Really, I get the strong sense the electorate hates Mulcair than Harper, the numbers back me up too.
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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Really, I get the strong sense the electorate hates Mulcair than Harper, the numbers back me up too.
That was good. I really hope the liberals win.
CitizenVectron
Member
Well, the NDP even getting 35% of the vote in QC could net them 75% of the seats.
All said and done though, I have huge respect for Trudeau for getting the libs where they are now.
Going from horrible percentages in the last election to competitive ones here is great regardless of the outcome.
Yeah, I know what you mean. Percentages mean surprisingly little in these elections. Vote percentages aren't really the same as seat percentages.
Going from horrible percentages in the last election to competitive ones here is great regardless of the outcome.
Yeah, I know what you mean. Percentages mean surprisingly little in these elections. Vote percentages aren't really the same as seat percentages.
What numbers are those? Most of the Liberal boost was at the expense of the NDP, but there's nothing to suggest that they would prefer Harper over Mulcair if Trudeau is not PM, the opposite actually considering Harper's abysmal approval rating.
CitizenVectron
Member
No, they actually generally like Mulcair. His personal numbers (character, charisma, friendliness, gravitas, etc) have all been high in the polls until the last few weeks.
Thinks the NDP is a joke instead.
GuessMyUserName
Member
That's not how Canadian elections work.
gutter_trash
Banned
friendliness? he was the most condescending and snide during the debates
It's somehow how it appears to work concerning the tories right? I fucking hate their policies but the only thing worse is the shrill whining about how the majority rejected them as though it weren't true for their own parties.
gutter_trash
Banned
oh man, this hurts more than a shitty poll
Sakura
Member
Theoretically they could, but that wouldn't happen.
They wouldn't shoot down all the bills unless there was large public backlash against all the bills. Shooting down bills that have things people want will make you look like a bad guy, and doing it to everything just because, ignoring the conservatives, etc would just make you look like a bully (Canadians generally seem to side with the team being picked on) and could lead to stronger Conservative results in the next election.
One thing to keep in mind, is online communities are not very representative of the overall populace. Take GAF for example. If the people who post in Canadian politic threads here were representative of the overall Canadian population, the results in the last election probably would've been like 5% Conservative, 95% Liberal/NDP. Many online communities seem to be more left leaning than average, so you will see a strong bias against the Conservatives.
Provincial legislatures, and even the legislature of the united kingdom, form a part of the precedent basis for parliament. They would certainly be considered in any decision on what would happen if Harper lost his first confidence motion.
Whatever the results turn out to be on the 19th, I'm gonna feel pretty bad for the NDP if the polling stuff turns out to stick until then.
Like, they were legitimately getting somewhere in 2011. They could be potentially heading back to square 1.
Like, they were legitimately getting somewhere in 2011. They could be potentially heading back to square 1.
The Green Party definitely seems to have a notable presence here in Victoria, though whether it's enough to get them another seat, I guess we'll see.
I couldn't help it.
all those guys seem like they could be in the background of any SNL skit
killer rin
Member
At the minimum the Greens will keep Elizabeth Mays seat. What will probably happen is they will keep their two seats in parliament, and possibly pick up a couple more if they are lucky.
CitizenVectron
Member
It's true, but not as true. For example, over 50% of voters of both the Liberal Party and NDP would consider voting for the other party. There is much less cross-over between the two progressive parties and the CPC (I think around 23% of Liberal voters would vote CPC, but less than 20% NDP voters). So while they did vote for a single party, they also didn't necessarily vote against another party, in spirit. I understand the point you are trying to make, but realistically we know that the majority of both LPC and NDP voters are comfortable with the other party, and are not with the CPC.
I think they gambled wrong by letting Mulcair be Lawman Layton. They should have let him just be angry all the time.
It says that it took place from 6:30 to 7:30 EST but the video is only 30 minutes and seemingly starts in the middle. Did I actually miss almost half of it or is the other half of the archive somewhere?
Still a good watch.
EDIT: Also I'm glad you made that edit, mailbox. Made me chuckle.
Thank you, that's all i even asked for :3
UberTag
Member
Jack Layton was special.
Thomas Mulcair... not so much.
UberTag
Member
He'd be our next prime minister. There's no doubt in my mind.
I have a few differences from you. In general I don't think there's a lot of swing voters around, so I’m a bit more skeptical about how much ridings are willing to switch from Conservative to Liberal. As well I think the Conservatives will continue to do pretty well in rural areas. We have to remember as well that the Liberals have been shut out of a lot of seats here for quite some time, and their organizational ability may be affected. The biggest unknown here is how much a Liberal red wave may impact ABC voters that are in strong NDP ridings. Will they stay put with the NDP or will there be vote splitting?
Conservative
Same as yours plus
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
South-Surrey White Rock
I’ve said before that the 308/StrategicVoting estimates for this riding has no basis in reality and I stand firm by that. I haven’t seen any explanation for why Grenier thinks White Rock is going to switch from being a Conservative stronghold. There simply hasn’t been that substantial of demographic change. I can only assume that Grenier has been smoking some of that BC bud.
Liberal
North Vancouver
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South
NDP
same.
Green
same.
BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
Leaning Conservative
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo
Kootenay—Columbia
A rising Liberal party is only going to make it tougher for the NDP to win these seats from the Conservatives.
Steveston—Richmond East
I’m going to give the Conservatives the slight edge here because there were apparently some shenanigans at the Liberal nomination process and so there could be some pissed off people that will stay home. This riding could definitely go Liberal though.
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
The Liberals have rhetorically attacked the One Percent quite a bit this election, and this riding is full of One Percenters. Once upon a time this riding may have gone Liberal, but the Conservatives have done better and better over time and I think they’ll hold it.
Delta
Basically the same complaint against 308 as with White Rock, but there has been some demographic change here, and the riding redistribution makes it more likely to vote left. The NDP were somewhat competitive if you redistribute 2011 results, but assuming Liberals are going to have the momentum they could be the more serious challenger. I still think it'll go Conservative.
Leaning Liberal
Richmond Centre
If some of those polls are to be believed that the Lower Mainland’s Asian community is turning away from the Conservatives, then this would be a riding that could definitely switch to the Liberals.
Leaning NDP
Same
Too Close to Call (my soft prediction in brackets)
Burnaby North—Seymour (NDP)
Fleetwood—Port Kells (Conservative)
If the NDP was doing very well I’d confidently put these all in the NDP column, but with the Liberals having momentum, it’s possible that some vote splits could occur and the Conservatives could take both of these. Burnaby North has been an NDP stronghold since the dawn of time, so I have a lot of trouble believing they'd switch Liberal for any reason.
Surrey Centre (Liberal)
Surrey—Newton (Liberal)
These ones are always pretty close races between the NDP and Liberals. If the Liberal momentum we're seeing in Ontario carries over to BC, then these could certainly go Liberal. I really don't know anything about North Surrey though so I could be totally wrong.
Vancouver Granville (Liberal)
Absolutely anything could happen in this riding. If there’s one riding where ABC voters could pull it to Liberal it’s this one. This is also in one of the richest areas of Vancouver with plenty of Conservative support, so there could also be a slight vote split and an easy Conservative win. It’s really going to come down to whichever party has the best ground game.
I'm expecting this will go Liberal come election time, but if this election were held tomorrow I'd wager it would actually go NDP. I live close to this riding so I drive through it often. If I were to judge from lawn signs it’s NDP >>> Conservative >> Liberal. There was also a local poll that had the NDP ahead by 6%, which I’m sure the local NDP organization has been showing to everyone they can find.
If we continue to see strong Liberal momentum throughout the country however, and it carries strongly into Vancouver, then I could really easily see this one going Liberal. Total dice roll on this one in general.
Totals
(Party, Safe Seats, With Leaning)
Con: 12 {17}
NDP: 8 {13}
Lib: 4 {5}
Grn: 1
Undecided: 5
We could be looking at Cons 18, NDP 14 and Libs 8. This may look like I'm being overly harsh against the Liberals here, but the Liberals have been weak for years and since 2006 the NDP and Conservatives have split BC between them and become very intrenched. There are some NDP ridings that demographically might be a better fit for the Liberals, but the Liberals have been so weak for so long I think they may need more than one election cycle to be able to become competitive in some ridings. Given that so many left wing voters are focused on defeating Harper, I'm not really sure why an ABC voter in an NDP riding would switch their vote away from the incumbent, so I expect the NDP will hold what they have. BC is not like Ontario. It is more in extreme in its politics and my feeling is that there are not as many swing voters that will consider switching from the Conservative to something else.
For reference last election:
Con: 21
NDP: 12
Lib: 2
Grn: 1
Edit: Obviously this is with the polls as they are now... with Nanos's low Conservative support in BC being an outlier. If that trend is confirmed and things get worse for the Conservatives then I'd reevaluate this prediction.
They aren't going to revert to pre 2011 levels at this point(I don't think they are guaranteed to get less than 70 seats at this point) . I do think they need to figure out went wrong and fix it for next time.I'm not sure if Mulcair will stay as party leader if they lose this election and lose like 20+ seats.
The Vice link split the live stream into three videos. It looks like the first part sets up some of the questions that will be asked of Trudeau by reviewing previous Vice stories in vice1, and Trudeau is in vice2 and vice3. Click the left and right white arrows in the video window to jump to the other parts.
They need to fire all their campaign people as that group have now lost the Ontario election and BC election as well. The Alberta PCs were so terrible that you could have dressed up a dog in an orange shirt and he'd have won an NDP seat, so I'm not going to really give them much for that victory.
The BC one should have been a slam dunk as people hate the BC Liberals, but what do you know the BC NDP campaigned on "change, one cautious boring step at a time" and lost badly to Christy Clark's exciting (and absurdly unrealistic) pie in the sky LNG promises.
Hmm reminds me of this election...
This is pure revisionism. The NDP ran a fantastic campaign in Alberta and Notley connected well with voters. They did what no one's done in over 40 fucking years. They deserve that credit. Prentice wouldn't have even been at the bottom of PC premiers to win in Alberta if he had.
It doesn't mean that the same campaign would have worked federally, but they earned the Alberta win.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Ontario is toxic for the NDP anyway. Outside of the labour areas, which are slowly diminishing as unions like the CAW continue to shrink, provincially people keep invoking Bob Rae as what could go wrong here.
Random thought:
If Mulcair wants to hold onto his Vancouver seats he should announce that his government would fund the new Vancouver Art Gallery expansion.
That thing needs a huge amount of federal funds, and it is never going to get built under the Conservatives. Locals are deeply skeptical whether the project will get off the ground.
If Mulcair wants to hold onto his Vancouver seats he should announce that his government would fund the new Vancouver Art Gallery expansion.
That thing needs a huge amount of federal funds, and it is never going to get built under the Conservatives. Locals are deeply skeptical whether the project will get off the ground.
Notley's campaign was amazing. It was even more amazing because the Alberta PC's were to weak to pose a challenge.
I don't want to take away from the great job that Notley did here. They wouldn't have won without her and the fantastic performance she had at the debates.
The important takeaway about the Alberta win is that they unapologetically advocated left wing change. They were confident in their platform and talked about those big changes.
In contrast with the current federal campaign, the NDP do have a lot of really significant change items in their platform, several that would significantly remake Canada, but they shied away from emphasizing it, and instead talked about fiscal responsibility, lowering small business taxes etc.
So the guy who bombed in BC was Brian Topp (who lost the leadership to Mulcair) but he took the lessons he learned and was head of Notley's campaign.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/this-is-the-campaign-that-jack-built/article24326067/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/this-is-the-campaign-that-jack-built/article24326067/
Ok I'm wrong. I completely take back my criticism of the Alberta NDP campaign because the more I think of it the BC NDP were really in the same fantastic situation as the Alberta NDP, with a rival party hated by the general public, and the BC NDP still bombed so hard. Obviously the Alberta NDP team did something right.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I'm going to go ahead and say neither of these are true. Provincial elections are mechanically different than federal elections, and precedent from the British parliament comes from before confederation. That's all fine and good, but there have been at least two failed coalition attempts at the federal level since then, which constitute a much stronger precedent.
dragonfart28
Banned
They were not the other parties.
dragonfart28
Banned
What would this look like terms of seats?
is this Canada-wide....?
Closer to a majority: http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/10/new-mainstreet-poll-shows-huge.html
Yes. CPC is leading by 10 points in Ontario according to that poll. It's basically the opposite from Nanos.
Yeah, quite different numbers from both those groups. I really fucking hope mainstreet is off big time
dragonfart28
Banned
153 seats for them means it's still far enough out that the others could still handily stop Harper.
I still think that Mainstreet exaggerates the CPC.
This isn't the first time they've been the outlier in Harper's favour.
I still think that Mainstreet exaggerates the CPC.
This isn't the first time they've been the outlier in Harper's favour.
It heavily depends on where in Ontario they polled as well. I've said from the beginning that national-level polls are 100% useless. We need a robust regional polling system if we want a consistent and reliable set of data.
There chances of the CPC being 10% up in Ontario is very improbable. There has been zero evidence of a groundswell of support, even at a campaign level.
There chances of the CPC being 10% up in Ontario is very improbable. There has been zero evidence of a groundswell of support, even at a campaign level.
eBay Huckster
Member
reminder: earlier in the campaign, as their first poll of this season, mainstreet released an equally bizarre outlier.
it happens. don't handwring about it, this isn't american poligaf.
it happens. don't handwring about it, this isn't american poligaf.
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