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Monitoring the situation in Iran

Lets put a few warheads on foreheads. Hit barracks, any logistic bases, and hammer any type of reserve training or reinforcement areas.

Lock these people in with the civilians and let them do as they see fit.

You can only be a good man until bad people will not allow it. Then you must become worse so future generations have the choice again.
 
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Lets put a few warheads on foreheads. Hit barracks, any logistic bases, and hammer any type of reserve training or reinforcement areas.

Lock these people in with the civilians and let them do as they see fit.

You can only be a good man until bad people will not allow it. Then you must become worse so future generations have the choice again.
I think the US is skittish to start blowing up the army because its the Army thats gonna enforce and secure the country under a new regime. It's not like there is a big group waiting to flood in, it'll be a couple of guys with lines of credit. So after Iraq/Afghanistan where dismantling the existing government labor pool (aka the army) led to disaster, I think this time they are hoping for a (mostly peaceful) coup and later transfer of power to a pseudo-elected semi-secular person/group.
 
So the death toll could be as "low" as 1,850 and as high as 12,00-20,000 depending on the source . .
And Iraq might have had WMDs…

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Article:
China and Iran, along with Russia and North Korea, comprise an unofficial axis called "Crink" by some Western officials, nations brought together in part by a shared wish to push back against the U.S. China has helped Russia prop up its isolated economy and provide it with dual-use materials to build its military; Iran has supplied Russia with ammunition and helped it develop drones for use in the Ukraine war, where North Korea sent thousands of soldiers to fight alongside Moscow's.

After Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran last year, the other Crink nations did little to come to Iran's aid. China remained concerned about exposing its banks and key companies to sanctions from the U.S. and Europe.

Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year economic cooperation agreement in 2021 that called for China to invest $400 billion across Iran's economy in exchange for a steady supply of discounted oil. Iranian officials have urged China to do more to implement the deal, which has seen limited results amid continuing sanctions pressure.
[...]
But appeals from Iranian officials for more help from China have been met with scathing criticism on Chinese social media, Tuvia Gering, a China researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, wrote in his newsletter Discourse Power on Monday.

He highlighted a post by Zhanhao, a popular nationalist-leaning account on WeChat, that sharply expressed such sentiment.

"Iran continues to expect China to take the bullet for it," the post read. "That's pure fantasy!"



Crink :lollipop-medical:
 


Article:
U.S. President Donald J. Trump speaking about potential intervention in Iran during an exclusive interview tonight with Tony Dokoupil of CBS News:

Dokoupil: "Well, now we're hearing that they're [Iran] going to start hanging protesters tomorrow. So it comes back to the question, have they crossed your red line or has the line moved?"

Trump: "I haven't heard about the hanging. If they hang them, you're going to see some things that - I don't know what your, where you come from and what your thought process is - but you'll perhaps be very happy."

Dokoupil: "What do you mean by that?"

Trump: "We will take very strong action. If they do such a thing, we will take very strong action."

Dokoupil: "And this strong action you're talking about, what's the end game?"

Trump: "The end game is to win. I like winning. And we're winning."

Dokoupil: "How do you define that in Iran?"

Trump: "Well, let's define it in Venezuela. Let's define it with al-Baghdadi. He was wiped out. Let's define it with Soleimani. And let's define it in Iran, where we wiped out their Iran nuclear threat in a period of about fifteen minutes once the B-2s got there. And that was a complete obliteration, as it turns out, which is what I said initially. Then some questioned it, and they said, you know, Trump was right. So we've been right about everything. We don't want to see what's happening in Iran happen. And, you know, if they want to have protests, that's one thing. When they start killing thousands of people, and now you're telling me about hanging, we'll see how that works out for them. It's not going to work out good."
 

Article:
China and Iran, along with Russia and North Korea, comprise an unofficial axis called "Crink" by some Western officials, nations brought together in part by a shared wish to push back against the U.S. China has helped Russia prop up its isolated economy and provide it with dual-use materials to build its military; Iran has supplied Russia with ammunition and helped it develop drones for use in the Ukraine war, where North Korea sent thousands of soldiers to fight alongside Moscow's.

After Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran last year, the other Crink nations did little to come to Iran's aid. China remained concerned about exposing its banks and key companies to sanctions from the U.S. and Europe.

Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year economic cooperation agreement in 2021 that called for China to invest $400 billion across Iran's economy in exchange for a steady supply of discounted oil. Iranian officials have urged China to do more to implement the deal, which has seen limited results amid continuing sanctions pressure.
[...]
But appeals from Iranian officials for more help from China have been met with scathing criticism on Chinese social media, Tuvia Gering, a China researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, wrote in his newsletter Discourse Power on Monday.

He highlighted a post by Zhanhao, a popular nationalist-leaning account on WeChat, that sharply expressed such sentiment.

"Iran continues to expect China to take the bullet for it," the post read. "That's pure fantasy!"



Crink :lollipop-medical:

Oof we went from "Axis Powers" to "Axis of Evil" to Crink.

No more cool names for the bad guys I guess.
 
Yeah. The world isn't looking very multipolar right now, at any rate.
Well to be fair, the world multipolar only because USA is shackled by the international law and the "moral superiority". International law shackled USA from seizing tankers and dealing with the cartels, and the "moral superiority" prevents USA from actually solving problems and sometimes creates problems like "installing democracies", instead of talking about the.
 
"Then some questioned it, and they said, you know, Trump was right. So we've been right about everything."

😂

Ah, I wish that were true. But alas...that's not how the world works ( in either sense).

Yet if he's right about this, then that alone would already be worth congratulations from me.

Trump is talking a lot about Iran today, which is good, but it does raise expectations...so I sincerely wish that will be reflected in the news sooner rather than later.
 
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The possibility of war is 30-50% it could become a major conflict
It wouldn't be a conflict. USA is just 50 years ahead of nearly everyone in military.

The Iraqis in 1991had one of the largest armies and amount of armour in the world and got beat in weeks.
These clown countries buy systems from places like Russia but don't know how to effectively use them.

If Iran had s300 and even some s400 surely they could score a single kill on a single Israeli jet. They were using f16s FFS.

If USA did some targeted strikes and Iran did some real retaliation. It would be over in a flash if the USA decided to escalate it.
 
It wouldn't be a conflict. USA is just 50 years ahead of nearly everyone in military.

The Iraqis in 1991had one of the largest armies and amount of armour in the world and got beat in weeks.
These clown countries buy systems from places like Russia but don't know how to effectively use them.

If Iran had s300 and even some s400 surely they could score a single kill on a single Israeli jet. They were using f16s FFS.

If USA did some targeted strikes and Iran did some real retaliation. It would be over in a flash if the USA decided to escalate it.
The crazy thing thing too about the US military destroying the opposition is that those overseas forces of soldiers, jets and warships are only a fraction of what they got. And they arent even doing crazy shit like nukes like during WWII. They are the invading army which SHOULD be the side getting picked apart before they succeed. Or they fail outright.

Just imagine how much faster it'd be if an invading force tried to attack continental USA. They wouldnt even make it across the oceans.
 
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It wouldn't be a conflict. USA is just 50 years ahead of nearly everyone in military.

The Iraqis in 1991had one of the largest armies and amount of armour in the world and got beat in weeks.
These clown countries buy systems from places like Russia but don't know how to effectively use them.

If Iran had s300 and even some s400 surely they could score a single kill on a single Israeli jet. They were using f16s FFS.

If USA did some targeted strikes and Iran did some real retaliation. It would be over in a flash if the USA decided to escalate it.

Good point about Iran not downing a single Israeli jet.

Their air defences will be even more pathetic now.
 
Should add though that their ballistic missiles did cause quite a bit of chaos to parts of Israel and that the US and other Gulf army bases would be at major risk until the regime is toppled.
 
One benefit of spending the largest chunk of tax payer money on it for decades I suppose.

It's not just money. It's know-how in operation and doctrine. Been practicing constantly. China wants to have 8-9 aircraft carriers by 2040, but anyone can buy a Ducati but you ain't gonna ride like Valentino Rossi.
 
Whats more amazing is how the Academia reacted to the Ayatollah.

SEk9r84uR9GW7k4Q.jpg
There is that word, "progressive," which in political terms always has the opposite meaning. "Regressive" are the exact kinds of results you can expect from people operating under that particular moniker.
 
There is that word, "progressive," which in political terms always has the opposite meaning. "Regressive" are the exact kinds of results you can expect from people operating under that particular moniker.
You can progress towards regression.

"Progression" doesn't always mean positive like propagated. It's all contextual, they just prey on ignorance and naivety.
 
Yeah. The world isn't looking very multipolar right now, at any rate.

Sorry I'm late to respond here, but it's funny I read this right as I was thinking about something I heard earlier. About the world being multipolar. I agree with you. Kinda hard to say that when you take an honest look at everything going on right now. When you filter the emotional, kneejerk reactions and actually take it all in.
 
Whats more amazing is how the Academia reacted to the Ayatollah.

SEk9r84uR9GW7k4Q.jpg

That might even have been briefly true in terms of the initial figures and appointments, because the 1979 revolution wasn't only won by the religious fanatics alone.

In other words, they didn't consolidate full power immediately. Therefore, they did have some more diverse representation in comparison to what the current theocratic Iranian government looks like.

Mind you, it didn't take too long for things to shift in another direction. However, it was still a severe misjudgment of the Ayatollah himself.

Oriana Fallaci's classic interview with Khomeini was quite revealing at the time and remains relevant today:


In light of recent events, it's almost ghastly humorous at points.
 
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My plan would be to parachute in a bunch of old small arms/ammo across all cities during riot times but honestly I've no idea how practical that plan would be.
I feel so bad for the people suffering and being killed there... it's really racked my mind I can't stand it.
Hope that regime goes out with a slow and painful demise, nothing but evil.
 
Oof we went from "Axis Powers" to "Axis of Evil" to Crink.

No more cool names for the bad guys I guess.

Axis of Oil? Well I guess not since China doesn't have any.
Yeah. The world isn't looking very multipolar right now, at any rate.

Can't believe people romanticise that shit. Did everyone forget the multipolar world that lead to WW1 and multipolarity anarchy in the interwar prior before WW2?

Insane.

Feels like it's just Anti-American resentment masquerading as theory of fairness.

You can progress towards regression.

"Progression" doesn't always mean positive like propagated. It's all contextual, they just prey on ignorance and naivety.

Revolutionaries: Can't be worse than the Shah
The Ayatollahs: Hold our Halal Non-Alcoholic Zima


Come on China, lets party.
 
It's not just money. It's know-how in operation and doctrine. Been practicing constantly. China wants to have 8-9 aircraft carriers by 2040, but anyone can buy a Ducati but you ain't gonna ride like Valentino Rossi.
Plus China suffers from hierarchy syndrome where they often afraid to improvise and wait for oders to a T.

Axis of Oil? Well I guess not since China doesn't have any.
Gang of ????
 
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My plan would be to parachute in a bunch of old small arms/ammo across all cities during riot times but honestly I've no idea how practical that plan would be.
I feel so bad for the people suffering and being killed there... it's really racked my mind I can't stand it.
Hope that regime goes out with a slow and painful demise, nothing but evil.
I know, it's impossible to watch evil violent oppression and not want to do SOMETHING about it. I pray that those with the power to do something choose the right path, even if I don't know what that is. Unfortunately, most of what we can do on here is performative.
Gang of ????

Authors of Blood? Which would make Europe Tren de Blablabla.
 
No need to make a complex operation like the US did in Venezuela.
Just send a few missiles to blow up Khomeini and his gang of thugs, and let the Iranian people do the rest.
 
Its just not historically what the yanks have done, I think even the B2 raids of last year used EF-18s for the suppression of air defences.

They have achieved surprise very well in the last few years (I man really well), so maybe this will what makes Iran lower their guard right now before a massed US Airforce attack.
 
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It wouldn't be a conflict. USA is just 50 years ahead of nearly everyone in military.


Dude, this is GI Joe crap. Sorry to break it to you and other eagles, but in a world with nukes, that theoritecally super dupper military means that you can only bully nations WITHOUT nuclear power.

Thank Oppenheimer and his psycho gang for creating a weapon that can mass destruct us with little effort. There can't be any major conflict in the world between superpowers unless they have agreed on the rules of engagement beforehand.
 
Dude, this is GI Joe crap. Sorry to break it to you and other eagles, but in a world with nukes, that theoritecally super dupper military means that you can only bully nations WITHOUT nuclear power.

Thank Oppenheimer and his psycho gang for creating a weapon that can mass destruct us with little effort. There can't be any major conflict in the world between superpowers unless they have agreed on the rules of engagement beforehand.

A big reason that the large powers test each other through proxies
 
No need to make a complex operation like the US did in Venezuela.
To be fair it is very hard to in Iran. Sizes, landscape and such are just too different.

Just send a few missiles to blow up Khomeini and his gang of thugs, and let the Iranian people do the rest.
That's not enough unfortunately. They will install a different ayatollah, who will be weaker internally but nothing will change. The internal elites are not doing anything. That's the main problem. And the foreign elites - like Pahlavi - has no influence on army and police within. That's the challenge. Protesters should either gain more power to a point where military has to switch sides, or they will lose. Foreign support won't change much.
 
Dude, this is GI Joe crap. Sorry to break it to you and other eagles, but in a world with nukes, that theoritecally super dupper military means that you can only bully nations WITHOUT nuclear power.

Thank Oppenheimer and his psycho gang for creating a weapon that can mass destruct us with little effort. There can't be any major conflict in the world between superpowers unless they have agreed on the rules of engagement beforehand.
Considering Russia can't beat Ukraine and now

only relies on human meatshields, artillery, mines and drones. I can safely say if the USA went all in, in a conventional war against Russia forces in Ukraine they would push Russia out of Ukraine within months.

These clowns do not know how to fight and their gear is crap.

But what you bringing nukes into the conversation? I was obviously talking about a conventional sense.
CHina is the only country that could actually hold its own against the USA in a conventional war. Even then the Chinese haven't fought a war since they got gaped by Vietnam.
 
It is commendable that the protesters were able to last as long as they did. Considering that they now have become more militarized, there is a probability that they might win. But still as long as they don't have leaders and the probabilty is low, the best they can achieve is to become guerillas or some independent group.
 
CHina is the only country that could actually hold its own against the USA in a conventional war. Even then the Chinese haven't fought a war since they got gaped by Vietnam.
Its ridiculous to think that the USA could beat China in a land war and occupy them without people in China actually wanting the US to take over. USA could strike the coastal cities and do a lot of damage but the Chinese are ready for that.
 
America and China are too large to ever occupy but in a conventional war over Taiwan for example America would push Chinas shit in but unlike a lot of recent conflicts the State will take a lot more casualties. It doesn't take a lot of skill or courage to launch 500 missiles at a US Navy bottle group and all it takes is 1 or 2 to get though to start killing people.
 
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