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Circana April 2024: #1 Stellar Blade #4 Sea of Thieves #5 Fallout 4 #8 Fallout 76; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, Switch #2 Units Xbox #2 Rev

James Sawyer Ford

Gold Member
So year over revenue declined between 30 to 35% for all platforms and the much cheaper price of the PS5 versus last year (discounted all month) also needs to be noted, here are the unit estimates by Welfare from InstallBase.

April 2024

PS5: 250K
NSW: 140K
XBS: 105K

Estimations for 2024

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-24425,000210,000250,000
Feb-24410,000195,000220,000
Mar-24525,000205,000235,000
Apr -24250,000105,000140,000
LTD20,290,00014,265,00045,025,000
Total-241,610,000715,000845,000
Full Estimations for 2023

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-23430,000200,000280,000
Feb-23560,000240,000290,000
Mar-23660,000280,000340,000
Apr-23340,000170,000420,000
May-23270,000160,000450,000
Jun-23430,000240,000350,000
Jul-23270,000160,000240,000
Aug-23400,000210,000200,000
Sep-23480,000300,000200,000
Oct -23360,000200,000210,000
Nov - 231,050,000580,000560,000
Dec - 231,520,0001,110,0001,230,000
20236,780,0003,850,0004,770,000
LTD18,680,00013,550,00044,180,000

PS5 was discounted?
 

Sub_Level

wants to fuck an Asian grill.
Fallout 4 and Fallout 76 are going to be so many peoples’ first experience of the franchise.

The Office Smile GIF


At least it only goes up from there.
 

Thick Thighs Save Lives

NeoGAF's Physical Games Advocate Extraordinaire


Based on this info Welfare now estimates the following HW sales:

PS5: 250K
NSW: 140K
XBS: 105K

Gonna edit the OP and add them in.

For reference, here are the April 2017 NPD numbers:

PS4: 206k
XBO: 110k
NSW: 280k

PS5 continues to outperform PS4 in the US, while XBS is holding up well compared to XBO (just ~5k units below). And as for the Switch, well, we all know what's happening there. :p
 

leo-j

Member
switch is finally really slowing down, i know nintendo is pushing for a next year release for switch 2 to take that best selling video game console crown from playstation, but seeing as it is probably around 140-141 million, and knowing how nintendo hardware tends to drop like a rock, It may cap out around 150 million.
 

MikeM

Gold Member
Sony... I get you are still #1.... but drop the damn price of the PS5.

And PS Portal continues to forever be a representation of why you do not listen to game media and how out of touch they are from the actual people spending their money.
Sony is all about getting thicc margins now. I’d say price drops are never gonna happen except for rare occurrences.
 

tkscz

Member
What was that about Portal not selling well/flop? (Yes I know it's an expensive accessory, but still)
In dollar sales. With it being $200, that makes sense that it would be making more money than any other accessory. If the PS5 controller at $70 sold 10,000 units in April, the Portal could sell 4,000 units and still make $100k more than the 10,000 controllers. This doesn't mean it's successful or failed, we'd have to wait for some sort of official announcement for that. Just that, at it's price, you'd be hard set to find an accessory making more money.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
And PS Portal continues to forever be a representation of why you do not listen to game media and how out of touch they are from the actual people spending their money.

THIS!!! I don't know how many video game media members said the PS Portal was worthless and a waste of time. Clearly they were wrong!

HW sales estimation from Welfare:

It's still insane to me that the PS5 is selling 70% of all HD consoles, whereas the Xbox is selling at 30%. In Xbox's home country. This was unthinkable in the X360 era.

Why would they drop the price? I think they'll do some promotions but I think there is a good chance the price stays where it is until after a major push for GTA6.

I hate that you are right on this. But you are correct. Sony isn't going to drop the price until PS5 Pro is released. And even then, they may not drop the OG PS5 price.



Based on this info Welfare now estimates the following HW sales:

PS5: 250K
NSW: 140K
XBS: 105K

Gonna edit the OP and add them in.


And so for the year of 2024, the PS5 is at 69% and the Xbox Series is at 31% in America. Insane!

In dollar sales. With it being $200, that makes sense that it would be making more money than any other accessory. If the PS5 controller at $70 sold 10,000 units in April, the Portal could sell 4,000 units and still make $100k more than the 10,000 controllers. This doesn't mean it's successful or failed, we'd have to wait for some sort of official announcement for that. Just that, at it's price, you'd be hard set to find an accessory making more money.

Isn't the bolded the point? Considering it's a companion device and not a standalone device.........It allows people to play their PS5 more often (keeping them more engaged) and makes Sony more revenue. I'd be super shocked if they aren't making a profit on each PS Portal sold also.
 
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midnightAI

Member
In dollar sales. With it being $200, that makes sense that it would be making more money than any other accessory. If the PS5 controller at $70 sold 10,000 units in April, the Portal could sell 4,000 units and still make $100k more than the 10,000 controllers. This doesn't mean it's successful or failed, we'd have to wait for some sort of official announcement for that. Just that, at it's price, you'd be hard set to find an accessory making more money.
I was being pedantic really, as there are a few people on here wanting it, willing it, to fail

I'm sure it's not a flop as far as Sony is concerned as it was sold out for ages meaning it's likely outselling Sonys expected sell through (or they'd have made more)
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
I hate that you are right on this. But you are correct. Sony isn't going to drop the price until PS5 Pro is released. And even then, they may not drop the OG PS5 price.

I mean I don't always enjoy being right either. Maybe something people don't realize.

It's just not logical for Sony to drop the price.

Between Q4 (calendar) 2024 and Q1 (calendar) 2026, Sony will probably sell anywhere from 30-40 million units. Would Sony rather sell those at base or for 100 dollars less...

That's 3-4 billion dollars, for what? To sell 5 million more units? 10 million more units, that just increases their losses. I'm not sure it makes much sense. Maybe if PS5 sales really crater they'll be forced to, but I think they'll just try to manage that with temporary promotions rather than fixing the price lower.
 

Humdinger

Member
Good news about Stellar Blade doing so well. I haven't picked it up myself, but it's good to see games that buck modern Western trends running up the charts.

Also good to see that several MS ports are doing well on Playstation. That should encourage them to send more.
 


Yeah just saw this.

I found this graph for NPD results:

Po3z02Z.jpeg

I trust VG Sales way more than VG Chartz, just FYI.

Anyway, if this is accurate and what Mat is saying is accurate, then Xbox Series sales in NA right now are probably ~ 14.5 million at least, going by his "slightly behind" (I think anything greater than 500K would be more than "slightly" but that's maybe just me). It could be 14.8 million or 14.9 million in NA though, who knows.

What is a bit interesting in that case, though, is that the U.S might account for a bit over 55% of total Xbox Series sales. I figure Xbox Series was at ~ 26.2 million by end of March, and I doubt they have sold any great number of systems since then (a safe guess for current figure would probably be something like 26.6 million). So assuming they're only "slightly behind" Xbox 360, something like 14.8 million in the U.S seems possible.

I'm curious how much Canada, Mexico, Brazil and the UK contribute towards total Xbox Series sales though; they are kind of the only other major territories for Microsoft.
 
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mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I mean I don't always enjoy being right either. Maybe something people don't realize.

It's just not logical for Sony to drop the price.

Between Q4 (calendar) 2024 and Q1 (calendar) 2026, Sony will probably sell anywhere from 30-40 million units. Would Sony rather sell those at base or for 100 dollars less...

That's 3-4 billion dollars, for what? To sell 5 million more units? 10 million more units, that just increases their losses. I'm not sure it makes much sense. Maybe if PS5 sales really crater they'll be forced to, but I think they'll just try to manage that with temporary promotions rather than fixing the price lower.

I wish those "temporary" promotions could happen every other month.
 
This guy is just another TheQuartering/Heelvsbabyface clone who panders to the lowest common denominator and doesn't have an original thought at all.

TBF I don't think Review Tech is steeped into the culture war BS like those dudes are (I could be wrong; I haven't watched Review Tech stuff in ages). I'd put him closer to being like a Fritinga or Griffin Gaming type, just more console-focused and less PCMR.

This, in their home territory?

Yeah it's terrible. If my idea that the US is roughly 55% of total sales holds true, then statistically it's possible that worldwide Xbox Series sold less than 200K units that month.

Which, if my guess of them being at ~ 26.2 million sold-through by end of CY Q1 holds mostly accurate, would put their global sales at a bit under 26.4 million by the start of this month.
Not too bad, but not great.

No wonder Microsoft are looking into more full-on multiplatform publishing.

For reference, here are the April 2017 NPD numbers:

PS4: 206k
XBO: 110k
NSW: 280k

PS5 continues to outperform PS4 in the US, while XBS is holding up well compared to XBO (just ~5k units below). And as for the Switch, well, we all know what's happening there. :p

Ah this is helpful. I thought Mat was referring to lifetime though when speaking of PS5 & Series pacing vs PS4 & XBO in the US market though. Maybe he meant month-over-month?

Wish I could find some hard numbers for XBO lifetime by May 2017 in the U.S. Could give a definitive estimate on Series US sales up to this point. I still think ~ 14.8 million in US is a fair estimate if "slightly behind" is referring to lifetime sales in the territory.
 
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Thick Thighs Save Lives

NeoGAF's Physical Games Advocate Extraordinaire
This, in their home territory?
If you're asking about XBS sales performance this month, I made another post here with a bit more context.
For reference, here are the April 2017 NPD numbers:

PS4: 206k
XBO: 110k
NSW: 280k

PS5 continues to outperform PS4 in the US, while XBS is holding up well compared to XBO (just ~5k units below). And as for the Switch, well, we all know what's happening there. :p
 

Woopah

Member
switch is finally really slowing down, i know nintendo is pushing for a next year release for switch 2 to take that best selling video game console crown from playstation, but seeing as it is probably around 140-141 million, and knowing how nintendo hardware tends to drop like a rock, It may cap out around 150 million.
This month's YoY decline is due to the TOTK OLED, but yes I do think Nintendo should and will do a price cut in 2024.
Yeah just saw this.

I found this graph for NPD results:

Po3z02Z.jpeg

I trust VG Sales way more than VG Chartz, just FYI.

Anyway, if this is accurate and what Mat is saying is accurate, then Xbox Series sales in NA right now are probably ~ 14.5 million at least, going by his "slightly behind" (I think anything greater than 500K would be more than "slightly" but that's maybe just me). It could be 14.8 million or 14.9 million in NA though, who knows.

What is a bit interesting in that case, though, is that the U.S might account for just 20% of total Xbox Series sales. I figure Xbox Series was at ~ 26.2 million by end of March, and I doubt they have sold any great number of systems since then (a safe guess for current figure would probably be something like 26.6 million). So assuming they're only "slightly behind" Xbox 360, something like 14.8 million in the U.S seems possible.

I'm curious how much Canada, Mexico, Brazil and the UK contribute towards total Xbox Series sales though; they are kind of the only other major territories for Microsoft.
How are you calculating the US being 20% of Xbox Series figures?
 

Aenima

Member
It’s wild that the number one selling game didn’t crack the top ten most played titles for the month.
Stellar Blade released at 26th April, so you are comparing the montly active users of a game that was available for 5 days, against games that was available for 30 days.
 
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This month's YoY decline is due to the TOTK OLED, but yes I do think Nintendo should and will do a price cut in 2024.

How are you calculating the US being 20% of Xbox Series figures?

It was a mistake on my end. Edited to give actual percentage. U.S is closer to ~ 55% total Xbox Series sales (assuming worldwide figures up to this point are between 26 - 27 million (closer to the lower end IMO).

For that specific chart, it's because Aveum was added to both PS+ and GP.

Regardless, Rebirth has completely dropped out of the top 20 sales. I think at this point it's very safe to say that it's bombed.

It's a JRPG and those games tend to be very frontloaded. Also what is this obsession with Xbox folks wanting to say Rebirth bombed? Do you think an Xbox port will magically save the game, when Xbox couldn't even save its own exclusives (HiFi Rush, Hellblade 2 looking at the state of things, among others)?

I can probably ask that question about a Steam port too, although it'd contribute to a bigger sales boost than Xbox. Just nowhere near big enough relative the install base of that platform.

Realistically only a Switch port would give a huge boon in sales, but that system is way too weak for a port of Rebirth. Switch 2 is the next-best bet but sales of a port there will be limited by the fact it's starting from zero vs. PS5's 60+ million install base.
 
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Bought both Stellar Blade and Sea of Thieves this month. Still playing Helldivers a few times a week as well, great game, something I can see myself always coming back to for years. Sea of thieves is okay, but I'm already starting to get a bit bored with it, been playing it with some coworkers.
 
Regardless, Rebirth has completely dropped out of the top 20 sales.


After selling a few million already. Rebirth is not Spiderman or Mario Kart. They have achieved near their realistic expectations and will likely surpass them on PC , but won't ever sell as GOW or even Horizon Zero Dawn.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
After selling a few million already. Rebirth is not Spiderman or Mario Kart. They have achieved near their realistic expectations and will likely surpass them on PC , but won't ever sell as GOW or even Horizon Zero Dawn.

It doesn't have to match Spider-Man or Mario Kart, but it looks like it's not matching VII Remake or XVI either, at its current pace. Looking at the scope, it's likely a more expensive game to make than VII-R was, and it performing worse is going to effect SE more. You can already see that in how quickly they committed to a fully multi-platform development pipeline after Rebirth, and how they still haven't put out "we have shipped x million units" kind of PR. They had that out for XVI in less than a week.
 
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yazenov

Member
For that specific chart, it's because Aveum was added to both PS+ and GP.

Regardless, Rebirth has completely dropped out of the top 20 sales. I think at this point it's very safe to say that it's bombed.

No, it's not safe to say it bombed. It's number 5 in the YTD charts. For a JRPG exclusive to 1 platform, it's great actually.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
No, it's not safe to say it bombed. It's number 5 in the YTD charts. For a JRPG exclusive to 1 platform, it's great actually.

It had a decent first month but has dropped out of the top 20 charts, replaced by year(s) old games instead. Doesn't look like it has legs and will probably be much lower, or even out, of the top 10 YTD games in the next couple of months as more big games start coming out. But that's just the US, it's also similarly out of all charts and/or is selling lower than XVI comparatively in EU and Japan as well.

It's a shame as other than some story related griefs, I enjoyed my time with the game.
 

yazenov

Member
It had a decent first month but has dropped out of the top 20 charts, replaced by year(s) old games instead. Doesn't look like it has legs and will probably be much lower, or even out, of the top 10 YTD games in the next couple of months as more big games start coming out. But that's just the US, it's also similarly out of all charts and/or is selling lower than XVI comparatively in EU and Japan as well.

It's a shame as other than some story related griefs, I enjoyed my time with the game.

It's very normal for JRPGs to drop off after the 1st month. Check the history of the majority of games in the same genre. Nice try.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
It's very normal for JRPGs to drop off after the 1st month. Check the history of the majority of games in the same genre. Nice try.

I would agree with you in 80% of the cases, but we're not talking about a normal JRPG. This is Final Fantasy, and the middle part of the remake of *the* most well known FF game.

At this rate the third game in the franchise will sell even less.

Steam release late Summer should help claw back a few more million.
 
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As console going for its 8th year, 130k are alright, but a 69% decline YoY is somehow a collapse.

Days of play will have both editions at $50 off so will see if June means a significant increase for PS5.
 
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