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Monitoring the situation in Iran

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I fear that poor Steyn will be dead soon. You guys should read him while you can.
 
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It would have cost the USAF around $50M to $100M to train the WSO colonel so far. The risk of political fall out, tar on the reputation of the offensive and subsequent leverage Iran would have holding him as POW meant he was a must recover target.
 
Regime change now.
Hasn't the US said multiple times that this is not a regime change war? I think anyone expecting that is not listening to what the American leadership is actually saying. At first it was to wipe out Iranian force projection. Now its to try and open up the Strait of Hormuz.
 
Can't believe the guy went on for days about how he doesn't care about the straight and that other countries should fix the problem they created and now he's talking like it's the most important thing.

The guy needs to go, completely incompetent.
 
I asked this a few days ago, and didn't get one quote or reply.

I would seriously like to know as well.

No joke, what is the goal for this war?
A better world for all of us.

Theres no world where the IRGC makes it better. Theres no cancer research breakthroughs or zero point energy discovery with an IRGC.

But a free Iran with democracy and less terrorism across the world could maybe lead to such discoveries and breakthroughs

Reminder that Iran backs terrorist organizations globally, its not just the US and UK. Most of North Africans are slaughtered daily by boko haram. Even Russia had Islamic attacks. My friend in Jhb was literally shot in an isis attack and thats fucking south africa, no one cares about us.

All of the above is funded and organized by the IRGC
 
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Most are just calling out how poorly executed this operation has been
And they either simply don't like Trump, or they don't really understand armed conflicts. Mistakes were clearly made, but name someone who has done better recently with so few losses. And by "done" I don't mean a youtube video.

+1000 men a day in losses? Yeah, they are getting slaughtered.
Ukraine probably has the best army in the world right now.
Their latest offensive was a disaster, so no, they aren't the best army in the world right now.

They do a lot of shit with the little means they have available.
Yes, but that won't lead to victory precisely because they can't afford to lose 1000+ men a day. And given the overwhelming dominance of drones and the lack of air superiority, no one has come up with any other options yet.
 
Anything other than regime change would be a failure. We and Isreal have already passed our Rubicon.
Completely agree. But for this to actually happen at this point, the US and Israel need to completely annihilate the Iranian government (all people in it refusing to free the country from the current regime no matter what is happening right now) as well as absolutely all military forces and those close to them unless they'll agree to help. And I don't think that only the US and Israel can make it happen without massive boots on the ground operation with the help from other NATO countries at least when it comes to air support, intelligence and satellite data, at least that.

These braindead and ancient motherfuckers won't go down so easily no matter how many ultimatums you give them - it is clear as day that they don't give a flying fuck about anything Trump saying, so there's no point in wasting breath and kick the air. This regime needs to be a thing of the past and erased from the face of the Earth once and for all. There won't be another chance to do this without nukes. 2026 must be the end of this regime and with the end of it, the Russian and Belarus regimes will be even weaker than they are now, China for that matter as well.

It's not just about Iran, it's about multiple terrorist and war criminal regimes and those who support them. It's a once in the lifetime opportunity to bring them down and the whole world will be better for it. EU and NATO must step in and if they want to do it the right way, then there must be resolution released with universal support, just like the one that was released during conflict in Yugoslavia in the early 1990s when NATO had to step in to end it.

The sooner NATO countries will understand what needs to be done and that it's for the greater good of the whole humanity and piece on the planet, the better. There's a price to pay, of course, easy it is not, but FFS it must be done this year. It's about time to show some balls and stop being afraid, cuz it'll have absolutely insane effect on regimes in Russian and Belarus, as well as show China - that's fuckin' it, don't you fuckin' dare to strike Taiwan!
 
Completely agree. But for this to actually happen at this point, the US and Israel need to completely annihilate the Iranian government (all people in it refusing to free the country from the current regime no matter what is happening right now) as well as absolutely all military forces and those close to them unless they'll agree to help. And I don't think that only the US and Israel can make it happen without massive boots on the ground operation with the help from other NATO countries at least when it comes to air support, intelligence and satellite data, at least that.

Agree

These braindead and ancient motherfuckers won't go down so easily no matter how many ultimatums you give them - it is clear as day that they don't give a flying fuck about anything Trump saying, so there's no point in wasting breath and kick the air. This regime needs to be a thing of the past and erased from the face of the Earth once and for all. There won't be another chance to do this without nukes. 2026 must be the end of this regime and with the end of it, the Russian and Belarus regimes will be even weaker than they are now, China for that matter as well.

Nobody gives a shit. At the moment its just everyone just playing along and seeing which way the shit flies the next day. How does higher oil prices weaken ruZZia? The regime does support them but its not like they are elemental to ruZZia. Although I agree all of them need to go by the way of dodo.

It's not just about Iran, it's about multiple terrorist and war criminal regimes and those who support them. It's a once in the lifetime opportunity to bring them down and the whole world will be better for it. EU and NATO must step in and if they want to do it the right way, then there must be resolution released with universal support, just like the one that was released during conflict in Yugoslavia in the early 1990s when NATO had to step in to end it.

There is no plan. There was no plan. First it was regime, then it was nukes, then it was oil, then it was Hormuz, then it was "We don't really need Hormuz", then it was Hormuz, ....

The sooner NATO countries will understand what needs to be done and that it's for the greater good of the whole humanity and piece on the planet, the better. There's a price to pay, of course, easy it is not, but FFS it must be done this year. It's about time to show some balls and stop being afraid, cuz it'll have absolutely insane effect on regimes in Russian and Belarus, as well as show China - that's fuckin' it, don't you fuckin' dare to strike Taiwan!
NATO countries wont be there. There is no trust on current US government to do so as US is using their influence to boost ruZZian allied countries in EU. The fractures created by Trump has already lowered the deterrence of China taking Taiwan. NATO countries tied into this shit would just embolden China.
 
But for this to actually happen at this point, the US and Israel need to completely annihilate the Iranian government
If the new government can't hold on to power, it doesn't mean much. Look at what happened in Afghanistan.

The sooner NATO countries will understand what needs to be done
They won't understand a thing, since they haven't understood a thing about Ukraine in the past five years.

cuz it'll have absolutely insane effect on regimes in Russian and Belarus, as well as show China - that's fuckin' it, don't you fuckin' dare to strike Taiwan!
It will have an effect, but not an insane one. And I think that if the Chinese really wanted to take Taiwan by force, the operation would have started by now, while the Americans are distracted by Iran.
 
And they either simply don't like Trump, or they don't really understand armed conflicts. Mistakes were clearly made, but name someone who has done better recently with so few losses. And by "done" I don't mean a youtube video.
if you have a choice attack and destroy economies or consider other options, adequate person will choose latter.
Their latest offensive was a disaster, so no, they aren't the best army in the world right now.
recently they took back 400² km and still going.
they're not best overall but they have best ground and drone army and it shows in trainings.
 
Nobody gives a shit. At the moment its just everyone just playing along and seeing which way the shit flies the next day. How does higher oil prices weaken ruZZia? The regime does support them but its not like they are elemental to ruZZia. Although I agree all of them need to go by the way of dodo.
Both Russia and Belarus regimes are only afraid of one thing - the show of force. There will be nobody else to help them and China as well. Don't look into higher oil prices, it won't help Putler's regime cuz the state of economy in the country is already beyond saving and a few more monts of higher prices won't change anything. I live in Russia and see what's going on with economy, it's in complete and utter shit right now and getting worse and worse each day - it'll take to long to list everything but believe me, it was never this bad since the 70s and 90s minus market economy which wasn't even a thing back then. Now is as good of a time as ever for NATO to show balls cuz Putler thinks that they can't do shit.

There is no plan. There was no plan. First it was regime, then it was nukes, then it was oil, then it was Hormuz, then it was "We don't really need Hormuz", then it was Hormuz, ....
Yeah, they clearly didn't have a solid plan and good intelligence before launching the whole thing. And you can clearly see it by what is happening now. Nobody even talked about the possibility that Iran will begin to launch rockets and drones to attack other countries in the region. This alone was a massive fuck up of both Istrael and US intelligence on par with attack on Israel during music fisteval. But uh, nothing they can do about it now other than to do what's right cuz there's literally no other way and if they'll just stop and go away, then they must be ready for 9.11 again if not something much worse.

NATO countries wont be there. There is no trust on current US government to do so as US is using their influence to boost ruZZian allied countries in EU. The fractures created by Trump has already lowered the deterrence of China taking Taiwan. NATO countries tied into this shit would just embolden China.
I can't believe that after everything this idiot did over the last 1,5 years alone since he was elected again, he's still a US president. Like, my god, he has to be the absolute worst US president of all time and for what he did just during these 1,5 years, he should be impeached like 150 times already along with everyone who support him incl vice president. It's unfuckin' believable that I'm seeing US like this and in the worst possible light in terms of its reputation. Trump and everyone close to him must pay for what they did with the image of the country. It'll take years if not decades to fix everything his done. But that's up to US people to make it happen and I hope they know what must be done.
 
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We're living in an absolutely insane timeline where heads of state and their counterparts are out-meme'ing each other.



Lmfaooooo. I can't.


I remember when people were called juvenile for using memes and stupid pictures instead of serious words.

10 years ago I wouldn't imagine something like this getting mainstream for serious world leaders, lol.
 
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If the new government can't hold on to power, it doesn't mean much. Look at what happened in Afghanistan.
There must be a military presence from other countries after the war is over to protect the temp government and help it do everything right - reforms etc. We in Russia missed this chance in 1917, there must be no such thing in Iran.

They won't understand a thing, since they haven't understood a thing about Ukraine in the past five years.
Well, they did, it's just that it took them far too long cuz of the way how EU works in terms of bureaucracy and the way decisions must be made. Today's EU is not the same as it was in 2022.

It will have an effect, but not an insane one. And I think that if the Chinese really wanted to take Taiwan by force, the operation would have started by now, while the Americans are distracted by Iran.
If only you knew the current situation in Russia. It'll make a lot of people in the government rethink what they're doing (anti-war people in Russia already know that a lot of people in the government don't like what Putler is doing at all, but they don't have balls to act now).

Moreover, idk what you all are getting in terms of news from Russia today, but I can tell you that propaganda people already started blaming Putler for all the shit the war did for our country and it's only the beginning. There must be a spark to ignite some people, to show them that if Iran can fall, then Putler's regime can fall too and maybe it's time to do something about it.

History repeats itself. The exact same thing happened when other countries started refusing USSR before it fell in the early 90s, lots of people gone to streets and Putler's regime afraid of this so much, that you wouldn't believe, but to understand why that is, you just need to know one thing - during one of the giant protests back when USSR was still a thing, one of the big KGB people saw with his own eyes what it is to deal with uncontrollable amount of people on the streets and the fact that they can't do shit about it. They're so afraid that other countries will show Russian people that they can do that again, that what the US can do if it'll decide to get rid of Putler somehow pales in comparison.

Just the fact that Iran will fall will be massive wake up call for them, believe me. But it won't end the war instantly, that's for sure.

Update:

I completely forgot to mention a few important things in regards to the current situation in Russia. Can you imagine that in the US 50% of all people in the Police and 50% of Correctional Officers in prisons could just resign? Well, here's news for you all - it happened in Russia last year. Why? Cuz people there see where all of this is going, don't want to act against regular people by force and they don't even care about their early pension! What does it tell you? Does it look like 50% of all police force and correctional officers (a lot of which helped political prisoners anonymously btw) support what is happening and will support Putler when and if people will go to streets? The answer is obvious, but again, the spark to make it happen is missing and there only needs to be one.
 
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A better world for all of us.

Theres no world where the IRGC makes it better. Theres no cancer research breakthroughs or zero point energy discovery with an IRGC.

But a free Iran with democracy and less terrorism across the world could maybe lead to such discoveries and breakthroughs

Reminder that Iran backs terrorist organizations globally, its not just the US and UK. Most of North Africans are slaughtered daily by boko haram. Even Russia had Islamic attacks. My friend in Jhb was literally shot in an isis attack and thats fucking south africa, no one cares about us.

All of the above is funded and organized by the IRGC

So, from what you are saying, it seems like the goal is a regime change, would you agree?

So, we can easily now identify if this war was a success if we get a regime change?
 
if you have a choice attack and destroy economies or consider other options, adequate person will choose latter.
The destruction of the country's economy will lead to a much lower standard of living for civilians than the current destruction of the military.

recently they took back 400² km and still going.
they're not best overall but they have best ground and drone army and it shows in trainings.
And they will lose several times more than those 400 during this year. They captured only those positions that were poorly fortified, just as in the Kursk operation.

You mean, NOTHING changed about EU militaries in the last five years according to you?
I haven't seen any news reports suggesting that military production has increased significantly, nor that Europeans have adopted a new training format that incorporates drones (offense and defense). As far as I know, the Ukrainians are beginning to abandon infantry training in Europe, considering it pointless.

it won't help Putler's regime cuz the state of economy in the country is already beyond saving and a few more monts of higher prices won't change anything.
That's wishful thinking. I've been hearing for five years now that everything is about to fall apart. He still has a few more years left during which he'll be taking money out of people's pockets.

There must be a military presence from other countries after the war is over to protect the temp government and help it do everything right - reforms etc. We in Russia missed this chance in 1917, there must be no such thing in Iran.
That won't happen.

If only you knew the current situation in Russia.
I know the whole situation from the inside. So I can say with certainty that everything you wrote after that is just wishful thinking again.
 
I haven't seen any news reports suggesting that military production has increased significantly, nor that Europeans have adopted a new training format that incorporates drones (offense and defense). As far as I know, the Ukrainians are beginning to abandon infantry training in Europe, considering it pointless.
You need better sources.

BAE Hägglunds

Swebal is building a new TNT factory, Europe currently only has 1 or 2 of these.

SAAB FPV training drone
6VO1Oou.png


Video shows two new systems, BAE Bofors Tridon Mk2 and SAAB Trackfire shooting down drones.
 
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And they will lose several times more than those 400 during this year. They captured only those positions that were poorly fortified, just as in the Kursk operation.
russians weren't able to occupy anything this month, in total since 2022 ukraine liberated more ground then russia occupied, i don't see major russian advancements since ukrainians drones decimating russians like never before.
That's wishful thinking. I've been hearing for five years now that everything is about to fall apart. He still has a few more years left during which he'll be taking money out of people's pockets.
so you're hearing that russia will collapse when full scale invasion began? that's some serious propaganda you're hearing imagine starting a war and immediately collapse.
I know the whole situation from the inside. So I can say with certainty that everything you wrote after that is just wishful thinking again.
by your post it's clear to me that you don't know shit.
 
That's wishful thinking. I've been hearing for five years now that everything is about to fall apart. He still has a few more years left during which he'll be taking money out of people's pockets.
He's already doing this - a new law was signed and for sure will go through in days which'll target regular people's money to check if they're working in the grey market without paying taxes. People already took out 3,5 billion rubles from their bank accounts countrywide knowing that they can just not let them take them out exactly like it happened during the fall of the USSR - a few people already could't pay for stuff using their cards cuz bank decided that they'll doing something fishy - imagine what'll happen if it'll be countrywide.

Iirc, there's like 30+ billion rubles on people's bank accounts and it'll be their absolute last option to fund the war and prolong it, which'll piss people off beyond what they could possibly imagine, cuz at that point they'll attack each and everyone in the country personally by taking away their money and they know that'll be the end of them so they're not doing it. They can't do shit, really, the end is close for all of them and all they can do now is to prevent it from happening for as long as they can, but stop it they cannot and it warms my heart and soul:messenger_beaming:

That won't happen.
It must, otherwise they might as well just stop what they're doing now and deal with 9.11s. There's no bright future and freedom for Iran and its people if other countries won't help create temp government and defend it for as long as it must be.

I know the whole situation from the inside. So I can say with certainty that everything you wrote after that is just wishful thinking again.
More like neverending hope and something that will inevitably happen. There's no other way for the regime to end and after it'll happen in Russia, Belarus will follow. It's just a matter of time.

You know, back in USSR days people knew nothing about what's happening in the country and its economy (they didn't even know about mass repressions until they were declassified), the only way people could tell is by having nothing to eat, but it's completely different now. No matter how Putler is trying to prevent it from happening, people who have (and will) access to information about economy and other things know that regime can end any day, week or month, cuz they have a lot of information about what's going on, they just don't know, when what or who will be responsible for it, just like they didn't know right before USSR fell.
 
I haven't seen any news reports suggesting that military production has increased significantly, nor that Europeans have adopted a new training format that incorporates drones (offense and defense). As far as I know, the Ukrainians are beginning to abandon infantry training in Europe, considering it pointless.

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Of course western and southern Europe don't give a fuck about this (as always).

And there are further growths with 2025 numbers:

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Europe right now:

Some Of You May Die Lord Farquaad GIF by slicedbread

I mean, it's fucked up what it happening to Iranian citizens but what rest of the world have to do with this? There are tons of countries right now that kill their own citizens like that. Do you suggest military action in all of them?

People of Iran put this regime in power in 1979, if they are not happy with it, in theory they can do counter revolution right now. Would USA help with it? We don't know...
 
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Of course western and southern Europe don't give a fuck about this (as always).

And there are further growths with 2025 numbers:

g7wkVAOPqcH7RrHX.jpg



I mean, it's fucked up what it happening to Iranian citizens but what rest of the world have to do with this? There are tons of countries right now that kill their own citizens like that. Do you suggest military action in all of them?

People of Iran put this regime in power in 1979, if they are not happy with it, in theory they can do counter revolution right now. Would USA help with it? We don't know...

I'll bet aswell that he voted for Trump on the basis that "No more forigen wars!" - a real staple of the MAGA movement and a huge reason Trump was president twice.

And now look....
 
Israel killed Major General Seyed Majid Khademi, the head of intelligence for the IRGC. Great timing if this is going to escalate further as Trump has promised.

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I dunno who talks more and does nothing, Trump or the UAE. How many times have they almost joined this war already?

The same UAE that's taking a ton of damage from Iranian missiles? That gets their energy infrastructure hit in reprisal for Israeli attacks on Iranian energy?

It's about time to show some balls and stop being afraid, cuz it'll have absolutely insane effect on regimes in Russian and Belarus, as well as show China - that's fuckin' it, don't you fuckin' dare to strike Taiwan!

Actually, a war would bog down American forces and expend critical resources that may have gone to Ukraine. At the same time it would provide an excuse to Trump to full ease off sanctions against Russia, giving them time and resources to continue their war.

At the same time, this war further emboldens China, opens up more markets for their weapons systems and shows them the U.S. navy's unwillingness to put capital ship anywhere near mined waters within missile range.


It will have an effect, but not an insane one. And I think that if the Chinese really wanted to take Taiwan by force, the operation would have started by now, while the Americans are distracted by Iran.

The Chinese don't need to hurry it along. A Taiwan campaign they're unprepared for would lead to lots of casualties.
They can play it cool, continue to build up their forces and only strike when they're ready.

Certainly nobody is taking up odds that the U.S. would actually fight them for Taiwan.
 

This is exactly how we wind up in another pointless and endless war: We can't let our pride and ego take a hit, so we just keep escalating and throwing more people and expensive equipment at it when we lose people. The people we're fighting against know it, so they keep hitting us just hard enough to continually justify a response. They aren't trying to win, they're trying to bait us into exhausting ourselves. It's the "rope a dope" strategy from boxing. Anyone who raises a hand and points out we're burning through American lives and expensive equipment is called a pussy and bullied into silence.

Vietnam
Afghanistan
Iraq

I sure hope Iran doesn't get added to that list. I sure hope the leaders who are supposed to be in charge can find a way to wind this thing down before we spend hundreds of billions of dollars and lose more good Americans in a conflict people seem to be struggling to justify...
 
You need better sources.

BAE Hägglunds

Swebal is building a new TNT factory, Europe currently only has 1 or 2 of these.

SAAB FPV training drone
6VO1Oou.png


Video shows two new systems, BAE Bofors Tridon Mk2 and SAAB Trackfire shooting down drones.


Ukrainians are literally training British troops in drone tactics now. These people don't know what they're talking about yet speak with such confidence.

They've become arguably our second most important military partners after the US and France.
 
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You need better sources.
You need to understand what "significant" means. It's clear that you don't grasp the scale of the situation.

russians weren't able to occupy anything this month, in total since 2022 ukraine liberated more ground then russia occupied, i don't see major russian advancements since ukrainians drones decimating russians like never before.
"According to Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessments, Russian forces seized approximately 500–600 sq km in 2023, 3,604 sq km in 2024, and 4,831 sq km in 2025, with accelerated gains in 2025 driven by new operational tactics.".
I see you've decided to extrapolate the current situation to the rest of the war — good luck with that.

by your post it's clear to me that you don't know shit.
🤦‍♂️

Iirc, there's like 30+ billion rubles on people's bank accounts and it'll be their absolute last option to fund the war and prolong it, which'll piss people off beyond what they could possibly imagine,
You're mistaken, there are 67 trillion rubles in the accounts, which is about 700+ billion dollars. Putin has killed the entire opposition in Russia and judging by your avatar you seem to be well aware of this, so this discontent won't amount to anything. Russians have not yet had enough freedom in their history to truly appreciate its value and uphold it as an ideal. And we shouldn't forget or pretend that putin doesn't have significant support within the country - I think it's at least 30%.
In short, as much as I'd like to, I don't see any bright future for Russians in the coming years. And unless putin kicks the bucket, he'll just keep sitting on the throne.

It must, otherwise they might
They should have punished putin for Crimea, and now they're dealing with the consequences in the form of Ukraine. I have no doubt whatsoever that the same thing will happen with Iran.

There's no other way for the regime to end and after it'll happen in Russia, Belarus will follow. It's just a matter of time.
Putin is too cunning to let things get to that point. I can't imagine what will happen after he dies, though.

Of course western and southern Europe don't give a fuck about this (as always).
Yes, instead of ramping up production on the scale of memory manufacturers are doing now, they're hoping that the Ukrainians will manage on their own with their drones. Overall, Poland is really the only country that's not just talking the talk but also buying a ton of weapons.

I mean, it's fucked up what it happening to Iranian citizens but what rest of the world have to do with this? There are tons of countries right now that kill their own citizens like that. Do you suggest military action in all of them?
That would be wonderful if it were possible. But Iran hasn't just been killing its own citizens, it has also been destabilizing the region as a whole by funding and supplying terrorist organizations.
In my view, Europeans should be helping the Ukrainians right now and not getting in the way of the Americans in Iran.

People of Iran put this regime in power in 1979, if they are not happy with it, in theory they can do counter revolution right now. Would USA help with it? We don't know...
Yes, I agree that the Iranians themselves must do the bulk of the work on the ground, otherwise, they won't be able to maintain power against the former regime. I think it would be wise to reach an agreement with the former regime regarding secularization at this time.
 
Vietnam
Afghanistan
Iraq

I sure hope Iran doesn't get added to that list.

This is so far nothing remotely close to being like Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. this was a very worrisome weekend with the search for the pilot, however this war has had only 13 servicemen killed in over a month, a shame though at an entirely different scale to those wars. Having Iran's infrastructure destroyed from a distance doesn't seem like a smart rope a dope by Iran to me. When thousands of troops are deployed to hold territory then that's a serious escalation I'd take note of with more concern.
 
You're mistaken, there are 67 trillion rubles in the accounts, which is about 700+ billion dollars. Putin has killed the entire opposition in Russia and judging by your avatar you seem to be well aware of this, so this discontent won't amount to anything. Russians have not yet had enough freedom in their history to truly appreciate its value and uphold it as an ideal. And we shouldn't forget or pretend that putin doesn't have significant support within the country - I think it's at least 30%.
In short, as much as I'd like to, I don't see any bright future for Russians in the coming years. And unless putin kicks the bucket, he'll just keep sitting on the throne.
Yeah, my bad, it's 2+ times more, which even if they take all this money, it'll only be enough for like 4+ years and I don't think Putler has that much time left.

They should have punished putin for Crimea, and now they're dealing with the consequences in the form of Ukraine. I have no doubt whatsoever that the same thing will happen with Iran.
Well of course, it's EU and US fault cuz they didn't act the way they should've 12 years ago, but if I'm beingh honest, they should've did something 6 years before that in 2008.

Putin is too cunning to let things get to that point. I can't imagine what will happen after he dies, though.
He sure af learned from the past, but he and every ancient dino around him can't stop making the same mistakes as USSR before. I'm pretty sure that if he'll take all these 67 billion from people's bank accounts, that'll be the end of it and those white internet lists will burty the whole economy as well - modern economy simply can't work without properly working internet - they're diggin' their own grave here.
 
Did you see Iran threatening our AI data center. Nooooo!!!!
I really hope they do not mess with our shit. Damn this war, lol. Let it end. I also hope we do not have to take out any power stations. Life without power can really suck and I don't wish it on anyone.
 
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