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[matthewwhatever]

Yeah, Mainstreet released that strange poll a few days into the campaign that had the Conservatives up around 40, and then a week or two later had them down at 30 or so. I'd be interested in seeing their samples and weighting, since they also had the Conservatives about 10 points higher in Alberta than anyone else.

Meanwhile, Nanos is showing no changes.

So the guy who bombed in BC was Brian Topp (who lost the leadership to Mulcair) but he took the lessons he learned and was head of Notley's campaign.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/this-is-the-campaign-that-jack-built/article24326067/

Topp also was a major part of Layton's campaigns. If he isn't involved in this one that's a major oversight on Mulcair's part (assuming Topp would've been interested -- he was pretty harsh towards Mulcair during the campaign). His message didn't speak to me but it's pretty clear that he and Layton knew how to craft something that resonated with a lot of people.

 

[gabbo]

Topp also was a major part of Layton's campaigns. If he isn't involved in this one that's a major oversight on Mulcair's part (assuming Topp would've been interested -- he was pretty harsh towards Mulcair during the campaign). His message didn't speak to me but it's pretty clear that he and Layton knew how to craft something that resonated with a lot of people.

I was hoping they'd reconcile for that very reason.

 

[Layell]

Oh man I just found out my Consertaive riding candidate posted this stuff on facebook: http://www.pressprogress.ca/conserv...runk_women_latent_homosexuals_and_being_a_man

He isn't even resigning, and is still in the lead shit.

 

[Sakura]

It's true, but not as true. For example, over 50% of voters of both the Liberal Party and NDP would consider voting for the other party. There is much less cross-over between the two progressive parties and the CPC (I think around 23% of Liberal voters would vote CPC, but less than 20% NDP voters). So while they did vote for a single party, they also didn't necessarily vote against another party, in spirit. I understand the point you are trying to make, but realistically we know that the majority of both LPC and NDP voters are comfortable with the other party, and are not with the CPC.

This is true.
But still, at least 5% or more of Liberals etc would likely have CPC as their second choice.
And in Anglo-Canada, in 2011 election, you had about 45% of Ontario and BC voting Conservative, then over 50% of Alberta and the prairies.
Quebec brought the overall vote for the Conservatives down to about 39% or so, but they only won a handful of seats there anyway.
So I think even if people's second choice parties were to count, the Conservatives still could've possibly won last election.

 

[gutter_trash]

Yeah, Mainstreet released that strange poll a few days into the campaign that had the Conservatives up around 40, and then a week or two later had them down at 30 or so. I'd be interested in seeing their samples and weighting, since they also had the Conservatives about 10 points higher in Alberta than anyone else.

Meanwhile, Nanos is showing no changes.



Topp also was a major part of Layton's campaigns. If he isn't involved in this one that's a major oversight on Mulcair's part (assuming Topp would've been interested -- he was pretty harsh towards Mulcair during the campaign). His message didn't speak to me but it's pretty clear that he and Layton knew how to craft something that resonated with a lot of people.

and also Topp was Ed Broadbent's favorite during he leadership race, Broadbent had reservations about Mulcair's true NDPness.

notice that Broadbent has not been pulbic lately has he was when Layton was leader

Closer to a majority: http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/10/new-mainstreet-poll-shows-huge.html




Yes. CPC is leading by 10 points in Ontario according to that poll. It's basically the opposite from Nanos.

Too Close to call has not been updating his seat projection as often as 308.

Too Close to Call has: CPC: 136. LPC: 96. NDP: 105
308 has: CPC: 122, LPC: 118, NDP: 96

 

[whitehawk]

Mainstreet poll numbers: CPC 37%, LPC 29%, NDP 24%.

I have no idea what's happening anymore.

 

[Entropia]

Not really impressed by the Liberal candidates in London; https://www.reddit.com/r/londonontario/comments/3nnhe0/update_liberal_ama/

TL;DR - Liberal candidates in London were going to do an AMA. They confirmed again the day of, and then a couple hours before the AMA was to started they cancelled.

Sadly, voting Liberal is the `smart` thing to do in my riding.

 

[GSG Flash]

Yeah, Mainstreet released that strange poll a few days into the campaign that had the Conservatives up around 40, and then a week or two later had them down at 30 or so. I'd be interested in seeing their samples and weighting, since they also had the Conservatives about 10 points higher in Alberta than anyone else.

Meanwhile, Nanos is showing no changes.



Topp also was a major part of Layton's campaigns. If he isn't involved in this one that's a major oversight on Mulcair's part (assuming Topp would've been interested -- he was pretty harsh towards Mulcair during the campaign). His message didn't speak to me but it's pretty clear that he and Layton knew how to craft something that resonated with a lot of people.

Yeah not sure how much I trust those Mainstreet numbers, especially after looking at the numbers themselves on Mainstreet's website. Seems just way off from the general feeling I'm getting from this election period. They're also from before the last debate, so we'll see what the numbers show when they get fresh numbers.

Mainstreet also had Wildrose leading Alberta less than 2 weeks before the election.

 

[Simon Belmont]

Not really impressed by the Liberal candidates in London; https://www.reddit.com/r/londonontario/comments/3nnhe0/update_liberal_ama/

TL;DR - Liberal candidates in London were going to do an AMA. They confirmed again the day of, and then a couple hours before the AMA was to started they cancelled.

Sadly, voting Liberal is the `smart` thing to do in my riding.

Huh. That's one of my potential MPs.

 

[Silexx]

Yeah not sure how much I trust those Mainstreet numbers, especially after looking at the numbers themselves on Mainstreet's website. Seems just way off from the general feeling I'm getting from this election period. They're also from before the last debate, so we'll see what the numbers show when they get fresh numbers.

Mainstreet also had Wildrose leading Alberta less than 2 weeks before the election.

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/651360433589362688

 

[GSG Flash]

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/651360433589362688

That was 4 days before the election, but less than two weeks before, after the last debate, they had Wildrose leading and the NDP in second and not even close to majority.

 

[Silexx]

That was 4 days before the election, but less than two weeks before, after the last debate, they had Wildrose leading and the NDP in second and not even close to majority.

Certainly plenty of movement can still be had leading up to the election, but we shouldn't dismiss Mainstreet just because they, at some point, had the Wildrose leading.

Which is not to say that they have it right either. Let's just be on guard about which polls we too easily latch on to or dismiss less we find out we were all blinded by confirmation bias.

 

[GSG Flash]

Certainly plenty of movement can still be had leading up to the election, but we shouldn't dismiss Mainstreet just because they, at some point, had the Wildrose leading.

Not dismissing them, just not putting too much of my faith in them either

Especially when there's such a big disparity between their numbers and Nanos.

 

[hydragonwarrior]

The scary thing is that even with an "awakened" voter base for Liberals and NDP, a conservative minority is the best we can do.

Harper used the US Republican strategy well - creating permanent loyal followers all through the years with some irrational decisions to us which are actually great for politics. Like, him getting rid of those scientific research stations? He knew very little of the population would care - and those that did would not have a mouth because he knew it's impossible to explain to the average joe in simple terms would Great Lake research does (like explaining the TPP deal)

I'd still rather we kick the guy out though - he seriously gets away with too much crap.

 

[gutter_trash]

a strong Liberal Party = Liberal government

an average Liberal Party = Conservative minority

a weak Liberal Party = a Conservative majority

a stronger NDP Party than the Liberals = Conservative majority

Canada's best interest is restrengthen the Liberals.

 

[shamanick]

Not really impressed by the Liberal candidates in London; https://www.reddit.com/r/londonontario/comments/3nnhe0/update_liberal_ama/

TL;DR - Liberal candidates in London were going to do an AMA. They confirmed again the day of, and then a couple hours before the AMA was to started they cancelled.

Sadly, voting Liberal is the `smart` thing to do in my riding.

Which riding are you in? I am in North Centre, and I will do whatever it takes (which in this case is vote LPC) to stop those awful Susan Truppe mailers every two weeks. Fuck, I hate her.

 

[DrEvil]

London GAF reporting in. London West.

 

[gutter_trash]

people vote for candidates? pfffff

 

[pr0cs]

I don't believe that if a provincial election was held in Alberta today that NDP would have the same support that they did at the last election.
As it was mentioned you could have put an orange shirt on a dog and they would have still won (there were a number of questionable elected results tbh)
It was a perfect storm for NDP in Alberta, PC was seriously out of favour and Wildrose left a bad taste in people's mouths due to Smith's jump ship to PC.

 

[Tiktaalik]

One interesting thing is that Nanos uses live agents whereas Mainstreet uses IVR (choosing answers using phone buttons). This means that Mainstreet will capture the opinion of more people that may be uncomfortable giving their opinion to a real person. This could explain why Mainstreet has higher Conservative numbers.

 

[Simon Belmont]

London GAF reporting in. London West.

Elgin-Middlesex. Lovely Lambeth.

 

[firehawk12]

a strong Liberal Party = Liberal government

an average Liberal Party = Conservative minority

a weak Liberal Party = a Conservative majority

a stronger NDP Party than the Liberals = Conservative majority

Canada's best interest is restrengthen the Liberals.

As long as the NDP exist though, you can't have a "strong" Liberal party.

 

[maharg]

The important takeaway about the Alberta win is that they unapologetically advocated left wing change. They were confident in their platform and talke.d about those big changes.

Er... no. This is not true. The only wildly left wing plank in the NDP's campaign was an increase in the minimum wage to $15/hr (and even that's spread over several years). They proposed a modest increase to provincial income taxes and a royalty review process that would explicitly include industry voices. Notley also explicitly stated support for pipeline projects. They were, in many ways, arguably more centrist in their campaign than either Stelmach or Redford. They also ran in many ways to the right of the Liberals in that campaign. Compared to previous NDP campaigns in Alberta they were way off to the right.

The NDP won in Alberta by pulling back the radical planks. This has been their strategy in basically every election since Layton. It worked in Alberta for reasons that don't appear to apply elsewhere, but it's definitely what they did. I think people are forgetting just how far to the left the NDP used to be.

 

[CitizenVectron]

a strong Liberal Party = Liberal government

an average Liberal Party = Conservative minority

a weak Liberal Party = a Conservative majority

a stronger NDP Party than the Liberals = Conservative majority

Canada's best interest is restrengthen the Liberals.

Let's clear this up for you since you seem to have a hard time grasping basic math.

It doesn't matter if the NDP or LPC are strong, what matters is how strong the CPC is, and how the vote split works out.

With 39% of the vote in 2011, the CPC got a majority. But if you kept the national numbers the exact same but gave the CPC 100% of the vote in AB/SK and reduced it by the same amount in Ontario, then the Liberals or NDP would have formed government. Or if the CPC had the same amount as they did nationally, but you took, say, 15% of the NDP's vote in QC and moved it to ON, then the NDP may have formed a minority government.

It doesn't matter who is strong than someone else at the national level, the only thing that matters is the regional/local level. The CPC does well because they are very strong in a concentrated number of ridings, while the LPC are weak because they have 20-30% support in a bunch of ridings they can't win. The NDP is somewhere in between (good concentration in QC, not as much elsewhere).

 

[Prax]

That Vice Q&A with Trudeau was really good. I was very impressed by his ability to answer the questions (even with some strategic dodging, which is par for the course, I think). He has passion and vision and also respect for science and evidence.
I'm going to be very disappointed if he's not Prime Minister now because Harper sucks so much.

 

[matthewwhatever]

One interesting thing is that Nanos uses live agents whereas Mainstreet uses IVR (choosing answers using phone buttons). This means that Mainstreet will capture the opinion of more people that may be uncomfortable giving their opinion to a real person. This could explain why Mainstreet has higher Conservative numbers.

If you hear live agent proponents talk, their method means they can capture nuances better and have less room for error in terms of properly sampling people (i.e. they can correctly place people in the right ridings). Not sure how valid it is, but I'm sure different methods all have their supporters and detractors.

 

[CitizenVectron]

As long as the NDP exist though, you can't have a "strong" Liberal party.

And vice-versa too. I guess you could have a stronger LPC if they decided to shift to the right though, and the CPC was weaker. But that's quite unlikely. the LPC and PC parties used to trade a large number of votes, the LPC and CPC don't tend to since the CPC moved further right.

 

[Divvy]

Jesus, I don't understand how the Cons are pulling ahead this much. Do I have too much faith in Canadians? Is that niqab thing such a big issue for these idiots?

 

[Bisnic]

Jesus, I don't understand how the Cons are pulling ahead this much. Do I have too much faith in Canadians? Is that niqab thing such a big issue for these idiots?

Funny(or sad?) how it went from "a very small number of women don't want to show their face for a ceremony" to "THEY'RE GOING TO FORCE OUR WOMEN TO WEAR NIQAB. VOTE CONSERVATIVE FOR EQUAL RIGHTS." to too many people.

 

[Divvy]

I just don't get it. I just feel really out of touch with the country I guess.

I guess I just need to remember that it's a minority that think that way, and we're just getting fucked over by FPTP

 

[Entropia]

Which riding are you in? I am in North Centre, and I will do whatever it takes (which in this case is vote LPC) to stop those awful Susan Truppe mailers every two weeks. Fuck, I hate her.

London GAF reporting in. London West.

Elgin-Middlesex. Lovely Lambeth.

London West here.

Spoiler

4 of us, I'm surprised!

 

[LakeEarth]

Which riding are you in? I am in North Centre, and I will do whatever it takes (which in this case is vote LPC) to stop those awful Susan Truppe mailers every two weeks. Fuck, I hate her.

London North here as well! Did anyone else notice that some of Susan Truppe's signs say "elect" even though she's the incumbent? Printing error or savy political strategy I don't fully understand?

 

[DreamMachine]

Jesus, I don't understand how the Cons are pulling ahead this much. Do I have too much faith in Canadians? Is that niqab thing such a big issue for these idiots?

My theory is demographics never before has there been more older people then there is now and they overwhelmingly vote conservative.

 

[Prax]

^ I hope I don't end up voting conservative in my old age because I become a paranoid status quo embracing fool.

This is so disheartening. I hope the liberals pick up more momentum somehow.

 

[shadowkat]

My theory is demographics never before has there been more older people then there is now and they overwhelmingly vote conservative.

Baby boomers ruining it for everyone.

 

[pr0cs]

Or maybe people just don't believe the other parties are capable of improving people's prosperity.
There are a lot of reasons outside of "old people "

 

[TheRealTalker]

My theory is demographics never before has there been more older people then there is now and they overwhelmingly vote conservative.

I agree with this... there seems to be too many conservative old people then old reformist and left

that and a bunch of ignorant people that don't know what Harper is taking from them but fear (due to the press) the horrible scary niqab

 

[Silexx]

^ I hope I don't end up voting conservative in my old age because I become a paranoid status quo embracing fool.

This is so disheartening. I hope the liberals pick up more momentum somehow.

Jeet Heer wrote a pretty good twitter essay about how the Conservatives seem to be adopting something akin to the Republicans' Southern Strategy where these dog-whistle politics may benefit them in the short term, may very well end up tarnishing their brand in the long term for an entire generation.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

Mainstreet poll numbers: CPC 37%, LPC 29%, NDP 24%.

A government elected on racism and bigotry. I just got back from the amazing weather down in Orlando and these numbers get me thinking "why am I even here?". Shitty weather, shitty economy, and now shitty racist people? Yikes.

 

[firehawk12]

I remembered why I stopped listening to political shows. The MPs are horrible because they are so media trained and just barf out their talking points.

 

[BigJonsson]

We'll see which polls are correct come E-day

 

[Sakura]

One interesting thing is that Nanos uses live agents whereas Mainstreet uses IVR (choosing answers using phone buttons). This means that Mainstreet will capture the opinion of more people that may be uncomfortable giving their opinion to a real person. This could explain why Mainstreet has higher Conservative numbers.

I wonder if there is data on which has been more accurate in previous elections.

 

[MMarston]

Curious for anyone voting for Conservative but would rather not have Harper anymore...



Who would be an ideal replacement for him, in your opinion?



edit: this is also especially with past reports that this will likely be his last term if he wins again

 

[maharg]

I wonder if there is data on which has been more accurate in previous elections.

I couldn't find anything specific from fivethirtyeight on this in a quick search, but they consider live callers to be essential for 'gold standard polls': http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-bad-pollsters-copying-good-pollsters/

Note, though, that I'm pretty sure no Canadian polls would meet all their requirements (primarily because the lack of raw data release, and only a couple of them use live callers).

 

[Pedrito]

Like heroes, the Cons are stopping the planned dumping of wastewater into the St. Lawrence in Montreal. They want more information. I fully expect them to be satisfied wih said new information on October 20 and give the go ahead.

 

[UberTag]

We'll see which polls are correct come E-day

I think we're in for a rude awakening in a couple weeks. And nothing short of half the nation storming Parliament Hill post-election will change anything.
And I don't see that happening, either. Instead it'll be "Go Jays Go!"

 

[Razorskin]

Like heroes, the Cons are stopping the planned dumping of wastewater into the St. Lawrence in Montreal. They want more information. I fully expect them to be satisfied wih said new information on October 20 and give the go ahead.

I've swam in the St. Lawrence in my youth more times than I care to admit.

 

[thelatestmodel]

edit: this is also especially with past reports that this will likely be his last term if he wins again

No doubt, I'm gonna assemble a group of adventurers to find and destroy his phylactery.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

Like heroes, the Cons are stopping the planned dumping of wastewater into the St. Lawrence in Montreal. They want more information. I fully expect them to be satisfied wih said new information on October 20 and give the go ahead.

Can't the provincial government block it?

 

[CitizenVectron]

Not that I support it, but I think if the CPC wins a majority this time around again, we're going to hear talk of a "unite the left" movement. I don't think it would happen before the next election because the LPC will give Trudeau another try, but if the CPC won the following one again, then I think it would guarantee the movement would succeed.