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2013 April NBA |OT| Pipe Dreams

This season

Pau Gasol is averaging 13.7 PPG and 8.4 RPG on 46% shooting in 34 MPG.

Carlos Boozer AKA "Mr. I Just Had Sex with Your Wife" is averaging 16.2 PPG and 9.7 RPG on 48% shooting in 32 MPG.

I bet Carlos and his wife have really, really, really loud sex
 
Black Cloving

No one responds to cloving seriously. He did to me, though.

Not a high bar to climb, but climbed nonetheless

who are ya'll targeting in 2014?


6194_proxy_1_31.jpg
 

Zeus Molecules

illegal immigrants are stealing our air
Statistically, the Thunder were the 7th best regular season team of all time this year:

http://bkref.com/tiny/Nxud8

Have to wonder if they're somehow being slept on or underrated...


this 100% I said it before and I will say it again loyalty to brooks is going to cost you a few seasons of your teams prime....

Pat turns heel, gifts Bron to LA, retires in LA, sells his stake in The Heat and lets Miami return to how he found it.

Knowing Riley... I could see it happening
 
Miami is perfect for Riley. It's like living in LA, except that the local media is a bunch of softies so he doesn't have to deal with as much bullshit!
 

Zeus Molecules

illegal immigrants are stealing our air

Lakers should grab one of those bigs in this years draft who has a raw offensive game (and who isn't soft and let kareem train him, to put behind Dwight and then re-tool in 2014. A lot of people sleep on how important Gortat was behind Dwight. a one/two Center punch that can compensate for hack a dwight is far from a bad thing to retool/rebuild around....
 
Lakers should grab one of those bigs in this years draft who has a raw offensive game (and who isn't soft and let kareem train him, to put behind Dwight and then re-tool in 2014. A lot of people sleep on how important Gortat was behind Dwight. a one/two Center punch that can compensate for hack a dwight is far from a bad thing to retool/rebuild around....

With what draft picks?
 
Statistically, the Thunder were the 7th best regular season team of all time this year:

http://bkref.com/tiny/Nxud8

Have to wonder if they're somehow being slept on or underrated...

'09 Cleveland is 12th (was 11th prior). Not sure why you focus so much on this. OKC reminds me of that '09 team. Plays super hard every night while the rest of the NBA takes games off.

SRS has been proven to not be so great at this (especially compared to other rankings). Yes, the all-time great teams will be at the top of the list, but this should be fairly obvious why. The problem is once you get past those teams and it's why you have some clunkers in there.

Should also be noted KD and YNB have not missed a game in forever. And Ibaka doesn't miss games, either. Their team plays hard AND doesn't get hurt (at least the players that matter). That's what is driving this. If Miami wanted to put up a 10+ SRS they could have.
 
SRS leader wins the title just over half the time.

That's a significant number.

No, not really.

Also, since 2000 I've only found 4 SRS leaders win the title. 2000 Lakers, '05 Spurs, '07 Spurs, '08, Celtics.

Chances are things changed after the NBA expanded + rule changes and SRS became less reliable.
 

thekad

Banned
No, not really.

Also, since 2000 I've only found 4 SRS leaders win the title. 2000 Lakers, '05 Spurs, '07 Spurs, '08, Celtics.

Chances are things changed after the NBA expanded + rule changes and SRS became less reliable.
Uh, no. Chances are the league leader in SRS will win the title just over half the time.

The fact that it's happened only 33% of the time over a smaller sample doesn't negate that.
 

DominoKid

Member
i always wonder why kobe starts tweeting at like 4am, like this dude is having an existential crisis in the middle of the night or something.

then i realize it's 1am over there lol.
 
Uh, no. Chances are the league leader in SRS will win the title just over half the time.

The fact that it's happened only 33% of the time over a smaller sample doesn't negate that.

You do realize the sample is already too small to begin with, right? At least if we're counting only something that remotely resembled the current NBA.

And the variables are not controlled.

And SRS leader winning roughly half the time isn't very useful. If it was 85% or something, sure, but 50% pretty much leaves us nowhere better than what already know.

edit: To make matters worse, outside the top 5 SRS winning it all isn't uncommon. 3 alone since '06, more if we go back a ways. This shouldn't be happening if SRS was a good predictor, they should be outliers. 50% success is a terrible number. If SRS was any good, it would predict outcomes at least 75% of the time (and I'm being generous) and it's why most other recent models have been better predictors.

Saying "the team with the best SRS has a 50% odds to win" is useless. By the end of the season, we can already tell which team has at least a 50% chance to win without SRS. We need something that has actual predictive value worth something. We already know OKC and Miami have the best odds of making it out. Show me a model that saw 2011 Mavs or '06 Miami or a model that didn't believe in the '09 Cavs.
 
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