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Brexit | OT3 | A Feast for Crows

P

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
keep said:
And actually, if you read between the lines of his reply, you can see he is suggesting a solution: he says the EU wants no border at all between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which means NOT LEAVING THE FRIGGING SINGLE MARKET.
Click to expand...

But de facto annexing part of the UK is not a solution...and cross-border trade is less important than you think.

”Unionists will never agree to a border up the middle of the Irish sea, which would be the outworking of Lord Hain's proposal," said Lord Empey.

”85% of Northern Ireland's trade is not with the Irish Republic. Over 60% is with Great Britain. Why on earth would we agree to cut ourselves off from the mainland to protect 15% of our business and put 85% of it at risk? It is simply nonsensical," he said.
Click to expand...

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/trimble-dismisses-hains-call-for-northern-ireland-to-be-in-single-market-with-republic-36101379.html

The only real solution is probably for the entire UK to stay in the EEA and Customs Union long-term. So the only real solution is unlikely.
 
T

theaface

Member
Meanwhile Labour seem to, once again, be doing the befuddling thing of just agreeing with the Tory policy 100% on Brexit. I mean, I get that in doing so in neutralises the subject so they can fight on other areas of policy but as many Labour MPs have rightly stated, to give no air time to the most impactful political situation in most of our lifetimes during their conference seems like madness.

Surely, surely, there's enough real data out there to talk with passion and conviction advocating staying in the single market now? Sure, we haven't left yet and things will get worse in time, but it's not like the rags are teeming with good Brexit news. It feels like an open goal and Labour keep passing the ball back to the keeper.
 
J

jelly

Member
The last throw of the dice is whatever final deal May, Davis etc. get which will no doubt be nothing or way worse than what we have now and when they sell that to Westminster and the people next year, the former need to choose very wisely, do politicians go through with Brexit because 52% of the people who voted said yes or do they think, this isn't good for the UK, voters didn't ask for this, we can't go through with it and do us all a favour and stop Brexit, get down to the issues that have people resorting to throwing the baby out with the bathwater. That's my last hope and expectation.
 
K

keep

Member
jelly said:
The last throw of the dice is whatever final deal May, Davis etc. get which will no doubt be nothing or way worse than what we have now and when they sell that to Westminster and the people next year, the former need to choose very wisely, do politicians go through with Brexit because 52% of the people who voted said yes or do they think, this isn't good for the UK, voters didn't ask for this, we can't go through with it and do us all a favour and stop Brexit, get down to the issues that have people resorting to throwing the baby out with the bathwater. That's my last hope and expectation.
Click to expand...

If Theresa May is still the PM when that happens, I'm 100% convinced she will push for Brexit and whip her party into voting alongside her. She has to, otherwise she will become "the Remainer who pushed ahead to Leave but ended up Remaining at the very last minute". Her legacy is Brexit.

My hope is that the "solution" they work out for Ireland is so fucking terrible (ie: hard border) that the DUP refuses to back her on this vote and she loses her majority.
 
S

SteveWD40

Member
Zaph said:
"Did you not hear May? She said everything will be fine! You're so out of touch"

Feels like the world's gone crazy.
Click to expand...

The sad part is, this is literally what they said, there was no other evidence or context given as to why Moody's were wrong beyond the "word of the all mighty".
 
C

Camp Freddie

Member
So Barnier reveals that in all the negotiations so far, Davis has never raised the issue of a transitional period. What the fuck has he been doing all this time?
Barnier coming down hard on the idea that the EU doesn't need a transitional period and is happy to just let us walk off a cliff. It's us that have requested it, so the EU doesn't need to make concessions over it.

Barnier also confirms what everyone but Davis/Boris know already - if we have a transitional period, we have to apply all EU regulations during that period. We don't get to make up our own rules and still sell our stuff in the single market.
 
J

jelly

Member
It's almost like we don't know what we're doing.

Davis is either a genius dragging this out so we don't leave or a complete incompetent moron.

The EU has all the cards, simple as that. Triggering Article 50 was the UK starting the laser machine themselves.

raw
 
P

Psychotext

Member
Camp Freddie said:
Barnier also confirms what everyone but Davis/Boris know already - if we have a transitional period, we have to apply all EU regulations during that period. We don't get to make up our own rules and still sell our stuff in the single market.
Click to expand...

So basically... 2 extra years in Europe.

imokwiththis.jpg
 
J

jelly

Member
Psychotext said:
So basically... 2 extra years in Europe.

imokwiththis.jpg
Click to expand...

Doesn't that hinge on doing a deal that includes the 2 year transition and I don't hold out much hope for that deal. The EU and UK have to agree something first or they don't but the UK pays 20 billion for 2 years before shit hits the fan. The EU may be cool with them kicking the can down the road as long as the UK accepts everything EU in those years with zero say on anything but the UK need to leave or stay surely and say so next year.
 
S

sechsterangriff

Member
jelly said:
It's almost like we don't know what we're doing.

Davis is either a genius dragging this out so we don't leave or a complete incompetent moron.

The EU has all the cards, simple as that. Triggering Article 50 was the UK starting the laser machine themselves.

raw
Click to expand...
And then the UK went lying on the table and wait for the laser with no shackles. :p
 
F

Fledz

Member
Psychotext said:
So basically... 2 extra years in Europe.

imokwiththis.jpg
Click to expand...

Yes but this is assuming that they'll actually do anything of note in those two years. Judging by what they are doing now, I think the best option is a general election so we can throw someone new at them who might actually treat the EU as a collection of nations governed by adults, rather than a hated rival that they can't wait to distance themselves from.
 
T

theaface

Member
Psychotext said:
So basically... 2 extra years in Europe.

imokwiththis.jpg
Click to expand...

I guess it's preferable to crashing out with no deal in March 2019 but with the way things are going, this seems like little more than an assurance that we'll crash out with no deal in March 2021 instead (though I guess we'll have still have left in 2019 anyway).

I believe this is the 'bargaining' stage of grief.
 
P

Psychotext

Member
Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to spin it as some sort of uptick... it's just not the absolute worst news we could have.

#loweredexpectations
 
O

oti

Banned
T

theaface

Member
oti said:
Sadiq Khan calls for second referendum on Brexit

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...or-labour-conference-latest-a7967691.html?amp
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I couldn't be any more pro-Remain and I sincerely hope the government some how, some way, calls the whole thing off. But, another referendum is not the answer. Hell, it was never the answer to begin with. Lies, distortions, fake news, feelings over facts, obfuscation, false promises, threats - these are not the right tools to guide an already ill-informed electorate.


RedSparrows said:
https://youtu.be/oFceZ0hAAds
Click to expand...

Remoaner saboteur propaganda?
 
C

Camp Freddie

Member
The problem with a "referendum on the final deal" is that it's not clear what a "no deal" vote would mean.
Does it mean going back to the negotiating table? Cancelling Brexit? Crashing out, refusing to pay our debts and attempting to move to WTO rules?
The options available aren't even within our control, since Art.50 doesn't allow us to choose the timetable for our leaving.

I mean, a second referendum might be a good idea, but the options have to be clear. Otherwise it'll be even worse than the first referendum where no one voting for Brexit had any clue what it actually involved.

This could spectacularly backfire if the "no" option is "economic suicide". People like the Lib Dems and Khan would end up campaigning to vote yes on the Tory Brexit plan!
 
S

SteveWD40

Member
Camp Freddie said:
The problem with a "referendum on the final deal" is that it's not clear what a "no deal" vote would mean.
Does it mean going back to the negotiating table? Cancelling Brexit? Crashing out, refusing to pay our debts and attempting to move to WTO rules?
The options available aren't even within our control, since Art.50 doesn't allow us to choose the timetable for our leaving.

I mean, a second referendum might be a good idea, but the options have to be clear. Otherwise it'll be even worse than the first referendum where no one voting for Brexit had any clue what it actually involved.

This could spectacularly backfire if the "no" option is "economic suicide". People like the Lib Dems and Khan would end up campaigning to vote yes on the Tory Brexit plan!
Click to expand...

This is a very good point, and backs up the other posts suggesting that another referendum is actually a bad idea (the media etc... will just lie their arses off since it worked last time).
 
T

theaface

Member
O

Orniletter

Banned
theaface said:
Amazing reply in the comments section...
Click to expand...
I liked this one.
GreatMountainEagle said:
The Wetherspoons Committee of Elders have declared they will boycott Boeing 737s on their coming trips to Benidorm

Brexit voters hitting Boeing where it hurts
Click to expand...
Edit: The comment section is pure gold. Say what you want about the UK, but lack of humor has never been a problem.
 
C

chadskin

Member
Oxford's Reuters Institute released a study on press coverage of the referendum:
The report is based on analysis of two days of press coverage each week for London editions of nine national newspapers over 4 months of the campaign. Of the 2378 articles analysed which were focused on the referendum 41% were pro leave as against 27% pro-remain. Press coverage focused heavily on politicians and campaign spokespeople with relatively little few analysts/experts, academics and foreign politicians cited, and with more attention to personalities and the contest than the issues The press reflected the generally negative tone of the campaign, but the Remain camp’s future focussed messages were the most negative, particularly on the economy, compared to the Leave camp’s more positive tone about a UK outside the EU.
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https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/our-research/uk-press-coverage-eu-referendum
 
B

berzeli

Banned
I don't think that any English source has picked it up:
In an interivew with the Chairman of Astra Zeneca (in Swedish), he more than heavily implied that if the UK leaves in a hard Brexit then Astra Zeneca will move it's R&D and manufacturing to the EU. Now he considers the risk for a hard Brexit to be low, and there are no concrete plans for the move. It still would be quite the blow for the UK if that happened:
  • AstraZeneca directly employs 6,700 staff and supports 30,000 jobs through secondary employment in the UK.
  • In 2011 AstraZeneca contributed £3.8 billion total Gross Value Added to the UK economy and in 2012 the Company accounted for 1.8% (£5.4 billion) of the total UK export of goods.
  • In March 2013 AstraZeneca announced the investment of approximately £330 million in a purpose-built R&D centre and corporate headquarters in Cambridge in the UK.
stolen from their website
Click to expand...
 
J

jelly

Member
I do wonder if companies really believe the UK won't be that stupid with regards to hard Brexit. I like to think that way too but they make it hard. It's no easy decision to move and the government can't give everyone sweet deals. Still wonder what they promised Toyota or whoever it was that they won't admit.
 
P

Psychotext

Member
berzeli said:
I don't think that any English source has picked it up:
In an interivew with the Chairman of Astra Zeneca (in Swedish), he more than heavily implied that if the UK leaves in a hard Brexit then Astra Zeneca will move it's R&D and manufacturing to the EU. Now he considers the risk for a hard Brexit to be low, and there are no concrete plans for the move. It still would be quite the blow for the UK if that happened:
Click to expand...

Fucking hell... and if they go, I wouldn't be surprised to see GSK start thinking about doing the same.
 
B

Blue Lou

Member
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/...-lack-of-sufficient-progress-on-divorce-terms

Progress on EU priorities in the first four rounds of talks with the UK has not been sufficient, says Parliament's draft resolution

The European Council should determine that ”sufficient progress" has not been made on the EU's three key aims - safeguarding EU and UK citizens' rights, clarifying the UK's financial commitments and resolving the Republic of Ireland/Northern Ireland border issue - unless the fifth round of talks delivers a major breakthrough on them, says a draft resolution endorsed by Parliament's Conference of Presidents (EP President and political group leaders) on Thursday.

The motion, drawn up by Parliament's Brexit Steering Group, will be debated and put to a vote by the full house next Tuesday.

Parliament's President Antonio Tajani said "We welcome the constructive approach of Prime Minister May in her recent speech in Florence. The protection of citizens' rights is the absolute priority for the European Parliament. The withdrawal agreement should maintain the full set of rights that citizens currently enjoy, as defined in relevant European Union legislation. Additional guarantees that EU law will be respected until the withdrawal of the UK is a fact are also key to ensuring a rapid conclusion of the first phase of the negotiations."

EP coordinator for Brexit Guy Verhofstadt added: "Prime Minister May opened the door to progress in her speech in Florence on September 22, for example on the role of the European Court of Justice. But we would like to see the UK government provide greater clarity. We are still waiting for answers on vital issues, such as how to keep Northern Ireland in the customs union, or how to find a special arrangement that will prevent a hardening of the border. Regarding citizens' rights and the financial settlement, we are waiting for concrete answers to the proposals made by the EU negotiating team."

Quick facts

Members will debate the motion with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Chief Negotiator on Brexit Michel Barnier on Tuesday. The resolution as voted will set out Parliament's input to the 20 October EU27 summit in Brussels, when government leaders will assess progress in the Brexit negotiations.

Any withdrawal agreement at the end of the UK-EU negotiations will need to win the approval of the European Parliament.
Click to expand...

DRAFT RESOLUTION: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/media/20170928RES84907/20170928RES84907.pdf
 
J

jelly

Member
Is there any answers that work, I think that's the issue. People keep talking collaboration, free trade etc. going around in circles when the UK just have to hop off the crazy train. It's a farse. Am I crazy?
 
C

Camp Freddie

Member
FliXFantatier said:
Sounds about right. Cliff edge it is then.
Click to expand...

Just one example in my line of work...

The European CHemicals Agency (ECHA) have just clarified that the UK will be seen as a 3rd country after Brexit and are actively encouraging everyone to avoid using UK agencies for anything where there's a risk it won't be finished by Brexit day in 2019 (currently theres a complex system of work-sharing and mutual recognition between ECHA in Helsinki and the 28 national regulatory authorities, since no single agency could come close to managing the workload).
Note that most EU evaluations take at least a year unless they're me-too or mutual recognition stuff, so this is pretty much it for serious UK regulatory oversight of chemicals.

All UK chemicals will be treated as 3rd country imports, requiring full customs checks and are not permitted in the EU single market unless registered by an EU agent.

Considering the use of dangerous chemicals in EU-wide manufacturing supply chains, this is a pretty big deal. At best, UK companies would get an EU shell-company to handle the paperwork and ship stuff to a huge EU holding warehouse to avoid customs delays on customer shipments. And since many of these are classed as dangerous goods, storage is not cheap.

No news from the UK on how they'll deal with imports. I guess we'll just mutually recognise all EU chemical approvals despite them not recognising ours. Then also set up an entirely new system to ensure that British-made chemicals can be stored/transported/sold on the British market. Some poor sod is going to have a hell of a time drafting that legislation after the Great Repeal Bill.

We'll probably be in an absurd situation where domestic sellers will have to set up a registration via an agent in the EU and have that mutually recognised back to Britain. Because that'll be cheaper, faster, easier and less uncertain than trying to deal with whatever 'make it up as we go along' domestic approval process is set up in the UK.

Taking back control!
 
C

Chinner

Banned
theres a program on now called brexit reality on c4. not watching because it'll make me rage, but its set in wakefield so i assume its pretty full of old men telling us brexit will make us great again.
 
8

8bit

Knows the Score
Camp Freddie said:
Just one example in my line of work...

The European CHemicals Agency (ECHA) have just clarified that the UK will be seen as a 3rd country after Brexit and are actively encouraging everyone to avoid using UK agencies for anything where there's a risk it won't be finished by Brexit day in 2019 (currently theres a complex system of work-sharing and mutual recognition between ECHA in Helsinki and the 28 national regulatory authorities, since no single agency could come close to managing the workload).
Note that most EU evaluations take at least a year unless they're me-too or mutual recognition stuff, so this is pretty much it for serious UK regulatory oversight of chemicals.

All UK chemicals will be treated as 3rd country imports, requiring full customs checks and are not permitted in the EU single market unless registered by an EU agent.

Considering the use of dangerous chemicals in EU-wide manufacturing supply chains, this is a pretty big deal. At best, UK companies would get an EU shell-company to handle the paperwork and ship stuff to a huge EU holding warehouse to avoid customs delays on customer shipments. And since many of these are classed as dangerous goods, storage is not cheap.

No news from the UK on how they'll deal with imports. I guess we'll just mutually recognise all EU chemical approvals despite them not recognising ours. Then also set up an entirely new system to ensure that British-made chemicals can be stored/transported/sold on the British market. Some poor sod is going to have a hell of a time drafting that legislation after the Great Repeal Bill.

We'll probably be in an absurd situation where domestic sellers will have to set up a registration via an agent in the EU and have that mutually recognised back to Britain. Because that'll be cheaper, faster, easier and less uncertain than trying to deal with whatever 'make it up as we go along' domestic approval process is set up in the UK.

Taking back control!
Click to expand...

Just to piggyback a little on this, I worked in Pharma Regulatory IT for a while after doing Chem Reg IT, there are even more controls and checks there that are currently covered by EU regs that will need to be somehow handled uniquely to the UK now. Without validated (by a yet to be defined agency) agreements there is the potential of drugs currently on market which may be withdrawn by the license holder due to license expiry in the UK. I see you mention the Mutual Recognition aspect, but who is going to recognise these things?
 
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