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April 2013 NPD Sales Results [Up3: Xbox 360 Top Platform, NSMBU LTD, Lego 3DS, Luigi]

yon61

Member
Vita will post awfull numbers like this till September - after that it should find it's place as niche device occupying part of PS4 shelves as accesorry in shops (together with price drop, hopefully cheaper memory and some game releases)

Wii U seems to be dead - it will get some sort of short term boost after big Nintendo hitters are released but like 3DS it won't be lasting effect since it will affect mostly a still undecided part of Nintendo faithfull.

3DS pricedrop honeymoon is over - we will see if they drop prices alongside Pokemon release to reivigorate sales or if they keep prices to improve profits.

Not going to happen. If people aren't buying it now, the retailers aren't going to stand for that.
 

Blearth

Banned
So what is the hope for Vita now? People buy PS4 and then lay down another $200 for remote play. Good luck with that!!

Remote play looked laggy as shit when they showed it (just like PSP-PS3 remote play). I don't think anyone buying a Vita for remote play is going to be happy with their purchase.
 

Saty

Member
UK is the biggest market in eu but it's not the majority, "all the other territories" make up a market as big as the US.

Umm..i don't think that was ever the case in most video game releases. NA and UK end up being the bulk of sales for retail. Let's say TR did 1.5M by the end of April in US and UK - i really really doubt rest of the world amassed to anywhere close to the remaining 2M retail copies.
 

Valkyria

Banned
Umm..i don't think that was ever the case in most video game releases. NA and UK end up being the bulk of sales for retail. Let's say TR did 1.5M by the end of April in US and UK - i really really doubt rest of the world amassed to anywhere close to the remaining 2M retail copies.

GT5 sold 5 million in Europe, 50%. Think twice before belittling such a big market.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Sony Computer Entertainment published 5 games in the US in the first 6 months of the PS3's release.

Resistance: Fall of Man
Genji: Days of Blade
Motorstorm
NBA 07
Formula One Championship Edition

These were clearly the difference makers. Clearly a system with a Mario title is at severe disadvantage in such comparison.

Oh, by the way, the system was $599. That must have helped a lot.

Or we can stop pretending that first-party output is the sole problem at play.

Certainly, and I'm sure Sony, Microsoft and third party publishers will watch intently to see if both this hardware trend and the software trend reverse course with the release of new systems. The point, however, is that the Wii U is really no indication of a contracting market, it's a fundamentally different product from what Sony and Microsoft intend with their successor systems.

The Wii U is what happens when you produce a 360 near-equivalent in 2012 and try to sell it at a premium because of a controller nobody cares about.

When I say there's "no market" for the platform, it's exaggerated sure (there's even a market for Vita, as small as it may be) and what I really mean, but may not have presented fantastically is that Nintendo have seemingly released a product without basic market validation.

There's a gulf of difference between the GameCube and the Wii; while comments don't necessarily imply Wii-like sales (I don't think anyone reasonable expects that now) people's comments do not generally imply they foresee this system selling around GameCube levels, despite that GameCube levels would actually be a substantial improvement.

Looking at past "turnarounds" for systems, I don't think there's one that one can point to where the baseline sales tripled or quadrupled, and that's what the system needs to do to match prior last place systems. I don't think there's one that one can even point to where sales doubled. In terms of what precipitated these turnarounds, the lever was largely price - but the Wii U is not actually particularly expensive. The only example perhaps is the NDS, but that was essentially precipitated by catching lightning-in-a-bottle, and I maintain that to expect such is folly.

I currently see potentially sub-GameCube sales, but for a longer generation, resulting in a GameCube like total. I'm open to being wrong or changing this view when something

Great posts in this topic, been reading them with some interest. Sometimes people just don't want to hear the cold hard truth. Nobody on God's green Earth gives one half of a shit about the touchpad (hyperbole for effect, obviously: marc^o^ cares about it a lot!), which is really just the DS dual screen concept stretched out for a console without any of the benefits of a genuine handheld system, being tethered to the comically limited range of the Wii U. And that's what it comes down to, doesn't it? The touchpad made pricing strategics difficult for Nintendo, because Wii U is being sold at a slight loss already. And so the fact that nobody cared about it become a huge blunder... now they have a price anchor weighing them down on top of having no games. And what, Game & Wario going to change the systems fate? Pikmin? Smash Bros.? Mario Kart? Mario 3D? There's another system that had Pikmin, Smash Bros., Mario Kart and Mario 3D AND Zelda... it was called Gamecube. Now I loved that system, and Nintendo scratched out a profit on it, but I think everyone would say such a machine is a change of fate that Nintendo would not find acceptable.
 

Saty

Member
GT5 sold 5 million in Europe, 50%. Think twice before belittling such a big market.

Yes. GT5, Forza and generally racing games do better in Europe. For your typical AAA game that's not the case, especially when you expect 'rest of the world' to do half or more of the total sales.
 
E3 will be very telling, regarding what Sony plans to do with the Vita. A <$200 memory cardless revision is a must this year if they are really serious about it.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Unless something seriously changed with hardware ASPs (and it's possible!) you can bump my 3DS estimate up over the PS3 and drop the PS3 by a couple and the figures still hold.
So just switch the numbers?

creamsugar, please give some sort of range for DS!

P.S. I miss the graphs. :(
 
His pattern would most likely point to Injustice, since it would be one of the game main games Warner and other third parties would be using to gauge if they should release Wii U versions of their multiplatform games.

Well if they use this as a measure then I hope Wii U owners REALLY like Nintendo games.

Still no Injustice numbers. Would be nice to have as a baseline for software numbers.
 
Hmmm by June/July Nintendo should cut the price of the Wii U by $50-75 and give early adopters a free download code for one first party game. Then bundle the hell out of it with another download code when Mario Kart comes out. Nintendo will most likely lose money with this but they need to sell more consoles so they can earn profits from their software.

On the other hand, the 3DS needs to be pushed hard. Cut the price by $30 before Pokemon X/Y comes out and give us more colors especially the limited edition ones.

I originally predicted the Wii U to sell around 50 million... but I'm gonna lower that to 25-30 million. I'm gonna stick with the my original 3DS prediction at 100 million.
 

QaaQer

Member
At least there wont be an attempt no. 3. After this generation there isn't going to be a portable market worth pursuing.

Which is why I don't get the glee at Vita's failure. How can people who like games be happy that there will be fewer dedicated game platforms in the future? Sony isn't going to fund expensive risky games as a 3rd party in the portable space. Of course, the same question can be asked of those that are happy about Wii U failing. Nintendo as a third party would mean fewer games.
 

QaaQer

Member
The (optimistic) 5M PSP/Vita worldwide forecast suggests that's more or less their plan. Release the games they have lined up for the rest of the FY, don't make any major push for them, let them sell what they're going to sell, and then speak no more about it.

I'm sure that various people at SCEA, SCEE, and SCEJA would assert otherwise, but I don't really see what else they can possibly do at this point.

The last push for vita will be as PS4 peripheral. IDK for sure what the market for something like that might be though, maybe 10-20 million over the course of the console's life?
 
I'm not sure why anyone thinks that Vita can survive as a peripheral to the PS4; it's $250, and the PS4 itself is likely be around $400 I'm guessing.

I wonder if Injustice has Warner questioning Arkham Origins; or whether currently announced projects are so far along that they may as well complete and release them regardless of knowing how poor the sales will be.
 
Hmmm by June/July Nintendo should cut the price of the Wii U by $50-75 and give early adopters a free download code for one first party game. Then bundle the hell out of it with another download code when Mario Kart comes out. Nintendo will most likely lose money with this but they need to sell more consoles so they can earn profits from their software.

Just like in Vita case it won't help without software. Basic was as low as 150 pounds/200 euros in various places in EU and that hardly helped
 

Toski

Member
I'm not sure why anyone thinks that Vita can survive as a peripheral to the PS4; it's $250, and the PS4 itself is likely be around $400 I'm guessing.

I wonder if Injustice has Warner questioning Arkham Origins; or whether currently announced projects are so far along that they may as well complete and release them regardless of knowing how poor the sales will be.

I think people are waiting for PS4/Durango to drop to start spending money again. Any game that comes out before those two release will see the tepid results we see now, this includes TLoU which I think will do Bioshock numbers.
 
Just like in Vita case it won't help without software. Basic was as low as 150 pounds/200 euros in various places in EU and that hardly helped

I don't now Europe's situation and video game buying tendencies very well, but I pointed to June/July because thats when the hypothetical "relaunch" is suppose to commence. More games will actually be dropping on a month to month basis compared to now. So that will make it the best opportunity for the Wii U to build any type of momentum heading into the war zoned holidays. Not saying it will work but its probably their best bet.
 
I don't now Europe's situation and video game buying tendencies very well, but I pointed to June/July because thats when the hypothetical "relaunch" is suppose to commence. More games will actually be dropping on a month to month basis compared to now. So that will make it the best opportunity for the Wii U to build any type of momentum heading into the war zoned holidays. Not saying it will work but its probably their best bet.

That still would be waste of price cut - why do this with Pikmin and in traditionally slow summer months when you can suffer two more months and do this with zelda remake and 3D mario in much more busy period of year.
 
The last push for vita will be as PS4 peripheral. IDK for sure what the market for something like that might be though, maybe 10-20 million over the course of the console's life?

I know it's not exactly the same thing, but there has not been any precedence for handheld/console connectivity boding well for the struggling counterpart. It didn't do much for GC with GBA connectivity, for example. Unless it's accompanied with a massive Vita price drop, then you can't charge that much for so little value proposition.
 
Mother of God!!!

Nintendo in catch 22. I'm pretty sure they want to release specific games when WiiU sales hit a milestone. This is the only explanation for pushing back their games...

Seems pretty obvious that Nintendo is keen to re-launch Wii and that's the reason behind the unexplained delays of Pikmin 3, TW101 - and Ubisoft's Rayman Legends (it could have debuted on Wii U first).

They could have a solid line-up from September onwards, so it looks like they're saving their big marketing push for then.

So, the big question is will the inevitable relaunch work? Can Nintendo turn things around with Wii U? Well they obviously haven't been able to convince EA that they can.
 
That still would be waste of price cut - why do this with Pikmin and in traditionally slow summer months when you can suffer two more months and do this with zelda remake and 3D mario in much more busy period of year.

Well they have to position the price cut carefully. I see two options: one they price cut early this summer to give them a few extra months, but miss out on the influential 3D Mario spark, or they price cut later when they have heavy hitters like you said, but have to compete with GTAV, COD Ghosts, and the growing next-gen anticipation. I guess they have to choose their own poison with neither looking all that great. Christmas does tend to favor Nintendo though I think.
 

CrunchinJelly

formerly cjelly
WiiU > SS, of course.
Vita < 20k
Welp.

hbkdealwithit5bltm.gif
 
Soul Hackers at least didn't tank...I think. Soul Sacrifice sort of did alright too, all things considered.

Still can't shake off how depressing the market looks now. PS4/Durango need to come out to shake things up.
 

QaaQer

Member
So, the big question is will the inevitable relaunch work? Can Nintendo turn things around with Wii U? Well they obviously haven't been able to convince EA that they can.

The market is going to be very crowded and very noisy in the fall, so I'm really interested to see Ninty's strategy.

So called family products are actually products for children, and I think that selling the wii u as a family gadget is the only sensible angle Nintendo can pursue. The most successful family products are those that also have real appeal to adults, that is why Pixar movies pre-Disney buyout were so successful, and the same with the wii. Nintendo won't have any problem showing the world kids having fun with the Wii U and why parents should buy it for their kids. But how are they going to make it appealing to non-core adults?

They are trying to do that with the new family ads. The problem is, while having fun with kids is one of life's great pleasures, you don't need a wii u for that. So what is the appeal to adults who aren't already gamers with the wii u? How can they cast the Wii U as Finding Nemo and not Spy Kids 3D?
 

1-D_FTW

Member
The 360 dropped from 261k to 130K; that's not contracting, that's collapsing. The long-in-the-tooth argument should see much slower declines than that.

I think the Wii U will do better when it has more than one (real) Nintendo franchise, although I don't know how they are going to get the 40-60 million I had originally thought they would. I still think the Wii U represents a failure of marketing more than anything. At this point, you have to wonder how they even sold 37K; presumably the Nintendo core bought it already or are waiting for more games.

Nintendo fans with birthdays. I'm sure that's the vast majority of your 37k.
 
The 360 dropped from 261k to 130K; that's not contracting, that's collapsing. The long-in-the-tooth argument should see much slower declines than that.

I think the Wii U will do better when it has more than one (real) Nintendo franchise, although I don't know how they are going to get the 40-60 million I had originally thought they would. I still think the Wii U represents a failure of marketing more than anything. At this point, you have to wonder how they even sold 37K; presumably the Nintendo core bought it already or are waiting for more games.

Nintendo Fans will buy any Nintendo console. I'm a great example. I'd buy a pet-rock if Nintendo made it.
 
Sony and MS, the time is now for price drops on your aging hardware. The market has spoken.

Nintendo... I just don't know what to say anymore. It's been a complete disaster on every level. Games, marketing, 3rd party support, pricing, image. Aye, aye, aye. Just terrible. No one could have seen or predicted this bad of an after launch. And it's BAD! ~35k units in a month not only beats their previous worst a couple of months back (which was already the worst selling mainline console ever in this time) but it completely slashes it takes it to a whole new level of bad. It was just horrendous planning from Nintendo and they didn't have a back-up plan because they expected it to take off again just like the Wii. Now they are getting burned and a major 3rd party has now completely abandoned ship.

In 4 months the WiiU looks to have sold way less than 1 million WW (just over 500k in the US and JP, so maybe 750k tops for WW?). The machine just has little to no desirability outside of the faithful. I just don't know what Nintendo were thinking. Or how they can realistically turn the ship around. Yes the big hitters are still to come but so is the two pronged assault coming from Sony and MS, which are more so going to make the WiiU look old hat and they will have games that people know and love from everyone other than Nintendo.

Nintendo needs to pluck a new gimmick out of thin air for the WiiU to actually start selling in decent numbers every month. Only this time I don't think they can.
 
Yes that's correct, the last 4 months of data we have of actual units sold. I was talking about after launch sales.
~650K is more likely. Around 500K for US+JPN as you said. Europe for the first three months of the year was ~120K. Probably another 25K or so from April, maybe less, considering Europe seems to have taken to the system even less than the other two regions. There's other countries outside these general territories though I suppose, 700K is likely a maximum.
 
Yes that's correct, the last 4 months of data we have of actual units sold. I was talking about after launch sales.

Why pick an arbitrary timeframe to represent the entire situation?

And goddamn, PS3 sales are shitty.

Sony better hope PS4 launches with a bang or else it's another $4 Billion in the hole for them.
 
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