I'm curious if you could answer two questions...
1. How do you rationalize Escape from Tarkov breaking 200k CCU in 2020? Do you feel that game represents the genres ceiling?
2. Why are roguelites one of, if not the most popular indie genres in gaming?
I don't really think about it too much. Tarkov had a really strong twitch campaign, and breaking the 200k CCU was on the back of quite mediocre numbers, fatigue of other shooters and using several streamers at the height of their power like Dr Disrespect. Over time it got to that critical mass it needed. It's also difficult to truly measure as we don't have current CCU, but I'm guessing it gets the 'season' bounce and then tails off - as is the usual case with all these types of mechanic (genre not withstanding). It also has a quite good self sustaining loop of needing to watch Twitch to uncover the obscurity, which keeps it in the top 20 games and probably a stream of newer players trying it to complement the hardcore.
Like that Aztecross said, you have to be first or you have to be good. Tarkov doesn't surpass PUBG for example, and looking on Steam, Hunt doesn't even crack 20k, nor does Dark and Darker.
If Tarkov hasn't moved on significantly from 2020 CCU then I'd say it's probably found it's audience peak - for the foreseeable, until it goes through it's formal release and we reappraise where it sits.
The problem is you can't just take what is good on PC and throw it on console and expect it to just work. I will concede the genre - if done right - has a gap on consoles and whoever is 'first' to crack the formula will probably make bank. Marathon is not there. Arc Raiders is more in line with what console players will expect as a complete experience. It may get very front loaded sales but I still see them dying off within 12m in terms of players. If this genre wants to exploit the golden goose of console games they fundamentally need to adjust the way it works. To be fair Marathon and Arc have both put a little tweak or two on the formula but it really needs revolution not evolution.
Regarding 2, I'm not sure if you mean multiplayer? Either way though the game loop has to be fun - like Returnal. Sweating to get loot, to get dropped by a trio camping an exfil is not fun. Nor is spending all your all time gathering loot to sound an alarm to everyone on the server to come and get you. If its meant to be 'hardcore' then why artificially provoke PvP encounters? The genre lends itself to sweaty play.
The audience these games are chasing are not small niche playerbases. They want to be the 'first' on console. And right now they aren't interested in innovating the genre or finding a new formula. They are interested in just transplanting a by the numbers game and monetising it. Which is why there is such disdain. Arc at least looks like it has had a fair amount of care put into it and they've committed to the direction at least.