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Monitoring the situation in Iran

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How do you square that with your claim that the attacks preceded the war but dumb luck prevented insurers from charging higher premiums?

'dumb luck' are your words.

When I was talking about luck, it was in regards to the shipping companies being lucky that they weren't charged much more. The insurers could have really hiked up their prices if they'd wanted to as the risk was there.
 
I didn't bring up the Bosporus precedent, you did...
You brought up a superficial point about the fee being split to call out idiocy without really considering the point you were making. Your take on the situation seems just as basic as others you deride. I'll leave you to have the last word since you're not reading what I write anyways.
 
This is a failure on so many levels. No help to Iranian people, no nuclear disarmament, no change to their proxies, nothing.

Except that Iran armed forces was degraded to a level that if it's necessary to go there again. It will be a walk in the park.

Plus it's a 2 side deal. Not a single line on Israel I think.

Edit. "Israel has agreed to the ceasefire as well, a White House official tells The War Zone. That confirms an earlier report by Reuters"

IMHO this thing will not hold and now is the exact time for every Arab gulf state to do one of those joint freedom of navigation act across the strait... As a show of force
 
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I can't find anything issued from the associated press re: Iran continuing to charge tolls during this ceasefire. Do you have a direct source. This crash report doesn't seem the most reputable.



Iran, Oman to charge for Strait of Hormuz passage


By SAMY MAGDY



The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, a regional official said Wednesday.

The official said Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction. It wasn't immediately clear what Oman would use its money for.

The strait is in the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran. The world had considered the passage an international waterway and never paid tolls before.

The official, who had been directly involved in the negotiations, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
 
Except that Iran armed forces was degraded to a level that if it's necessary to go there again. It will be a walk in the park.

Plus it's a 2 side deal. Not a single line on Israel I think.

Edit. "Israel has agreed to the ceasefire as well, a White House official tells The War Zone. That confirms an earlier report by Reuters"

IMHO this thing will not hold and now is the exact time for every Arab gulf state to do one of those joint freedom of navigation act across the strait... As a show of force
Israel has capitulated again to the US, and will also halt the need to eliminate hezbollah in the North. We have weak leaders.

The Arab gulf states have cowered as well.

I can't see this as anything but an Iran victory.

I'd also add that the people who were against the regime in Iran will now basically do nothing and will submit.
 
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Iran, Oman to charge for Strait of Hormuz passage


By SAMY MAGDY



The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, a regional official said Wednesday.

The official said Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction. It wasn't immediately clear what Oman would use its money for.

The strait is in the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran. The world had considered the passage an international waterway and never paid tolls before.

The official, who had been directly involved in the negotiations, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Thanks. If that arrangement holds, then it's very embarrassing to Trump
 
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Israel has capitulated again to the US, and will also halt the need to eliminate hezbollah in the North. We have weak leaders.

The Arab gulf states have cowered as well.

I can't see this as anything but an Iran victory.

I'd also add that the people who were against the regime in Iran will now basically do nothing and will submit.

Hopefully Israel keeps hammering Hezbollah
 
I would have liked to see Kharg totally destroyed prior to the ceasefire, but I guess the goal is to keep that card in hand. There are outcomes far worse than this, so not bad. Iran's military is largely destroyed, all they have left are drones and their hidden missile cache. Mossad can work on finding those missile locations while we rush proper anti-drone tech and work on mass production of missile interceptors.
 
yeah, also Lebanon totes disarmed Hezbollah during that ceaasfire.

We are being played or they are being played. Weak leaders. Islam will take over in my lifetime.
Yeah, the Middle East is not the west - people there don't have dignity but only the honor. But lying to the westerns they gain the honor without losing dignity. And it is just like with 12 day way, USA again did not allow Israel to finish the job if USA themselves did not want to. And over what? Pakistan?

So uh, can we focus on making America great again now?

Pretty please... ?
For that you need to vote in local elections. USA president does not have that much power in the USA itself. He has much more freedom in the outside world.
 
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You brought up a superficial point about the fee being split to call out idiocy without really considering the point you were making. Your take on the situation seems just as basic as others you deride. I'll leave you to have the last word since you're not reading what I write anyways.

Comprehension is not your strong suit either.

The point of the argument was that the statement was about splitting the 'toll', not as a number of people were stating that it was all for Iran.

The only value judgement I made of it was that the current shipping route doesn't go through Iranian territory anyway.

Nothing I have stated has been wrong. Get off your high horse.
 
People in here are like I hope this doesn't happen trump is so terrible for doing this. Doesn't do it and then it is, what a coward not bombing every bridge and power plant.

Can't win with peace or war.

Im very glad Trump didn't commit a massive war crime that would stain our countrys name for generations actually.

What I'm upset about is that hes still in a position to make that happen and articles of impeachment aren't being written as we speak.

Hes lost his mind. And his word is not the one on which millions of lives should balance. Hes beyond rationality and tweets and speaks like a lunatic.

Get this guy out of here. This operation is a failure. Its not going to turn into a success. Head back to the drawing, get someone new running things and we can move forward with next steps.
 


In any case it gives Iran time to regroup and rebuild. Should have finished Iran off.


Regroup maybe, but rebuild? edit: and Iran was already operating under a decentralized structure since last year's attack

You can't rebuild a surface naval fleet and an air force out of thin air. Even Russia has its fair share of problems to build and deploy its own air defenses
If it was that easy Iran wouldn't be operating F-14A and F-5 until 3 months ago.

Israel has capitulated again to the US, and will also halt the need to eliminate hezbollah in the North. We have weak leaders.
The Arab gulf states have cowered as well.
I can't see this as anything but an Iran victory.
I'd also add that the people who were against the regime in Iran will now basically do nothing and will submit.

No it won't, you know that Israel will continue hunt these fuckers. What i see is both US and Israel in a much better position to demand something of Iran, specially because the strait will not be as congested as it is today.
But the final agreement would require the inclusion of a solution to the missiles and nuclear material.

Anyway, i still think that this isn't the end of this war and hostilities will eventually begin again. In two weeks we'll know.
 
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You can't rebuild a surface naval fleet and an air force out of thin air. Even Russia has its fair share of problems to build and deploy its own air defenses
If it was that easy Iran wouldn't be operating F-14A and F-5 until 3 months ago.
Iranian doctrine has always been about proxies and missiles. Now Iran has time to dig them out. Plus they can purchase some anti-air stuff from China or at least be better prepared after experiencing the bombings from USA. Iran wins from the delay.
 
Iranian doctrine has always been about proxies and missiles. Now Iran has time to dig them out. Plus they can purchase some anti-air stuff from China or at least be better prepared after experiencing the bombings from USA. Iran wins from the delay.

AD isn't something that you buy off shelf in two weeks. Nor It's easy to manufacture missiles after your factories have been bombed for 40 days straight.

Anyway i don't think this will hold.
 
Agreeing to a ceasefire is stupid. Buying time for IRGC and its allies to regroup and think clearly. Finish it, or you shouldn't have even fucking started without a solid foundational plan.
 
I wonder if it cooks Bibi's career as he has nothing to show after this war. Granted he might try finish off Hezbollah at least.

Also if it is true that JD pushed for a ceasefire, he might be growing into another Jimmy Carter. That one was also a nice talker.
 
'dumb luck' are your words.

When I was talking about luck, it was in regards to the shipping companies being lucky that they weren't charged much more. The insurers could have really hiked up their prices if they'd wanted to as the risk was there.
So you're saying maritime insurers were just eating the risk and effectively running a charity for shipping companies?
 
Being the next Jimmy Carter is not a fucking compliment.

Who knew Hegseth would be the smarter of the two on this.
I did not say it was a compliment. Carter was charismatic but weak and pathetic who gave leverage to foreign adversaries.

Personally I am curious about the polls in a week.

P.s. a lot of iranians are probably crestfallen too knowing that regime stays
 
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So you're saying maritime insurers were just eating the risk and effectively running a charity for shipping companies?

They were eating some of it, yes, in order to have customers. That's how insurance works. That's how any business works.

Now the risk is much higher they've priced pretty much everyone out.
 
I hate when people use Tacos to describe Trump.. I can't even fucking eat in peace without being burdened with that shit, lol... Why did that even occur? Because he's orange man? What kind of tacos do MFers in the West eat? None of my tacos, minus Chipotle + Ancho Chilli based tacos died the fat and meat a deep orange... Fucking A, I can't even eat Cheetos, because they pushed that unto him as well. TBH, tho.. fuck cheetos and most processed foods. :messenger_winking:
 
I hate when people use Tacos to describe Trump.. I can't even fucking eat in peace without being burdened with that shit, lol... Why did that even occur? Because he's orange man? What kind of tacos do MFers in the West eat? None of my tacos, minus Chipotle + Ancho Chilli based tacos died the fat and meat a deep orange... Fucking A, I can't even eat Cheetos, because they pushed that unto him as well. TBH, tho.. fuck cheetos and most processed foods. :messenger_winking:
Trump
Always
Chickens
Out
 
They were eating some of it, yes, in order to have customers. That's how insurance works. That's how any business works.

Now the risk is much higher they've priced pretty much everyone out.
Yes, the rates were set by level of risk and not luck. Thanks for coming around. No need to continue this tangent.
 
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f Trump backs off, he'll expose himself as a pufferfish to the whole world, and no country takes his threats serious again.
Lmao, you guys and other countries have no memory at all. He threatened to wipe North Korea off the face of the Earth, and then posed for a friendly photo with Kim.

IRGC literally won the time for regroup, buildup and dig up the missile stockpiles.
What? I thought they weren't so dumb. Time is on the side of the US-Israel, who have more time now for surveillance and planning future operations. The IRGC gains nothing - everything they dig will be noted and targeted once the ceasefire ends.

as there is now a two week window for China and Russia to provide more drone supplies.
Russia doesn't have any spare drones.
 
No it won't, you know that Israel will continue hunt these fuckers. What i see is both US and Israel in a much better position to demand something of Iran, specially because the strait will not be as congested as it is today.
But the final agreement would require the inclusion of a solution to the missiles and nuclear material.

Anyway, i still think that this isn't the end of this war and hostilities will eventually begin again. In two weeks we'll know.
You're naive. Hezbollah and Iran sees this as a victory, as they should. They both will rebuild, get stronger, and eventually what Hamas did on Oct 7 will happen from our North side with a much more emboldened Hezbollah.


I wonder if it cooks Bibi's career as he has nothing to show after this war. Granted he might try finish off Hezbollah at least.
It won't. and he won't.
 
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