Producing exit polls while the polls are still open potentially skews the remaining vote, for example if you were voting remain and you read that remain was way ahead in the exit poll you might not bother to vote.
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Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016
- Thread starter QuicheFontaine
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Producing exit polls while the polls are still open potentially skews the remaining vote, for example if you were voting remain and you read that remain was way ahead in the exit poll you might not bother to vote.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
There never is an "official" one. It's the BBC that does it. And the validity of an exit poll depends a lot on knowing swings and demographics and voting behaviours and suchlike. Here, because there is nothing previous to go on, an exit poll is likely to be useless (i.e. probably wrong).
But that's not how exit polls usually work though.
We usually get a exit poll result 10 or so minutes after polling has closed, so doesn't influence voting
Roberto Larcos
Member
I used to think the same way as you. Me and my friends all got here from working class backgrounds and despite our upwards ascent we continued to be centre left in our political views. I was a strong believer that if we have done it, with the right policies we could open up opportunities for far more people.
However, the last few years have really challenged the views I've held. Time and time again the electorate have voted against their best interests. The man on the street is easily mislead and there is no excuse nowadays with information freely available online.
Now it's taken a nasty turn and these people are directly threatening the lifestyles of me and my friends. We no longer feel any responsibility to vote in what we feel is the country's best interests. Why try and vote to help people who can turn on you, when you can get on the Tory train and exploit them.
The thing about the working class. If someone can rock up here from Latvia, with English as a second language, a worse state education and no support network, and take your job, you've only got yourself to blame.
Typed on a phone so excuse errors.
As explained before, my terminology was wrong. There never is an "official" one, but the networks band together to do one for the general election. They don't on this like they didn't on the Scottish independance. With it being a straight yes/no, it's a lot harder and more expensive to do.
Visualante2
Member
Tangential but I am going to be a polling clerk for this referendum after a colleague mentioned she has done it for several years. £180 for the day before tax. 1.5 hour training and then a 16 hour stint in some village hall. You can't leave and there's no breaks but you're free to eat, drink and use the toilet when needed. You can vote yourself on the job too.
Should be riveting.
Should be riveting.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I appreciate the honest response.
But I'd add that the working class and in particular the self-employed working class are at a particular disadvantage here. They are not protected, as much of the middle class is, by professional associations (the Bar Council, the Law Society, the BMA etc etc) and by dominant large organisations (in finance, the civil service etc etc) both of which restrict the supply of jobs and maintain high pay.
It's not enough to say you'll throw Peterborough's plumbers to the wolves if you won't also open up the legal, medical and other professions to competition in the same way.
That attitude you blame upon the lowlifes of Peterborough is something you and your peers are protected from.
It seems you have taken this nasty turn yourself if you honestly view people as 'plebs' and think they deserve to be fucked over. At least you are honest.
QuicheFontaine
Member
The sun gets into this country far too easy....
I'd vote out if we could exile the sun.
I've done that for years, not in Britain mind you but in Finland. I still suspect the experience to be pretty similar. In my opinion it is not a bad way to spend your day if the people you work with are all right. It's usually very laid back work with some busy hours when everyone seems to come in to vote at the same time.
Plenty of people come to the UK to study and then take up professional jobs in the City. Saying that the professions are not open to globalisation and we've been protected is a bit disingenuous.
My firm has hired non-Brits because of specific language skills, when under a British state education you'd have had no chance to learn the languages we were looking for. British applicants didn't even make it past HR and had no chance.
My firm has hired non-Brits because of specific language skills, when under a British state education you'd have had no chance to learn the languages we were looking for. British applicants didn't even make it past HR and had no chance.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I think we're a bit at cross-purposes here. I trying to claiming "barriers to entry" as a means of wage protection, rather than whether or not people come from overseas. there are, for example, plenty of overseas doctors in the UK, but that doesn't mean that barriers to the medical profession aren't maintained by the BMA (in particular, say, the often artificial distinction between doctor jobs v nurse jobs - or, in law, between barristers/solicitors/legal executives/the rest). In the past, this job was done by the Unions and trade guilds, which are now - barring exceptions - pretty well defunct.
Frankfurter
Member
Adops 0% of EU rules. Yeah, right.
Exports more than 5x to the EU than the UK. Whatever weird metric they were using, it's certainly not to be taken at face value.
Exports more than 5x to the EU than the UK. Whatever weird metric they were using, it's certainly not to be taken at face value.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
So is the 4th. Switzerland exports CHF 208.4 billion of which 45% goes to the EU, which is GBP 66.9 billion worth. The United Kingdom exports about GBP 242 billion to the EU (44% of total), meaning it does about four times as much as Switzerland.
ReplacementPelican
Member
First of all, try to avoid the 'I used to be like you' crap, it's condescending and quite ridiculous given that I've already said that I agree but I disliked your tone towards the working class.
Nice rationale but your first post was still incredibly hateful. For you to agree that the less educated are misled but then simultaneously say 'fuck them' is ridiculous and perhaps some of your anger should be directed to the people misleading them. Also, do you really think Brexit is a class issue? I come from a high income area and family and I know people who espouse the same opinions of Brussels that you seem to think is 'working class'. I know Doctors, Master students and many others voting to leave so your condescending 'cleaning cars' comment is not just disgusting to say but also wildly incorrect.
Myself and my family lose out from Brexit too, we're also largely from London as well but we don't go around saying 'fucking working class plebs' and to be honest, you should know better than to do that given your claimed background.
Your last comment about 'only themselves to blame' is also overwhelmingly ignorant. It really defies belief that you think like this.
I know it's sort of discouraged to bring up a person's post history here,
but on your first page you're promoting your £15 per month payphone deal, and talking about wrasslin'
You're not really convincing me that you're a city-boy "masters of the universe" type.
I think its YouGov's demographics that show it's clearly based on class. That's obviously generalising to an extent and there's other ways you can segment the data, but I think its pretty clear.
ReplacementPelican
Member
I understand this, I was just saying that I know very intelligent people who are voting to leave and rationalize it in their own ways. There isn't a massive class divide here, it's people across the isles who are espousing these beliefs. It's true that profession and social class is in line with leaving or staying however this isn't a 100/0 measure and the C1 social group is only a 10 percent lead to remain, meaning 40% still want to leave the EU. This issue affects people of all ages and social classes.
The shame is that many of us allowed this referendum to even happen. You previously spoke about being a Tory in the thread as such: 'Why try and vote to help people who can turn on you, when you can get on the Tory train and exploit them'.
You've already expressed that you and your friends can't be arsed to vote in the interests of the country as a whole so, really, by voting Tory you've only got yourself to blame for this referendum. We can't have it both ways here. Especially as AB and C1 voted for the Tories by a higher percentage than any other social group but now want to cry foul about 'plebs' because they dislike a potential vote which they've created.
That list is funny.
- Well, yeah, so what? Being "in Europe" is something geographical. Except if you mean "you can easily travel there", but guess what, that's due to the freedom of movement that brings scary foreigners to the UK.
- Yes, that's one way to put it. It's much worse than what the UK currently has (which is already pretty "customised"), but okay, it's tailored.
- So have many countries within the EU? So what?
- Wrong, as already stated. It's quite the opposite. Or do they mean per capita? It doesn't make much sense otherwise.
- Completely wrong. They do have 0% say in those ~80% of EU regulations they have to implement, though.
- Which has exactly what to do with them being in the EU?
Well, and that goes for the rest of the points which are just reiterations.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Too close to call. 'Leave' has been gaining momentum over the last few weeks, and appears to have pulled ahead according to some polls.
Help us, Northern Ireland - you're our only
hope.
Cue why George Osbourne is over there saying they will have to reinstate a border if we vote to leave
BBC did one for our ref,no? Might be mistaken, but I'm sure John Curtice produced one.
ClosingADoor
Member
Luxembourg has an even higher GDP per capita and are in the EU. I'd say stay in! Clearly countries can be compared one-on-one if you just ignore a ton of other factors.
Nicktendo86
Member
Bit of an odd press conference that, Cameron apparently decided to call it after watching the TV last night and journalists were just invited this morning, on top of the Savoy of all places.
Hacks seem to be concluding one thing, he is worried.
Hacks seem to be concluding one thing, he is worried.
Wrestlemania
Banned
I'd be worried too if there was a risk that the lies the leave campaign are peddling are bringing us closer to leaving. They need to be called out for it.
Expats that move before 2020 are ok aren't they?
Yup, the £350 million per week number has been called out as wrong by everyone, including the national statistics board. But I suppose if you ignore that and just keep shouting, it's what works on people who can't be arsed reading and like to repeat soundbites.
Nicktendo86
Member
And yet he refuses to directly debate and refutes the leave points by calling a press conference and answers just one question from the press.
ChubbleDucks
Member
Been to Aldershot lately? hardly any Army left, its all new housing now.
Miles Quaritch
Member
What the hell is he doing. I just don't understand his thinking here. He's coming across as panicking and scrambling around in desperation.
Miles Quaritch
Member
And be known as the PM who made the UK largely irrelevant and set the country on course for years of instability?
Nicktendo86
Member
The problem is Cameron staked this referendum on his reputation. He managed to defy the odds at the General Election, won a majority and has defied the laws of political physics in doing so. He thought he was a popular, well trusted leader and so would cruse this campaign.
Things have not panned out as he planned. Polls show he is less trusted than Boris and people simply do not believe the central point of the remain campaign, that we would be personally worse off if we left.
He has tied the remain campaign to himself and his own popularity which looks to have been a massive error. I still think remain will win personally but not by a huge margin, Cameron needs a big win to put the issue to bed. Things like wheeling out Major on Sunday to personally attack Gove and Boris and hastily arranged press conferences like today really infer that he knows it is going pear shaped.
Things have not panned out as he planned. Polls show he is less trusted than Boris and people simply do not believe the central point of the remain campaign, that we would be personally worse off if we left.
He has tied the remain campaign to himself and his own popularity which looks to have been a massive error. I still think remain will win personally but not by a huge margin, Cameron needs a big win to put the issue to bed. Things like wheeling out Major on Sunday to personally attack Gove and Boris and hastily arranged press conferences like today really infer that he knows it is going pear shaped.
From the polling report:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9706
Still only one phone poll has come out for Leave, so I'm still kind of glad these online polls are coming. Should shake off some of complacency from some remain voters.
This is the most worrying thing to me. Not for leaving the EU, but all elections in the future. He's literally lying everytime he opens his mouth because he keeps saying £350 million no matter how many times he's called out for it, but the general public are too lazy and stupid to realise this. I'm not saying trust either of them, but Boris is such a fucking snake that he should be 0% "mostly honest".
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9706
Still only one phone poll has come out for Leave, so I'm still kind of glad these online polls are coming. Should shake off some of complacency from some remain voters.
This is the most worrying thing to me. Not for leaving the EU, but all elections in the future. He's literally lying everytime he opens his mouth because he keeps saying £350 million no matter how many times he's called out for it, but the general public are too lazy and stupid to realise this. I'm not saying trust either of them, but Boris is such a fucking snake that he should be 0% "mostly honest".
Nicktendo86
Member
In all of the polls the thing that strikes me is the massive amount of undecided, history tells us that at the tail end of a campaign like this there will be a swing to the status quo option and I think many of the undecided will plump for remain.
Then again, if they are still undecided with 2 1/2 weeks left to go, who's to say they will ever make up their minds and bother to vote at all.
Who knows.
Would he really care? Blair is known for making up shit to get a war but he is still a millionaire.
The only way I can see leave winning is if alot of the younger people don't vote. I know of of quite a few that have already said they aren't voting as they see everyone as the same.
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