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Analysis: Poor turnout not responsible for Trump's victory.

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entremet

entremet

Member
In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout.

Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected.

To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was mainly among black voters. Even there, the scale of Democratic weakness has been exaggerated.

Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.

This analysis compares official voter files — data not available until months after the election — with The Upshot’s pre-election turnout projections in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The turnout patterns evident in these states are representative of broader trends throughout the battleground states and nationwide.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/...prod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share

Cool stats at the link.
 
S

SolarPowered

Member
Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.
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That right there is disastrous.
 
C

CrocMother

Banned
Br00TCn.gif
 
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tbm24

Member
Not even remotely surprising. All the GOP had to do was appeal to overt racism and the WH is yours. Mitt had it all wrong doing it behind the scenes.
 
C

chaosblade

Unconfirmed Member
The Exploder said:
It still blows my mind that there are people that voted for both Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
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Politicians are all 100% liars and elections don't have consequences. One guy (or woman) is the same as the next, they just have a different letter by their name.

- Shit load of American voters
 
K

Knuckle Sandwich

Member
All the third party folks can fuck off.

People who went to Trump from Obama... It's... I don't even know. Social issues are the main thing for me so I can't really understand those people.
 
B

BlueTsunami

there is joy in sucking dick
tbm24 said:
Not even remotely surprising. All the GOP had to do was appeal to overt racism and the WH is yours. Mitt had it all wrong doing it behind the scenes.
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This article states that the edge came from Democrats who voted for Obama. Racism may have energized the typical GOP base but those former Obama voters, Hillary couldnt hold on to them.
 
V

Vincent Alexander

Member
There are too many things combined that led to Trump victory to point to one thing. And saying these people migrated...yeah. But as already asked---why?
 
T

tbm24

Member
BlueTsunami said:
This article states that the edge came from Democrats who voted for Obama. Racism may have energized the typical GOP base but those Obama voters, Hillary couldnt hold on to them.
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I'm aware, that's why I said all the GOP and Mitt had to do was appeal to overt racism. Hillary couldn't hold on to them because Trump appealed to them in the way they clearly have been waiting for and Mitt didn't do, which was racism and bigotry.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.
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In a way, this actually seems worse.
 
entremet

entremet

Member
Alligatorjandro said:
Why did white people do this?
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White People kept it competitive!

From the article:
The increase in white turnout was broad, including among young voters, Democrats, Republicans, unaffiliated voters, urban, rural, and the likeliest supporters of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump. The greatest increases were among young and unaffiliated white voters.

For this reason alone, it’s hard to argue that turnout was responsible for the preponderance of Mr. Trump’s gains among white voters. The turnout among young and white Democratic voters was quite strong.

But the turnout was generally stronger among the likeliest white Trump supporters than among the likeliest white Clinton supporters.
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A

akira28

Member
Miles X said:
There are a lot of white people that voted for Hillary too you know, not all white americans are dumb as fuck!
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but more...most.


is there a new new minority in America?


and even with voter suppression greater than it has been in 3 decades, the black vote was only 1% down...compared to the year when the actual candidae was black. yet I could if I gave a damn go find a list of articles attributing Trump's victory at least in part to lower black voter turnout.
 
C

chaosblade

Unconfirmed Member
tbm24 said:
I'm aware, that's why I said all the GOP and Mitt had to do was appeal to overt racism. Hillary couldn't hold on to them because Trump appealed to them in the way they clearly have been waiting for and Mitt didn't do, which was racism and bigotry.
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I think the question there is, why did those people waiting for a blatantly racist candidate vote for the black guy in the last (two?) elections?
 
M

MIMIC

Banned
Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.
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Well, they had to come from somewhere.
 
B

BlueTsunami

there is joy in sucking dick
tbm24 said:
I'm aware, that's why I said all the GOP and Mitt had to do was appeal to overt racism. Hillary couldn't hold on to them because Trump appealed to them in the way they clearly have been waiting for and Mitt didn't do, which was racism and bigotry.
Click to expand...

Wait what, a large voter block of democrat voters who helped vote in the first black president twice were really racists waiting for a racist ideologue? I'd say Trumps working class promises drew them in versus Hillary's bone dry pragmatism. She couldn't energize her own base.
 
G

Gentleman Jack

Member
Schuylkill County, Pa. is mentioned by name, so I did some quick googling.

Blight - check
Opioid abuse - check
Old Coal town - check
Unhappy with Obamacare - check
Although...
About 40 percent of Schuylkill County's Affordable Care Act enrollees are 55 or older, more than 10 points higher than the national average. A 60-year-old making $30,000 annually here will pay roughly $8,750 more per year for coverage under the Republican plan moving through Congress, according to the AP analysis.
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So as much as we want to blame them just for being white and old, these are all of the chords that Trump clearly hit better than Hillary did during the campaign. So watching these voters swing, even if in previous elections they would have voted democratic thanks to the Dem's better engagement with them during Obama's term, pretty much fits with the 'they were left behind' explanation of the shift in the voter rolls.

I don't wish to underplay the effect 'blame immigrants, mexico, etc' on frustrated white ears, but this is a model county for the DNC to study and strategize about from now, to the midterms, and forever, because clearly they fucking sucked at getting these votes last Nov.
 
C

CrocMother

Banned
MIMIC said:
Well, they had to come from somewhere.
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I know this will stir up a lot of shit, but I can't help but wonder how many of those would have voted for Bernie vs Trump.

Speaking of which, nobody has mentioned perhaps the most important reason why people switched. SEXISM.
 
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