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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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C

Cloudy

Banned
GashPrex said:
Its really not - almost all polls, including the "battle ground" states are within the margin of error.

In fact, the funny part on a lot of these graphs people post appear to be huge changes are literally 1-2% points. Would I prefer to be Obama on these polls that have him up 1 to 2% ? Absolutely, but IMO with all the variables out there I wouldn't bet say, $5000 on the outcome on a 1-2% difference. Other people seem to be pretty comfortable with it though.
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In the case of OH, it's not just MOE. There are few if ANY polls recently giving Romney anything better than a tie. Also, state polls typically have a smaller MOE than national polls due to sample size. With early voting going on since the 2nd, that doesn't look good for Mitt at all...
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cloudy said:
In the case of OH, it's not just MOE. There are few if ANY polls recently giving Romney anything better than a tie. Also, state polls typically have a smaller MOE than national polls due to sample size. With early voting going on since the 2nd, that doesn't look good for Mitt at all...
Click to expand...

Don't you dare...
 
D

Darkgran

Member
Ok. I just have to get this out again. Romney is behind in this election and always has been. Even after the bump of the first debate Romney is still behind. This myth that Romney is ahead is created by Romney and some of the media but its just not true. Obama is going to win.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Darkgran said:
Ok. I just have to get this out again. Romney is behind in this election and always has been. Even after the bump of the first debate Romney is still behind. This myth that Romney is ahead is created by Romney and some of the media but its just not true. Obama is going to win.
Click to expand...

But Chuck Todd said...
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Darkgran said:
Ok. I just have to get this out again. Romney is behind in this election and always has been. Even after the bump of the first debate Romney is still behind. This myth that Romney is ahead is created by Romney and some of the media but its just not true. Obama is going to win.
Click to expand...

My mind knows the probabilities are strongly on Obama's side, but my gut feeling can't be dissuaded. I know Obama has massive electoral advantages, but I can't help but be nervous until the election is over.
 
A

apana

Member
Darkgran said:
Ok. I just have to get this out again. Romney is behind in this election and always has been. Even after the bump of the first debate Romney is still behind. This myth that Romney is ahead is created by Romney and some of the media but its just not true. Obama is going to win.
Click to expand...

Romney was ahead in the polls, what did you want people to report? Even now it seems like it could go either way. For all we know people will break towards Romney in the final days.
 
A

Allard

Member
Bowdz said:
My mind knows the probabilities are strongly on Obama's side, but my gut feeling can't be dissuaded. I know Obama has massive electoral advantages, but I can't help but be nervous until the election is over.
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Keep that feeling up, if it gets you out to vote then it means (hopefully) better results for down-ticket races alongside the presidential. Complacency is not what we need right now.
 
N

NullPointer

Member
GashPrex said:
doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in the process to me. I am not saying its completely useless, but I don't have enough confidence in the mathematics being applied and data to say "if we combine these 8 polls, regardless of their flawed methodologies (biases, error, sample, outliers etc..) that when we weight them and come out with a number, this will negate the inherent error issues with these polls"
Click to expand...
Nah, you can just bundle up the good with the bad and slap a AAA rating on it. What could possibly go wrong?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
ZnN8q.jpg


http://www.ctj.org/pdf/romneysofar.pdf
 
R

rSpooky

Member
OMG the Facebook posts are starting to kill me, I want to respond but what is the point right now , they close their eyes an ears and go lalalalala. Besides they are great people on any other level.

Scene: dinner table. Obama commercial on TV
The Spouse: You know I didnt vote for him last time, but after watching that documentary the other night (2016) he never should have been allowed to run in the first place. Why wasnt this info made public last time. I dont like either of them. Thats why people dont want to vote.
The reply: True, butf people dont vote the evilest of the 2 will win, so you just have to vote the lesser of 2 evils.
The spouse: exactly.
Scene ends
Click to expand...

sigh, what is it with this evil stuff? Not liking results, or someones ideas or disagreeing with the way forward is fine,that is a difference of opinion, but this is just insanity.. Obama the evil destroyer of America.. hur hur..


Lucky for me I will be getting surgery and then be doped up for the evening of the results, that should keep my nerves down ..lol
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Officerrob said:
Shuck and jive? Christ, is she so dumb that she doesn't realize that you are supposed to hide the racism better then that?
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Don't you guys realize by now it has nothing to do with her being dumb? She constantly makes these comments that put a toe on the line of prejudice in order to stir up the left. And once she gets accused of being racist, homophobic, sexist, etc she pulls the victim card while denouncing political correctness

You people are giving her two news cycles for every one stupid thing she says - one for your outrage, another for hers.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Allard said:
Keep that feeling up, if it gets you out to vote then it means (hopefully) better results for down-ticket races alongside the presidential. Complacency is not what we need right now.
Click to expand...

I voted the first day early voting went live in New Mexico. It feels great to get it out of the way, but I wish I was living in a more contested state. Ohio is the place to be by all accounts and I wish I could be on the ground helping with the effort.
 
T

TiVo

Member
ClovingWestbrook said:
'It began prior to the second debate when Obama -feeling the pressure like never before- was unable to sleep. His phone vibrated and upon picking it up he saw it was Hillary. Trying to not awaken his lovely wife Michelle from her precious sleep, he took the phone into the Oval Office.

'Hello Hillary, how did you know I was still awake?'
'Mr.President, I know the pressures that a man in your position has, for I saw it in Bill for those 8 difficult years. I just wanted to let you know that I am available for you in any way I can be.'
'Hillary, that means the world to me. Michelle, she simply doesn't appreciate the weight that I carry upon my shoulders day in and day out. It's comforting to know that I have you by my side. I am just sitting here in the Oval Office trying to prepare for tomorrows debate. I have to say that I am quite nervous.'
'Mr.President, I fully understand. I have a confession to make... I...'
'Hillary? Are you ok?'
'Yes Mr.President, I am... I just am thinking of what my husband did in the very room that you are currently in... and I don't know...'
'Hillary, I am not sure I understand...'
'Mr.President, I have always been jealous of Ms.Lewinsky, that she was able to make my husband feel a way that I wasn't able to produce...'
'Hillary, I am not sure that we should be having this conversation... for I am a married man...'
'Mr.President, I want to be your Ms.Lewinsky, if only for one night...'
'Hillary...'

To be continued
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Steve-Urkel-expressions.gif
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Don't you guys realize by now it has nothing to do with her being dumb? She constantly makes these comments that put a toe on the line of prejudice in order to stir up the left. And once she gets accused of being racist, homophobic, sexist, etc she pulls the victim card while denouncing political correctness

You people are giving her two news cycles for every one stupid thing she says - one for your outrage, another for hers.
Click to expand...

So she's a Republican real life version of you?
 
R

Revolver

Member
Touchdown said:
And today he said this is BIGGER than Watergate. Tomorrow, he will ask for the impeachment.
Click to expand...

Yeah a co-worker was listening to that stuff today. Rush said that this is even worse because in this case Woodward and Bernstein (aka the mainstream media) are aiding Nixon (Obama) in the cover up instead of exposing it. SMH.
 
R

Red Blaster

Member
Kevitivity said:
lol. He's not whining. He's pointing out that BO now has *nothing* to run on except silly word games. BO's positive hope and change message of 2008 has been killed.
Click to expand...

As much as it pains me to say it, you're absolutely right. That 90k person Romney rally in Ohio yesterday really showed just how much momentum he has right now.

Election night is gonna be torturous.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
Ugh Intrade all the way back up to $5.99. I should've bought at $5.80.
YOU COULDN'T WAIT ONE MORE DAY!?
Click to expand...

I got my money in this afternoon and put half of it in at 5.75. I was holding the other half and hoping, but it may be time to just throw it all in and wait for the election.
 
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