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BO Wkd 0616-1817 - Queen is dethroned, all hail McQueen, ScarJo roughed up
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Also I guess Hot Rod is French.
Nobody knows why he's French.
That's his joke.
Nobody knows why he's French.
That's his joke.
BronsonLee
Member
My revenge is complete.
(it's likely because they're classifying it as something else for some reason)
George Oscar Bluth II
Banned
This GIF is perfect, because I think it was that exact scene where I learned the difference between slander and libel.
BronsonLee
Member
Me too!
Sibersk Esto
Banned
Michael Bay follows the Vince McMahon school of racial portrayals.
Saucycarpdog
Member
Knowing Bay, there's probably a dick joke about that somewhere in the film.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
He doesn't surrender or anything like that does he?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't think so?
(He's apparently voiced by Omar Sy)
(He's apparently voiced by Omar Sy)
Kenzodielocke
Banned
TF5 spoiler:
and
early movie spoiilers:
Merlin confirmed, he is in it for 5 minutes.
earth is Unicron.
early movie spoiilers:
"Early in the movie the creator of Cybertron, Quintessa (no idea where she came from) says that Earth is actually Cybertron's enemy, Unicron"
That he is. He is American. He just thinks French is cool. And I mean who thinks French sounds cool?
For posterity, here were your DOM and WW projections for Wonder Woman, taken from the thread the week before it came out. If you are in red, the film has already surpassed your numbers 2+ weeks in.
Everyone except for DeathyBoy is going to be low on DOM, and maybe 4 people will be high on WW.
Everyone except for DeathyBoy is going to be low on DOM, and maybe 4 people will be high on WW.
Dom Tot: 180M
WW Tot: 900M
For posterity, here were your DOM and WW projections for Wonder Woman, taken from the thread the week before it came out. If you are in red, the film has already surpassed your numbers 2+ weeks in.
Everyone except for DeathyBoy is going to be low on DOM, and maybe 4 people will be high on WW.
Never been so pleased to be wrong
Kenzodielocke
Banned
They are calling Baby Driver....
in Germany....
Drive Baby Drive.....
in Germany....
Drive Baby Drive.....
But why. The marketing has already started for Baby Driver.
Gentleman Jack
Member
I guess Baby Fährt would have made people giggle too much.
Thats actually a better name
I actually like it better as well
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Oh no. Omar, shame on you.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I'm having a tough time pinpointing exactly what I want to predict for TF5's first 5 days, aka I hate midweek releases.
PhantomX1313
Member
All t5 needs is to be called the worst movie of the year to make a billion
You're going to end up pretty damn close...
Here's my thoughts on Transformers 5:
Age of Extinction roughly made $245M domestic, $310M China, and$450 $550M elsewhere.
The current domestic projection is $70-75M over 5 days which is terrible. For comparison, Dark of the Moon made over $160M in its first 5 days, and Revenge of the Fallen was over $200M.
Assuming that the 5-day total is in the right ballpark, you can probably just double it to get the domestic take. So in this case about $150M.
Presales in China are running at about half of what Fate of the Furious had 2 days before debut. Transformers started its presales later though. I'm going to guess about $300M in China, based on presales. It could be a bit lower than that.
I think that overseas (outside of China) will mirror the domestic run. Local currency drops probably won't be as harsh, but you also have to factor in weak exchange rates. I'll say 70% of AoE overseas (minus China), giving us a total of around$315M $385M
DOM: $150M
OS: $385M
China: $300M
WW Total = $835M
EDIT: $550 elswhere, not $450! Updating the OS figures to compensate.
Age of Extinction roughly made $245M domestic, $310M China, and
The current domestic projection is $70-75M over 5 days which is terrible. For comparison, Dark of the Moon made over $160M in its first 5 days, and Revenge of the Fallen was over $200M.
Assuming that the 5-day total is in the right ballpark, you can probably just double it to get the domestic take. So in this case about $150M.
Presales in China are running at about half of what Fate of the Furious had 2 days before debut. Transformers started its presales later though. I'm going to guess about $300M in China, based on presales. It could be a bit lower than that.
I think that overseas (outside of China) will mirror the domestic run. Local currency drops probably won't be as harsh, but you also have to factor in weak exchange rates. I'll say 70% of AoE overseas (minus China), giving us a total of around
DOM: $150M
OS: $385M
China: $300M
WW Total = $835M
EDIT: $550 elswhere, not $450! Updating the OS figures to compensate.
Gentleman Jack
Member
Ohh I wanna play the "let's all underestimate Transformers" game.
5-day OW: $110M
Dom total: $230M
WW total: $950M
Wait...did I do it wrong? Who cares!
5-day OW: $110M
Dom total: $230M
WW total: $950M
Wait...did I do it wrong? Who cares!
I dropped $100M from AoE's overseas portion due to a math failure. Since I think that overseas will be down about 30%, I added back in the $70M that I didn't mean to discard
The last film would have been at around $950M with today's rates.
BronsonLee
Member
hater
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Thanks for compiling the projections, Quake1028! I definitely underestimated WW's domestic potential.
I'm gonna predict 170 million in the US for Transformers 5 and a worldwide total of 850.
I'm gonna predict 170 million in the US for Transformers 5 and a worldwide total of 850.
Gentleman Jack
Member
I wonder if the heatwave in Cali is going to have an effect on people wanting to be in a theater to escape triple digit heat.
I like that name better. LOL!
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
"Oh, fuck"
Here we are, in June of the year 2017 of our Lord, and Michael Bay has returned from the grave of Benjamin Ghazi to deliver his final (as long as we don't count his next 13 Transformers films) contribution to the longest running franchise of all time. The marketing has lived up to this promise of closure, bringing the series to its logical conclusion with franchise "hero" Optimus Prime vowing to destroy the planet Earth and every miserable human being on it. The question to be addressed here is whether lifeforms on this plane of existence will flock to theaters over the next five days, or will this majestic series falter as us mere mortals fail to comprehend the true art on display?
The franchise has been on a downward spiral since the second film, at least domestically (thanks, Obama) and the early signs give no impression of that changing. Its worth noting just massive this franchise once was stateside, with the first Transformers film beating out the third Pirates of the Caribbean film and nearly topping the third Shrek film. In fact, these franchises have mirrored each other to an uncanny degree. Its worth examining that, and tabulated below is the domestic take for each film, along with the Flixster user score found on rottentomatoes.com. Note that Pirates 5s final domestic is estimated:
Code:
Pirates of the Caribbean Shrek Transformers
1st $305.4M/86% $267.7M/90% $319.2M/85%
2nd $423.3M/72% $441.2M/69% $402.1M/57%
3rd $309.4M/72% $322.7M/52% $352.4M/55%
4th $241.1M/54% $238.7M/54% $245.4M/51%
5th $165.0M/67% N/A TBD
Online signs are quite weak; as of this writing, boxoffice.coms twitter tracking narrowly places it in the top five and it only accounts for 13% of ticket sales on movietickets.com. The review embargo does not end up 7PM EST, i.e., when showtimes begin on the East Coast. A few reviews have broken it, but needless to say, it is likely critics will enjoy The Last Knight as much as a hole in the head.
With a Wednesday release, predicting exactly how the five day opening plays out will be tricky. There have been few Tuesday previews for major releases since that weekday became huge at the box office, so the most useful comparison is The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. The Hobbit 3 made a very high 45.8% of its opening day in previews, but I wouldnt expect Transformers 5 to be quite that high thanks in part to lower anticipation and schools being out. The Wednesday release was decided fairly late in the game, so it is reasonable to assume the Friday increase will be strong as awareness of the midweek opening is probably not especially uniform. As we have seen with Pirates 5, even apparent stronger word of mouth does not necessarily lead to better legs for fivequels, and next week starts an onslaught of appealing releases, so expect The Last Knight to have multiple 50+% drops for the next month. Im feeling solid about a domestic total of ~$140M, which may seem like an incredible drop-off from the last film, but it is worth noting that The Hangover franchise saw an even more precipitous fall between the second and third installment ($254M to $112M). With the trickiness of midweek releases, dont be surprised if my daily breakdown is tossed out the window or completely scrambled.
Of course, the bread and butter of the last two Transformers films have been the overseas money. Dark of the Moon and Age of Extinction each made over $1.1B worldwide, with the latter making three and a half times its domestic take overseas with $858.6M. China accounted for a massive portion of that, with a then record $320M gross. Analysts were initially expecting Transformers 5 to gross over $400+M in the country, but presales have been relatively soft and suggest a total a bit under the fourth film is more likely. Even with significantly weaker exchange rates than in 2014, that still is almost certain to film the film on track for at least $800M worldwide. Im not certain whether the overseas gross will hit merely $650M or top $700M, but lets split the difference.
Code:
Pre: $7.3M
Wed: $12.4M/$19.7M
Thu: $8.6M -30.65%/-56.35%
Fri: $13.1M +52.33%
Sat $16.3M +24.43%
Sun: $12.4M -23.93%
OW: $41.8M
2nd: $18.4M -55.98%
3rd: $7.3M -60.33%
4th: $3.8M -47.95%
DOM: $140M
INT: $684M
WW: $824M
^^^
Pretty much what I had, but even more pessimistic on the domestic take
I have heard that T5 has an ungodly amount of product placement, including some expensive Chinese deals. I have also heard that Chinese distributors/studios have guaranteed Paramount something like $130M (when their take on a $300M gross would usually be about $75M).
As such, I don't think it is possible for The Last Knight to actually lose money.
Pretty much what I had, but even more pessimistic on the domestic take
I have heard that T5 has an ungodly amount of product placement, including some expensive Chinese deals. I have also heard that Chinese distributors/studios have guaranteed Paramount something like $130M (when their take on a $300M gross would usually be about $75M).
As such, I don't think it is possible for The Last Knight to actually lose money.
BronsonLee
Member
What Chinese beer will Cade Yaeger save in this movie
Lord Frieza
Member
Damn, Optimus is one cold-blooded machine
MHWilliams
Member
Much better title.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Stay tuned for Dunkirk.
For posterity, here were your DOM and WW projections for Wonder Woman, taken from the thread the week before it came out. If you are in red, the film has already surpassed your numbers 2+ weeks in.
Everyone except for DeathyBoy is going to be low on DOM, and maybe 4 people will be high on WW.
Own that shit. Own it! What'd you thiink was gonna happen? Huh?
I'm predicting 110 Dom and 1.8 billion WW for TF5. All in.
SomewhatGroovy
Banned
Transformers is taking a billion out of your pockets and you're getting transformers 6, 7 and 8
and you'll love it,damn it.
that's my prediction.
and you'll love it,damn it.
that's my prediction.