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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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Divvy

Canadians burned my passport
What is the likelihood of the Liberals and the NDP being willing to form a coalition given a Conservative minority and no Bloc presence? Would they be able to get rid of FPTP in that scenario? Seems like if nothing else, that would be worth it to them for future elections.
 

Ledhead

Member
Not that I support it, but I think if the CPC wins a majority this time around again, we're going to hear talk of a "unite the left" movement. I don't think it would happen before the next election because the LPC will give Trudeau another try, but if the CPC won the following one again, then I think it would guarantee the movement would succeed.

Please don't speak of TWO more Con terms in office. I don't think I could handle it
 

shamanick

Member
London North here as well! Did anyone else notice that some of Susan Truppe's signs say "elect" even though she's the incumbent? Printing error or savy political strategy I don't fully understand?

I haven't noticed it, but they really infuriate me so I haven't been reading them lately. They are clearly aimed at seniors and are so blatantly fearmongering and insulting. I'm glad least there's at least a chance that she will be ousted. You poor fuckers in London West are going blue again for sure.
 
Not that I support it, but I think if the CPC wins a majority this time around again, we're going to hear talk of a "unite the left" movement. I don't think it would happen before the next election because the LPC will give Trudeau another try, but if the CPC won the following one again, then I think it would guarantee the movement would succeed.

drop the Sherbrooke Declaration and the 50+1% then we'll talk
 
there needs to be some rally

some unified large scale maybe even national protests

that is the only way I see these polls from changing drastically
 

Silexx

Member
Why did Jack Layton have to die? He would have had a huge surge this cycle.

I'm starting to think there's some serious nostalgia over Layton going on. Are we to assume that he would have somehow survived the niqab issue? Heck, can we even be sure he would have staked the same position as Muclair and not have decided it would be more politically prudent to side with the CPC and the Bloc on this issue?
 
That won't happen before the election. It might happen afterwards. But probably not.
that is what I fear

there is no way to ever have the general public to quickly learn about something... the press has failed since most headlines try to be "fair" or witty, while literally pushing aside most of Harpers shenanigans, and actual issues... they never actually broadcast the debates (for a number of reasons) and then later always say that no one won the debates in order to never pick a side all the time
 
I'm starting to think there's some serious nostalgia over Layton going on. Are we to assume that he would have somehow survived the niqab issue? Heck, can we even be sure he would have staked the same position as Muclair and not have decided it would be more politically prudent to side with the CPC and the Bloc on this issue?

It's only because of the Quebec caucus (which includes Mulcair) that NDP's position seems muddy. Layton could tame the Quebec caucus a lot better, because they know without Layton, they wouldn't be there in the first place.

It simply aligns with the NDP's values that they don't deny minorities the right to vote. Not sure why that would change. Hey, I even remember a 1940s Liberal attack ad on the CCF about the CCF supporting Chinese and Japanese-Canadians' right to vote.

Now whether he would have survived the debate is another question. My impression is, since he would have less pressure to be a fence-sitter, he could handle it a lot better like Trudeau has.
 
drop the Sherbrooke Declaration and the 50+1% then we'll talk

yeah, drop two things that will never again be issues in federal politics with a PR system in place (to say nothing about that system strengthening both parties, largely outside Quebec, at the expense of the Tories) before we talk about putting a PR system in place

you seriously have to be some kind of plant. every single fucking time, no matter what the subject is, you somehow avoid addressing it and immediately bring it back to your singleminded hatred of anything short of the LPC's specific brand of federalism.

I can't remember. Was there this much whining about FPTP from 1993-2006?

it might surprise you to learn that at least one poster ITT is on record as wishing FPTP wasn't in place from 1993-2006, and also that the primary Canadian organization devoted to electoral reform was founded during a Liberal majority government
 
yeah, drop two things that will never again be issues in federal politics with a PR system in place (to say nothing about that system strengthening both parties, largely outside Quebec, at the expense of the Tories) before we talk about putting a PR system in place

you seriously have to be some kind of plant. every single fucking time, no matter what the subject is, you somehow avoid addressing it and immediately bring it back to your singleminded hatred of anything short of the LPC's specific brand of federalism.



it might surprise you to learn that at least one poster ITT is on record as wishing FPTP wasn't in place from 1993-2006
hey man, nobody asked the NDP to take on weirdo Provincial centric positions just to pander to certain a demo.

What Fedearlist Party from the NO camp in their right mind thinks it is good policy in a minority government situation to take on such a position? For what? Just to win votes from gaboumafou who isn't going to vote NDP anyway.
 
hey man, nobody asked the NDP to take on weirdo Provincial centric positions just to pander to certain a demo.

And nobody's asking you to talk about Bill 101 and Sherbrooke ad infinitum to the exclusion of literally anything else substantive on policy (and in particular I've repeatedly asked you to clarify certain posts you've made about PR), and yet here we are
 
And nobody's asking you to talk about Bill 101 and Sherbrooke ad infinitum to the exclusion of literally anything else substantive on policy, and yet here we are
it is the NDP who brought that up.

It is the NDP who has those positions in their party platform.

Not the Liberals.

The Liberals = every Canadian is equal without caveats.
 
All our older (pre-90s) elections had two great parties that people could vote for: PC and Liberal. But then we saw the emergence of NDP, Reform (aka Stephen Harper's Conservative Party) and Bloc Quebecois. Wish NDP would just merge with Liberals.
 

Alavard

Member
All our older (pre-90s) elections had two great parties that people could vote for: PC and Liberal. But then we saw the emergence of NDP, Reform (aka Stephen Harper's Conservative Party) and Bloc Quebecois. Wish NDP would just merge with Liberals.

God no. A two-party system (well, two parties plus the Bloc...) breeds nothing but 'us vs them' mentality. Just look to the US for that.
 
it is the NDP who brought that up.

It is the NDP who has those positions in their party platform.


Not the Liberals.

The Liberals = every Canadian is equal without caveats.

Then bring them up once, state your disagreements, and shut the fuck up about them. It's not contributing to discussion when someone asks you to clarify your position on something unrelated to either issue and your very next post is the same "THE NDP IS PANDERING" shit you've literally said 400 times in the past two months.

All our older (pre-90s) elections had two great parties that people could vote for: PC and Liberal. But then we saw the emergence of NDP, Reform (aka Stephen Harper's Conservative Party) and Bloc Quebecois. Wish NDP would just merge with Liberals.

Well, aside from the fact that the NDP existed and was various degrees of viable pre-90s (from its low-water mark of 8 seats in its last election as the CCF, to supporting the Pearson governments under Douglas, to nearly overtaking the Liberals under Broadbent), sure.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Then bring them up once, state your disagreements, and shut the fuck up about them. It's not contributing to discussion when someone asks you to clarify your position on something unrelated to either issue and your very next post is the same "THE NDP IS PANDERING" shit you've literally said 400 times in the past two months.
To be fair, if you're from Quebec, sovereigntist pandering is an important issue, and the NDP are in this hilarious position of trying to be the Bloc without being the Bloc.
 
To be fair, if you're from Quebec, sovereigntist pandering is an important issue, and the NDP are in this hilarious position of trying to be the Bloc without being the Bloc.

It's definitely an important issue, particularly now that we've had two unsuccessful referendums yet sovereigntists are still being sore losers - but it should not be so vitally important that it's literally the only thing you ever post about.
 
This is the candidate in my riding... Saying that even Mulcair can be stripped of his citizenship because of his dual citizenship with France. Only if the crime is bad enough though don't worry second class citizens!

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/10/06/conservative-candidate-muses-about-deporting-mulcair-under-c-24/

All my neighbors have Brad Butt signs so I am weary come Oct 19... At least I have a bunch of friends in the area voting for the first time this election (pretty much all voting Liberal)
 
This is the candidate in my riding... Saying that even Mulcair can be stripped of his citizenship because of his dual citizenship with France. Only if the crime is bad enough though don't worry second class citizens!

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/10/06/conservative-candidate-muses-about-deporting-mulcair-under-c-24/

All my neighbors have Brad Butt signs so I am weary come Oct 19... At least I have a bunch of friends in the area voting for the first time this election (pretty much all voting Liberal)

How are the conservatives winning in Missisauga, Brampton, Markham, Vaughan, where a large number of immigrants live?! Wtf
 
Jeet Heer wrote a pretty good twitter essay about how the Conservatives seem to be adopting something akin to the Republicans' Southern Strategy where these dog-whistle politics may benefit them in the short term, may very well end up tarnishing their brand in the long term for an entire generation.

I'm reading a book right now called Before The Storm, by the guy who wrote Nixonland. It's interesting in that I see a lot of the parallels between how the Conservatives campaign and govern now, and in how the GOP used resentment (both racial and class) as a means of developing and maintaining a base. I think/hope Canada is too urban (which includes, to an extent, the suburbs), educated and multicultural to go the same direction that the CPC would need to have the kind of generational majority the Republicans enjoyed from the mid-'60s to the mid-'90s, but at the same time, you can see the thinking behind it, and it's not crazy.

Not that I support it, but I think if the CPC wins a majority this time around again, we're going to hear talk of a "unite the left" movement. I don't think it would happen before the next election because the LPC will give Trudeau another try, but if the CPC won the following one again, then I think it would guarantee the movement would succeed.

Enh, I think it depends on how much money they have. One thing that really pushed the PC and Canadian Alliance parties together was that their big donors essentially forced the merger, threatening to cut them off unless they joined up. They had the power to do that since it happened just before the Chretien's Elections Act kicked in. While neither the Liberals nor the NDP are anywhere near as successful as the Conservatives when it comes to raising money, the Liberals, at least, seem to have reached a point where they can sustain themselves. I don't know about the NDP. If people started withholding donations, then you might see a serious push for a merger, but absent that it's not happening.

(Plus I've always had the impression that the Liberals had a two-election strategy with Trudeau -- get him into Opposition with his first election, and then go from there to becoming PM as people grow more comfortable with him.)

I'm starting to think there's some serious nostalgia over Layton going on. Are we to assume that he would have somehow survived the niqab issue? Heck, can we even be sure he would have staked the same position as Muclair and not have decided it would be more politically prudent to side with the CPC and the Bloc on this issue?

Yeah, without minimizing how much he grew the NDP -- which was impressive in its own right, make no mistake -- if you look at their votes the last election, virtually all the growth happened in Quebec. Considering how mercurial that province's support can be, there's no telling if he would've kept it this time around, or, alternatively, if his support outside of Quebec would've suddenly jumped.

Ahahahah! Sometimes I wonder if you're not simply playing a very good "troll" character.

Only sometimes?

I can't remember. Was there this much whining about FPTP from 1993-2006?

There was quite a bit of it after the Liberals won in 1997 with 38% of the vote. Judging from your other posts, I understand what you're insinuating, but it's mostly without merit.
 
This is the candidate in my riding... Saying that even Mulcair can be stripped of his citizenship because of his dual citizenship with France. Only if the crime is bad enough though don't worry second class citizens!

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/10/06/conservative-candidate-muses-about-deporting-mulcair-under-c-24/

All my neighbors have Brad Butt signs so I am weary come Oct 19... At least I have a bunch of friends in the area voting for the first time this election (pretty much all voting Liberal)

But Mulcair's dual citizenship is different because he was born in Canada and only gained dual citizenship through marriage (France)

But could such a law apply to a naturally born Canadian who then later gained a 2nd citizenship due to marriage of family lineage?

Many European countries offer citizenship of children of citizens who were never born in said European countries.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
I'm reading a book right now called Before The Storm, by the guy who wrote Nixonland. It's interesting in that I see a lot of the parallels between how the Conservatives campaign and govern now, and in how the GOP used resentment (both racial and class) as a means of developing and maintaining a base. I think/hope Canada is too urban (which includes, to an extent, the suburbs), educated and multicultural to go the same direction that the CPC would need to have the kind of generational majority the Republicans enjoyed from the mid-'60s to the mid-'90s, but at the same time, you can see the thinking behind it, and it's not crazy.
I think the dirty secret that no one wants to admit is that Canada can be as racist as America. We just like to pretend we're better, but when the niqab can be a campaign issue, it's clear that we're not.
 
But Mulcair's dual citizenship is different because he was born in Canada and only gained dual citizenship through marriage (France)

But could such a law apply to a naturally born Canadian who then later gained a 2nd citizenship due to marriage of family lineage?

Many European countries offer citizenship of children of citizens who were never born in said European countries.

Looks like the conservatives are trying just that with a Canadian born terrorist:

http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/exclusive-tories-move-to-strip-citizenship-from-canadian-born-terrorist/

Lots of first generation Canadians are also second class citizens if they can hold/hold dual citizenship by default. I am now one too.
 
All our older (pre-90s) elections had two great parties that people could vote for: PC and Liberal. But then we saw the emergence of NDP, Reform (aka Stephen Harper's Conservative Party) and Bloc Quebecois. Wish NDP would just merge with Liberals.

I don't think your grasp on Canadian electoral history is as strong as you think it is.

The NDP emerged in the 60s and was important enough to hold the balance of power a few times, propping up Liberal governments in exchange for key issues (universal healthcare being the most famous). There have also been numerous other 3rd parties that have been fairly strong and spoilers, including the Progressive Party and the Social Credit Party (and of course the CCF, the predecessor to the NDP). Canada has always had 3rd parties on both sides of the spectrum.
 

Sakura

Member
I don't understand. They will continue to face challenges so long as FPTP is around. Why not team up to get rid of it to increase their chances in the future?
The Liberals have won plenty under FPTP in the past and they will again in the future. No party will govern forever.
If the Liberals do well this election and the NDP do poorly I don't see why they would want to join. They'd probably think they could come out on top next election.
 
D

Deleted member 126221

Unconfirmed Member
hey man, nobody asked the NDP to take on weirdo Provincial centric positions just to pander to certain a demo.

What Fedearlist Party from the NO camp in their right mind thinks it is good policy in a minority government situation to take on such a position? For what? Just to win votes from gaboumafou who isn't going to vote NDP anyway.

But insisting that 50% +1 isn't enough for a province to become independent isn't "pandering" to hardcore federalists like you? Yeah right.

And spoiler:
I voted for the NPD once.
 

Silexx

Member
Hmmm, no one has posted the new Ekos and Ipsos polls yet? Guessing we're just pouring ourselves some stiff drinks first.
 
Ekos: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.p...dp-in-a-holding-pattern-well-back-of-leaders/

CPC - 35
LPC - 31
NDP - 22

Fits the trend. They also say their numbers have shown a CPC lead since mid-September, dismissing the idea that the niqab ban is the real reason for the surge (though is probably the main reason for the faster NDP drop in QC). However, the CPC is now tied in QC with the NDP, according to them.

At this point Nanos is the only one showing the Liberals in the lead, and they are also the one with the lowest sample sizes.
 
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