(Article) Consoles to replace PC's as dominant home computing systems

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2004/11/29/1129automarketscan07.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=

Apple Seen Building Entertainment Servers
11.29.04, 10:58 AM ET

Merrill Lynch said game consoles will likely eventually edge out PCs as the dominant home computing system. "The future of microprocessors, storage devices, and development environments could be driven by the booming videogame industry," Merrill Lynch said. The research firm added that it's premature to know which device will become the centerpiece of the digital family room of the future, saying it doubts that PCs will win because they are too complex and unstable. "It strikes us as more likely that either (1) the game console will move up market to become the leading entertainment device or (2) a new system we dub the entertainment server will be created," Merrill Lynch said. "We see a window of opportunity for Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) if it can introduce Xbox 2 mid-next year and have the holiday season to itself before Sony's PS3 hits the market." The research firm said Apple Computer (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) seems a likely candidate to build an entertainment server based on its iPod, iTunes, iPhoto, iDVD and AirPort Express products. "If the PC loses out to the game console or entertainment server, there will be winners and losers," Merrill Lynch said. It listed IBM (nyse: IBM - news - people ), Sony (nyse: SNE - news - people ) and Apple as potential winners, while Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people ), Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ) and Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people ) would be possible losers. "Even if successful with Xbox, Microsoft may have more to lose given its PC dominance," Merrill Lynch said.
 
Not.

Or maybe when I can type up a 10 page .doc and send it to my printer while dling porn, making a purchase via amazon, and chatting to Moms via IM.
 
Not much is really required to add the other computer-like capabilities to present day consoles. All of them are basically just proprietary PCs. With as much as it costs to make a good PC that also plays modern games well, I say bring on the mass-produced inexpensive console/PC...
 
You mean like those TV based internet surfing machines that a few startups in 2001 made you believe will be in every living room 3 years from then? Not gonna happen people.
 
The problem with those TV based internet surfing machines was that standard TV resolution is just too low to display webpages (640 x 480). Sony have stated this themselves as to why ps2 doesnt surf the net. But with HDTV's and PS3 /Xenon on the horizon, why shouldnt they surf the web?.
 
No this is more like you get a Sony Homestation and it makes it easy for you to download movies and music and games and anything else you want for a fee.
 
I remember sony talking about how ps2 would allow music/movie downloads. I wonder why they didnt go ahead with that. Would have been a good use for that HDD.
 
Sony's been trying to pull of something like that since the PSX days. I think they realised that the attach rate for the HDD was going to be complete crap and not worth the effort. I'd be completely shocked if the PS3 didn't come with broadband adapter and HD out of the box.
 
There is only so much you can do with those stations, so why not use the PC you got in the bedroom or wherever instead? It's not like those TV surfing machines only failed, they bombed like there's no tomorrow! HDTV is also still very far from being in everyones household.

It will happen eventually in some distant feature. What those people say basically sounds like a regular PC, in some nice small form factor, and a controller attached to it, put in your living room. Why they are still calling that a console, i don't know.
 
"What those people say basically sounds like a regular PC, in some nice small form factor, and a controller attached to it, put in your living room. Why they are still calling that a console, i don't know"

Because it would be a standardised hardware box.
 
mumu said:
There is only so much you can do with those stations, so why not use the PC you got in the bedroom or wherever instead? It's not like those TV surfing machines only failed, they bombed like there's no tomorrow!

They failed because they were attempting to do everything a PC does, only poorly. An "entertainment" server - think Tivo, but more versatile - is a completely different animal, and something that can start hurting Microsoft as people turn to those for certain tasks instead of PCs.
 
Haha. No.

Not enough mana...er I mean RAM.

A PC with 256 MB of RAM and little to no dedicated video memory is a very slow ass PC.
 
Oh please. Because it's Windows, I need more than 256 MB of RAM to have several iterations of Firefox, Matlab with 10 figure windows open, MS Visual C++, a few secure Shell clients and transfer windows, Azureus, AIM, Norton 2005, and a real OS running at the same time?

If you can fit that in 256 MB without sacrificing performance? Good luck with that.
 
teh_pwn said:
Oh please. Because it's Windows, I need more than 256 MB of RAM to have several iterations of Firefox, Matlab with 10 figure windows open, MS Visual C++, a few secure Shell clients and transfer windows, Azureus, AIM, Norton 2005, and a real OS running at the same time?

I think the point of the thread - and Goomba's point specifically - is that boxes running as entertainment servers don't need too much in the way of raw horsepower because they most likely won't be running Windows. Take a look at the innards of a Tivo. (Or a ReplayTV, whatever.) They're, at the end of the day, giant, boxed MPEG encoders/decoders running Linux.

The article isn't suggesting that consoles are going to replace standard PCs, those will always have their place. But as far as entertainment goes, they may fall off completely. And given the dearth of major PC games in recent years (remember when it took more than one hand to count the big, big games?), it seems like an accurate estimate. The concept of the "entertainment server" will eventually materialize, and its Sony and Tivo who are most likely to lead the way.
 
xsarien said:
I think the point of the thread - and Goomba's point specifically - is that boxes running as entertainment servers don't need too much in the way of raw horsepower because they most likely won't be running Windows. Take a look at the innards of a Tivo. (Or a ReplayTV, whatever.) They're, at the end of the day, giant, boxed MPEG encoders/decoders running Linux.

The article isn't suggesting that consoles are going to replace standard PCs, those will always have their place. But as far as entertainment goes, they may fall off completely. And given the dearth of major PC games in recent years (remember when it took more than one hand to count the big, big games?), it seems like an accurate estimate. The concept of the "entertainment server" will eventually materialize, and its Sony and Tivo who are most likely to lead the way.

IAWTP.

PC's will less and less be the platform of choice for games, movies, music, web, & email.

If a home system can do those, that will cover 95% of what your average joe uses their computer for. General purpose PC's will still be needed for standard application software.
 
xsarien said:
I think the point of the thread - and Goomba's point specifically - is that boxes running as entertainment servers don't need too much in the way of raw horsepower because they most likely won't be running Windows.
The Xbox variant will :) This is all part of Microsoft's greater plan, however i doubt it's gonna happen. Those multimedia centers will get in the living room eventually, but i think they are nearly a decade away from being mainstream. And they are not gonna replace PCs or hurt them significantly. Videogames is another story.
 
I've never believed it before in the past. But these new systems could offer everything to people who want both entertainment and home computer. Microsofts conflict with wanting both PC and Xbox 2 in your home could be their downfall.
 
Consoles are going to kill off PC's - 1991
Consoles are going to kill off PC's - 1996
Consoles are going to kill off PC's - 2001
Consoles are going to kill off PC's - 2005

Seems like I heard this somewhere before.
 
Docwiz said:
Consoles are going to kill off PC's - 1991
Consoles are going to kill off PC's - 1996
Consoles are going to kill off PC's - 2001
Consoles are going to kill off PC's - 2005

Seems like I heard this somewhere before.

No. The argument was always that consoles would kill PC gaming, which while not killing it, has certainly stopped it's growth, caused a decline, stolen it's developers, and generally, beat the crap out of it.
 
CrimsonSkies said:
This is not about killing PC gaming. This is about killing the need for the PC. That's a fundamentally different angle.

No, it's about killing the need for the PC as an entertainment hub.
 
"No, it's about killing the need for the PC as an entertainment hub."

An entertainment hub is how the PC is marketed now by Dell, Gateway, etc.
 
CrimsonSkies said:
"No, it's about killing the need for the PC as an entertainment hub."

An entertainment hub is how the PC is marketed now by Dell, Gateway, etc.

Some of their systems, yes.
 
Here is some of the text of the report:


Highlights:
• The delivery vehicle for leading-edge technology has migrated over time from the
mainframe to minicomputer to PC. We believe that game machines will be the next
advanced platform, which could have important strategic implications. The future of
microprocessors, storage devices, and development environments could be driven by the
booming video game industry.

• Sony and Microsoft are building their next-generation consoles using 65-nanometer
chips, extensive parallel processing, and state-of-the-art software development
environments. IBM is working with both though on different processors, which might
be too sophisticated for PCs.

• Sony, in concert with IBM and Toshiba, could be using a cell computer architecture.
The PlayStation 3 should come out in 2006 with up to 1,000X the processing power of a
PS2. Microsoft’s Xbox 2 could be unveiled earlier in mid-2005. Microsoft is shooting
for a system-on-a-chip approach and might incorporate a next-generation fast flash
product from M-Systems of Israel.

• It’s premature to know which (if any) device will become the centerpiece of the digital
family room of the future. Still, we doubt that PCs (even Media Center PCs) will win
because they are too complex and unstable. It strikes us as more likely that either (1)
the game console will move up market to become the leading entertainment device
or (2) a new system we dub the entertainment server will be created.

• We see a window of opportunity for Microsoft if it can introduce Xbox 2 mid-next
year and have the holiday season to itself before Sony’s PS3 hits the market.

Microsoft could overcome its current installed base disadvantage with early, highperformance
hardware but must have games available at introduction.

• Apple seems a likely candidate to build the entertainment server. It would be based
on Apple’s iPod, iTunes, iPhoto, iDVD, and AirPort Express products. A 200GB server
at a reasonable price and possibly with PVR technology could be Apple’s next category
killer. Sony is likely to leverage its Cell processor in its own entertainment server.

• If the PC loses out to the game console or entertainment server, there will be winners
and losers. We believe IBM will be a net beneficiary because of its Microelectronics
business and platform shift away from consumer PCs where it is weak. We don’t expect
Intel will be in any of the upcoming game machines and, therefore, believe it is at risk.
Even if successful with Xbox, Microsoft may have more to lose given its PC
dominance; as leading PC vendors, HP and Dell would prefer that game machines
remain a niche. Sony could gain new life since it largely missed the PC revolution. And
Apple has a chance to take center stage in a potentially large market.




Some interesting speculation.

Link to full report
 
CrimsonSkies said:
This is not about killing PC gaming. This is about killing the need for the PC. That's a fundamentally different angle.
Yup, and it's been said before, particularly about the PS2. Sony (or at least people reporting on the PS hardware) have said this since 2000, if not sooner. It's really not gonna happen for a while, but it's inevitable. That or PCs will become like consoles first. PEACE.
 
I find it quite ironic/amusing that no commercially available product even comes close to a modded Xbox with XBMC as an entertainment hub.

:lol :lol :lol

Especially seeing as XBMC uses the open source Linux Mplayer core.
 
gollumsluvslave said:
I find it quite ironic/amusing that no commercially available product even comes close to a modded Xbox with XBMC as an entertainment hub.

:lol :lol :lol

Especially seeing as XBMC uses the open source Linux Mplayer core.

MS might have learned from this and incorporated the lessions into Xenon. Which is good because I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO HAVE A HARDDRIVE IN THE XENON MICROSOFT KPLZTHNX.
 
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