Because they don't want to upset leave voters and lose their job. Party first, country second. Politicians are scared and would rather send us off a cliff, it's crazy. You would think leave won by a huge margin the way they act. Not everyone voted, it was 52-48 and people changed their mind now. History will not be kind to these people.
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Brexit | OT3 | A Feast for Crows
- Thread starter theaface
- Start date
Because they don't want to upset leave voters and lose their job. Party first, country second. Politicians are scared and would rather send us off a cliff, it's crazy. You would think leave won by a huge margin the way they act. Not everyone voted, it was 52-48 and people changed their mind now. History will not be kind to these people.
KarneeKarnay
Member
It depends on how long this takes to happen. The conservatives have a window of at most 2 years to make any changes they want.
I don't think this will apply after the Brexit
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
There's no significant evidence that enough people sufficient to alter the result have changed their mind yet. I don't know why people keep saying this. It's not true.
It's been clear from literally the morning the result was announced that public opinion had shifted enough that the referendum would go the other way if held again.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
This just isn't true.
Define clear?, surely it's nothing more than anecdotal musings?
I seriously think people still under estimate the hunger for Brexit no matter what the cost.
RedSparrows
Member
Sadly true imo, especially given the way people tend to be happier sticking with a decision, any decision, over faff and talk, unless said decision is so obviously dire. There is enough bluster, obfuscation, doubt and distance to make that realisation unlikely on any massive scale.
Wishful thinking
I would like to think so as well, but then anecdotal evidence / "feelings" had me thinking Remain would win by a decent margin. I have resigned myself to the fact I am a little out of touch, with most of my input being reasonably comfortable people in their 30's in / around Manchester (a Labour stronghold that voted remain).
If there is a shift, I would guess some of it is older people dying (sad but true).
I doubt many have changed their minds. The right wing press and MPs have really doubled down on their rhetoric since the referendum.
What I would expect, as we saw in the General, is that the "I voted Leave for the lolz because I didn't think it would win", "I voted leave to stick it to Cameron" and, even more importantly, the "I didn't bother to vote because what's the point" crowds would turn out for Remain in greater numbers. That could just be enough to swing it.
What I would expect, as we saw in the General, is that the "I voted Leave for the lolz because I didn't think it would win", "I voted leave to stick it to Cameron" and, even more importantly, the "I didn't bother to vote because what's the point" crowds would turn out for Remain in greater numbers. That could just be enough to swing it.
Slightly grim, but probably best if the process is long and drawn out and leads to another referendum.
Also this doesn't taken into account the mobilisation of the younger anti-brexit votenot that they've had a bit of chaos. I'm not sure if the polls would give a good read on the shift. It really depends on who turns out to vote. I could see a situation where many brexiteers have lost their taste for it even if they still are "for" it.
Don't think there's a shift, however if the referendum happened again, I bet a significant chunk of the youth would turn up this time.
There won't be another referendum though. Maybe a 5-10% chance of a final deal one. Depends how bad it hits before that point.
Camp Freddie
Member
It's only past the second reading. It's got a way to go to become law.
The critical part will be the 3rd reading. The labour brexiteers might be going with a strategy of, "I supported the brexit bill and leaving the EU, but the current bill grants too much power to Thersa May and does not provide the safeguards that are vital to my constituents".
If they are in leave-voting areas, they must appear to support brexit (or maybe they actually do) but as an opposition they must also oppose the greatest transfer of unchecked power to a Tory government that their constituents are just as opposed to.
It would be suicide for a labour brexiteer to give carte blanche to the tories on workers' rights and consumer protection laws. Much more so than delaying brexit.
On demographics, I think there has been a small shift to remain. Non voting remainers are more likely to show up and some brexit voters will have been turned off by the fact that they are clearly not getting the Brexit they voted for from Davis.
I doubt it's a big shift, but it only needs a 2% shift.
But there won't be a second referendum unless our government falls apart, we have a new election and Keir Stamer convinces Corbyn that Brexit is suicidal without a further mandate from the people. And the EU somehow agree that they should put a hold on Brexit and allow a repeal of Art.50.
They're all die hard Brexiteers.
The amendments for the EU Withdrawal Bill have been published, and there's 136 of them.
The Labour leadership have put in quite a few, but it's the amendments from what I'm going to dub the gang of nine (Grieve, Clarke, Morgan, Soubry, Sandbach, Hammond, Wollaston, Lefroy and Neill) that are the most dangerous to May. They've put forward amendments that "empower Parliament to control the length and basic terms of transitional arrangements" for the final deal to be "approved by statute passed by parliament" and for ministers to "remove the exclusion of the Charter of Fundamental Rights from retained EU law"
Nine votes is enough to overturn the Tories/DUP majority, iirc. So as long as the opposition vote as one, those amendments can pass.
The Labour leadership have put in quite a few, but it's the amendments from what I'm going to dub the gang of nine (Grieve, Clarke, Morgan, Soubry, Sandbach, Hammond, Wollaston, Lefroy and Neill) that are the most dangerous to May. They've put forward amendments that "empower Parliament to control the length and basic terms of transitional arrangements" for the final deal to be "approved by statute passed by parliament" and for ministers to "remove the exclusion of the Charter of Fundamental Rights from retained EU law"
Nine votes is enough to overturn the Tories/DUP majority, iirc. So as long as the opposition vote as one, those amendments can pass.
Spuck-uk
Banned
Literally the opposite of true.
Psychotext
Member
I used to think this way, then I realised that there are new old people literally every day...
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
I don't know if either position is true. A lot of people have resigned themselves to it happening. That doesn't mean that they would vote in support of it, should the situation arise.
PdotMichael
Banned
It doesn't matter anymore article 50 was triggered and that means no EU membership in 1 1/2 years. UK can only rejoin through article 49 like all other new members.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
What is this bill about?
I thought a bill was already voted on.
I thought a bill was already voted on.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Bills go through various 'readings' in each house of Parliament, which allow for potential amendments and rewritings of the bill. Because this one is such a big deal, we (as a nation) are paying closer attention than usual to the earlier stages.
Looks like Toyota is getting anxious about the deal they made with the government and might drop UK production after all
https://t.co/IQMGVNuvXL?amp=1
https://t.co/IQMGVNuvXL?amp=1
Commander Jameson
Member
I'm guessing that May is not going to walk away first, but make it look like she had no choice but to walk when the EU reject this offer.
This isn't true.
Summarised:
- "Mum, can I have a free trade agreement?"
- "No, not until you've tidied your room and done your chores. Me and your father have been over this."
- "I see..."
SOME TIME LATER
- "Dad, can I have a free trade agreement? Mum said it was OK."
Fuck May and anyone that supports her.
This has been the September plan all along. There was a leak in the Times months ago saying that in September, prior to conference, May would stage an effective walk out of negotiations to look strong and ressurect those Daily Mail front pages she so loves.
It's pathetic. She is continuing Cameron's shittyness of putting internal party politics above everything else. The party simply is not fit for government right now with these dynamics in play, and a leader so cowardly and inept that she can't challenge them.
CanUKlehead
Member
I voted to stay and even I don't believe this is true. I think it's mostly bluster and anecdotes.
Even if there were any concrete numbers suggesting this, that still doesn't guarantee anything after a 're-vote' (which is a terrible idea on its own).
People can say they regret it, but dumbass (not you, poster, the regretters, ha), it wasn't a practise vote. Maybe you shpuld've thought about it.
It'll be interesting to see this play out. I don't underestimate the DM's capacity for unchecked evil but on the other hand, I don't see them blindly championing her with the same zeal as they did before the GE. The 'Iron Lady 2.0' mask seems to have slipped too far to try and argue she's being a "bloody difficult woman" without a snicker.
If it is indeed the same thing from the leak, I'm stunned by the lack of imagination following it being exposed.
Linkstrikesback
Member
"The youth" did turn up the first time. The ratio of young people who turned up was within two percent of all the other working aged groups. Only the retired turned up at any significant rate more than the others.
I see the numbers were revised dramatically.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...eople-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high
Doesn't really make me feel good, just more flames on the 'old people are bringing this on us' fire.
Commander Jameson
Member
CyclopsRock
Member
I know you're being sarcastic but if you think anyone who voted leave would give a shit if you told them that we won't be getting Mutual Recognition Agreements with China, you're mental. The problem here isn't that leave voters were under false illusions about the ease of trade after Brexit, it's that they don't care.
"project fear"
firehawk12
Subete no aware
What did these Leavers expect??
There ain't no getting off this train, no matter how shit it gets.
Project Fear!
The fascinating thing reading this, given that it appears to be quite well informed, is that it's written by someone who thinks we'll be better off outside the EU. He almost sounds like he admires it. If it's the EEA model that's the magical middle ground, ain't it just the biggest shame that all of the high-profile Brexiteers have abandoned that platform (on which they stood pre-referendum).
Director's Note: Mum is still in the room.
You know...as much as I despise Theresa May I'm going to need a better source to believe this. I find it very hard to believe she'd think this is a good strategy.
Even if she wants to do this, it seems too early for it?