PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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RustyNails said:
Eric Holder is one of my least favorite Obama appointees, after Larry Summers and that Jeff Immelt. Holder especially sucks because he's in a public office.
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I dislike Holder as much as the next guy, but I don't think this is a decision he made on his own.
This is on Obama, and yeah, his administration's record is extremely disappointing on that front.

CharlieDigital said:
I honestly cannot understand the outrage over this program not to mention its predecessor was implemented under the Bush administration.
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Personally, I'm pissed that Obama invoked executive privilege over that.
It's a bullshit move that should not be justified.
That is not to say that you should vote for Romney because of that, but you shouldn't let it slide either.
 
DeathbyVolcano said:
edit: Also despite Florida being lean Obama at the moment I'm not entirely convinced Obama will snag it. I have to little faith in that state, and panhandle Florida is pretty shitty.
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I think if they keep at it with the "vouchercare" line they can pick up Florida. It'll be close either way though.
 
MMT education is necessary for any economics discussion, the gun shit is fuckin boring, make a new thread.


Also EVs not even here!
 
from the PPP poll
One thing that's definitely not helping Romney in Michigan is the position he took on the auto bailout. 53% of voters think Obama has been better for the automotive industry in
the state compared to only 31% for Romney. And this is something voters care about-
80% of voters say the candidates' record on the automotive industry is important to them.
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Romney is not winning this state
 
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
Except the NRA has never commented about wanting to remove laws relating to straw purchases. They have often said that the existing laws should be enforced and not make new ones. They supported the Don't Lie for The Other Guy Campaign
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Oh, you mean they were against the Tiahrt Amendment? They're for closing the "Gun Show Loophole"? They're for closing any number of other loopholes that allow transfer of firearms that could easily lead to individuals procuring weapons without licensing or background checks?

NRA sounds more and more liberal by the day!
 
I think the only state that will be a legitimate toss-up is going to be Florida at this point. I don't see Obama losing NH, CO, IA, OH, WI, or VA. I think North Carolina is a lost cause and Obama likely won't get the split Nebraska vote. Either way, things will continue to solidify over the next few weeks and I think a 300+ EV victory for Obama is likely.
 
CharlieDigital said:
Oh, you mean they were against the Tiahrt Amendment? They're for closing the "Gun Show Loophole"? They're for closing any number of other loopholes that allow transfer of firearms that could easily lead to individuals procuring weapons without licensing or background checks?

NRA sounds more and more liberal by the day!
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There is no gun show loophole. Its a fake term made up by "gun control" advocates. The Tiahart amendment is supported by the FOP as it allows them greater access to the ATFs database. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Tiahrt#Tiahrt_Amendment I don't think hobbling police investigations is a laudable goal.
 
Kosmo said:
*cool history bro*
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Wow, so Democrats used to be the party of Southern conservatism / white supremacy? What a shameful legacy.

Thanks for the history lesson, conservatives. How could black people not vote Republican now?
 
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
The Tiahart amendment is supported by the FOP as it allows them greater access to the ATFs database. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Tiahrt#Tiahrt_Amendment I don't think hobbling police investigations is a laudable goal.
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You can make the database available to law enforcement while still making it available to the public and admissible as evidence in civil court cases. There is no reason for the Tiahart amendment to exist.

Face if: if you're going to be outraged over F&F, then you should be really outraged by the NRA and the lobbyists who have paid out millions of dollars to the coffers of Republicans (and I'm sure some Democrats as well) that contribute to our lax laws on the sale, ownership, and transfer of firearms.

When you start shouting down the NRA and cursing their compliance in the trade of firearms to drug cartels in Mexico, I'll take your critique of Holder and F&F seriously.
 
I will laugh so hard if Obama evens it up in NC after the convention, I realize it's unlikely based on new polls, but it's still more likely to happen than say Indiana.
 
HylianTom said:
So Michigan looks solid, PA is solid, Virginia is looking good.. I'm looking at the map, scratching my head on how Romney makes the math work.
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Playing around with the electoral map, I gave Romney FL, NH, IA, WI and CO, and he still loses 274 to 264. Yeah, Romney is in pretty dire straits electorally.
 
codhand said:
I will laugh so hard if Obama evens it up in NC after the convention, I realize it's unlikely based on new polls, but it's still more likely to happen than say Indiana.
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Obama only won NC by .3% last time. I don't see it being in play this time around. I'd love to see it happen, but it isn't likely.
 
Didn't Bush declare a "mandate to lead" after this relatively narrow win in 2004? I wonder what Obama will say after he wins (again) with >300 EVs.
 
CharlieDigital said:
You can make the database available to law enforcement while still making it available to the public and admissible as evidence in civil court cases. There is no reason for the Tiahart amendment to exist.

Face if: if you're going to be outraged over F&F, then you should be really outraged by the NRA and the lobbyists who have paid out millions of dollars to the coffers of Republicans (and I'm sure some Democrats as well) that contribute to our lax laws on the sale, ownership, and transfer of firearms.

When you start shouting down the NRA and cursing their compliance in the trade of firearms to drug cartels in Mexico, I'll take your critique of Holder and F&F seriously.
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Yup. Ultimately the NRA, through intense lobbying and 100s of millions of dollars has put exponentially more guns in the hands of Mexican cartels than F&F ever could. And F&F was a disastrous accident, not a deliberate well-funded and unapologetic campaign.
 
Stinkles said:
Yup. Ultimately the NRA, through intense lobbying and 100s of millions of dollars has put exponentially more guns in the hands of Mexican cartels than F&F ever could. And F&F was a disastrous accident, not a deliberate well-funded and unapologetic campaign.
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That's absurd, but considering the free pass Obama gets on the issue , I'm not surprised. Blaming the NRA is an easy out.
 
Stinkles said:
Yup. Ultimately the NRA, through intense lobbying and 100s of millions of dollars has put exponentially more guns in the hands of Mexican cartels than F&F ever could. And F&F was a disastrous accident, not a deliberate well-funded and unapologetic campaign.
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Let me be clear: in no way, shape or form do I find F&F and its predecessor under Bush to be "disastrous".

I come from a background in science so I understand the desire to map, chart, and delve into the flow of arms to better understand how to control it in a targeted manner. I see nothing wrong with the methodology because there are actual structural issues with our country's and individual states' laws on the sale and transfer of weapons that are infinitely more important to address first.

If you are not serious about fixing those first, then F&F and other gunwalking operations should be the least of your concerns because it's 1) such a small, insignificant number of arms and 2) the criminals would have been armed in any case because of our weak laws. F&F and gunwalking in general are completely legitimate to me. That one of the guns may have been used in the murder of a US citizen or law enforcement agent is irrelevant because it assumes that the perpetrator would not have had a weapon if not for F&F, which is a patently absurd statement.

If one is up in arms over that, then one should be up in arms over the NRA continually cock-blocking legislation to control the sale and flow of arms.

So anyone that wants to be in an uproar over F&F needs to check their own positions first.
 
If the president was elected by national popular vote, would Romney's chances improve at all?
Gut feeling says no, but I'm just curious.
 
CharlieDigital said:
Let me be clear: in no way, shape or form do I find F&F and its predecessor under Bush to be "disastrous".

I come from a background in science so I understand the desire to map, chart, and delve into the flow of arms to better understand how to control it in a targeted manner. I see nothing wrong with the methodology because there are actual structural issues with our country's and individual states' laws on the sale and transfer of weapons that are infinitely more important to address first.
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What to be more like New Jersey? lol
 
Tim-E said:
I don't know if we'll see much of a bump, but I do fully expect the map to solidify after this week.

This is my prediction as of right now:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=vLt
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you stole my old map? :p

if Team romney goes fuck it, and relies on GOP keeping the house, they only need this and commence riots:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=vLv

200px-Trollface.svg.png
 
If it can be said that Romney got an average bounce of +2 from the RNC (going by Nate Silver), then I'm guessing Obama will get about +4 from the DNC. So, nothing dramatic. And a wash within a week anyway.

What this really represents is that Romney has lost one of his last best chances to really pull ahead in the race. His money advantage can't change minds nearly enough to the extent he needs, so Team Romney will be back to praying for a large economic event to shake the race back into competition. I think September might be a surprisingly boring month for a general election.
 
Thank you CharlieDigital for that writeup.
Exactly what I was thinking.

Black Republican said:
you stole my old map? :p

if Team romney goes fuck it, and relies on GOP keeping the house, they only need this and commence riots:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=vLv

200px-Trollface.svg.png
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In that rare case I think popular vote should decide it.

quadriplegicjon said:
Yeah, I think convention bounces are completely dead from here on out.
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I wonder if there is a source for money spent on conventions over the years.
Would be interesting to look at.
 
Snake said:
If it can be said Romney got an average bounce of +2 from the RNC (going by Nate Silver), then I'm guessing Obama will get about +4 from the DNC. So, nothing dramatic. And a wash within a week anyway.

What this really represents is that Romney has lost one of his last best chances to really pull ahead in the race. His money advantage can't change minds nearly enough to the extent he needs, so Team Romney will be back to praying for a large economic event to shake the race back into competition. I think September might be a surprisingly boring month for a general election.
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They have been betting on the debates from the start. It's a terrible bet, but what other chance did he really have?
 
The "humanizing" of Romney at the convention and the VP announcement have had no lasting positive impact for his campaign. His last shot will be the debates, which I don't see much coming from, either. At best, Romney will do "okay," but he's not going to bring the house down at any point. In addition, Romney is known to get pretty visibly angry when the right buttons are pushed.

People's minds are mostly made up, so I don't think the money is going to have a huge impact. Obama and Romney are all over TV no matter where you turn already, they can only do so much more with it. I think Obama's strategy of building up an expansive ground game very early and spending huge this summer to define Romney before he had the chance to do it himself will prove to be successful.
 
Tim-E said:
The "humanizing" of Romney at the convention and the VP announcement have had no lasting positive impact for his campaign. His last shot will be the debates, which I don't see much coming from, either. At best, Romney will do "okay," but he's not going to bring the house down at any point. In addition, Romney is known to get pretty visibly angry when the right buttons are pushed.
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Romney should rehire that debate coach in a hurry. It is his only chance. That...and major economic meltdown.
 
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