• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

Monitoring the situation in Iran




I have got update from inside Iran for those who are genuinely worried.

Mainstream media is spreading nonsense to exploit your worry and save the regime.

My mom called this morning, she had to call cause internet's cut again (it is a war crime). Explosions are louder than the 12-day war, but everyone is calm: strikes are precise, mostly away from homes. For nearby targets (mosques, IRGC/Basij bases in neighborhoods), people get phone warnings to evacuate first,consistent with 12 day war.

Even near Persian new year holidays, families are staying home as President @realDonaldTrump and Prince @PahlaviReza advised, avoiding schools and public spots because the regime uses them as human shields.

That's why we in exile thank @POTUS and @netanyahu: they go to great lengths to protect civilians while the regime deliberately hits crowded areas to cause maximum casualties, not just in Israel, but also in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and Qatar.

Our only real worries: the regime itself, their faulty Chinese missiles, and their constant use of human shields.

Remember 2020: after striking the US base in Iraq, they shot down a civilian Iranian plane full of families and kids, hoping Trump would hit back so they could play victim (a Russian-style tactic). They miscalculated, Trump didn't retaliate and we painfully saw what this regime is truly capable of.

Stay calm. No one wants war, but this cancer leaves no other option but surgery.

Be patient, stay hopeful, and pray for American & Israeli heroes and for Iranians to come through safely.

And please share this video with your friends. You shouldn't trust MSM on this topic. My instagram id is @iranidaturan

 
Looks like they are really coming after the UAE with tons of missiles and drones today.

My sister and some others I know are out there so I hope to god they destroy their remaining missile capabilities.

I know they've gone on the record to say they've destroyed many of them, but it's not enough yet.
 
The U.S. navy needs to get the strait of hormuz open and functioning again, and really quickly. There's going to be enormous global pressure to end this conflict if traffic in the strait isn't flowing by early next week.

I know the U.S. says they're going to provide insurance and escort oil tankers, but they're not moving yet.
 
I like this open hostility. And people are wondering why rest of the world don't like USA and Americans right now?
As a European I gotta admit, he's not wrong. European countries are pretty useless. There's no union whatsoever, every country makes its own rules and regulations, all countries are facing a big problem with illegal migration even though most deny it and societies are devided like never before in almost all countries as well.

And their passive behavior in almost all important matters will ultimately weaken all european countries and turn them into unimportant allies. It's Trumps second term, the signs were crystal clear about what he wants us to do and our governments still rely heavily on the US as our ally even though we're ignorant enough to not do anything on our side for improving the relationship with them. So yes, Europoor hits the nail on its head.
 
Last edited:
I would trust the IAEA over any journalist.
Did you read my lengthy post, including the link provided? Your argument that Netanyahu has been crying wolf for decades is, as far as I'm concerned, debunked.
Then in what way has Netanyahu been crying wolf for decades?
In the way where he says the threat is imminent multiple times over many years in order to further Israel's imperialist goals, get more money from the USA, and manipulate public opinion when time after time nothing ends up happening, and the saber rattling makes the situation worse off than before.

I didn't provide sources earlier because I assumed this was common knowledge, but on a second reading I'm not sure if it really is.


But when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, there was no evidence that Iran was engaged in nuclear activities that would pose an imminent threat to the United States. Neither U.S. President Donald Trump nor Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented any evidence of an ongoing weaponization effort and, in a March 2 press conference, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said "we don't see a structured program to manufacture nuclear weapons" in Iran. The following day, in an interview with CNN, Grossi was asked if "the Iranians were days or weeks away from building a bomb." His response was "no."





Do you trust the IAEA now?

Of course the absence of evidence is not the same as the evidence of absence, and of course they're obviously still trying to develop nukes in the long term, but that's because we're threatening to blow them up all the time and they want a deterrent. The same reasoning and justification we use for ourselves. This is not a problem that gets better through war. This is a problem that gets worse through war because it only ramps up Iran's (and neighboring hostile states') desire to acquire nukes. That's why negotiations are key and de-escalation is key.

Many Americans elected someone who they thought was a great negotiator to get this objective achieved through peace not war, but that turned out to not be the case after all. He didn't even bother trying to make a deal and attacked because of a "feeling based on fact". Very Orwellian double speak. Israel wanted to attack Iran regardless and he couldn't stop them. That's not deal-making. That's subservience.








 
Baby GIF by Beithoven
 
As a European I gotta admit, he's not wrong. European countries are pretty useless. There's no union whatsoever, every country makes its own rules and regulations, all countries are facing a big problem with illegal migration even though most deny it and societies are devided like never before in almost all countries as well.

And their passive behavior in almost all important matters will ultimately weaken all european countries and turn them into unimportant allies. It's Trumps second term, the signs were crystal clear about what he wants us to do and our governments still rely heavily on the US as our ally even though we're ignorant enough to not do anything on our side for improving the relationship with them. So yes, Europoor hits the nail on its head.

Europe send more help to Ukraine than USA did (and USA signed Budapest memorandum), that war is far more important to Europe than anything that happens outside of continent.

I fully agree that Europe is pathetic in many aspects but looks like there is a major shift in policy when it comes to military power (thanks to Ukraine war and Trump attacking piss poor defense budgets) at least. There are many things that need improvements and I personally despise left wing Western European governments (immigration policy).

At the same time USA is not exactly doing great under Trump, he made a lot of dumb decisions (like tariffs) - his actions are also responsible for what is happening now between allies (Europe is starting to decouple from USA in many aspects, not just military).

Personally I think Iran regime needed to go, they were destabilizing the region for far too long, but is this the best way to do it, will it end up with regime change? We will see, so far many attempts to "fix" ME countries (by both USA and Europe) failed spectacularly and that is one of the main reasons why Europe was "attacked" by immigrants in the first place.
 
I didn't provide sources earlier because I assumed this was common knowledge, but on a second reading I'm not sure if it really is.








Do you trust the IAEA now?

Of course the absence of evidence is not the same as the evidence of absence, and of course they're obviously still trying to develop nukes in the long term, but that's because we're threatening to blow them up all the time and they want a deterrent. The same reasoning and justification we use for ourselves. This is not a problem that gets better through war. This is a problem that gets worse through war because it only ramps up Iran's (and neighboring hostile states') desire to acquire nukes. That's why negotiations are key and de-escalation is key.

Many Americans elected someone who they thought was a great negotiator to get this objective achieved through peace not war, but that turned out to not be the case after all. He didn't even bother trying to make a deal and attacked because of a "feeling based on fact". Very Orwellian double speak. Israel wanted to attack Iran regardless and he couldn't stop them. That's not deal-making. That's subservience.









You expound on things in this thread, but have no actual idea what you are talking about.

You realize how our asset intellegence flow works, correct?

Iran gave no option.

Please give me your assessment of the situation and what logistics, bullets beans and bandages, or how you would use BAMCIS to create an operational flow, how units are used, what information gets spread among units and work up training and what bases to use for said work ups.

Would your plan be to let them keep reigning terror around world, use nuclear or dirty bombs first and kill thousands, then you do something.

Our assessment flow through cables down to commanders and the planning phase is in depth, very coordinated with allies, etc.

Please articulate what your assessment is and be concise. I'm very tired of reading this tripe.

I don't care how Trump looks, if he wins or loses, diesfrom a heart attack or anything else, I care that a child in Iran may take a free breathe and that is all.
 
Last edited:
The U.S. navy needs to get the strait of hormuz open and functioning again, and really quickly. There's going to be enormous global pressure to end this conflict if traffic in the strait isn't flowing by early next week.

I know the U.S. says they're going to provide insurance and escort oil tankers, but they're not moving yet.

Much easier said than done. If the US navy appears anywhere close they'll be bombarded with drones and missiles. That's almost the same as "boots on the ground" with the same risk of large numbers of US soldiers dying.
 
The U.S. navy needs to get the strait of hormuz open and functioning again, and really quickly. There's going to be enormous global pressure to end this conflict if traffic in the strait isn't flowing by early next week.
There won't be much pressure to end the conflict - nobody wants to keep IRGC alive anymore. Too much risk so the bombings will continue until the morale improves.
 
You expound on things in this thread, but have no actual idea what you are talking about.
And you do?

Would your plan be to let them keep reigning terror around world, use nuclear or dirty bombs first and kill thousands
Of course not, and thinking that's the only option is part of your tunnel vision.

I don't care how Trump looks, if he wins or loses, does from a heart attack or anything else,
Then you've already bought into the propaganda.
 
That's why we in exile thank @POTUS and @netanyahu: they go to great lengths to protect civilians while the regime deliberately hits crowded areas to cause maximum casualties, not just in Israel, but also in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and Qatar.
That's why it has always been nonsense with all those bobmbings in Gaza and BBC crying about millions of dead due to Israel bombing everywhere. The attacks have always been relative precise because nothing fuels anger more than resentment. More victims - more people willing to join the ranks of Hamas and such.
 
And you do?


Of course not, and thinking that's the only option is part of your tunnel vision.


Then you've already bought into the propaganda.
Yes, I do know what I'm talking about as I've been in combat. I've made operational decisions, I've made all of this through 17 years and 5 combat deployments.

You?

And I don't care about Trump at all, like I said.
 
Last edited:
Yes, I do know what I'm talking about as I've been in combat. I've made operational decisions, I'm made all of this through 17 years and 5 combat deployments.
Cool. You're just another avatar on the internet as far as I'm concerned, just like me and everyone else. That's why I cite sources. Using ourselves as sources is stupid. We're not authorities.

And I don't care about Trump at all, like I said.
You don't have to care about him one way or another to see the discrepancies in his words and actions as well as the way history is repeating itself. The fact that you make so much effort to tell us how much you don't care is telling.
 
That's why it has always been nonsense with all those bobmbings in Gaza and BBC crying about millions of dead due to Israel bombing everywhere. The attacks have always been relative precise because nothing fuels anger more than resentment. More victims - more people willing to join the ranks of Hamas and such.
Try to explain the difference between an urban warfare and an open battlefield to a lefty - good luck.
 
Try to explain the difference between an urban warfare and an open battlefield to a lefty - good luck.
The problem while arguing with the left is that they don't really argue - they just want you to accept their opinion. They don't argue. They don't even pretend to be obtuse or anything - they just genuinely believe that they are correct and nothing can change that until their stance falls like Hindenburg. It is like with communism - "it failed because it was not done properly - but this time it will work". Useless to argue.
 
Last edited:
The problem while arguing with the left is that they don't really argue - they just want you to accept their opinion. They don't argue. They don't even pretend to be obtuse or anything - they just genuinely believe that they are correct and nothing can change that until their stance falls like Hindenburg. It is like with communism - "it failed because it was not done properly - but this time it will work". Useless to argue.
It's not like they decide not to argue, they can't. Because facts don't care about feelings. And their ferlings don't care about facts.
 
He was right when he characterised NATO allies as preferring to stay a little off the front lines, and that is playing out again now. It was harsh to a couple of members, but it was a fair assessment of the group collectively.

The position of most of NATO seems to be that they support the objective, and want the US to succeed in that objective for their own benefit just as much as for America's, but they'd really rather not have to incur any risk in helping achieve that objective. The UK was not in that group previously but has now joined it under Starmberlain. Maybe the French will get actively involved when their carrier arrives, we'll see.
This is the US's and Israel's war occuring outside of NATO, of course you are going to get 'support' and not full on military forces. When the UK was at war with Argentina, the US gave support but they weren't going to commit troops to someone else's war.
 
This is the US's and Israel's war occuring outside of NATO, of course you are going to get 'support' and not full on military forces. When the UK was at war with Argentina, the US gave support but they weren't going to commit troops to someone else's war.
The thing is that USA hasn't asked for that either - just for the usage of bases. Like, USA is not even in favor of the Gulf Countries engaging into the conflict directly. Like Kuwait shot more american planes due to friendly fire than Iran. Arguably USA + Israel cooperation and coordination is so impressive, that other countries in the sky or in the sea might just become an obstacle themselves.

I wonder though - considering the air force and naval force results - if the troops are willing to go into Iran. I think some of them are probably even itching to do that. Granted, I think Israel will have some special forces there (we already heard of them doing some operations there).
 
Last edited:
Cool. You're just another avatar on the internet as far as I'm concerned, just like me and everyone else. That's why I cite sources. Using ourselves as sources is stupid. We're not authorities.


You don't have to care about him one way or another to see the discrepancies in his words and actions as well as the way history is repeating itself. The fact that you make so much effort to tell us how much you don't care is telling.

Assessments change daily in the Middle East. Stop with the nonsense. You have zero cultural insight on how tribes and religious sects work over in the Middle East areas.

Political alliances shift by money, by slavery, by coercion from terrorists in those regions. Meaning military assessments change on the fly also.

You have to use regional politics, security, and history to guide assesments, advise government agencies, etc. The Middle East is not like most regions where political winds shift on the basis of voters choosing a new leader.

Even if Trump said it a week ago, intelligence would not be the same today for any future forecasting.

I care about the children and women raped in Iran daily and live as slaves. It's why I kept volunteering to go back to the Middle East.

Have a good day.
 
Last edited:
This is the US's and Israel's war ... someone else's war.
Iran impacted and will continue to impact the the entire world with that mindset. Especially every single NATO country where they've sponsored many attacks that killed many innocent people with the radicals let in.

Constantly meddling and sponsoring assassination attempts, civilian attacks, etc., in NATO countries. They've been declared war on the west for 47 years and counting.

This is not comparable to "Argentina" at all, in the slightest.

Clanker edition:


Yes, Iran has been identified by European intelligence agencies and international reports as being responsible for various terrorist plots, assassination attempts, and acts of violence in Europe, particularly targeting dissidents and, in some cases, Israeli or Jewish targets. These operations often involve the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security.

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - ICCT
Key Details on Iranian Operations in Europe:
  • Targeting Dissidents and Opposition: Iran has historically and recently targeted Iranian exiles and dissident groups in Europe, such as the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK). In 2018, an Iranian diplomat was convicted in Belgium for his role in a plot to bomb a rally near Paris.
  • Use of Criminal Networks: Recent reports highlight that Iran leverages organized crime gangs (e.g., Foxtrot, Rumba) in Europe to conduct attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets, as well as to target dissidents, particularly in Sweden and Belgium.
  • Assassination Plots: Intelligence reports have linked Tehran to several assassination attempts in Europe, including incidents in 2023 and 2024, such as the shooting outside the Israeli embassy in Stockholm and attacks on other targets, including opposition media figures.
  • Rise in Activity: MI5 (UK security service) has flagged a high volume of potentially lethal, Iran-backed plots in the UK.
  • EU Response: Due to these activities, including a brutal crackdown on internal protests, the European Union has moved to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
    International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - ICCT
Historical Context
Iran's involvement in terrorism in Europe dates back to the 1980s, when it targeted dissidents and, in some cases, European countries directly involved in regional conflicts. The tactics have evolved from direct involvement to more frequently using proxies or hired criminals to maintain plausible deniability.

 
You have zero cultural insight on how tribes and religious sects work over in the Middle East areas.
Neither do you.

What I do see is a pattern of war profiteering with the same song and dance that has been tried before and the same people lapping it up again as if we already haven't been through this as well as the exorbitant cost to the American taxpayer being caused by the very people who tout fiscal responsibility as a cornerstone of their principles.
 
As a characterisation of the contribution of NATO allies collectively it was correct. Like I said, it was harsh to some individual NATO allies.


I didn't take his statement as a comment on the bravery of any given individual. It was a comment on the manner in which the NATO allies -at the state level- prefer to contribute.

A comment which was strongly rebuffed at the time, but is playing out again now, albeit not strictly in a NATO context.

I think countries assisting in a defensive perimeter is smart. They weren't included in war planning and the end game didn't seem thought out. I'm not sure adding 10 other countries to join in to bomb targets adds much beyond symbolism and makes failed coordination and friendly fire (which already took down 3 of US's F-15 jets) more likely. Spain should've giving US its air bases though. Spain is a letdown.
 
I didn't provide sources earlier because I assumed this was common knowledge, but on a second reading I'm not sure if it really is.








Do you trust the IAEA now?

Of course the absence of evidence is not the same as the evidence of absence, and of course they're obviously still trying to develop nukes in the long term, but that's because we're threatening to blow them up all the time and they want a deterrent. The same reasoning and justification we use for ourselves. This is not a problem that gets better through war. This is a problem that gets worse through war because it only ramps up Iran's (and neighboring hostile states') desire to acquire nukes. That's why negotiations are key and de-escalation is key.

Many Americans elected someone who they thought was a great negotiator to get this objective achieved through peace not war, but that turned out to not be the case after all. He didn't even bother trying to make a deal and attacked because of a "feeling based on fact". Very Orwellian double speak. Israel wanted to attack Iran regardless and he couldn't stop them. That's not deal-making. That's subservience.









I trust the IAEA over any journalist, is what I said. That was regarding the AMAD program.

As far as the regime's current objectives, there is this:



And this:



And I don't think any more needs to be said on the matter.

To me, an American-Israeli, this is sufficient evidence. You may require different evidence, we don't have to see eye to eye on this.
 
Last edited:
I trust the IAEA over any journalist, is what I said. That was regarding the AMAD program.

As far as the regime's current objectives, there is this:



And this:



And I don't think any more needs to be said on the matter.

To me, an American-Israeli, this is sufficient evidence. You may require different evidence, we don't have to see eye to eye on this.


Sounds like moving the goalposts. I've always acknowledged Iran's intentions and capacity to develop nukes. It's not the case that anything more needs to be said about the matter because that denies all of the red flags regarding the entire operation. The dog wagging and hypocrisy are all on full display.
 
I trust the IAEA over any journalist, is what I said. That was regarding the AMAD program.

As far as the regime's current objectives, there is this:



And this:



And I don't think any more needs to be said on the matter.

To me, an American-Israeli, this is sufficient evidence. You may require different evidence, we don't have to see eye to eye on this.

It's literally out of the horses mouth. 🤷‍♀️
 
Sounds like moving the goalposts. I've always acknowledged Iran's intentions and capacity to develop nukes. It's not the case that anything more needs to be said about the matter because that denies all of the red flags regarding the entire operation. The dog wagging and hypocrisy are all on full display.
What are talking about?
You bring in opinion pieces about March 2026 to try and change my mind about something the IAEA said in 2005. I brought that in response to some journalist who made the claim that the Iranian nuclear program was nothing more than Netanyahu crying wolf. I've also already explained that he wasn't the only Israeli PM to be aware of the Iranian program or speak about it publicly.

In Israel, Iran has been a known threat ever since the Islamic Revolution. If you want to argue that the only reason that happened was because of British/CIA interference, together with French far-left naivety, then you're still admitting they royally screwed half the Middle East by inadvertently bringing rise to an insane, radical regime that would rather spend decades funding equally poisonous proxy armies of deranged terrorists to ruin the lives of Lebanese, Syrians, Iraqis, Egyptians Palestinians and Israelis throughout the region than lead its own citizenship towards civility and enlightenment.
 
Last edited:
What I talking about is that you said my claim about the imminence of the threat is debunked, and then I showed you a source that you said you trust that stated it's not that imminent.
Your tunnel vision is messing with your priorities. Read my last reply again, especially the second part. The harm caused to the middle east by the Islamic Republic is bigger than the self hate some people in the west have for themselves.
 
Last edited:


Thanks bro

See, this is Trumps language. "I have this, you want it; I want this, you have it, let's make a deal" is the talk he can understand. Zelensky can probably offset a lot of the loans he's undertaken or "pay back credit" but giving over a lot of specialized anti-drone expertise and equipment. Plus disrupting Iran undoubtedly disrupts China and Russia, which helps him as well. Win win win all around I think.
 
And I quoted an even better source saying that it is. Case closed.
Hardly. But if you're not going to engage on the point we're supposed to be engaged about, not that Iran is aiming to develop a nuke, but the actual imminence of the threat, the best way to deal with it, and if that justifies bombing them preemptively, then so be it.
 
tell that to Starmer
As far as I know the British have no clear idea why Trump initated, although no one likes Iran regime here. Not liking is different to initiating war. Is there solid evidence supporting his verbal reasons for starting publically available.

The British are.allowing Usa to use Brirish air bases for this conflict because of our special relationship and we are helping defend not attack.
 

Yeah, this is the system of government Trump wants to break. Any religious rule of Iran is gonna be a no-go, I think. They will likely be forced to draft a new constitution with a secular orientation and no "supreme leader" component. Regular elections, maybe even some separation of church/mosque and state (which may be culturally anathema at this point). Who ever the president will be is gonna be stuck trying to rebuild Iran's military for YEARS whilst fending off all it's neighbors, probably ceding territory as it does so. Oil will go through some sort of US monitored brokerage to prevent it being sold to "the bad guys", whomever they may be with the upside of keeping oil prices high enough for US domestic manufacture to stay nice and profitable.
 
Top Bottom