maybe, or maybe there's a lower ceiling for hardware in the industry these days. the 3ds has been consistently selling lower than it did a year ago at this point, yes, but it's also been fairly consistently between the 360 and the ps3.
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April 2013 NPD Sales Results [Up3: Xbox 360 Top Platform, NSMBU LTD, Lego 3DS, Luigi]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
maybe, or maybe there's a lower ceiling for hardware in the industry these days. the 3ds has been consistently selling lower than it did a year ago at this point, yes, but it's also been fairly consistently between the 360 and the ps3.
Of All Trades
Member
That dead console still sold over a million units in Dec 2011.
Moreso than any console, Nintendo success is based on Nintendo franchises. Missing this is the flaw in your "Wii U product has no market" theory.
Actually, it's far too soon to make such a definitive statement. While the Wii U's problems stem from something much larger, it may still be indicative of a contraction in the console market, just like the 3DS/Vita has shown that the dedicated handheld market is smaller today than it was a few years back. We wont really know for sure until we actually see how things play out.
shinra-bansho
Member
It presumably does, but rightly or wrongly publishers assume that this is the result of a generation long-in-the-tooth and not some mass exodus from console gaming.
Well, then I'll clarify. The Wii U has a market, a limited niche market. The Nintendo core fanbase. 37K of them bought the Wii U in April.
It is not, however, broadly appealing beyond that market.
The Wii U is competing poorly for late 7th generation adopters, because regardless of how much one labels it a next gen system, it is comparable to the PS3 and 360, and regardless of how much certain fans are enamored with the tablet, nobody really cares about the tablet.
The hardware market is contracting, as we're at the tail end of an adoption cycle.
twothunder
Member
I assume this list doesn't include digital sales?
Fire Emblem was at 240.000 (US LTD) in April. http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/04/18/luigis-mansion-dark-moon-fire-emblem-awakening-sales-figures
So it should be around 270.000 now?
You didn't need to clarify my answer was based on this niche metric you gave.
Aquamarine
Member
For future reference: NPD never includes digital sales.
It's hard to take your reductionist statements seriously. Am I supposed to take this literally? This is what you literally believe? Because shit tends to be a lot more complicated than can be explained in 3 or 4 simple statements.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Mobile/Facebook games increased the gaming population exponentially. My circus? Lol, people have been saying that without a single shred of evidence except that gaming market is contracting due to old hardware and uninteresting new hardware.
This.
shinra-bansho
Member
Feel free to elaborate on how the system is broadly appealing, feel free to elaborate on who exactly the Wii U is supposed to sell to.
It's a question I've asked with little reasonable response.
Who is the target market?
Why should they buy it?
The system is essentially a smaller, more power efficient 360 with a tablet controller and Nintendo's publishing. But without the back-catalog, at a higher price and without upcoming third-party support. To whom, does such a product provide a compelling value proposition.
darkistheway
Member
The 360 dropped from 261k to 130K; that's not contracting, that's collapsing. The long-in-the-tooth argument should see much slower declines than that.
I think the Wii U will do better when it has more than one (real) Nintendo franchise, although I don't know how they are going to get the 40-60 million I had originally thought they would. I still think the Wii U represents a failure of marketing more than anything. At this point, you have to wonder how they even sold 37K; presumably the Nintendo core bought it already or are waiting for more games.
twothunder
Member
Thanks. So Fire Emblem might be a bit over 270.000 then.
Sadly.We can only get those numbers from Nintendo themselves.
two consoles and one handheld won't replace three and two, respectively. there were 3-4 billion games sold last gen. how many do you think there will be between the new xbox, ps4, and 3ds? it's not all about being long in the tooth.
Wii U is so fucked. It has literally FUCK ALL until August, and in the minds of most consumers, Pikmin, Wonderful 101 and Wind Waker HD still constitute as fuck all.
Sales won't significantly pick up until November when Mario and Mario Kart are released. God damn.
Don't even get me started on the Vita. They might as well end the little fucker at this point.
Save us based PS4 and Xbox Infinity.
An industry can expand into new markets without positively affecting more traditional markets. Goddamnit people, you're not business geniuses, believing something fiercely doesn't automatically make it true. It's possible to take in the measure of the facts and decide there isn't enough evidence to make a definitive conclusion. It's possible to argue in defense of a theory rather than a supposed fact.
There are more "gamers" today than there were in 2006 but that doesn't mean the console market hasn't contracted. And I'm not even saying it has, I'm just acknowledging it's a very real possibility based on the last few years.
shinra-bansho
Member
It's a greater March to April decline than normal, but I wouldn't really call it a "collapse". March was a five-week month. Typically the transition is around 70% of the weekly average rather than the ~60% we saw this April. It could be as Mpl posited the movement of Easter into March, but I don't really see Easter as a shopping holiday. My own predictions for the PS3 and 360 were about 20-30K higher for each, which is a bit, but not extreme.
I don't tend to view the handheld and home console markets as a single entity. There's a much stronger substitution in play with smartphones and tablets for handheld gaming.
There will definitely be a contraction due to the loss of the Wii audience; and it's certainly possible that the more traditional audience has either not grown or contracted as well. But the Wii U is no indication of the latter.
StreetsAhead
Member
Wii U is so fucked. It has literally FUCK ALL until April, and in the minds of most consumers, Pikmin, Wonderful 101 and Wind Waker HD still constitute as fuck all.
Sales won't significantly pick up until November when Mario and Mario Kart are released. God damn.
Don't even get me started on the Vita. They might as well end the little fucker at this point.
Save us based PS4 and Xbox Infinity.
CVG said they're expecting Mario by October. We'll see.
Your arguments are asinine because they're predicated on the notion that nintendo is only capable of appealing to an average of 35k people a month when there're two nintendo-centric platforms on the market that are doing notably better, one of which being its predecessor. The Wii U has problems on top of problems on top of a bad case of malignant cancer but saying "this is as good as it can do" is just...it's difficult to take such an argument seriously and I refuse to do so.
DS owners.
Wii owners.
3DS owners.
Gamers that recognize Nintendo games as must haves.
That's a big market.
Now why will they jump in? Because of the Nintendo games. When will they jump in? When Nintendo games are numerous enough to create a value perception. And of course when the price is right. No matter how sexy the GamePad is, lack of Nintendo games and early adopter price are deal breakers as of now.
shinra-bansho
Member
Where did I say that?
I said that 37K core Nintendo fans bought the system last month. I didn't say that such would be the case in perpetuity.
More Nintendo franchises will likely bring on board more of Nintendo's core fanbase, at an increased rate.
But I do not think there will be a grand turnaround, amounting to an order of magnitude increase that some seem to believe there will be simply due to more Nintendo games.
darkistheway
Member
Ok, I didn't realize about the difference in weeks. I still think the long-in-the-tooth argument is incorrect. The PS3 and 360 are still getting lots of software support (what else can publishers do). It may demonstrate that very few new customers exist - which implies that 150-160 million + however many non-casual Wii owners there are, is the upper limit of the console market. (did that make sense - I'm tired
-->
Your arguments have merit but you haven't done a very good job of presenting them. And ultimately it comes down to a shouting match because you don't think nintendo appeals to a substantial chunk of the market, or more precisely, that they're suddenly incapable of doing so anymore.
And again, I'm not arguing that they're suddenly going to start pushing 300k a month once pikmin 3 hits, just that you're being hyperbolic with your evaluation of their dwindling appeal.
speculawyer
Member
This. FFS, something has to save this biz.
it will be valve.
Make that 3
I think that this conversation is going in circles and always will if we don't specify numbers. How much do you think the Wii U will sell at in one year's time with the current Nintendo strategy and how much do you think would be reasonable for it to sell to label it as satisfying?
I suspect the answer to these two questions, especially the last one, varies wildly depending on who you'll be talking to. When the posters earlier said there is a market for the console, I understood gamecube level sales, not Wii level sales but you seem to be thinking the latter.
Yeah it's looking really bad but things are what they are. At least they're trying to revert the console's fate in a way (how much these efforts are late, useless, weak etc. is of course debatable). We shall see.
No! It'll be' Nintendo's hybrid, with no droughts anymore in FP support, strong from the beginning to the end!
What´s this supposed to be?
darkistheway
Member
All I can tell you is that it is full of magic.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I generally do not 'take sides' because I'm not "only a gaming fan," but very much invested in the industry as a whole. I want everyone to be successful, wherever it's warranted. So in that sense,I admit I've been a bit of a Nintendo apologist for awhile. But now, daaaaaaamn, I'm about to give up. I've been laughed at for awhile but even I can see the writing on the wall. There be trouble. Your biggest third party release can barely do 20k? I'm worried! Cmon guys!!
Injustice was their biggest third-party release? Or are referencing a different 3rd party game's sales?
pieatorium
Member
Wasn't it their only third party release?
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Some of you HAVE to know my patterns by now, I do this every month
So wait, were you referring to MH3U or injustice?
I guess it could be both
I think it's a clear contraction of the console and handheld market based on the Wii U not being a successor to the Wii phenomena and Vita not reaching the success of the PSP. Just removing both PSP and Wii removes a third of both the handhand and console market of the seventh generation, respectfully. There is no feasible way that the 3DS, PS4, and Durango can make up for an entire third of the traditional market just dropping out unless either those three systems sell beyond what any traditional system has ever done before or Wii U and Vita do much better to make up for their lackluster early sales.
Wolves Evolve
Member
Good thread for once.
So with the remainder of the year, can the industry really just float on till November on these hardware sales? Vita and Wii U are the newest machines we have and they were both misfired into a hostile market. Neither of them have system sellers coming of any substance, and even if Mario comes in October, it will hit a brick wall of competition a month later.
The rest of this year is going to be brutal on hardware - but it's going to have a good number of million sellers. It really look anemic though when you consider that 44% decline isn't going to go anywhere for a while. Could Microsoft go ballistic at E3 and do a major price drop on the 360 to clear the way?
So with the remainder of the year, can the industry really just float on till November on these hardware sales? Vita and Wii U are the newest machines we have and they were both misfired into a hostile market. Neither of them have system sellers coming of any substance, and even if Mario comes in October, it will hit a brick wall of competition a month later.
The rest of this year is going to be brutal on hardware - but it's going to have a good number of million sellers. It really look anemic though when you consider that 44% decline isn't going to go anywhere for a while. Could Microsoft go ballistic at E3 and do a major price drop on the 360 to clear the way?
AHA-Lambda
Member
Jesus goddamned Christ at WiiU and Vita... Wow.
pieatorium
Member
September will be up on the back of GTA alone for software sales atleast. Untill then expect the worst.
It wouldn't be very fair to him to ask for more details me thinks.
wow 20-30k in 3 weeks. that's horrible considering translation costs. I just don't see SMTIV doing better
Seems like a decent number to me for what it is.
electroplankton
Banned
DEVIL SUMMONER DID MORE THAN 21K UNITS?
Wow, that's a great result for Atlus!
Wow, that's a great result for Atlus!
Heart Attack
Member
wow 20-30k in 3 weeks. that's horrible considering translation costs. I just don't see SMTIV doing better
. I hope I'm wrong though.electroplankton
Banned
wow 20-30k in 3 weeks. that's horrible considering translation costs. I just don't see SMTIV doing better
Horrible?
You may want to know how much Atlus game sell in NA..
It actually did more than MH3U in April...that sold more than 21k.
You always have to put these things in the context of the price.
I agree that the Wii U product has little market for 300-350€ imo.
But that doesn't mean it wouldn't sell better at €250.
I also don't believe in a permanent increase of baseline sales just because of the release of major first party Nintendo titles. Without a combined pricedrop this rarely works.
We saw this in 2008 with the PS3 as well. MGS4 bumped NPD sales by 100 or 200k, next month is was back at pre-MGS4 baseline sales (200k).
Freezie KO
Banned
Kid Icarus deserves more than 400k LTD. I mean, that's okay, but it's an amazing game.
Fire Emblem got some legs. That's encouraging.
NSMB2 needs to go away.
Fire Emblem got some legs. That's encouraging.
NSMB2 needs to go away.
This is from the text on the first page:
“Easter typically accounts for a 10% boost in the month in which it occurs. Since Easter occurred in April last year vs. in March this year, it’s difficult to provide a comparison this year to last.”
Apparently it does make a difference. Christ is risen, go celebrate with some Halos.