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Monitoring the situation in Iran

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Meicyn said:
Yeah, this is true. Violence was foundational to the establishment of the United States of America. The British Empire wasn't going to read the Declaration of Independence and go "yeah, no problem our territory is yours now" without a fight.

Don't tread on me.
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More to the point: Throughout history, revolutions and violent uprisings have been led by the wealthy and well-educated, not by the poor and uneducated as most people might imagine. The most notorious example of this is the French Revolution

George Orwell knew this 80 years ago. Just read 1984 and you'll realize how deeply Orwell understood where revolutions come from
 
Unknown Soldier said:
More to the point: Throughout history, revolutions and violent uprisings have been led by the wealthy and well-educated, not by the poor and uneducated as most people might imagine. The most notorious example of this is the French Revolution

George Orwell knew this 80 years ago. Just read 1984 and you'll realize how deeply Orwell understood where revolutions come from
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Biggest element about revolutions is that you need well-educated and informed individuals to lead such an effort, and money to pay for stuff. One lone gunman with delusions of grandeur amounts to little more than a one-off moment where they generally make the whole situation worse, even if they succeed at their goal. If the deranged lunatic successfully killed the POTUS, Vance would step up and would likely alter very little in overall trajectory. He likely wouldn't have gone into Iran in the first place, but we are already there now so it'd be his problem to deal with, stuck with the same dilemma of an IRGC that won't negotiate.

I don't like Trump in the slightest, but there are already processes in place for his removal in a non-violent way. He's not a King, he can be removed or blunted.
 
Ass of Can Whooping said:
In what way? Slugfest on their mainlands? No

Keeping them off the falklands? Lol easily.
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Fella, we'll meteor missile strike their 40 year old f16 airframes from beyond visual range, and then frog swim a Royal Marine Jihad into Patagonia and make it Welsh again.

Buenos Aires is getting nuked after the victory parade just for the fun of recreating Starship Troopers.

Anglo 'Piratas' will become a genetic memory even greater than it already is for them.
 
P:axMagellanic said:
Fella, we'll meteor missile strike their 40 year old f16 airframes from beyond visual range, and then frog swim a Royal Marine Jihad into Patagonia and make it Welsh again.

Buenos Aires is getting nuked after the victory parade just for the fun of recreating Starship Troopers.

Anglo 'Piratas' will become a genetic memory even greater than it already is for them.
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Yeah, keep dreaming 🤣
 
P:axMagellanic said:
Fella, we'll meteor missile strike their 40 year old f16 airframes from beyond visual range, and then frog swim a Royal Marine Jihad into Patagonia and make it Welsh again.

Buenos Aires is getting nuked after the victory parade just for the fun of recreating Starship Troopers.

Anglo 'Piratas' will become a genetic memory even greater than it already is for them.
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I kind of want to see this as a cool action flick, now.
 
Unknown Soldier said:
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"Education" not IQ, also the causation could be misattributed. Could be that It's not that they're more educated that they support violence, it's because they're more likely left leaning (liberal arts majors lean left) that they support violence.

makes sense though people on the left have not experienced any kind of consequences from advocating or committing violence so why would they stop.
 
apnews.com

Iran's top diplomat briefly returns to Pakistan but Trump says the sides can talk by phone

Iran's foreign minister has briefly visited Islamabad again as Pakistan's leaders work to restart ceasefire talks between Tehran and Washington.
apnews.com apnews.com

SLAMABAD (AP) — Iran 's foreign minister briefly visited Islamabad again on Sunday as Pakistan's political and military leadership scrambled to reignite ceasefire negotiations between Tehran and Washington, but U.S. President Donald Trump said they could talk by phone instead.

Abbas Araghchi had left Pakistan's capital late the previous day, creating confusion around an expected second round of talks there, but he returned before continuing on to Moscow on Sunday, Iranian state media said. He had been in Oman, which previously mediated talks and is on the other side of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The White House last week said it would dispatch envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad to follow up on historic face-to-face talks earlier this month. But shortly after Araghchi's departure Saturday, Trump said he had called off the mission because of a lack of progress with Iran.
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High IQ and education are two separate things. While he wouldn't have a low IQ to get that far, you don't really need anything over 110 to remember information. People with a really high IQ normally can't cope in formal educational settings. Somebody who was very well educated in North Korea would still believe their leader was a living God because that's what they are told, they would just believe it more fervently. The danger of spending so long in education is that you have less doubt in what you believe. Surely not every tutor and colleague can be wrong. Your average person will doubt themselves more and be surrounded by different views.
 
Don't confuse someone overcoming drastically lowered barriers with being intelligent. He was a total failure once he encountered real life with those advantages no longer in play (which was likely why he did this) and his 200IQ plan was literally the Leeroy Jenkins meme. A total loser and a total failure. They're not sending their best.
 
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Vestal said:
Some would consider this a reset to pre war conditions. I don't see how the US can take it without looking very weak both domestically and on the world stage.

apnews.com

Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US lifts its blockade and the war ends, officials say

Iran has offered to end its control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its blockade and ends the war. That's according to regional officials.
apnews.com apnews.com
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The U.S. was able to use a bunch of weapons before expiration. Inspired a bunch of patriots. That's a win!
 
Vestal said:
Some would consider this a reset to pre war conditions. I don't see how the US can take it without looking very weak both domestically and on the world stage.

apnews.com

Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US lifts its blockade and the war ends, officials say

Iran has offered to end its control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its blockade and ends the war. That's according to regional officials.
apnews.com apnews.com
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At the very least, Iran has to give up it's enriched Uranium and stop trying to make nuclear weapons.
 
Vestal said:
Some would consider this a reset to pre war conditions.
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Does the proposed deal include resurrecting most of Iran's leadership class and un-obliterating all of their stuff?

Iran seems increasingly desperate to end the economic chokehold President Trump has on them. This deal was available to President Trump before and he decided it wasn't good enough, so I doubt it will be now either.

With oil prices still half of what the experts predicted, idk why he wouldn't just leave the blockade in place until the pips squeak. With China apparently uninterested in going to bat for Iran, Iran is down to hoping its allies of convenience in the US can pull it out of the fire by stopping President Trump or tying his hands.
 
calico said:
Does the proposed deal include resurrecting most of Iran's leadership class and un-obliterating all of their stuff?

Iran seems increasingly desperate to end the economic chokehold President Trump has on them. This deal was available to President Trump before and he decided it wasn't good enough, so I doubt it will be now either.

With oil prices still half of what the experts predicted, idk why he wouldn't just leave the blockade in place until the pips squeak. With China apparently uninterested in going to bat for Iran, Iran is down to hoping its allies of convenience in the US can pull it out of the fire by stopping President Trump or tying his hands.
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Iran still thinking they can delay nuclear negotiations is hilarious

They are out of time. Within days they will need to start shutting down oil wells. The US can just wait them out. Once they get to shutting down oil wells, that's when they start permanently destroying their oil extraction infrastructure

President Trump is in no hurry. He knows this just as well as whoever is nominally in control of Iran right now
 
calico said:
Don't confuse someone overcoming drastically lowered barriers with being intelligent. He was a total failure once he encountered real life with those advantages no longer in play (which was likely why he did this) and his 200IQ plan was literally the Leeroy Jenkins meme. A total loser and a total failure. They're not sending their best.
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Their best get rich off radicalising them and pretending they are on the Frontlines with the idiots.

Just look at how all blm, antifa, no kings etc leaders just make bank then fuck off and live in luxury while the fools try fight police officers in the street
 
blockade² froze the war. It's up to the terrorists to decide how much they want to destroy their own country., the real collateral damage right now is asian economies (which the USA will help selling them expensive oil lol)
 
Smiggs said:
This could have very big implications on a few fronts. Wow... Anything that puts a hurting on OPEC is a plus in my book.
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I am more surprised that Venezuela is still in OPEC. Together with USA becoming the biggest oil supplier and potential currency swaps...Dollar is here to stay :messenger_tears_of_joy:

Jaybe said:
Yeah, should help keep oil prices from escalating much further with this move (vs them staying in OPEC)
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I doubt OPEC was in position to do anything - too much turmoil in its biggest members.
 
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As far as OPEC is concerned:
Fire Destroy GIF
 
delirium trigger said:
UAE leaving OPEC is actually pretty wild. Could the whole cartel collapse?
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I would say even right now it is essentially dead already. Like if we look at the list of members - Algeria, Congo, Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela - we can see that the group is basically cooked. Who are the biggest oil producers there now and who are even able to produce anything? Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela - are crippled or just nominal members right now at best. Without them you have a set of irrelevant producers. Outside of OPEC you had Russia whose western production is decimated by Ukraine. The members are there but they are nowhere near as powerful as they used to be. If not of tons of green policies of Biden administration (and restrictions of oil production), USA would be even in much stronger position than now too. It is basically the only country that can serve oil through Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
 
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ChuckeRearmed said:
I would say even right now it is essentially dead already. Like if we look at the list of members - Algeria, Congo, Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela - we can see that the group is basically cooked. Who are the biggest oil producers there now and who are even able to produce anything? Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela - are crippled or just nominal members right now at best. Without them you have a set of irrelevant producers. Outside of OPEC you had Russia whose western production is decimated by Ukraine. The members are there but they are nowhere near as powerful as they used to be. If not of tons of green policies of Biden administration (and restrictions of oil production), USA would be even in much stronger position than now too. It is basically the only country that can serve oil through Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
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Saudi is the world no 3 oil producer with Iraq at no 5. The UAE is as crippled as both right now, if not moreso than Saudi (due to their pipeline).
 
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UAE leaving OPEC really does not matter, it's all about Saudi Arabia in that cartel that keeps the rest of ME zone in line. The top 3 oil producers in the world are U.S., S.A., Russia by far.

I'm interested to see how this develops. OPEC and the U.S. have been aligned since the gulf war, OPEC reinforces the petrodollar. This is not positive news for U.S. interests imo
 
FullMetalx117 said:
UAE leaving OPEC really does not matter, it's all about Saudi Arabia in that cartel that keeps the rest of ME zone in line. The top 3 oil producers in the world are U.S., S.A., Russia by far.

I'm interested to see how this develops. OPEC and the U.S. have been aligned since the gulf war, OPEC reinforces the petrodollar. This is not positive news for U.S. interests imo
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Yep, trust in the US dollar as the world's reserve currency has been eroding for quite some time, and it's pretty unlikely this trend will reverse. Trump certainly didn't cause it (thanks Obama!), but he's definitely not helping either.
 
Meicyn said:
Yep, trust in the US dollar as the world's reserve currency has been eroding for quite some time, and it's pretty unlikely this trend will reverse. Trump certainly didn't cause it (thanks Obama!), but he's definitely not helping either.
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Trump is actively doing it so he could make domestic manufacturers attractable again. The plan is to make the country not be so reliant on China, at least on strategic manufacture.

It's macroeconomics 101
 
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YCoCg said:
Good news in the UK at least:

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My son was poached from Coke by a major oil company in the US and he negotiates contracts with other companies from all over the world buying their refined oil and he said the same thing just this evening how much money their company is making from this.

Mainly from people buying massive amounts more of their product to lock in the latest pricing so not only are they charging more but selling more as well
 


According to the Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, U.S. President Donald J. Trump has told his aids to prepare for an extended U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Per the report, President Trump sees pulling out of the conflict or resuming combat operations against Iran as far more risky than continuing to blockade vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports. This news follows reporting that the intelligence community was given direction to assess the risk of declaring a unilateral victory and pulling back from the conflict.
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Gas is 4.19 right now in Central FL.. We are going to break 5 dollars if this true. This can't be the status quo for too much longer.
 
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aMZ3JynT1pqUAqkG.png




April 28 - U.S. intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if President Donald Trump were to declare a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war that has killed thousands and become a political liability for the White House, two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the matter said.

The intelligence community is analyzing ‌the question along with others at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that some officials and advisers worry could contribute to deep Republican losses at the midterm elections later this year, according to the sources.
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