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Monitoring the situation in Iran

DeepEnigma said:
Iran impacted and will continue to impact the the entire world with that mindset. Especially every single NATO country where they've sponsored many attacks that killed many innocent people with the radicals let in.

Constantly meddling and sponsoring assassination attempts, civilian attacks, etc., in NATO countries. They've been declared war on the west for 47 years and counting.

This is not comparable to "Argentina" at all, in the slightest.

Clanker edition:

Yes, Iran has been identified by European intelligence agencies and international reports as being responsible for various terrorist plots, assassination attempts, and acts of violence in Europe, particularly targeting dissidents and, in some cases, Israeli or Jewish targets. These operations often involve the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security.

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - ICCT
Key Details on Iranian Operations in Europe:
  • Targeting Dissidents and Opposition: Iran has historically and recently targeted Iranian exiles and dissident groups in Europe, such as the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK). In 2018, an Iranian diplomat was convicted in Belgium for his role in a plot to bomb a rally near Paris.
  • Use of Criminal Networks: Recent reports highlight that Iran leverages organized crime gangs (e.g., Foxtrot, Rumba) in Europe to conduct attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets, as well as to target dissidents, particularly in Sweden and Belgium.
  • Assassination Plots: Intelligence reports have linked Tehran to several assassination attempts in Europe, including incidents in 2023 and 2024, such as the shooting outside the Israeli embassy in Stockholm and attacks on other targets, including opposition media figures.
  • Rise in Activity: MI5 (UK security service) has flagged a high volume of potentially lethal, Iran-backed plots in the UK.
  • EU Response: Due to these activities, including a brutal crackdown on internal protests, the European Union has moved to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
    International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - ICCT
Historical Context
Iran's involvement in terrorism in Europe dates back to the 1980s, when it targeted dissidents and, in some cases, European countries directly involved in regional conflicts. The tactics have evolved from direct involvement to more frequently using proxies or hired criminals to maintain plausible deniability.
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Its their enemy - doesn't mean its their war. Germany starts lobbing missiles at Russia - they better not be relying on US support. Hell Ukraine gets 'what are you going to do for us' support and they were literally invaded by Russia.
 
jason10mm said:
Yeah, this is the system of government Trump wants to break. Any religious rule of Iran is gonna be a no-go, I think. They will likely be forced to draft a new constitution with a secular orientation and no "supreme leader" component. Regular elections, maybe even some separation of church/mosque and state (which may be culturally anathema at this point). Who ever the president will be is gonna be stuck trying to rebuild Iran's military for YEARS whilst fending off all it's neighbors, probably ceding territory as it does so. Oil will go through some sort of US monitored brokerage to prevent it being sold to "the bad guys", whomever they may be with the upside of keeping oil prices high enough for US domestic manufacture to stay nice and profitable.
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I think in any case there will be some fragmentation of Iran. Though it really depends on the ground game - with kurds, azeri and balochs. It really depends on how the conflict develop. Too many upredictable factors. Maybe it is possible to get something like UK? Some autonomous regions, but common parliament and consitutional monarchy. The main problem is that the mainlan Iran has no real leader.

Sonik said:
lol, how desperate are they already if they're asking Zelensky? Weren't they supposed to have all this info before they invaded?
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Iran just went crazy and started attacked everybody 🤷‍♂️ Even the monarchies were surprised. And if they can ignore the attacks by delegating the defense supplies to other forces, it will save their own resources. Business.
 
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Sonik said:
lol, how desperate are they already if they're asking Zelensky? Weren't they supposed to have all this info before they invaded?
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It's not desperate, it's adjusting (cost) efficiencies.

Again, what we see in the public arena during war-time like this, usually has 'need to know' delays.

They more than likely already have been there and working together. Everyone is playing their role.
 
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ChuckeRearmed said:
I think in any case there will be some fragmentation of Iran. Though it really depends on the ground game - with kurds, azeri and balochs. It really depends on how the conflict develop. Too many upredictable factors. Maybe it is possible to get something like UK? Some autonomous regions, but common parliament and consitutional monarchy. The main problem is that the mainlan Iran has no real leader.
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Hopium is not a historically reliable war and political realignment strategy.
 
poppabk said:
This is the US's and Israel's war occuring outside of NATO, of course you are going to get 'support' and not full on military forces. When the UK was at war with Argentina, the US gave support but they weren't going to commit troops to someone else's war.
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It is of no consequence to anyone besides the UK and Argentina which of them governs the Falklands.

All NATO members benefit from Iran being prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons, many of them have openly acknowledged this and support that objective, but none so far are prepared to actively contribute other than 'a little back from the front lines'. I just find it interesting with how vehemently this characterisation by President Trump was denied, that they then pretty much proved his point at the first opportunity.

I don't think there's any 'of course' about it. They could pull their weight towards achieving an objective they will benefit from as much as the US, but instead have once again chosen to do the bare minimum and allow the US to take the risks for them.
 
At this point, I only see this ending in two ways. A peace deal or...

Racoon City:

oniBbJXeRijDKOOW.jpeg
 
DeepEnigma said:
It's not desperate, it's adjusting (cost) efficiencies.

Again, what we see in the public arena during war-time like this, usually has 'need to know' delays.

They more than likely already have been there and working together. Everyone is playing their role.
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The amount of people that think we are digesting world politics / military operation info in world time through social media and the media is hilariously high.

Geez.

So much goes on behind the scenes we don't know about. Citizens of the West are naive AF.
 
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winjer said:
Really strange period we live in....
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Not really. An extremist Sunni faction is poised to hate an extremist Shia regime. Plus, the game of alliances would probably shock those of us who still think there are heroes and villains when it comes to special interests, states and geopolitical conflicts...
 
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calico said:
It is of no consequence to anyone besides the UK and Argentina which of them governs the Falklands.

All NATO members benefit from Iran being prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons, many of them have openly acknowledged this and support that objective, but none so far are prepared to actively contribute other than 'a little back from the front lines'. I just find it interesting with how vehemently this characterisation by President Trump was denied, that they then pretty much proved his point at the first opportunity.

I don't think there's any 'of course' about it. They could pull their weight towards achieving an objective they will benefit from as much as the US, but instead have once again chosen to do the bare minimum and allow the US to take the risks for them.
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The NATO members who have voiced lukewarm support are basically the ones that rely on trade with the USA and don't want to risk upsetting Trump's fragile ego. The ones that don't have been free to speak their minds. Most importantly, none of them have provided actual support for the war.

near said:
At this point, I only see this ending in two ways. A peace deal or...
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I think the USA has made it clear how this will end. They'll dismantle Iran's military capabilities. The regime will stay in place and may have to deal with a civil war in the near future.
 
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EviLore said:
Using submarines is a war crime bro, pls stop :messenger_anxious:

KOAJvoXWll55l4JI.jpeg
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Things used to be different until the Laconia incident. Even Nazi submarines would pick up survivors from ships they'd sunk until US submarines started torpedoing German submarines involved in rescue missions. Pretty sad if you ask me.

en.wikipedia.org

Laconia incident - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
The Laconia incident had far-reaching consequences. Until then, it was common for U-boats to assist torpedoed survivors with food, water, simple medical care for the wounded, and a compass bearing to the nearest landmass. It was extremely rare for survivors to be brought on board, as space on a U-boat was barely enough for its own crew. On 17 September 1942, in response to the incident, Admiral Karl Dönitz issued an order named Triton Null, later known as the Laconia Order. In it, Dönitz prohibited U-boat crews from attempting rescues; survivors were to be left in the sea. Nevertheless, U-boats still occasionally provided aid for survivors.

At the Nuremberg trials held by the Allies in 1946, Dönitz was indicted for war crimes. The issuance of the Laconia Order was the centrepiece of the prosecution case, a decision that backfired badly. Its introduction allowed the defence to recount at length the numerous instances in which German submariners acted with humanity where in similar situations the Allies behaved callously. Dönitz pointed out that the order was a direct result of this callousness and the attack by U.S. aircraft on a rescue operation.
 
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sono said:
As far as I know the British have no clear idea why Trump initated, although no one likes Iran regime here. Not liking is different to initiating war. Is there solid evidence supporting his verbal reasons for starting publically available.

The British are.allowing Usa to use Brirish air bases for this conflict because of our special relationship and we are helping defend not attack.
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It's seemingly forgotten that there was a month's long build up to this thing where 'round the clock, American jets were flying from and being refueled on British bases.
 
DeepEnigma said:
Ukraine has gotten a metric F-ton of support.
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But not without having to sometimes beg for it, or give up mineral deals.
calico said:
It is of no consequence to anyone besides the UK and Argentina which of them governs the Falklands.

All NATO members benefit from Iran being prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons, many of them have openly acknowledged this and support that objective, but none so far are prepared to actively contribute other than 'a little back from the front lines'. I just find it interesting with how vehemently this characterisation by President Trump was denied, that they then pretty much proved his point at the first opportunity.

I don't think there's any 'of course' about it. They could pull their weight towards achieving an objective they will benefit from as much as the US, but instead have once again chosen to do the bare minimum and allow the US to take the risks for them.
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It was probably of consequence to Argentinians and especially the people on the Falkland islands.
The US and Israel started this war 7 days ago presumably without notifying other allies seeing as they are asking for access to airbases now. You act like other countries have been dragging their feet for months while the war goes on.
 
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