PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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thefro

Member
Cloudy said:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...on/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

This is quite possibly the best analysis I've seen this cycle and he's using numbers instead of anecdotes or gut instincts. He is a partisan but he doesn't let his views or campaign spin bleed into his work. Wish the rest of the political analysts could approach things this way
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Yep, that's a total sabermetrics-style piece there. Really brilliant work (i.e., the conventional wisdom says X, but here's why I think Y is true and the facts to back it up).
 
M

mdrudge

Neo Member
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-leads-in-swing-state-newspaper-endorsements/
 
G

Gruco

Banned
On the other hand, maybe Mitt Romney's tax returns will show up in the rubble after Sandy hits his accountant's office in Boston.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Tim-E said:
I hope he gets absolutely destroyed for saying this. This is a catastrophically stupid thing to say; local and state officials are nowhere near as knowledgeable in how to handle these situations and leadership is typically a mess; with state governments, local governments, and nonprofits not being aware of their exact role in relief efforts. If the federal government is going to spend the money in helping with these situations it needs to provide oversight, as well.

Letting the state and local relief efforts just do whatever is one of the main reasons Katrina caused as much long-term damage as it did. If the federal government had stepped in earlier and led the situation there would've been fewer lives lost.
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Yeah. It would be disastrous to fully devolve responsibility to state and local governments. They fulfill a useful role in lesser emergencies. But the federal government is essential to properly respond to large disasters. It's not solely a matter of resources, either. They not only provide the necessary oversight, they are not impeded by borders. I would support bolstering the capabilities of state and local governments. But they cannot adequately replace federal capabilities.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
I know everyone is being facetious, but Romney winning traditionally blue states (as in all states that always go blue when Reagan isn't running) would probably be the catalyst for major election reform by Democrats. 1 month early voting, absentee ballots, etc.
 
G

gcubed

Member
AlteredBeast said:
I know everyone is being facetious, but Romney winning traditionally blue states (as in all states that always go blue when Reagan isn't running) would probably be the catalyst for major election reform by Democrats. 1 month early voting, absentee ballots, etc.
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i dont think you need 1 month. I think you should be able to do 1 week early voting EVERYWHERE. Thats not even going crazy like registration and voting the same day. Its so archaic to have a single day
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
The idea of letting states, many which have absolutely fucking stupid leadership and totally out-of-whack priorities, singlehandedly manage emergency response is too ludicrous for words.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
The storm is reaching "debates don't matter" status here. I must admit I didn't think the storm was worth discussing either, but now we know many people will be without power for weeks. The last thing these folks will think about is voting. I'm not sure anyone knows what will happen in a situation like that. Will the election be postponed? Maybe a special order to allow early voting ASAP? And if not, wouldn't this impact the popular vote?

This is like a potentially biblical situation. I'm not going to go crazy because we have no control over this, might as well wait and see. But this looks rather brutal as of right now, and snide comments and dismissive posts don't really address the potential magnitude of this.
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
The storm is reaching "debates don't matter" status here. I must admit I didn't think the storm was worth discussing either, but now we know many people will be without power for weeks. The last thing these folks will think about is voting. I'm not sure anyone knows what will happen in a situation like that. Will the election be postponed? Maybe a special order to allow early voting ASAP? And if not, wouldn't this impact the popular vote?

This is like a potentially biblical situation. I'm not going to go crazy because we have no control over this, might as well wait and see. But this looks rather brutal as of right now, and snide comments and dismissive posts don't really address the potential magnitude of this.
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Biblical eh? Oh you.
 
B

Baraka in the White House

2-Terms of Kombat
PhoenixDark said:
The storm is reaching "debates don't matter" status here. I must admit I didn't think the storm was worth discussing either, but now we know many people will be without power for weeks. The last thing these folks will think about is voting. I'm not sure anyone knows what will happen in a situation like that. Will the election be postponed? Maybe a special order to allow early voting ASAP? And if not, wouldn't this impact the popular vote?

This is like a potentially biblical situation. I'm not going to go crazy because we have no control over this, might as well wait and see. But this looks rather brutal as of right now, and snide comments and dismissive posts don't really address the potential magnitude of this.
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You've simply cried wolf too many times.
 
D

dabig2

Member
gcubed said:
i dont think you need 1 month. I think you should be able to do 1 week early voting EVERYWHERE. Thats not even going crazy like registration and voting the same day. Its so archaic to have a single day
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It's really dumb. 1 day was cool back when the population was 1/100 as it is right now and when black people weren't allowed to vote.

I hope the Dems at least push to make that single day a national holiday.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
The storm is reaching "debates don't matter" status here. I must admit I didn't think the storm was worth discussing either, but now we know many people will be without power for weeks. The last thing these folks will think about is voting. I'm not sure anyone knows what will happen in a situation like that. Will the election be postponed? Maybe a special order to allow early voting ASAP? And if not, wouldn't this impact the popular vote?

This is like a potentially biblical situation. I'm not going to go crazy because we have no control over this, might as well wait and see. But this looks rather brutal as of right now, and snide comments and dismissive posts don't really address the potential magnitude of this.
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Phoenix Dark raises a good point. There are way too many trolls and joke posts in this thread. Serious issues deserve better. Please follow his example, guys.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
The system has to change, yet we say that every year. We can say dems will push for this or that but republicans are going to continue to suppress voting and we won't ever see any significant change unless something seriously drastic happens (and yes, more drastic than a hurricane).
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Wilsongt said:
If Romney wins due to Sandy, people will truly think that getting Obama out of office was an act of God.

Lord help us.
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I was just telling my wife this yesterday. She has always believed that Romney will win just by virtue of being Mormon. I can't belittle her opinions or faith, but I did say that if this election is won by Romney on the strength of a historical storm, I would be inclined to believe her. :p

That said, Romney needs historical tornadoes, not hurricanes. His trouble lies inland with Ohio and Iowa, not the coasts...

and I am all for making election day a national holiday.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
A major portion of the country may not be able to vote next week - a portion that happens to be solid blue. That's not a potential concern...why exactly. Parts of NJ, MD, etc are completely flooded right now
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
PhoenixDark said:
A major portion of the country may not be able to vote next week - a portion that happens to be solid blue. That's not a potential concern...why exactly. Parts of NJ, MD, etc are completely flooded right now
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My worry is that a lot of voting places also function as emergency shelters. I wonder how that's gonna work.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
PhoenixDark said:
The storm is reaching "debates don't matter" status here. I must admit I didn't think the storm was worth discussing either, but now we know many people will be without power for weeks. The last thing these folks will think about is voting. I'm not sure anyone knows what will happen in a situation like that. Will the election be postponed? Maybe a special order to allow early voting ASAP? And if not, wouldn't this impact the popular vote?

This is like a potentially biblical situation. I'm not going to go crazy because we have no control over this, might as well wait and see. But this looks rather brutal as of right now, and snide comments and dismissive posts don't really address the potential magnitude of this.
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I know you're trolling but there is NOTHING to do when your powers out. I know from experience.

Unless their car and entire house is destroyed, people will be looking for any reason to get out of the house. And hey votings going on!
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
11L9g.gif


It is a big storm, not being concerned about it affecting the election at all seems short sighted. Maybe it will affect Obama and Romney the same way and won't matter, maybe it will affect one of them adversely and may matter.

We haven't had such a big storm in a big ass time, and we haven't especially had one around an election. So, nobody truly knows what effect it will have.
 
D

Downhome

Member
Please, someone explain to me how Sandy could cause Obama to lose. Is that being said only because it would keep people from making it to the polls? If that's the case, who is to say that it wouldn't affect Romney voters just as much? Is it the areas the storm is going to hit? Either way, if Obama is already ahead in those areas, I have no clue why it wouldn't affect each candidate equally, thus all leveling out.

Or is it because, depending on how Obama handles this upcoming mess, it could sway voters away from him?

Maybe I'm ignorant, but I'm not entirely sure.
 
V

Violater

Member
So my boss says no Christmas bonus this year, coworker goes on rant about this being another reason to not vote for Obama.
sigh....
 
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