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2013 April NBA |OT| Pipe Dreams

Emwitus

Member
5 guys delivered the pizza. I've never heard of that. Sounds like they all wanted to see MJ, which means they knew.

So you're saying Grover is lying?

.
Tonight, I root for Utar.

I feel dirty.

In before snarky but lame Jeff comment

If there is any chance, and i mean ANY, you guys don't face okc or spurs, wouldn't you take it? Then why pick them utaz? Huh? Take one for the team man.
 

Vahagn

Member
I don't disagree- but I'm always wary of trusting my eyes if there are numbers that don't support my position.


This sounds an awful like "I can't make decisions for myself unless Hollinger tells me I'm right". Also, it's statistics, there are always numbers to support almost any position. It's called cherry picking stats to support a position and ignoring others that go against it.


On a related note lol at some stat that predicts a champion 50% of the time and only about a third of the time since the turn of the century. Considering that whole thing is taken at the end of the regular season. You can, almost without fail figure out the two most likely teams to win a chip with just the eye test almost all the time and flip a coin and get the same 35-50% range.


This year OKC/Miami
12 - Miami/OKC
11- Spurs/Miami (this would be wrong, no one saw Dallas coming, not even SRS)
10 - LA/CLE
09- LA/CLE
08 - BOS/LA


Etc. my thoughts At the end of the regular season have been right for every year except 2011 and 2006 going back a while.
 
Vag, if a scientist had a very good theory that made sense and seemed to work, but some of the numbers from the tests suggested that the theory could be false, should they have total confidence in their theory still?
 
Vag, if a scientist had a very good theory that made sense and seemed to work, but some of the numbers from the tests suggested that the theory could be false, should they have total confidence in their theory still?

Vag would.

I totally support OKC beating Miami in the finals if it causes infighting and Bron to opt out and come to LA.
 
infighting?

that ship has sailed

That team would have blown the fuck up if they failed in the finals last year and this year as well, but they chipped so its whatever now.
 
infighting?

that ship has sailed

That team would have blown the fuck up if they failed in the finals last year and this year as well, but they chipped so its whatever now.

The situations are very different. They had room to improve when Dallas whooped their asses, but if they get beat by a still improving OKC team while at what could very well be the peak for that Miami roster....

Bron leaving Miami is a dumb idea, but I think it becomes less dumb if they lose this year, Wade gets older and they lose next year. It's essentially a fantasy tho.
 

diehard

Fleer
Yes it can. I'm not buying into the Thunder completely because of their SRS. It's just at such a high level that it makes wonder about how good they are.

You can use it as an excuse for not wanting to play them in the playoffs when the Jazz either fail on their own, or the league makes them fail to get in.
 

thekad

Banned
Weird how ESPN ended up with the only two games that matter.

15241869377249871302


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5 guys delivered the pizza. I've never heard of that. Sounds like they all wanted to see MJ, which means they knew.

So you're saying Grover is lying?

Well, he IS selling a book, so I don't know about 'lying' but as you know after a lot of years stories can be exaggerated or bent out of shape a little.

I mean, if Grover is telling the truth, and if MJ indeed was the only one who got sick from eating it---don't you think a giant ruckus would have been raised about it earlier? I would think the Bulls organization would do everything they could do burn that pizza business down if that's what they suspected. Kobe's food poisoning news didn't come out that much later IIRC.
 

diehard

Fleer
.


If there is any chance, and i mean ANY, you guys don't face okc or spurs, wouldn't you take it? Then why pick them utaz? Huh? Take one for the team man.
This post makes no sense.

wait.. do you think the Lakers have a better chance of beating OKC or SA than the the Jazz do?

lol
 
Yes it can. I'm not buying into the Thunder completely because of their SRS. It's just at such a high level that it makes wonder about how good they are.

Same with the '09 Cavs. Instead, we should probably wonder why their SRS is so high and why it overrated them.

For example, of the top 20 SRS teams, OKC has the toughest SOS. Is too much emphasis on SOS? Have they simply been destroying very bad teams? Have they been uncharacteristically healthy? etc.

I've always believed SRS didn't separate out "quality wins" as I'd call it (or MOV for quality teams).

For example, OKC is 11-11 versus the top 10 teams according to point differential.
Miami, on the other hand, is 14-6.
Spurs are 13-8

I wish I had PD numbers for those but I don't. I think that OKC pushes their PD up against shitty and below average teams, much like the '09 Cavs did (which had only 2 losses to bottom 10, like OKC's 3 and just 1 game better than Orl and worse than LAL at top 10).

I believe great health + playing harder than everyone else is the reason, the same reason for those '09 Cavs, helped along by a super tough SoS.

edit: The above numbers are almost a month old, damn it. 82games hasn't updated in forever, wtf.

Weird how ESPN ended up with the only two games that matter.

They're allowed to shift what games they air around a bit.
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Abbott said:
All true. And precisely why Hollinger developed a measure called Value Added. This is where you basically take a player's PER and then multiply all that by minutes played.

You can probably see the punchline coming. With fewer than two-thirds of Lillard's time on the court, with a measure that most experts say would favor Lillard's game to his own, Davis still has the better total Value Added on the season. And it's not all that close -- Davis is 35th in the league, Lillard 46th.

Strauss said:
On account of his stellar play after the All-Star break, AD has zoomed past Lillard in Value Added (283.5 to 250.0), a PER-derived stat that compares a player's total value against what a replacement would provide.

JJ Hickson, according to Value Added, is better than:

Kyrie, Conley, Millsap, Josh Smith, Ibaka, Noah, Vucevic, George, Pekovic, Chandler, Garnett, Lawson, Faried

There you go. Advanced stat say JJ Hickson is a Top 25 player.
 

zychi

Banned
Same with the '09 Cavs. Instead, we should probably wonder why their SRS is so high and why it overrated them.
They're allowed to shift what games they air around a bit.
Yeah they did this for miamis streak too and got stuck with a miami v charlotte game that sucked.

How do they calculate the scoring title? Points over 82 games, or points over games played? I feel like melo sitting so much should have benefitted kd
 
Yeah they did this for miamis streak too and got stuck with a miami v charlotte game that sucked.

How do they calculate the scoring title? Points over 82 games, or points over games played? I feel like melo sitting so much should have benefitted kd

points over games played, with a minimum minute threshold to qualify (don't know what it is)
 

diehard

Fleer
JJ Hickson, according to Value Added, is better than:

Kyrie, Conley, Millsap, Josh Smith, Ibaka, Noah, Vucevic, George, Pekovic, Chandler, Garnett, Lawson, Faried

There you go. Advanced stat say JJ Hickson is a Top 25 player.

That thing must really like rebounds and sub-par defense.
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Yes. Dwight howard alone is a bigger advantage than anything utah can give.

....... Utah's huge advantage and what got them this far is their crazy ass good front-court. Put the pipe down son.
 

Emwitus

Member
....... Utah's huge advantage and what got them this far is their crazy ass good front-court. Put the pipe down son.

And i'm telling you dwight howard is the bigger advantage. I can't even believe we are arguing this...lol Utah are utter trash and shouldn't even be anywhere near the 8th seed. They are just one year removed from that embarrassing sweep. Crazy ass good..hahahaha
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
And i'm telling you dwight howard is the bigger advantage. I can't even believe we are arguing this...lol Utah are utter trash and shouldn't even be anywhere near the 8th seed. They are just one year removed from that embarrassing sweep. Crazy ass good..hahahaha

oh you

Dwight isn't even as good as Jeremy Evans.
 

giri

Member
And i'm telling you dwight howard is the bigger advantage. I can't even believe we are arguing this...lol Utah are utter trash and shouldn't even be anywhere near the 8th seed. They are just one year removed from that embarrassing sweep. Crazy ass good..hahahaha

Wait, didn't the lakers get swept last year?
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Is this the time of the year that I argue that Greg Oden should've won ROTY over Derrick Rose?
 

1871

Member
And i'm telling you dwight howard is the bigger advantage. I can't even believe we are arguing this...lol Utah are utter trash and shouldn't even be anywhere near the 8th seed. They are just one year removed from that embarrassing sweep. Crazy ass good..hahahaha

This is not a matter of opinion, dimwit. It's about facts. Fact one, Utah and Los Angeles are virtually tied. Fact two, Dwight had Kobe. You can argue about what ifs, but when it comes to the very real outcome of the 2012 - 2013 season coming to a close, you are inclined to shut it.
 

Emwitus

Member
This is not a matter of opinion, dimwit. It's about facts. Fact one, Utah and Los Angeles are virtually tied. Fact two, Dwight had Kobe. You can argue about what ifs, but when it comes to the very real outcome of the 2012 - 2013 season coming to a close, you are inclined to shut it.

Dwight howard being a bigger advantage than utah's mo and hayward isn't a matter of opinion rookie. Go sit in the corner and wait for that celtic pipe. It'll almost be as bad as going into a retirement home and getting mugged. Thank goodness our playoff dreams aren't resting on honey nut cheerios.
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Oden in '09: 4.6WS, .167 WS/48, 116ORtg, 104DRtg, 18.1PER, 19.3USG%, 2.0DWS

Rose in '09: 4.9WS, .078 WS/48, 108ORtg, 113DRtg, 16PER, 22.6USG%, 1.5DWS

Clearly, Oden was robbed.
 

Emwitus

Member
Oh. Ok.

I still don't get your point.

The jazz front court is why they're in this at all. The Lakers back court are why they're in this at all.

My point is that we have a slightly better chance over utah when it comes to both teams because of dwight. His the only guy on both teams that can alter a series. We are obviously going to get swept but atleast theres a chance.
 
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