So now that the merger between Sprint and SoftBank has closed I'm free to talk about the plans that I have heard in the City. It should be noted that everything after this is rumour and speculation, so most likely bullshit from coked up traders.
First, SoftBank plan to transition Sprint from CDMA to GSM by the end of 2015, the first changes will start in early 2014 according to the chatter. People with CDMA devices will be offered free GSM ones with a three year commitment. Son wants to offer Japanese style phones like Arrows and Aquos (Fujitsu and Sharp) in the US on SoftBank as an exclusive. Some of the plans also sound decent - $50/m for 500 minutes, 2.5GB LTE and unlimited sms, bring your own device, 24 month minimum commitment.
Son also plans to invest $12-15bn over the next 4 years in the Sprint network using profits from SoftBank (conversion to GSM and LTE network investment) and will tie the iPhone carriage on Sprint to their Japanese carrier which will effectively end any forced purchasing commitment Apple might put Sprint under after the current deal finishes.
By the end of 2020 Son wants SoftBank to be the number one US carrier and is looking to invest on that basis and be very aggressive in achieving that. He believes the key is to offer attractive phones from Japanese and international companies at a low upfront cost without an expensive contract and keep consumer tied in for a long period of time.
Finally, Son will eventually assume the role of general manager of Sprint and the name will be changed to SoftBank but not for a while. Son sees Sprint as a key stepping stone on the way to global leadership of the mobile carrier market because the US is the biggest single open market in terms of revenue and second largest in terms of subscriber figures.
In other rumours related to the US carrier market, Verizon are said to be preparing a $135bn all cash bid for Vodafone's share of VZW and Vodafone are talking about using the money plus another $100bn to buy AT&T which would be more than 10% over the current market cap. Stupid since AT&T tried to force Vodafone to buy them for less than half that back in 2004. The industry people say Vodafone are not interested in the fixed line business, but would be willing to hold onto it to see how internet TV shakes out. They bought Kabel Deutschland recently to offer multi-pay services in Germany and they are talking about another possible consumer push for broadband and phone in the UK as well so they have form there.
IMO with SoftBank entering the US market there is a lot of possibility for a huge shakeup with the old guard being swept aside. AT&T might go for a deal where they can cash out if things start looking dodgy with an aggressive player like Son pushing down margins. An international player like Vodafone would be better suited to deal with a lower margin business than a single country player like AT&T.
The 2017 US carrier line up could be:
Verizon Comuncations (US)
Vodafone (UK)
SoftBank (JPN)
T-Mobile (DE)