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[lughnasadh123]

I can easily see this coming to PS5 down the road in a few years as they monitor the profit of the game along with expansion of sales from hardware and GP. Same with other expected exclusive titles.

 

[RoadHazard]

So disregarding the fact that GP games don't really sell, does the author of this article believe the publisher gets 100% of the revenue from a $70 game sale?

 

[DarthPutin]

Also...

It's creepy to realize that even THAT isn't that much money nowadays. He could barely afford Activision + Bethesda at this price. Basically, he'd cover the cost of operation, pay some bonuses to his best villains, and come close to breaking even.

 

[bender]

 

[Gaiff]

How much did it do on each platform?

We don't have the breakdown.

It's not just skipping PS systems that make it almost impossible; highly likely the game will skip Nintendo systems, too.

At first I thought the game could do 14 or so million lifetime between Xbox & PC (not necessarily $1 billion in sales that way, just units moved), but that was assuming much stronger reception. At best reception towards the game is "It's decent-to-good, but nothing special". Even in the context of other big games released this year, it falls very flat compared to say Hogwarts or TOTK, or Baldur's Gate 3, and I think it'll fall flat to Spiderman 2 as well plus Super Mario Bros. Wonder and the Super Mario RPG remake.

So sales will probably start slowing down a lot if they haven't already. They can maybe still reach 14 million lifetime (mostly on PC) but it'll really come down to how long DLC comes out, how good it is, and how good the mod community's support for the game is. But $1 billion? Yeah that isn't happening without porting it to Sony and/or Nintendo platforms.

Unless Microsoft wants to start breaking down Game Pass subscriber & revenue uptick on a per-game basis. Which I don't think they will ever do, because once they start, everyone (gamers, shareholders, investors, analysts etc.) will expect them to keep with that transparency, or take lack of it as admittance of model failure.

Skyrim managed 20M units sold in 19 months on 3 platforms. Fallout 4 shipped 12M copies in 24 hours on 3 platforms but Starfield will only manage 14M lifetime across Xbox and PC? Didn't know Playstation was like 80% of Bethesda's userbase.

Lol when in 2028?

We have enough real world data to extrapolate that it didn’t do so hot on a sales basis. Steam and the UK sales charts are pretty unambiguously clear.

It did so mediocre they had to announce it by how many people have played it. Which is classic Microsoft cope. Need I remind people of when halo infinite was the biggest halo launch of all time due to “amount of players”. Now this is the “”biggest bethesda launch of all time”” cmon. Fool me once.

The UK boxed charts that only track physical sales when Series S is apparently over 60% of the total number of Xbox or more and that physical is non-existent on PC? I don't know about that one.

 

[Bkdk]

They could just say all future game pass sales are due to playing starfield since it got downloaded.

 

[anothertech]

"but we won't release sales numbers, cause that's misleading."

 

[lh032]

its on gamepass, that would be very hard, unless they attracted tons of new users or most people prefer physical/digital over gamepass for Starfield, could be possible.

 

[Gameplay Gods Bless]

I don't believe there is a prayers chance that Starfield makes $1 billion.

I'd love to see the math where they come up with that number.

The game would have to sell 14 million copies at full price without counting deluxe edition, DLC etc. The game selling at a discount and introducing deluxe edition and paid DLC changes that equation.

 

[Hero_Select]

Just going through this thread, readin' some comments and stuff and oh my god some of you guys REALLY just want to hate on everything Microsoft does. Let it go guys, it'll be okay.

 

[newtypepilot]

lol 1 billion

That's some disney level accounting right there

 

[KungFucius]

How TF people are still incapable to understand a developer makes a fraction of the full retail price? I don’t even get into revenue vs. net profit.

Ah usually when you talk about how much something makes, you talk about how much it brings in in sales, not profits. Same with people. It's not like people take taxes out of their salary when they talk about how much they make.

The problem here is that the game is pretty bad. I have yet to finish it, but the bullshit I have experienced so far has me more disappointed than anything. Someone needs to step in and tell them all the things that suck about this game were fucking avoidable if better decisions were made. Poor pacing, shitty companions who overreact, shitty AI, the whole world instantly knows you stole that bullet, I mean fucking A, how can you spend that much time and money on this and not put some effort into making the game better than fucking Oblivion was 20 years ago? Instead it is fucking worse than Oblivion. Oblivion was pretty good, this game is just passable.

 

[Stooky]

i don’t think it will hit the billion mark anytime soon. with all the streaming services, we’ll probably never get real numbers. just like music industry with digital vs cd vs streaming sales. they are always fudging those numbers. my question about all this is with a subscription how much is download/stream worth?

 

[StereoVsn]

The issue is how do you count GamePass revenue. I have a hard time believing that GamePass received significant growth due to Starfield. Especially with its mediocre reviews.

And for existing subscribers , how do you even count that?

So it must have sold 1.5 to 2 mil copies on Steam, another 1 mil elsewhere, and then what? Guess had some upsell on the Premium edition for GamePass players as well.

 

[DeaDPo0L84]

Who cares about making money if you're a business when the real prize is engagement. Heck I even offered my mortgage company engagement versus actually paying the mortgage and they were thrilled, can't believe it took me this long to figure this out, thanks Microsoft.

#XboxKnowsMefrfr

 

[FF:Enhanced_Reality]

If this title was on all platforms and not on GamePass, I think that's very possible. Now it's being given away for free as part of a subscription service, not a cats chance in hell.

 

[Ozzie666]

I mean with steam and the modding community, maybe, eventually? These forecasts had to be made when they were developing for PS4 and or PS5 right? Insane.
It's like people don't understand the gamepass effect and how it canibalized boxed sales, where do any of the profits go? TO Bethesda or Microsoft? or are they one in the same.
Hard to justify your game and company, when it's all tied to 'players played' metrics and the growth of gamepass.

 

[ShadyAcshuns]

Starfield is to this forum what Hogwarts: Legacy is to purple forum. lol

 

[ReBurn]

Looking at steam numbers where most sales are - no way in hell

Did they release some sales figures that give us insight into Steam sales? That would be cool to see.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

 

[RoboFu]

I don't believe there is a prayers chance that Starfield makes $1 billion.

I'd love to see the math where they come up with that number.

Maybe because there’s more than just UK box sales out there?

 

[Wulfer]

Just a thought. Why is this math so difficult to believe? First, MS said Starfield would be on Gamepass for free not it's DLC. I can easily see where they plan to get these numbers if DLC for Starfield is released at 20+ dollars a pop. It's pretty easy to see that Bethesda planned a long long long life for Starfield. The numbers add up when DLC costs come into play something that really wasn't planned all that well for Skyrim! Skyrim got 3 DLCs. Starfield has its first DLC this Christmas? MS/Bethesda are planning a long tail for this one.

 

[graywolf323]

Skyrim managed 20M units sold in 19 months on 3 platforms. Fallout 4 shipped 12M copies in 24 hours on 3 platforms but Starfield will only manage 14M lifetime across Xbox and PC? Didn't know Playstation was like 80% of Bethesda's userbase.

they weren’t on GamePass Day 1

Just going through this thread, readin' some comments and stuff and oh my god some of you guys REALLY just want to hate on everything Microsoft does. Let it go guys, it'll be okay.

I find the persecution complex from Microsoft fans in response to legitimate criticism much more baffling

 

[Gojiira]

Im sure they did expect a Billion…Before Gamepass.
£10 Subscription vs £60 Purchase? Yeah good luck Bethesda, 90% of players will have nabbed it on Gamepass. So while Xbox and Bethesda will say its a hit, it wont come anywhere close to what it would have reached without Gamepass cannibalising its sales potential. And of course had it been multiplatform like originally planned.

 

[BbMajor7th]

We are being real here. Fallout 4 had a large PlayStation base and didn’t have Gamepass to contend with.

Also back when Bethesda were on fire. People fully expected FO4 to be another Skyrim/FO3 tier experience. It wasn't and 76 was a PR disaster.

 

[Edgelord79]

At this point Microsoft and their studios could say anything truthful and nobody would believe them.

There’s a moral to this story.

 

[Gaiff]

they weren’t on GamePass Day 1

I find the persecution complex from Microsoft fans in response to legitimate criticism much more baffling

Yes, and that's why they're stretching $1B over 4 years. Without Game Pass, they would have done it in a couple of weeks. Game Pass won't tank the game's revenues from $1B in 2 months to less than $1B in 4 years.

 

[ClosBSAS]

I don't believe there is a prayers chance that Starfield makes $1 billion.

I'd love to see the math where they come up with that number.

lmao come on man, this is about the legs, why do you ppl want to see starfield fail so badly? what did it do to you? just let it run.itll reach 1 billlion in the long run its not hard.

 

[MikeM]

I contributed $10 through GP and no more after this month.

 

[iHaunter]

No shot.

 

[Kerotan]

Was this before or after they cancelled the ps5 version?

 

[Dracor]

Did the OP, or anyone, actually read the article? $600M + $215M + $50M + $35M does not equal $1,000M ($1B). The title of this thread is incorrect.

Fallout 4 generated $750M in 24 hours and people think Starfield won't hit $1B after 4 years? I love mocking the game as much as anyone else but let's be real here.

I completely agree, especially as the leaks point to DLC coming next year (and the target is actually $900M over 4 years).

Now that expectation that Redfall would make $245 million over that period…. ouch…

 

[mckmas8808]

Was this before or after they cancelled the ps5 version?

Before.

 

[Ozzy Onya A2Z]

Just going through this thread, readin' some comments and stuff and oh my god some of you guys REALLY just want to hate on everything Microsoft does. Let it go guys, it'll be okay.

You have to love the drive by posts in threads like these. It's like these posters' game quality is tied directly to sales data and forum soapboxing, doubt they can enjoy a game if it isn't the #1 sales leader. There is no fun to be had in games titles that aren't the best in a genre. What a sad way to enjoy gaming.

As for Starfield it will surpass that number in time, just a question of when, not if.

 

[SublimeAnarky]

I think a previous post someone made on 'Which is your main platform for gaming?' showed only 12% of GAF being Xbox 'mains'.. And while i understand Starfield is also on PC - I'm sure PC players aren't particularly invested in anything Xbox specific.

So to have as much discourse on something so Xbox specific is going to have hot takes - and then some.

 

[Stooky]

Just a thought. Why is this math so difficult to believe? First, MS said Starfield would be on Gamepass for free not it's DLC. I can easily see where they plan to get these numbers if DLC for Starfield is released at 20+ dollars a pop. It's pretty easy to see that Bethesda planned a long long long life for Starfield. The numbers add up when DLC costs come into play something that really wasn't planned all that well for Skyrim! Skyrim got 3 DLCs. Starfield has its first DLC this Christmas? MS/Bethesda are planning a long tail for this one.

dlc doesn’t sell like that. day 1 on Gamepass is going to choke their sales. i doubt Microsoft would ever release their numbers on this.

 

[Dice]

1 billion in 4 years without porting to everything?

...good luck!

 

[T-0800]

Starfield is to this forum what Hogwarts: Legacy is to purple forum. lol

That's not true. People can talk about Starfield.

 

[Heisenberg007]

In Starfield's case it would it would need the $16 p/m since it isn't part of the $11 tier.

On another note, Gamepass Core at $60 a year is actually pretty reasonable.

It is. It's available on both $11 and $17 tiers.

 

[Heisenberg007]

The game would have to sell 14 million copies at full price without counting deluxe edition, DLC etc. The game selling at a discount and introducing deluxe edition and paid DLC changes that equation.

Games go on discount after a few months. Starfield is already discounted at select retailers and was even discounted before the launch with specific methods.

Unless it's selling ~14-15 million in the first few months, it will need to sell a hell of a lot more to hit that $1 billion mark as MSRP goes down with time.

 

[BoxFresh123]

This estimate would have been pre-acquisition and putting it on Game Pass right? Bethesda games have legs but you have to think no PS and GP subs must take a bite out of sales.

 

[DenchDeckard]

This will make 1 billion in its sleep over 4 years.

 

[DenchDeckard]

So Bethesda are including Game Pass users in this estimate?

Errrrm...if it makes 1 billion it makes one billion... it doesn't matter how the money comes in.

 

[Bo_Hazem]

 

[Negotiator101]

Errrrm...if it makes 1 billion it makes one billion... it doesn't matter how the money comes in.

I'm sure people are once again struggling to understand revenue and over 4 years, but then again this is a Starfield thread so it's turned into a clown convention.

 

[Three]

Completely conceivable given how many had early access, the fact Bethesda games sell over a long time and of course the DLC next year. Anyone saying otherwise is letting their emotions get the better of them. Yes for some reason people have become very emotional about Starfield

If the majority paid for early access then whatever DLC they put out next year will not make a lot of revenue. It will eat into those sales.

 

[xrnzaaas]

So it's getting a PS release to reach that 1 billion goal, eh?

 

[Negotiator101]

If the majority paid for early access then whatever DLC they put out next year will not make a lot of revenue. It will eat into those sales.

Majority? no it's not the Majority. Around 2 million, 1 million of those on Steam and overall 10 million players so far. Its over 4 years to reach 1 billion in revenue, its going to achieve that without question. Also the premium edition which was required for E access was more expensive because the DLC was in the purchase.

 

[Mephisto40]

It's not going to make anywhere near that amount of money being on GamePass

 

[mckmas8808]

Games go on discount after a few months. Starfield is already discounted at select retailers and was even discounted before the launch with specific methods.

Unless it's selling ~14-15 million in the first few months, it will need to sell a hell of a lot more to hit that $1 billion mark as MSRP goes down with time.

At an average sale price of $50, wouldn't you think selling 18-20 million units is what this game will need to do to hit that "Billionish" number?