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[electricpirate]

Ummm... I'm guessing you didn't

RCP O+.8
Pollster O+2
TPM r+1
Pec is predictin it will go red

Sounds like a tie to me.

 

[Suikoguy]

According to CNN California is in play.

It's CNN everything is tied!

 

[Tim-E]

Two weeks from now PoliGAF can go back to being boring policy talk; AKA my favorite PoliGAF, despite my love of elections.

 

[gcubed]

That's a bit of a non sequitur - they don't really have anything to do with each other. As people have pointed out the national average doesnt really matter. I would note that this is same Gallup poll that was discredited, then cheered today when it moved towards Obama.

Right but either way its in the averages. I don't know why its even worth arguing removing a poll from averages.

The polling average is not tied. The state is definitely one of the closer ones though.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

so all democratic states right now

seems like a bad idea

It is.

 

[GhaleonEB]

That's a bit of a non sequitur - they don't really have anything to do with each other. As people have pointed out the national average doesnt really matter. I would note that this is same Gallup poll that was discredited, then cheered today when it moved towards Obama.

The Gallup LV poll is mocked because it is a hilariously improbable outlier. The move today was welcomed because even as an outlier, directional movement can be inferred from daily changes, even if we still consider the underlying methodology unsound. Especially when that directional movement is supported by other trackers on the same day.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Mittens. Rombot.

etc,

pots, kettles

I also think Mittens is stupid. Like what the hell is that even supposed to mean? Is he supposed to be a kitten? Is he supposed to be a hand accessory?

 

[Forever]

I like to call him Nitt Nomney, winner of the Republican Nom Nom.

 

[pigeon]

That's a bit of a non sequitur - they don't really have anything to do with each other. As people have pointed out the national average doesnt really matter. I would note that this is same Gallup poll that was discredited, then cheered today when it moved towards Obama.

You're completely misunderstanding the reaction there. If the average poll result is even and Gallup shows R +6 then Gallup is necessarily wrong. That doesn't mean that Gallup moving towards Obama doesn't increase the average, which is a good sign for him. In the same way, the O +9 poll is probably an outlier, but that doesn't mean it's meaningless -- it still suggests that the correct number is higher than the other polls indicate.

 

[Manmademan]

RCP O+.8
Pollster O+2
TPM r+1
Pec is predictin it will go red

Sounds like a tie to me.

National polling is useless, because we don't elect presidents that way.

Romney is vastly overperforming in the southern states by 20 point margins, but losing in the west, east, and northern states. Obama is leading within every swing state sans North Carolina and Florida (edit: and tied in CO) none of which he needs to win.

So as far as electoral votes go- no, it's not a tie, not anywhere close. without extremely bad news, he takes this in a walk.

 

[electricpirate]

National polling is useless, because we don't elect presidents that way.

Romney is vastly overperforming in the southern states by 20 point margins, but losing in the west, east, and northern states. Obama is leading within every swing state sans North Carolina and Florida (edit: and tied in CO) none of which he needs to win.

So as far as electoral votes go- no, it's not a tie, not anywhere close. without extremely bad news, he takes this in a walk.

Those are nh numbers.

 

[The Librarian]

I also think Mittens is stupid. Like what the hell is that even supposed to mean? Is he supposed to be a kitten? Is he supposed to be a hand accessory?

You know, a mitten. Like you wear on your hand.

 

[GashPrex]

The Gallup LV poll is mocked because it is a hilariously improbable outlier. The move today was welcomed because even as an outlier, directional movement can be inferred from daily changes, even if we still consider the underlying methodology unsound. Especially when that directional movement is supported by other trackers on the same day.

I see - and that unh poll of plus 9 isn't a "hilariously improbable outlier"?

 

[pigeon]

RCP O+.8
Pollster O+2
TPM r+1
Pec is predictin it will go red

Sounds like a tie to me.

538 has New Hampshire at 67% chance to go blue. NH consistently ends up voting bluer than the polls, because it's in New England.

 

[Mifune]

I don't see anything wrong with the electoral college. It has worked pretty well so far.

 

[Frank the Great]

Obama awoke to the sounds of cheers. He had barely managed to steal two hours of sleep before hearing the roar of the crowd, thousands of young people cheering his name. He looked around his empty hotel room and sighed; it was moments like these where he wished he still smoked. During campaign season it was always hard for Obama to sleep, and when he did sleep his tortured dreams were dominated by the voices of rallies he had attended earlier. The noise stayed with him, even during his quietest moments.

Slowly, Obama arose from the bed and paced around his room. It was 4AM and Barack Obama was alone. He had campaigned earlier in the day with his wife, but she had flown back to Washington after the rally without saying goodbye; he had asked her to stay the night with him, but she had sarcastically noted that he was a big boy now and could sleep by himself. Her barb had hurt the president, but after 20 years of similar insults he was used to it.

Depressed, Obama slowly scrolled through his Blackberry looking for someone, anyone to talk to.

----

Hillary Clinton heard her husband's voice for the first time in weeks. As she casually flipped channels she came across Bill looking straight into her soul through the television - championing Barack Obama in a campaign ad. President Barack Obama. She had worked alongside him for four years now, yet the title still gave her a slight feeling of agitation. If all had gone as planned, she would be running for re-election right now as Senator Obama rallied young voters for her cause. The loss still stung after all these years, but especially on this sleepless night.

And yet she knew her irritation with her boss was masking her true feelings. Obama had proven her wrong over the last four years: he was strong where she predicted weakness, steady where she anticipated confusion. The job had aged the president and yet his youthful energy and intellect remained. He was still a young man, and even the most stressful moments had not robbed him of his youth.

Her young male aides often joked and laughed with her, but she could tell they thought of her as an old woman now. She tried imagining being with them but even the thought was disgusted her. Her endometriosis made sex painful, and the last thing she needed was a young stud rushing things. More importantly, young men often lacked the attributes she cherished: compassion, romantic, a calm spirit as comfortable alone with her by the fireplace as he would be in a crowd; the opposite of her impulsive, selfish husband. As she sat alone, conjuring the attributes of her perfect man, she realized she was describing someone she knew. She had known for years, yet her anger and jealousy had blocked the truth. Tears filled her eyes. The phone rang.

 

[Forever]

I don't see anything wrong with the electoral college. It has worked pretty well so far.

2000.

 

[pigeon]

I see - and that unh poll of plus 9 isn't a "hilariously improbable outlier"?

Again, that Gallup poll is the only reason people weren't arguing that Obama had a huge lead in national polls -- it was factored in.

 

[Black Mamba]

I also think Mittens is stupid. Like what the hell is that even supposed to mean? Is he supposed to be a kitten? Is he supposed to be a hand accessory?

I like and use mittens because its an endearing name a loved one might use. The name itself isn't insulting. It's like saying "oh you" but ironically.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

You know, a mitten. Like you wear on your hand.

Yeah but what does that mean? Like how is that an insult?

 

[Tim-E]

The electoral college isn't going anywhere.

 

[Mifune]

2000.

Yeah, but we don't elect Presidents by popular vote. What screwed Gore was the bogus Florida recount, not the EC. The EC just does what it always does.

 

[Gotchaye]

If you want the president elected by popular vote, then support electing the president by popular vote, not that unconstitutional jury rigged mess.

I understand not liking the idea, or thinking that such a large change to the system really ought to only occur with the consent of a supermajority, but I'm scratching my head at "unconstitutional". What's your thinking there?


Edit: I'd also note that 2000 doesn't necessarily show that the EC has failed. The problem is that if the campaign had taken place in the context of an NPV system, it would have developed differently. Candidates would apportion their time and money differently (and might even be different candidates with different positions), and turnout rates and even the percentage of voters identifying as D or R would change. You can't argue from EC-governed elections in which the EC winner wasn't the NPV winner that the result would have been different in an NPV-governed election. Arguments for one or the other have to instead make reference to some model of what the NPV-governed outcome would be, or else they have to focus on procedural issues rather than outcomes.

 

[Forever]

Yeah, but we don't elect Presidents by popular vote. What screwed Gore was the bogus Florida recount, not the EC. The EC just does what it always does.

Gore won the popular vote.

 

[pigeon]

I'm gonna say 72% for 538.

 

[Mifune]

Gore won the popular vote.

Who cares? You can't change the system because of one bad result. And like I said, what really screwed Gore was Florida. Had nothing to do with the EC.

 

[Half and half]

Yeah but what does that mean? Like how is that an insult?

I kinda like Rmoney. It doesn't roll of the tongue well. But it sums him up pretty well w/o being too offensive.

 

[Thaedolus]

Who cares? You can't change the system because of one bad result. And like I said, what really screwed Gore was Florida. Had nothing to do with the EC.

Uhhh...if the electoral college didn't exist, then Florida would have been irrelevant. Surely you understand this?

 

[GashPrex]

Again, that Gallup poll is the only reason people weren't arguing that Obama had a huge lead in national polls -- it was factored in.

I'm sorry the data doesn't support the proposition that if you took the Gallup poll out that "Obama had a huge lead in national polls" - unlike the removal of the unh poll which would show a tied state.

 

[Chichikov]

I like and use mittens because its an endearing name a loved one might use. The name itself isn't insulting. It's like saying "oh you" but ironically.

Yeah, I put Mittens on the same level as Bam's.
It's all silly, but that's not really a terrible thing, anything that makes us treat our elected officials as normal people is good in my book.

 

[AniHawk]

Mittens. Rombot.

etc,

pots, kettles

i always thought mittens was kinda cute.

i like 'obummer' too though so what do i know.

 

[pigeon]

I'm sorry the data doesn't support the proposition that if you took the Gallup poll out that "Obama had a huge lead in national polls" - unlike the removal of the unh poll which would show a tied state.

If we didn't factor in the Gallup poll, Obama would've had a 2-3 point national lead for the past two weeks. Maybe huge is overstating it.

 

[Tim-E]

2000 sucked, but liberals need to move on.

 

[speculawyer]

Umm, a bankruptcy is what happened. Do obama fans not know this?

Rick Santorum is one of your favorite party's prominent politicians. Do you know that?

 

[Mifune]

Uhhh...if the electoral college didn't exist, then Florida would have been irrelevant. Surely you understand this?

EC is the system. To say "if the EC didn't exist" is fucking ludicrous because it has always existed. So talk of making Florida irrelevant is itself irrelevant. Given the system we have and had in 2000, what screwed Gore was the recount.

Again, you can't just overhaul the entire system because one time you didn't get the result you wanted.

 

[The Librarian]

I like Mittens, Rombot, Obummer, Bams.

Let's create stylized, intending-to-beinsulting nicknames for PoliGAF members!

EC is the system. To say "if the EC didn't exist" is fucking ludicrous because it has always existed. So talk of making Florida irrelevant is itself irrelevant. Given the system we have and had in 2000, what "screwed" Gore was the recount.

Again, you can't just overhaul the entire system because one time you didn't get the result you wanted.

It has happened more than once, and what makes you so sure Gore would've won the recount? Why should we accept a system that sometimes produces the opposite results of what the people want?

 

[AniHawk]

I like Mittens, Rombot, Obummer, Bams.

Let's create stylized, intending-to-beinsulting nicknames for PoliGAF members!

i always preferred anihwak.

 

[HylianTom]

Is The Race In Ohio Already Over?

As both presidential campaigns ratchet up their efforts to capture Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, recent polling suggests the race might already be over—for Mitt Romney.

Certain key data from the latest polls suggest that President Obama’s victory in the Buckeye State could be a foregone conclusion — because each survey suggests that President Obama holds a double digit lead among those who have already voted.

SurveyUSA’s poll showed Obama leading 57 to 38 percent — a 19-point margin. Rasmussen Reports, a Republican-leaning pollster, found Obama leading by 29 points, 63 to 34 percent. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News showed Obama ahead by 26 points, 63 to 37 percent. A PPP poll found Obama leading by the largest margin of all, 76 to 24 percent. In all of these cases, the numbers cited reflect only those who have already voted.

Another important indicator that bodes well for Obama can be found in the registration numbers. According to a memo released by the Obama campaign, four in five in Ohioans who have registered to vote this cycle are either female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino, which are all demographics that lean strongly Democratic. Additionally, almost two-thirds of Ohioans who registered to vote live in counties where Obama won in 2008.

http://www.nationalmemo.com/is-the-race-in-ohio-already-over/

More more more!

 

[markatisu]

I'm sorry the data doesn't support the proposition that if you took the Gallup poll out that "Obama had a huge lead in national polls" - unlike the removal of the unh poll which would show a tied state.

Huge lead is overstating it but it would have at least been a consistent 1-2 point lead which would have completely changed the narrative

 

[Tim-E]

Went on a 4 hour trip with coworkers to a training seminar. I had to listen some go on about how liberal CNN is, Solyndra, and how Obama cooks employment figures.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

Gore won the popular vote.

By less than 0.5% of the vote. Imagine the recounts in every state, not just FL.

 

[speculawyer]

so all democratic states right now

seems like a bad idea

It only triggers into action if more than 270 electoral votes of states sign up for it.


And LOL at Squirrel Killer, constitutional authority.

 

[coldfoot]

It is.

Because the constitution is a perfect document, amirite?

 

[coldfoot]

2000 sucked, but liberals need to move on.

Every single US citizen who voted for Bush in 2000 is as guilty as any German who voted for Hitler in 1933.

 

[Angry Grimace]

The electoral college must be changed. It should be one person, one vote. The popular vote should be the primary factor in term of election. I've already seen Gore get fucked because of it. I wonder how many times it's going to take for someone to get screwed before it is changed?

A popular vote has its own set of problems, mainly with differences in turnout in various places. Besides the argument that differences in the popular vote and the electoral college is indicative of a faulty system is problematic to begin with since the numbers would look very different if we were on a popular vote system since you'd a massively larger turnout in places like California that are already locked up for a particular candidate. Its for this reason that the popular vote is a meaningless metric as to whether the electoral college "works" or not.

 

[gkryhewy]

Every single US citizen who voted for Bush in 2000 is as guilty as any German who voted for Hitler in 1933.

This is a stupid fucking post.

 

[Tim-E]

Every single US citizen who voted for Bush in 2000 is as guilty as any German who voted for Hitler in 1933.

If this isn't sarcasm, what the fuck.

 

[HylianTom]

Every single US citizen who voted for Bush in 2000 is as guilty as any German who voted for Hitler in 1933.

Damn. And I thought I was bitter-salty about it.

 

[Chichikov]

The issue with the electoral college is not so much what happened in 2000, those things almost never happen and honestly, considering the huge gap in turnout between swing and safe states, I wouldn't make too much out of it anyway.
The problem with the electoral college that it skew our policy toward a small number of states.

If Florida wasn't a swing state, we would've removed the silly and anachronistic trade embargo we have against Cuba.
If Iowa wasn't a swing state (or early in the primaries) we wouldn't have the biodiesel tax credit.

This is not a smart way to run a democracy.

Also, it makes people in safe states feel like their voice is not heard and their vote doesn't matter, which is never healthy.

 

[coldfoot]

you'd a massively larger turnout in places like California that are already locked up for a particular candidate.

With NPV, no state would be "locked up" for a particular candidate as who the state votes for overall is meaningless, the only important statistic is the numerical vote difference between the candidates and how they add up with the 49 remaining states to determine the total count.