firehawk12
Subete no aware
Gotta learn Swedish first. Or was that Finland. One of them requires a language test anyway. lol
Maybe we can convince NordicGAF members to marry us and help us get Swedish green cards.
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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Maybe we can convince NordicGAF members to marry us and help us get Swedish green cards.
gutter_trash
Banned
take into account the CPC support is concentrated in key QC regions while the NDP is spread out.
You can have a region that has high CPC support that will translate into fewer seats while the NDP support is spread out that can translate into 40+ ridings.
Like Max Bernier in Beauce, his region is supper Credististe Conservative but they elect one MP.
the Conservative ceiling is 12 to 13 seats in Quebec. (elected 5 in 2011)
While the Liberals take away many Urban populated Montreal ridings whos' seat count doubles the Conservatives in Qc.
Just got a notifcation on my phone....for this.
Niqab ban for public servants would be considered: Stephen Harper
I have family there so I'll my marry my cousin or something.
Niqab ban for public servants would be considered: Stephen Harper
God save this country. And thank you, Mr. Trudeau.
This is my concern as well. Obviously PR is the most fair way to do things but different parties have different motivations. Azih has said that a lot of Liberal MPs are in support of it but I'm pretty sure Trudeau can just have them all silenced and switch to the Australian system (which is said to be similar to FPTP). I guess this would not be possible with a Liberal minority but then again, I could see the Conservatives voting with the Liberals on it since it keeps the status quo, which is good for both parties... This is why I am feeling very apathetic at this point since the NDP is dead and I'm pretty sure PR died with them.
Hahaha! Sweden is about receive a large shipment of Canadians after this election.
I will be a part of it.
Gotta learn Swedish first. Or was that Finland. One of them requires a language test anyway. lol
Maybe we can convince NordicGAF members to marry us and help us get Swedish green cards.
I have family there so I'll my marry my cousin or something.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Marry your cousin, get a divorce, then marry us one at at time. Sounds like a plan!
UberTag
Member
Win or lose, Lynton Crosby's attack on the NDP has destroyed the hope for PR to be introduced any time in this country's future and that's a victory that both the Conservatives AND Liberals can be proud of. Fuck them both. (I'm still voting Liberal in two weeks.)
They don't have momentum. They never did. We're screwed in 13 days and you had best prepare for it now... or watch the Blue Jays and happily ignore the inevitable outcome.
Gotta learn Swedish first. Or was that Finland. One of them requires a language test anyway. lol
Maybe we can convince NordicGAF members to marry us and help us get Swedish green cards.
Pretty sure those countries, including Norway and others, are pretty difficult to immigrate to. Their government and population aren't afraid to step on toes and crush entitlement to maintain the status quo. Although Sweden would be cool, I don't feel like it's my god given right to live there, contrary to how some feel about Canada.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Harper wins the same time that the Jays are eliminated. Seems like the perfect October surprise.
Look on the bright side, you have an escape route after October 19!
matthewwhatever
Member
When the Syrian refugee story hit, someone at my work said that the attitude he'd seen a lot of was "On the boat, cut the rope".
Yep, Poilievre floated this last week, too.
I posted Ipsos yesterday, didn't I -- 33 CPC/32 LPC/26 NDP? As for Ekos, Potato posted the horserace numbers, but here are a few images:
He still has the Greens a few points above anyone else.
Atlantic Canada is almost at the point of being the Liberals' Alberta. That's one seriously impressive lead.
This is why I'm less questioning of Ekos than I was a few weeks who -- not because it's better for the Liberals (which I do like), but because it has the Liberals beating the Conservatives among women. The CPC usually does worse among women then among men, so for Ekos to be showing the opposite made me skeptical.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
So we have older men to blame for this!!!
killer rin
Member
So we're pretty much Moderate Conservative Minority Territory?
I do wonder what these numbers would turn into seat-wise though, I'm assuming
Atlantic Canada will go mostly Liberals
Quebec, despite their numbers will likely get half the seats because of distribution
Ontario will split evenly Conservative and Liberals with a sprinkle of NDP
Praries will go Conservative with a sprinkle of NDP or Liberal
BC will go Conservative in the interior, NDP/Liberal in the cities and 2-4 Green.
CitizenVectron
Member
I know you're being facetious, but that's basically correct. Older men and high school-educated men are the Conservative base, largely.
In grade 11, we had some school project where we had to go and poll everyone around the school for which party they would vote for if there were an election. The students were overwhelmingly NDP/Liberal and the staff were the same. There was one encounter that stuck out to me. I went to poll the school janitor (old white man) and he said he would vote Conservative. He explained his reason and it was something about a gun registry. It was in the afternoon and what he was saying made me a little uncomfortable so I kind of zoned out. While he was talking, I noticed a strong smell coming from his mouth. Several years later, I discovered that this was the smell of alcohol.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I feel like I knew what alcohol smelled like by the time I was in the 6th grade, but my family are drinkers.
CitizenVectron
Member
Assuming that the Ekos numbers are true, it would still likely mean that the NDP take over 50% of the seats in QC as most of the CPC and LPC support is concentrated in fewer seats (CPC in Quebec City and regions, and LPC in Montreal). The Bloc would likely pick up 3-5 seats as well, maybe more. Vote splitting may work to the NDP's advantage in QC.
In BC you'd likely see the NDP and LPC take roughly equal amounts, with the CPC taking less (but still a decent amount). In AB they'll take the same as 2011, but since there are more seats you will see some go LPC and NDP.
In SK you'll see the NDP pick up a few, and the CPC will win most (with 1 LPC). So maybe 3 NDP, 1 LPC, and 9-10 CPC. Not sure of MB, but looks like a few more LPC seats than last time in Winnipeg.
In ON you will see the LPC pick up 25-35 more seats than last time, and the NDP will likely stay roughly where they were before, but the CPC will still take more seats than anyone else. In Atlantic Canada you'll see the LPC take most of them.
Probably 135-150 seats for the CPC at the 35% mark.
Wow. Just wow.I seriously hope they were using this as an example and the CPC doesn't try to tar Mulcair if they create an ad that mentions this.
I also found this.I think what this candidate said is a bit ridiculous and most likely false.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/emmaloop/th...absorb-the-oil?utm_term=.mhX9mpXvl#.bqGmqewGE
A high profile CPC candidate in Quebec is also bragging about taking the most expensive flights now.
http://conservativepartycanada.ca/2...ive-flight-of-the-whole-conservative-cabinet/
Shalashaska161
Member
The niqab issue is fucking embarrassing. I can't believe it's something that can even be brought up, let alone actually influence voting.
I live in the prairies and I can't really explain it. I think the reason why Manitoba looks so blue is because of rural areas and Brandon. IIRC, Winnipeg is mostly Liberal/NDP.
I'm Muslim so it is forbidden. I learned the smell years later with a homeless guy on the bus or something when my friend told me it was alcohol.
Simon Belmont
Banned
Makes sense. It's definitely a good smell to be aware of.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
It's pretty sad that after all this bullshit, Conservatives only manage to lose 4% in popular vote compared to last time.
Im really hoping all these polls are completely wrong.
Im really hoping all these polls are completely wrong.
UberTag
Member
Fucking embarrassing is putting it mildly. Just let people wear whatever they want to wear. They're not harming anybody. And politicizing it? Ugh.
I've been done for the past week and have accepted a Conservative win. My question is minority or majority. If it is majority, RIP Canada, it's been good. If it is a minority, I will be watching what the opposition parties do with great interest.
CitizenVectron
Member
Rural AB, SK, and MB vote Conservative because the Conservatives identify as a "values" party, and rural Canadians tend to see themselves as people with traditional values. They are less likely to have university education. They tend to be more fearful of outsiders, homogeneous, church-going, and of lower income. This group used to vote NDP as the western protest vote, and then switched to Reform, and now to the CPC. Now that they've voted CPC a few times they are likely to stay that way (as most people do after voting for a party a few times).
In the cities of Regina and Saskatoon the vote tends to lean NDP with some Liberal as well (more so in Regina). Of the 7 urban ridings in this election (4 Saskatoon, 3 Regina) you're likely going to see 3-4 NDP, 1 LPC, and 2-3 CPC). The north of SK will also likely go NDP or maybe LPC due to the aboriginal vote generally going against the CPC.
In the cities of Regina and Saskatoon the vote tends to lean NDP with some Liberal as well (more so in Regina). Of the 7 urban ridings in this election (4 Saskatoon, 3 Regina) you're likely going to see 3-4 NDP, 1 LPC, and 2-3 CPC). The north of SK will also likely go NDP or maybe LPC due to the aboriginal vote generally going against the CPC.
CitizenVectron
Member
To be fair, people thought the US was "done" after Bush won his second term. But Obama has started to undo a lot of things Bush did. And Chretien/Martin undid a lot that Mulroney did too, etc. No matter how much Harper does, the following Liberal government (or maybe NDP, though less likely if they come in 3rd this time) will undo a lot of it.
Even if the CPC wins this election it's pretty much downhill for them after this election. Eventually they will burn enough people that it will be almost impossible or very hard for them to win elections anymore like what happened with the PC party like 20 years ago and the republicans in the US unless they change directions significantly.
What happened to the PC 20 years ago?
eBay Huckster
Member
essentially: Mulroney spread the party too thin trying to appeal to too many disparate groups, and this combined with the disaster that was their 1993 campaign (as well as a few other factors, like the GST's implementation and the recession of the early '90s) to basically annihilate the PCs
I think it's a pissing match and I'm not sure why anyone is surprised that Harper would run with this. I'm still not entirely convinced either way. As Divvy said in another thread, it's not law. I'm torn between why the government would waste time on something that doesn't impact the average citizens day to day life if someone covers their face during the oath. On the other hand, I always remove my hat during the national anthem. It's not law, but it's something that respectful citizens seem to do, and I think the oath is very much in the same vein. It just comes off to me as entitlement to not comply with a request during a citizenship oath (to an amazing country) and never have to deal with it again. I would do terrible, awful shit to get Canadian citizenship. This just doesn't seem like a big deal either way. I sincerely hope that a separate law isn't required for each and every facet of day to day life in Canada so that people will be respectful to the country.
Does it explicitly say in any religious texts that this is the case?
In the 1993 election they dropped like 152 seats to 2 seats. It literally took years of pissing people off for them to get that many seats. In the areas they were strong in like Quebec. they lost those areas completely to other parties like the BQ, LPC and Reform. Kim campbell didn't really help the PC party either and their actual campaign in 1993 was a disaster. They also mocked the Liberal leader personally in an ad during the campaign and they burned even more support.External factors like the 1990 recession hurt them also.There is a chance that a PC style collapse or a collapse to pre-2004 levels could be in the CPC's future.
gutter_trash
Banned
imagine going from Super Majorities in both 1984 an 1988 then get reduced to 2 seats in 1993
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
We really are a minority here; most people don't follow politics at all and only vote for the person they "like" the most. Look likeable, say what people want to hear, have some catchy slogans, and you're done.
Conservatives have easy to understand promises: protect you from the dangerous baddies, protect the canadian traditions from those weird foreigners who want to have things their way, and a STRONG economy which means more money in your pockets.
The other parties' positions are not as easy to summarize or as "striking", so it sticks less with the uninformed population.
Conservatives have the best "marketing" skills, and that's all they needed. Their Australian strategist must have helped too: I guess this niqab storm in a teacup must come from him.
I wish I wasn't that cynical.
CitizenVectron
Member
No, but it also doesn't say that Christians must wear crucifixes or take time off for Christmas, etc, but those are also considered religious rights.
UberTag
Member
It'll be a golden day for the beer stores. Especially if the Jays get bounced around the same time.
Just consider it a fitting capper for Oktoberfest and plan to call in sick for work the next day thanks to the inevitable hangover.
We really are a minority here; most people don't follow politics at all and only vote for the person they "like" the most. Look likeable, say what people want to hear, have some catchy slogans, and you're done.
Conservatives have easy to understand promises: protect you from the dangerous baddies, protect the canadian traditions from those weird foreigners who want to have things their way, and a STRONG economy which means more money in your pockets.
The other parties' positions are not as easy to summarize or as "striking", so it sticks less with the uninformed population.
Conservatives have the best "marketing" skills, and that's all they needed. Their Australian strategist must have helped too: I guess this niqab storm in a teacup must come from him.
I wish I wasn't that cynical.
LESS TAXES
People hear that and it makes them stupid.
I'm atheist, so you're preaching to the choir (lol). There is a crazy amount of religious shit that is tolerated but isn't documented or proven to be the specific wishes of the deity. Also helps that the majority of Canadians are Christian. I wonder which religion supports Harper the most?
CitizenVectron
Member
Let's say that Quebec does end up dumping the NDP and the Block win 10 seats and the CPC win 10-12 as well, getting a majority, all over the niqab issue. So what happens when the issue is firmly decided by the Supreme Court against Harper and they rule a person can wear them wherever they want, including ceremonies, court, workplace, etc? Will Quebec regret putting a Conservative government back in power?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/can...-candidate-jagdish-grewal-gay-youth-1.3259324
Wow this is pretty disgusting.
Wow this is pretty disgusting.
UberTag
Member
On the bright side, he has little to no chance of prevailing in that riding. Liberals should take it in a walk.
I can't believe it. /s
Won't the Conservative supporters be confused on this matter?
CitizenVectron
Member
Back in 2004 this is what kept the CPC out of power...but now people are used to it I guess.
They probably won't even notice.
The Last Emperor
Member
Lol that's my homie Nav Bains riding
He's gonna win in a landslide.
He's gonna win in a landslide.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
What's up with this narrative that this niqab circus is the only thing Quebec cares about, or that it only has any effect on polls in Quebec? I must be living in an alternate reality, because the numbers show me that Quebec is far from being the only place drinking the conservative kool aid (with some provinces drinking a lot more of it than we do).
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