his booty to jump up near the top of the rogues gallery.

Edit: Aaron has risen in my estimation by doing nothing and letting Matt Booty overtake him in general dumbassery
 
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DeepEnigma said:
A company that has always had that mission dynamic at its core? Down to EEE. Color me shocked!
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It's why it's important to not allow them this kind of power.
Activision is the last holding for gaming.
Allowing a purchase like that would destroy gaming and allow other big company purchase spree.
 
MistBreeze said:
But are these talks from execs taken seriously in court?
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DeepEnigma said:
If they are done on internal company emails, they can be.
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feynoob said:
Yes. They have intent and could be used as evidence.
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Not to mention it is between a very high level executive and one of the heads of Xbox. That is absolutely damning information if true. It would show Microsoft's intent is to not merely compete, but altogether remove competition. Especially in a way they believe is incredibly damaging, despite their outward arguments otherwise. Which would definitely call back into question the concerns of console gaming that the CMA initially worried about and then dismissed when Microsoft, and presumably a few others, gave them "better data".
 
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The head of Xbox Game Studios telling Xbox's Chief Financial Officer that the plan for ABK acquisition is to put PlayStation out of business?

To arms rat army, damage needs to be controlled.
 
azertydu91 said:
Yep, let's remember that it comes from a company that cried that sony was belittling competition and doing discreet deals....It's crazy how everything they complain about is applying even moreso to them.
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Just like the political arena. Gaslighting and projection.

They operate the same.
 
feynoob said:
:pie_invert:
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lmao. I literally fucking said this. There is no way Sony can survive without COD. 55% of console gamers play cod and even if half of them moved to xbox, sony would lose 35% of its PS+ subs, 35% of its digital store revenue, and god knows what else as a knock-on effect. At least not without significantly downscaling and turning into a different company. Like Nintendo which had to essentially turn itself into a handheld only company.

MS knew this. There was no other reason to spend $70 billion on one publisher when they couldve spend half that and gotten ubisoft, capcom, square-enix and take2. It wasnt about games or gamepass or providing value to their users. It was to put sony out of business first and foremost. I cant believe people here who see everything with a lens of system wars didnt see the biggest system wars flex ever.
 
Varteras said:
I think the deal being blocked raises some questions worth thinking about. It wasn't blocked on console concerns, but cloud concerns. So what does that mean for Microsoft? Would the CMA have a similar concern to something like EA? T2? Probably not, but still something to ponder.

Would cloud concerns also apply to Sony or is Microsoft's position much more unique? Would it apply to any other company, really?

As far as console concerns, where is the CMA's line? They nearly blocked it when they had data showing it would be very damaging to competitors, but additional data removed that concern.

What would it take for the CMA to block an acquisition, based on console concerns, if a console manufacturer that is highly competitive in the US and UK wasn't going to be denied buying ABK?
Click to expand...

A phone call from Jim Ryan, obviously :P
 
Ar¢tos said:
Because internet speed and coverage is never going to improve over there, its going to remain fixed until the end of times, right?
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Speed and coverage is actually improving rapidly but that isn't really the issue. There are no local Microsoft servers in our Datacentres, they have made commitments to build some here but the priority is Azure and other services.

I am confident when I say Cloud gaming isn't going to take off in NZ and even if we somehow start primarily gaming via the cloud, it's is not going to affect the operations of Sony and Nvidia. UK and Europe I can understand, maybe even Australia, NZ? Nah mate.

Source: I live in NZ
 
DeepEnigma said:
Just like the political arena. Gaslighting and projection.

They operate the same.
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Remember when it was viewed as a bad thing when Jim Ryan wanted to end this deal?I'm pretty sure the same people will have no problem with Ms wanting to put Sony out of business.When it is magnitudes way worse but as always it will be brushed like nothing.
 
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