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[snapdragon]

Lots of marketing and a price point lower than MS/Sony Systems is guaranteed 5-10 million lifetime sales imo

however missing out on games like fortnite, roblox, GTA online etc is a huge issue

also not an issue and just a personal cope but the design is modernistic garbage and further continues the 2 and a half decade long trend of game consoles looking like DVD players or routers, wish we could get consoles with more fun designs like the PS vita 2000, Dreamcast, Gamecube, New 3DS, etc

 

[RoboFu]

300 million

 

[jshackles]

Hard to even guess without knowing the price.

 

[Kacho]

3-5 million. I think there will be a lot of overlap between Steam Deck owners and Steam Machine buyers.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

It will barely surpass the NextBox at 51 million consoles sold

 

[Codes 208]

Hovering between 5-10m seems reasonable

Steam deck was a highlight as a nintendo switch killer and it only made about 6m, so….

 

[lh032]

20 mil at most if they are lucky.

Probably end up niche like steamdeck

 

[Guilty_AI]

2: Episode 2 million sales

 

[Danjin44]

Can people buy this on regular retail stores? If not then I dont think it sale as much as other systems.

 

[R3TRO]

4.5

 

[Danjin44]

Hard to even guess without knowing the price.

I heard this system is even weaker than base PS5 but if this thing has same price as PS5 pro or higher then it has no chance of selling well.

 

[Topher]

I heard this system is even weaker than base PS5 but if this thing has same price as PS5 pro or higher then it has no chance of selling well.

GPU is slightly weaker. Equivalent to the difference in power between PS5 and XSX, but in the other direction. CPU is stronger though.

Same price as PS5 in the PC market is a damn good price.

Can people buy this on regular retail stores? If not then I dont think it sale as much as other systems.

It won't come close to selling as much as consoles. Far too many alternatives and plenty of folks already have upgradeable PCs. This is just another option of many.

 

[Draugoth]

Depends an awful on the price. If this is $399 you can expect a lot of sales.

 

[Guilty_AI]

I heard this system is even weaker than base PS5 but if this thing has same price as PS5 pro or higher then it has no chance of selling well.

There's a market for form-factor PCs. It obviously won't sell like those consoles but it'll sell well under their terms.

Not to mention Valve's intentions with such releases is popularizing their software rather than simply selling a lot of hardware. They released the deck to prove there was a Handheld PC market to be explored and it worked, they're likely following suit with the GabeCube. They're more interested in seeing more of such devices being made by third-parties, then incentivizing them into using SteamOS with Steam integration.

 

[RafterXL]

The Steam Deck has sold ~3-4 million in 3.5 years. This thing won't come close to that, honestly, and most of will be the same group of people.

 

[Durin]

Hard to say, given this device is just another option (of many) to play PC games.

I could see it getting to 10-15 million before they make another one, but that would depend on if Valve will open sales of this to larger storefronts like Amazon this time, how it's priced in foreign markets, or how they improve this device over time with software features/services.

Also no clue how much marketing they'll do, because historically Valve does little, and goes with the slow burn of "build it and they will come" word of mouth than any big campaigns like Sony or Nintendo.

 

[Hero_Select]

5 Million at most probably

 

[Donald mac Ronald]

Didn't they already try this years ago and nothing materialised?

What's changed now.

 

[bender]

Deck cleared 5 million but I think the Deck has a wider appeal.

 

[PeteBull]

5-10m, aka its gonna be totally irrelevant.

 

[DarkShadowXI]

Didn't they already try this years ago and nothing materialised?

What's changed now.

Lessons learned. Steam Deck. Proton. Significant platform growth. Loyal customer base.

 

[Griffon]

Lifetime for this very model with this particular hardware capabilities? I'm feeling generous for a cool 10-15 millions. Given the chosen hardware this thing will get very cheap pretty fast over time, and if devs are smart they'll target it as their minimum spec for quite a while. It has its chances of surpassing the deck.

 

[Topher]

Relevant stats from the Steam hardware survey

-The top 30% of GPUs are in the 3060/4060 GPU range.

-73% game at 1080p or 1440p.

-4.65% game at 4k

-33% have 8GB VRAM

-28% have 6 core CPUs

-41% have 16GB system RAM

Valve is clearly going after the HTPC crowd with this, but I would not be surprised if this gets a lot of interest from entry level desktop PC gamers, particularly the folks who don't want to build their own PC. If it comes in at under $600 then you will be hard pressed to find a prebuilt with similar specs at that price.

 

[kiphalfton]

1

 

[tanners]

I think it going 4M at best
It essentially just a OEM PC running Linux at core

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Difficult to say considering various things we don't know yet. Chiefly:

-Price​

​

-Scale of production volume​

​

-Scale of distribution availability​

​

-Scale of marketing & advertising​

So far, from what's been mentioned it seems it'll initially be sold only through Valve's own Steam store, which means at least initial marketing & advertising will be similar to that of Steam Deck. Assuming we are going by a 5-year timespan as a lifecycle for the device, and things remain as-is, then I'd probably say anywhere between 6-8 million. Nothing crazy. That also depends on it pricing between $499 - $799. Anything beyond $799 is probably pushing it given the specifications, and anything below $499 risks taking too big a subsidy hit when the volume is small early on.

If scale of production volume increases significantly after a while, that probably gives Valve room to reduce the price since they'd want to grow install base to drive transactions of purchases on Steam. That also greatly increases total possible sales. But again, there are quite a few major factors we don't know at the time, so it's almost impossible to say what lifetime sales could be in those scenarios.

 

[Dacvak]

If it sells 1 million it'll be considered a success. The Steam Machine is a far more niche device than the Steam Deck, which I think only has 4-6 million units sold.

Most people who use Steam as a primary gaming platform already have a PC, by nature. The Steam Deck has an overlap with that audience because its main drive is that it's a portable.

The Steam Machine does not have that overlap, and is primarily aimed at the console crowd. The numbers in the poll are wildly unrealistic. Unless this launches at like $299 or $399, there's no way it'll pull crazy numbers.

But that doesn't mean it won't be a success. The Steam Deck is a huge success, and it only has a few million units sold. If the Steam Machine hits 1 million units sold, that would be awesome.

 

[ZehDon]

If it's priced incredibly low, like USD$199, they'll move 6 or 7 million at best.
If it's priced like a console, like USD$499, they'll move well under 3 million.

 

[lastmessiah]

It's going to be near $1000, possibly more. Where are people pulling these crazy cheap price projections from, their ass?

 

[ReBurn]

Hovering between 5-10m seems reasonable

Steam deck was a highlight as a nintendo switch killer and it only made about 6m, so….

No reasonable human being believed that Steam Deck was a Switch killer. I love my Deck but c'mon.

 

[damidu]

it wont do steamdeck numbers, which itself is pretty meh sales-wise
so 1-3 million.

 

[Jormatar]

Depends on the price. Ain't no one other than few million Gabe fanboys buying a less powered console than PS5 which actually costs more than PS5.

 

[StereoVsn]

It really depends on the price. I am thinking around 5 mil for this version if Valve places it around $500.

But also most likely we will see an upgrade in late 2027 / early 2028 with RDNA 5, so this particular model won't be on sale all that long.

 

[Robb]

5-10M at best would be my guess.

 

[lastmessiah]

Depends on the price. Ain't no one other than few million Gabe fanboys buying a less powered console than PS5 which actually costs more than PS5.

Steam Machine will have better performance than PS5, no question. And yes, I'll bet on it.

 

[phant0m]

Steam Machine will have better performance than PS5, no question. And yes, I'll bet on it.

That would be a poor bet.

The CPU is better but tragically limited(?!) to 30W TDP

GPU is worse (RX 6700 vs RX 7400) and can't support VRR or ALLM.

If it's priced incredibly low, like USD$199, they'll move 6 or 7 million at best.
If it's priced like a console, like USD$499, they'll move well under 3 million.

Equally priced I would pick the PS5 all day for a living room setup.

Different story if they price the lower SKU at $299 though.

 

[lastmessiah]

That would be a poor bet.

The CPU is better but tragically limited(?!) to 30W TDP

GPU is worse (RX 6700 vs RX 7400) and can't support VRR or ALLM.

Equally priced I would pick the PS5 all day.

Different story if they price the lower SKU at $299 though.

Like I said, I'll bet real money on it.

 

[Gambit2483]

5-10M at best would be my guess.

Same. I'd be very surprised if this thing sells more than 10M. Who exactly is this for..??

 

[phant0m]

Same. I'd be very surprised if this thing sells more than 10M. Who exactly is this for..??

I really don't know, unless it's under $400.

Mind is blown they stuck with a 30W CPU TDP and RDNA3 for a desktop product launching in 2026. A 9060, even non-XT would be way more performant and future proof.

But I'd guess <5M lifetime sales. Deck 2 / Deck Pro would've been a better announcement.

 

[MayauMiao]

3-5 mil. I don't think it will be earth shattering and will be for enthusiasts or those love to dabble with modding.

 

[Drell]

I'm not necessarily the the client for this but if it can popularize Steam OS a bit more, I hope it sells well.

 

[Sakura]

I voted 3-5 but really depends on the price point. I'm just not sure who it's for. If you don't already have a PC and it's not too expensive, it could be a good entry level PC for gaming. But then you wouldn't be on Steam to know about/buy the thing in the first place.

 

[existensmaximum]

Depends an awful on the price. If this is $399 you can expect a lot of sales.

I can't imagine it being even close to that cheap. Do you really think it could be?

 

[Ozzie666]

Same odds to sell 5 m or crumble and be forgotten again.

 

[AJUMP23]

Gafers will buy 30.

 

[jshackles]

Most people who use Steam as a primary gaming platform already have a PC, by nature. The Steam Deck has an overlap with that audience because its main drive is that it's a portable.

And yet, seems like every month like clockwork we get a thread on GAF where someone asks how they can extend their PC gaming to the living room / TV space, and the answer they get from the mouth breathers is "Just spend $1000+ on a miniature gaming PC and buy a specialized keyboard to run it from the couch" followed by pages and pages of suggestions for settings on Windows to make the whole thing work smoothly... and a lot of times, it still doesn't. Those same threads usually eventually devolve into "Bro just buy a PS5".

I think a decent subset of people (myself included) will happily pay for the "out of the box" functionality this will provide to the living room experience, especially if it isn't going to break the bank.

 

[ZehDon]

Equally priced I would pick the PS5 all day for a living room setup.

Different story if they price the lower SKU at $299 though.

100% agreed. If it's the same price as a console, even with the openness of Linux, it's hard to see a scenario where it's that much more beneficial than a PS5 or XSX to justify the under-specd performance. The Steam Deck is at least portable and dockable as well as open, so it's price to power ratio makes a lot more sense. A lot hinges on the Steam Machine's price point in my eyes.

 

[Dacvak]

And yet, seems like every month like clockwork we get a thread on GAF where someone asks how they can extend their PC gaming to the living room / TV space, and the answer they get from the mouth breathers is "Just spend $1000+ on a miniature gaming PC and buy a specialized keyboard to run it from the couch" followed by pages and pages of suggestions for settings on Windows to make the whole thing work smoothly... and a lot of times, it still doesn't. Those same threads usually eventually devolve into "Bro just buy a PS5".

I think a decent subset of people (myself included) will happily pay for the "out of the box" functionality this will provide to the living room experience, especially if it isn't going to break the bank.

On one hand, we've learned time and time again that GAF in no way represents the majority, and that we're a small subset of autists that only barely move the needle.

But then on the other hand, I also want to buy a Steam Machine for exactly the same reason you do, and so that's a 2 out of 2 100% sample, and so I agree with you.

Let's just hope that Tylenol has been putting in some numbers lately, cause I want this thing to succeed.

 

[Fahdis]

Relevant stats from the Steam hardware survey

-The top 30% of GPUs are in the 3060/4060 GPU range.

-73% game at 1080p or 1440p.

-4.65% game at 4k

-33% have 8GB VRAM

-28% have 6 core CPUs

-41% have 16GB system RAM

Valve is clearly going after the HTPC crowd with this, but I would not be surprised if this gets a lot of interest from entry level desktop PC gamers, particularly the folks who don't want to build their own PC. If it comes in at under $600 then you will be hard pressed to find a prebuilt with similar specs at that price.

Look at this damned slut giving us free knowledge. Most of these plebs on GAF don't deserve it. Also, I have 32GB RAM. I am superior.

 

[Topher]

Also, I have 32GB RAM. I am superior.

Sounds like you are compensating.

Is 5.11" considered fine? Asking for a friend.