PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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gkryhewy said:
You and your obsession with marginal intrade movements! you had your chance yesterday.
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:( I had out of towners visiting and couldn't get money deposited until today.
kirblar said:
How does it work exactly- do you get paid $10 if Obama wins?
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Yeah but if you have more shares, you get paid more. So the payout difference between using $500 to buy at $6.00 vs $5.50 is $830 vs $900.
kirblar said:
I am more annoyed than ever that I just can't go all in right now.

Stupid US laws.
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You can't do a wire transfer?
Gotchaye said:
I got my money in this afternoon and put half of it in at 5.75. I was holding the other half and hoping, but it may be time to just throw it all in and wait for the election.
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I thought about doing that, but I was convinced that Obama wouldn't peak without falling back down, but he keeps climbing, climbing, climbing. I'm like 0/10 on predictions on Intrade. I'd make a terrible analyst.
 
Kevitivity said:
lol. He's not whining. He's pointing out that BO now has *nothing* to run on except silly word games. BO's positive hope and change message of 2008 has been killed.
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I wonder where this crap about the president having nothing to run on came from.

Obama has one of the best first term records around, considering where we were at on Inauguration day 2009.
 
Kevitivity said:
lol. He's not whining. He's pointing out that BO now has *nothing* to run on except silly word games. BO's positive hope and change message of 2008 has been killed.
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So like its hard to run on a message of change when you're an incumbent
 
Salvadora said:
wCjD4.png

Bad news for Obama.
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In terms of tracking polls, Gallup went up 2, IBD up 1, Ipsos down 1, RAND up 1, Wapo even. Slight move for Obama.
 
Measley said:
I wonder where this crap about the president having nothing to run on came from.

Obama has one of the best first term records around, considering where we were at on Inauguration day 2009.
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Name one thing he can run on.

-The stimulus failed
-Bin Laden was caught by continuing Bush's policies
-Romney said he supported a bailout of GM as well
 
Oblivion said:
Name one thing he can run on.

-The stimulus failed
-Bin Laden was caught by continuing Bush's policies
-Romney said he supported a bailout of GM as well
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-The stimulus worked. Which is why we're gaining jobs each month instead of losing them.
-Bush's policy was to ignore Bin Ladin. Iraq was always more important.
-Romney supported a bankruptcy, not a bailout.
 
Say, is there a subsection of Pollgaf that goes nutty over meaningless numbers that aren't polls?

Last year, I was really curious about unemployment, so I compiled a list of unemployment numbers for every January as well as any month that involved a transfer of power of Presidents.

I thought it was really interesting how the metric of change in unemployment from beginning to end of a President's stay in office fell so astonishingly neatly across party lines. I was wondering if (A) there's anything I missed in my compilation (like using incorrect numbers somewhere), and (B) what specifically might explain such consistency. Because, I mean, obviously the Republicans of 1950 aren't exactly the same as those of this past decade, and Obama doesn't have all the same policies as Johnson.

Anyway, I know this is sort of Off Topic here, but I found it interesting, and maybe some other folk here will, as well.

Spoiler:
Reagan is literally the only Republican who is surrounded by Democrats on the chart at the bottom


edit: whoops, just made it public!
 
Obama has no record? Now it becomes clear why Romney has to lie about him so much. How else would you run against someone who has no record?
 
Obama awoke to the sounds of cheers. He had barely managed to steal two hours of sleep before hearing the roar of the crowd, thousands of young people cheering his name. He looked around his empty hotel room and sighed; it was moments like these where he wished he still smoked. During campaign season it was always hard for Obama to sleep, and when he did sleep his tortured dreams were dominated by the voices of rallies he had attended earlier. The noise stayed with him, even during his quietest moments.

Slowly, Obama arose from the bed and paced around his room. It was 4AM and Barack Obama was alone. He had campaigned earlier in the day with his wife, but she had flown back to Washington after the rally without saying goodbye; he had asked her to stay the night with him, but she had sarcastically noted that he was a big boy now and could sleep by himself. Her barb had hurt the president, but after 20 years of similar insults he was used to it.

Depressed, Obama slowly scrolled through his Blackberry looking for someone, anyone to talk to.

----

Hillary Clinton heard her husband's voice for the first time in weeks. As she casually flipped channels she came across Bill looking straight into her soul through the television - championing Barack Obama in a campaign ad. President Barack Obama. She had worked alongside him for four years now, yet the title still gave her a slight feeling of agitation. If all had gone as planned, she would be running for re-election right now as Senator Obama rallied young voters for her cause. The loss still stung after all these years, but especially on this sleepless night.

And yet she knew her irritation with her boss was masking her true feelings. Obama had proven her wrong over the last four years: he was strong where she predicted weakness, steady where she anticipated confusion. The job had aged the president and yet his youthful energy and intellect remained. He was still a young man, and even the most stressful moments had not robbed him of his youth.

Her young male aides often joked and laughed with her, but she could tell they thought of her as an old woman now. She tried imagining being with them but even the thought was disgusted her. Her endometriosis made sex painful, and the last thing she needed was a young stud rushing things. More importantly, young men often lacked the attributes she cherished: compassion, romantic, a calm spirit as comfortable alone with her by the fireplace as he would be in a crowd; the opposite of her impulsive, selfish husband. As she sat alone, conjuring the attributes of her perfect man, she realized she was describing someone she knew. She had known for years, yet her anger and jealousy had blocked the truth. Tears filled her eyes. The phone rang.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Obama awoke to the sounds of cheers. He had barely managed to steal two hours of sleep before hearing the roar of the crowd, thousands of young people cheering his name. He looked around his empty hotel room and sighed; it was moments like these where he wished he still smoked. During campaign season it was always hard for Obama to sleep, and when he did sleep his tortured dreams were dominated by the voices of rallies he had attended earlier. The noise stayed with him, even during his quietest moments.

Slowly, Obama arose from the bed and paced around his room. It was 4AM and Barack Obama was alone. He had campaigned earlier in the day with his wife, but she had flown back to Washington after the rally without saying goodbye; he had asked her to stay the night with him, but she had sarcastically noted that he was a big boy now and could sleep by himself. Her barb had hurt the president, but after 20 years of similar insults he was used to it.

Depressed, Obama slowly scrolled through his Blackberry looking for someone, anyone to talk to.

----

Hillary Clinton heard her husband's voice for the first time in weeks. As she casually flipped channels she came across Bill looking straight into her soul through the television - championing Barack Obama in a campaign ad. President Barack Obama. She had worked alongside him for four years now, yet the title still gave her a slight feeling of agitation. If all had gone as planned, she would be running for re-election right now as Senator Obama rallied young voters for her cause. The loss still stung after all these years, but especially on this sleepless night.

And yet she knew her irritation with her boss was masking her true feelings. Obama had proven her wrong over the last four years: he was strong where she predicted weakness, steady where she anticipated confusion. The job had aged the president and yet his youthful energy and intellect remained. He was still a young man, and even the most stressful moments had not robbed him of his youth.

Her young male aides often joked and laughed with her, but she could tell they thought of her as an old woman now. She tried imagining being with them but even the thought was disgusted her. Her endometriosis made sex painful, and the last thing she needed was a young stud rushing things. More importantly, young men often lacked the attributes she cherished: compassion, romantic, a calm spirit as comfortable alone with her by the fireplace as he would be in a crowd; the opposite of her impulsive, selfish husband. As she sat alone, conjuring the attributes of her perfect man, she realized she was describing someone she knew. She had known for years, yet her anger and jealousy had blocked the truth. Tears filled her eyes. The phone rang.
Click to expand...
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
 
GameplayWhore said:
Say, is there a subsection of Pollgaf that goes nutty over meaningless numbers that aren't polls?

Last year, I was really curious about unemployment, so I compiled a list of unemployment numbers for every January as well as any month that involved a transfer of power of Presidents.

I thought it was really interesting how the metric of change in unemployment from beginning to end of a President's stay in office fell so astonishingly neatly across party lines. I was wondering if (A) there's anything I missed in my compilation (like using incorrect numbers somewhere), and (B) what specifically might explain such consistency. Because, I mean, obviously the Republicans of 1950 aren't exactly the same as those of this past decade, and Obama doesn't have all the same policies as Johnson.

Anyway, I know this is sort of Off Topic here, but I found it interesting, and maybe some other folk here will, as well.

Spoiler:
Reagan is literally the only Republican who is surrounded by Democrats on the chart at the bottom


edit: whoops, just made it public!
Click to expand...
I think this is probably vulnerable to the same criticism as the more typical "the economy grows more under Ds than Rs". When you're counting the February after a president takes office as part of that president's record, you're giving them credit/blame for something that their predecessor is a lot more responsible for. I bet you'd see a much smaller effect if you did this from May instead of January.
 
Gotchaye said:
I think this is probably vulnerable to the same criticism as the more typical "the economy grows more under Ds than Rs". When you're counting the February after a president takes office as part of that president's record, you're giving them credit/blame for something that their predecessor is a lot more responsible for. I bet you'd see a much smaller effect if you did this from May instead of January.
Click to expand...

Ooh, that sounds like something I might try out! With equivalent four-month shifts for prematurely ended terms.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Obama awoke to the sounds of cheers. He had barely managed to steal two hours of sleep before hearing the roar of the crowd, thousands of young people cheering his name. He looked around his empty hotel room and sighed; it was moments like these where he wished he still smoked. During campaign season it was always hard for Obama to sleep, and when he did sleep his tortured dreams were dominated by the voices of rallies he had attended earlier. The noise stayed with him, even during his quietest moments.

Slowly, Obama arose from the bed and paced around his room. It was 4AM and Barack Obama was alone. He had campaigned earlier in the day with his wife, but she had flown back to Washington after the rally without saying goodbye; he had asked her to stay the night with him, but she had sarcastically noted that he was a big boy now and could sleep by himself. Her barb had hurt the president, but after 20 years of similar insults he was used to it.

Depressed, Obama slowly scrolled through his Blackberry looking for someone, anyone to talk to.

----

Hillary Clinton heard her husband's voice for the first time in weeks. As she casually flipped channels she came across Bill looking straight into her soul through the television - championing Barack Obama in a campaign ad. President Barack Obama. She had worked alongside him for four years now, yet the title still gave her a slight feeling of agitation. If all had gone as planned, she would be running for re-election right now as Senator Obama rallied young voters for her cause. The loss still stung after all these years, but especially on this sleepless night.

And yet she knew her irritation with her boss was masking her true feelings. Obama had proven her wrong over the last four years: he was strong where she predicted weakness, steady where she anticipated confusion. The job had aged the president and yet his youthful energy and intellect remained. He was still a young man, and even the most stressful moments had not robbed him of his youth.

Her young male aides often joked and laughed with her, but she could tell they thought of her as an old woman now. She tried imagining being with them but even the thought was disgusted her. Her endometriosis made sex painful, and the last thing she needed was a young stud rushing things. More importantly, young men often lacked the attributes she cherished: compassion, romantic, a calm spirit as comfortable alone with her by the fireplace as he would be in a crowd; the opposite of her impulsive, selfish husband. As she sat alone, conjuring the attributes of her perfect man, she realized she was describing someone she knew. She had known for years, yet her anger and jealousy had blocked the truth. Tears filled her eyes. The phone rang.
Click to expand...

YESSSS
 
Just had to smack down one of my friends on Facebook who posted the chain e-mail about the economics professor talking about how Obama's "socialism" didn't work.

I think I was pretty diplomatic.
 
I have a weird sense of confidence in Obama winning. It feels good.

I no longer get annoyed or compelled to rebuke my conversative friends or coworkers that lash out at Obama. I know that Obama is simply going to win. He has made the best case and anyone that disagrees is a lost cause, no point in arguing with them.

I can't be the only one, especially after the 3rd debate.
 
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