Support NeoGAF

[Cheebo]

edit: double

 

[GhaleonEB]

Normally I would like to join you guys as this thread collapses under its own weight from trolling and panic and we tear a hole in the forum, but apparently it seems likely I have pneumonia and I'm too busy sleeping or constantly coughing to really follow along. Scheduled to see a doctor today to get looked at.

Pneumonia is nothing to mess around with, it nearly killed me a few years ago. Take care.

Obummer tried to rid world of press corps

Now there's a platform I can get behind.

 

[Tim-E]

Posted on electoral-vote.com:

The popular vote polls are all well and good, but in the end, don't matter. In reality, only 538 people get to vote for President--the presidential electors. As we have been pointing out since June 4th, if Obama wins the states the Democrats have won five times in a row, which seems quite likely, he has a base of 242 electoral votes. He also seems likely to win Nevada and New Mexico, bringing him to 253. How might he get the remaining 17? The scenarios are below. The swing states being fought over and the EVs are: Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4).

Florida 282
Ohio 271
North Carolina + any other swing state ≥ 272
Virginia + any other swing state except New Hampshire ≥ 272
Colorado + Iowa + New Hampshire 272


Romney's job is to make sure that none of these scenarios hold. This means he must win Florida and Ohio and probably North Carolina. He can lose Virginia, provided that he wins every other swing state. But even if he wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, he is still not home free. Even under these circumstances, he needs to win one of Colorado, Iowa, or New Hampshire. Of course, if he manages to win one of the normally blue states, like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, he gets other routes to 270, but these seem unlikely.

 

[electricpirate]

They do cellphones, they are just automated.

I thought it was illegal to auto call cells, so they did this weird mini sample and weighted the results?

 

[Cheebo]

Where was the Rasmussen number at? Twitter?

 

[The Librarian]

PD, hun, yesterday Puddles asked for suggestions for your avatar after the election. I've drawn up a couple – different variations on the same theme – to be considered.

Much love.

 

[Manmademan]

They do cellphones, they are just automated.



Romney has made no noticeable gains in Rasmussens national numbers (consistently held a 2-4 point lead). Why would their Ohio numbers suddenly change?

Robocalling cellphones is banned by federal law.

I think Rasmussen does a certain amount of internet based polling and uses that to estimate the cell phone only crowd.

 

[Cloudy]

I thought it was illegal to auto call cells,

It is. Neither Rasmussen or PPP call cellphones. They do weigh their polls though

 

[Baraka in the White House]

PD, hun, yesterday Puddles asked for suggestions for your avatar after the election. I've drawn up a couple – different variations on the same theme – to be considered.

Much love.

Oh we can do better than this.

 

[B-Dubs]

PD, hun, yesterday Puddles asked for suggestions for your avatar after the election. I've drawn up a couple – different variations on the same theme – to be considered.

Much love.

Come on man, we can do better. We can be more condescending, especially after all the trolling we've been through.

 

[phosphor112]

Very relevant with the storm a'comin.

Don't think this was posted, but...
Romney thinks FEMA should go, and money goes directly to states.

It's been reaffirmed by a Romney official.

UPDATE Sunday, 10:04 p.m.--

A Romney official reaffirmed the former governor's position Sunday evening in an email.

"Gov. Romney wants to ensure states, who are the first responders and are in the best position to aid impacted individuals and communities, have the resources and assistance they need to cope with natural disasters," the Romney official said.

UPDATE II Monday, 9:10 a.m.--

The Washington Post's Greg Sargent adds: "There’s another nugget here worth highlighting, though. In that appearance, Romney also suggested it would be 'even better' to send any and all responsibilities of the federal government 'to the private sector,' disaster response included. So: Romney essentially favored privatizing disaster response."

 

[Plinko]

Very relevant with the storm a'comin.

Don't think this was posted, but...
Romney thinks FEMA should go, and money goes directly to states.

It's been reaffirmed by a Romney official.

Unbelievable. To me, that's the dumbest thing he's said this election service.

 

[The Librarian]

Oh we can do better than this.

Come on man, we can do better. We can be more condescending, especially after all the trolling we've been through.

I can draw up some more if you guys would like, but you have to take into consideration that he definitely won't like an avatar designed by me and with my name on it. Not sure how to be more condescending so much as rubbing in his mistake.

I personally like the last one the most.

 

[B-Dubs]

I can draw up some more if you guys would like, but you have to take into consideration that he definitely won't like an avatar designed by me and with my name on it.

Gotta use your troll hand for this one. It needs to make Prince Phillip look like an amateur.

 

[phosphor112]

Unbelievable. To me, that's the dumbest thing he's said this election service.

I hope this gets spread everywhere. Fuck him to hell.

 

[Half and half]

Unbelievable. To me, that's the dumbest thing he's said this election service.

Damn, tough call on what the dumbest thing he's said has been.

CNN should do a poll. Probably will be lots of ties.

 

[The Librarian]

Gotta use your troll hand for this one. It needs to make Prince Phillip look like an amateur.

What do you think it should say?

Edit: For new page:

PD, hun, yesterday Puddles asked for suggestions for your avatar after the election. I've drawn up a couple – different variations on the same theme – to be considered.

Much love.

 

[Beer Monkey]

They do cellphones, they are just automated.

Lies.

"While we do not currently call cell phones directly when conducting our surveys, to reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview a demographically diverse panel. Just like our telephone surveys, respondents for this approach are selected on a random basis to insure the reliability of the sample. As a result, you cannot sign up to participate."

 

[B-Dubs]

What do you think it should say?

Edit: For new page:

Honestly I dunno how we can put revenge for all that trolling into one avatar without it being animated. Maybe mention Bad new for... in there somewhere?

 

[LosDaddie]

Awesome. I hope I get a sticker when I vote. I think I'll be early voting on Friday. It'll be in Arkansas, so it'll be pointless, but maybe I can +1 legalizing marijuana (not that I care, but it seems everyone else does).

7am early voting worked like a charm today. No lines. Just went right in and took care of business. I'll be doing this from now on, until Repubs restrict early voting even more.

There were a couple people on FB saying they waited 2hrs+ on Sat :|. Yeah, FL is going red this cycle

 

[Clevinger]

It pisses me off no one in the media is getting on the Romney campaigns case for campaigning full steam will the Obama campaign shuts down during Sandy.

As long as he doesn't politicize Sandy, I don't see much of a problem. But knowing Romney though, especially a desperate Romney, well...

 

[HylianTom]

Bloomberg: Dems building 'significant advantage' in early voting in Iowa & Nevada

In two of the most competitive states in the U.S. presidential race -- Iowa and Nevada -- Democrats are building a significant advantage in early voting. ...

By the end of this week, McDonald said the proportion of early voting in Iowa, as compared to 2008’s total vote, could grow to 45 percent. If current trends for ballots requested and ballots returned remain unchanged through this week, he said Obama’s advantage could become almost insurmountable for Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Thus far in Nevada, where an even larger proportion of the vote has been cast than in Iowa when compared to the 2008 vote, Democrats have accounted for 45.4 percent, according to the Nevada secretary of state’s office. Republicans have accounted for 37.2 percent and independent voters for 17.4 percent.

Heavily Democratic Clark County, Nevada’s most populous and where Las Vegas is located, has seen people registered with the president’s party cast 121,298 early and absentee ballots, compared to 81,512 for Republicans, through Oct. 27.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans.html

Just a tiny lil' bump of Hopium this morning. The article also mentions Colorado looking a bit less rosy, but the fundamentals of this race overall still look damn fine. Either one will do, in addition to Ohio.

 

[Tim-E]

Very relevant with the storm a'comin.

Don't think this was posted, but...
Romney thinks FEMA should go, and money goes directly to states.

It's been reaffirmed by a Romney official.

I hope he gets absolutely destroyed for saying this. This is a catastrophically stupid thing to say; local and state officials are nowhere near as knowledgeable in how to handle these situations and leadership is typically a mess; with state governments, local governments, and nonprofits not being aware of their exact role in relief efforts. If the federal government is going to spend the money in helping with these situations it needs to provide oversight, as well.

Letting the state and local relief efforts just do whatever is one of the main reasons Katrina caused as much long-term damage as it did. If the federal government had stepped in earlier and led the situation there would've been fewer lives lost.

 

[The Librarian]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans.html

Just a tiny lil' bump of Hopium this morning. The article also mentions Colorado looking a bit less rosy, but the fundamentals of this race overall still look damn fine. Either one will do, in addition to Ohio.

I don't think you need to say Nevada will be an "addition" to Ohio. Bams is getting that state.

 

[B-Dubs]

I hope he gets absolutely destroyed for saying this. This is a catastrophically stupid thing to say; local and state officials are nowhere near as knowledgeable in how to handle these situations and leadership is typically a mess; with state governments, local governments, and nonprofits not being aware of their exact role in relief efforts. If the federal government is going to spend the money in helping with these situations it needs to provide oversight, as well.

Letting the state and local relief efforts just do whatever is one of the main reasons Katrina caused as much long-term damage as it did. If the federal government had stepped in earlier and led the situation there would've been fewer lives lost.

He should be sunk for this, but he won't be. It's a damn travesty you can have a political career after saying shit like this.

 

[phosphor112]

I hope he gets absolutely destroyed for saying this. This is a catastrophically stupid thing to say; local and state officials are nowhere near as knowledgeable in how to handle these situations and leadership is typically a mess; with state governments, local governments, and nonprofits not being aware of their exact role in relief efforts. If the federal government is going to spend the money in helping with these situations it needs to provide oversight, as well.

Letting the state and local relief efforts just do whatever is one of the main reasons Katrina caused as much long-term damage as it did. If the federal government had stepped in earlier and led the situation there would've been fewer lives lost.

New thread for this.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=43730729#post43730729

 

[Mike M]

Was talking to my brother last night about where WA state initiatives are polling at since I was having trouble finding data and he's still got contacts in Olympia from his policy advisor days.

Eyman's initiative renewing the super-majority requirement is sure to pass (I didn't need him to tell me this), but it may be rendered moot if the state supreme court upholds a ruling finding it unconstitutional. That may also be rendered moot as both McKenna and Inslee have pledged to veto any tax raises. It's a three-way clusterfuck.

He's not super optimistic about R74's chances of legalizing gay marriage either. If it gets approved, it's going to be close.

 

[Y2Kev]

I hope he gets absolutely destroyed for saying this. This is a catastrophically stupid thing to say; local and state officials are nowhere near as knowledgeable in how to handle these situations and leadership is typically a mess; with state governments, local governments, and nonprofits not being aware of their exact role in relief efforts. If the federal government is going to spend the money in helping with these situations it needs to provide oversight, as well.

Letting the state and local relief efforts just do whatever is one of the main reasons Katrina caused as much long-term damage as it did. If the federal government had stepped in earlier and led the situation there would've been fewer lives lost.

If you want to strike a deathblow, a reporter should ask Christie what he thinks.

 

[Tim-E]

I am probably more angry that Romney has said this more than anything he's said during this whole campaign. lsdfhdsjkfhsdjkfhsdjk

 

[Incognito]

i don't think saying you want FEMA privatized is out of bounds considering the federal response to Katrina in 2005. for a lot of conservatives the image of the poor and destitute suffering at the hands of big brother was just too much. i mean, if the government let a city drown i think it's natural to want to seek out alternatives so that kind of scenario never happens agian.

 

[Clevinger]

Not that there was any doubt, but politico does indeed have Obama up by 1 nationally

http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html

So Britt Hume was just lying out his ass about Romney being +5 in it?

 

[B-Dubs]

If you want to strike a deathblow, a reporter should ask Christie what he thinks.

Dear god this needs to happen. I really want this shit to happen. Sink both at once or watch Christie throw Romney's ass under the bus. Either way it would be golden.

i don't think saying you want FEMA privatized is out of bounds considering the federal response to Katrina in 2005. i mean, if the government let a city drown i think it's natural to want to seek out alternatives.

That happened because the government didn't get involved fast enough. Imagine not paying for your disaster insurance and a company refusing to rescue you. Shit would be fucked.

 

[HylianTom]

I don't think you need to say Nevada will be an "addition" to Ohio. Bams is getting that state.

Oh, but of course! It's a secret to everyone. (Well, everyone here.)

Having said this, I wonder how many folks will be genuinely shocked when Ohio is called early in the evening?

 

[isoquant]

Jesus, I wandered onto Brit Hume's twitter and saw this:

It's been 7 wks since Benghazi, & Obama is still promising to investigate. Compare: 9 wks after 9/11, we'd taken Kabul

(Not posted by him, but retweeted)

 

[Owzers]

Jesus, I wandered onto Brit Hume's twitter and saw this:



(Not posted by him, but retweeted)

That's one great tweet.

 

[Tim-E]

That happened because the government didn't get involved fast enough. Imagine not paying for your disaster insurance and a company refusing to rescue you. Shit would be fucked.

I almost seriously responded, but then I saw who posted it.

 

[B-Dubs]

Jesus, I wandered onto Brit Hume's twitter and saw this:



(Not posted by him, but retweeted)

They do realize that an investigation can take more than 44 minutes, this shit ain't Law & Order: SVU. What, do they want to go to war? That's what it sounds like. Goddamn morons.

I almost seriously responded, but then I saw who posted it.

Yea I feel bad for responding, but that's one I couldn't just let slide. I mean shit, I'm about to be hit by a hurricane!

 

[electricpirate]

So Britt Hume was just lying out his ass about Romney being +5 in it?

Breaking. Obama jumps +6 in Brit Hume's addled mind!

 

[ezrarh]

They do realize that an investigation can take more than 44 minutes, this shit ain't Law & Order: SVU. What, do they want to go to war? That's what it sounds like. Goddamn morons.

Doesn't matter if we have the right country or group. Just gotta go to war with somebody and blame it on them.

 

[Incognito]

Jesus, I wandered onto Brit Hume's twitter and saw this:



(Not posted by him, but retweeted)

heh. i actually responded to the author of that original tweet (freddeso) and he instantly replied back along with a slew of other batshit conservatives

 

[Father_Brain]

So Britt Hume was just lying out his ass about Romney being +5 in it?

Probably confusing the actual numbers with this analysis thereof:

In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.

Not sure which "reports from the field" they're referring to.

 

[Mike M]

That happened because the government didn't get involved fast enough. Imagine not paying for your disaster insurance and a company refusing to rescue you. Shit would be fucked.

Well, people supporting this sort of thing are the same people claiming the financial crisis was the result of too much regulation...

 

[Cloudy]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...on/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

This is quite possibly the best analysis I've seen this cycle and he's using numbers instead of anecdotes or gut instincts. He is a partisan but he doesn't let his views or campaign spin bleed into his work. Wish the rest of the political analysts could approach things this way

 

[B-Dubs]

Well, people supporting this sort of thing are the same people claiming the financial crisis was the result of too much regulation...

Yea...it's just in a better world you'd be sunk after this shit...it's just depressing. When we were little the assumption was the President was the smartest guy they could find, now we have dipshits like this running and doing well? It's just really sad.

 

[Gruco]

How likely is it that Sandy destroys all records of early voting, leaving Romney in a position to win with his advantage among election day voters?

 

[electricpirate]

It is. Neither Rasmussen or PPP call cellphones. They do weigh their polls though

That's what I thought. Gallup is IVR too right? But according to their website they include 400 cellphones in every sample. Do they live call cellphones?

That's been one thing that's confused me.

 

[gcubed]

How likely is it that Sandy destroys all records of early voting, leaving Romney in a position to win with his advantage among election day voters?

that would require the northeast to participate in early voting

 

[B-Dubs]

How likely is it that Sandy destroys all records of early voting, leaving Romney in a position to win with his advantage among election day voters?

Depends, is Sandy the name of Romney's personal secret strike team?

 

[Atilac]

How likely is it that Sandy destroys all records of early voting, leaving Romney in a position to win with his advantage among election day voters?

Not likely. They would have people vote again in a special election. Otherwise people would be super pissed.

 

[Gruco]

You guys just aren't taking this legitimate serious concern seriously enough.