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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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I think we all need to hear Tommy Douglas tell us the Story of Mouseland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqgOvzUeiAA
firehawk12
Subete no aware
The Mouseland argument works if there's any mice left to vote. Unions seem to be dead, and the TPP will probably gut the CAW even more. It's clear that trying to be BQ-lite didn't work, since they seem to be bleeding in Quebec, so what's left for the NDP other than to go back to protest party status? Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if they lose Alberta in the next provincial election there.
Neither party has to trigger an election. When a government is voted down without having ever passed a confidence motion at the start of a new Parliament, the next-largest party takes office. Harper would not be given a dissolution if he asked for one; Johnston would call on the Leader of the Opposition to try to form a government.
And neither the Liberals nor the NDP could support the Tories in power (among other things, both have explicitly said they won't, and their voters would not be pleased if they did).
Translator at an advance polling station got fired for following a voter into the voting screen.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/10/10/elections-canada-translator-fired.html
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/10/10/elections-canada-translator-fired.html
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Yeah, I confused the Pearson thing with the McKenzie King thing. lol
I guess there's precedent to offer the other party the chance to lead, but there's also greater precedent that an election be called. This is the stupid part of being a Westminster democracy where everything is left at the hands of the one guy the PM selected to be the pseudo-King of the country. I don't think we know what would happen, and certainly the NDP wouldn't want to trigger an election if they get nailed on the 19th. Which means the NDP abstain from any confidence matters and the Conservatives get to govern as if they have a majority.
(Which, incidentally is how the Liberals operated when they went through their Dion/Iggy bullshit)
"Oh shit... have you guys all seen these poll numbers?"
GuessMyUserName
Member
Ahahahahahah omg I just saw the most amazing Conservative ad on TV
I wanna find it now, Harper just talking to the camera, "it's not about me, running parliament isn't a popularity contest, this is about TAXES"
I know it's not new rhetoric and I've seen some commercial with a woman saying "he's not perfect but I can trust him with the economy blah blah" (which I've always laughed at already!) but seeing him coming right up on my TV and saying it, I literally exploded in laughter just now.
I wanna find it now, Harper just talking to the camera, "it's not about me, running parliament isn't a popularity contest, this is about TAXES"
I know it's not new rhetoric and I've seen some commercial with a woman saying "he's not perfect but I can trust him with the economy blah blah" (which I've always laughed at already!) but seeing him coming right up on my TV and saying it, I literally exploded in laughter just now.
Liberty4all
Banned
Well I got to vote yesterday in the advance polls. Unfortunately they would not let me vote in Burnaby (Brentwood) which is a swing riding ... I just arrived and all my ID says Toronto. Well I could have but it would have been complicated. So I ended up voting for the Trinity Spadina riding (Olivia Chows) riding ... Pretty sure she will win and it wont be close.
I had said I was debating PC or NDP ... I went NDP. It was a tough call, I agree with the conservatives on a number of issues, first and foremost the increase for TSFA'S as well as their stance on when taking a citizenship oath.
I don't like the way the PC's have gone on privacy issues, their refusal to look at electoral reform, and the way I felt the debates were not on major stations making it difficult for Canadians to actually watch them.
I work in government funded programing as well, and my spouse in healthcare so from a career perspective more money going into these services likely means better job security as well as being more "Canadian" in terms of helping citizens.
I actually probably should have voted Liberal, I dislike the NDP, however, I can't stand Trudeau. Also I really liked Layton, so a vote for Olivia felt like a personalized vote for her and the memory of her husband ...
I had said I was debating PC or NDP ... I went NDP. It was a tough call, I agree with the conservatives on a number of issues, first and foremost the increase for TSFA'S as well as their stance on when taking a citizenship oath.
I don't like the way the PC's have gone on privacy issues, their refusal to look at electoral reform, and the way I felt the debates were not on major stations making it difficult for Canadians to actually watch them.
I work in government funded programing as well, and my spouse in healthcare so from a career perspective more money going into these services likely means better job security as well as being more "Canadian" in terms of helping citizens.
I actually probably should have voted Liberal, I dislike the NDP, however, I can't stand Trudeau. Also I really liked Layton, so a vote for Olivia felt like a personalized vote for her and the memory of her husband ...
killer rin
Member
I'dunno. If we come out of this with a Conservative Minority and Trudeau has the NDP knocking at his doors, it would be in his best interests to accept, especially if the Liberals have more seats than the NDP because that means that for the small, small price of a minor policy or two, Trudeau gets to be both the Prime Minister, and be considered by the Left as the one who killed Emperor
If you find it, let me know. I'm dying to see it now.
No, there isn't. There is literally not one instance where a new Parliament has been dissolved just because the outgoing government couldn't get a confidence motion passed.
It's not in their interests to discuss a coalition prior to the election, because that just undercuts the reason to vote for the Liberals, particularly if (as looked to be the case at the time) it would be an NDP-lead coalition. Post-election, the coalition is a different matter, particularly if Trudeau himself would be the one leading it. Though it's more likely that any arrangement would be more in the manner of the Peterson-Rae deal in Ontario in 1985, rather than a coalition.
Simon Belmont
Banned
Has any Government ever lost their first confidence motion? Seems to me that it's convention for the two losing parties to pass the first confidence motion of the new Government anyways.
Edit: Outside the King-Byng affair.
GuessMyUserName
Member
Not having any luck, but I've already seen it come up yet again on the next commercial break on CHCH. To bad I didn't bring my video capture card.. but I guess I could record with my phone in a bit
Visiting my mom's for Thanksgiving this week, she's already been against Conservatives but I know a lot of the fear mongering on refugees and the niqab has gotten to her, and her boyfriend has always been a strong Conservative supporter that tells her this stuff. I've been discussing the election a bunch with her today and now she's on board the Harper Hate Train. Just a bit ago when that ad came on she called him over while we were mocking Cons and she tried to tell him about them - before long she says "you just vote Conservative because you always vote for them!"... and his response was "you just vote non-Conservative because you always vote non-Conservative"
... I could only raise my eyebrows, don't wanna get into anything with him
Oh yeah, and back at York I caught another poster~
The forum poll today looks like it's showing the same six point gap that nanos showed. The numbers are 37% LPC, 31% CPC and 23% NDP. Forum may be overestimating one of the party's support a bit like the Liberals support.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/10/10/liberals-within-reach-of-majority-poll.html
There's a bonus statement from Joe Oliver in the article warning about the Liberals if they win this election.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/10/10/liberals-within-reach-of-majority-poll.html
There's a bonus statement from Joe Oliver in the article warning about the Liberals if they win this election.
TheRealTalker
Banned
lol
I remember seeing the original art that this parodies recently so I couldn't help but chuckle
I remember seeing the original art that this parodies recently so I couldn't help but chuckle
Perfect Blue
Banned
User 479360
Banned
So I'm starting to really consider voting Liberal. My Green Party vote would be a throwaway, which is too bad, because their idea of standardized basic income for the disabled is a necessity.
I like the Liberal candidate here, too.
I just hate Ontario's Liberals and Kathleen Wynne.
I like the Liberal candidate here, too.
I just hate Ontario's Liberals and Kathleen Wynne.
Perfect Blue
Banned
Facebook isn't exactly the place for civilized discourse lol.
Fair point, but it's basically like calling someone retarded. They should be called out for it.
Since I've already voted, all I can do is wait.
And waiting, in an election like this, sucks
They should be called out for the sentence "look Marge, I'm a National Democrat Party."
CreeperBlocks
Banned
I think going to vote on Election Day. I have a clear idea on who I'm going to vote for.
In any instance where the governing party is reduced to a minority (or is elected to another minority), the other parties always have the option of voting them out of office on the speech from the throne. They mostly don't, whether because the opposition parties don't agree or else they consider it politically inopportune to do so. But it does happen. That's what David Peterson and Bob Rae did in Ontario in 1985, leading to Peterson's Liberals taking office with the backing of the Rae New Democrats.
King's government in 1925 did pass a speech from the throne at the beginning of the session. They'd been running the House of Commons for several months before they were defeated on a confidence matter -- hence, why King believed he deserved a dissolution. Had he been defeated right out of the gate, there'd have been no question that Meighen was entitled to attempt to form a government.
Thing is, when faced with foes in the legislature that outnumber you and with the power and intent to compel your resignation, most minority governments will not even attempt to stay, and resign without the need for conflict.
I was looking at Harper's Cabinet, guessing at who is in danger of being defeated, since Joe Oliver is clearly the highest-profile example. Amongst the full ministers, I counted Oliver, Leona Aglukkaq (Nunavut), Gail Shea (Egmont), Kerry-Lynne Findlay (Delta), Greg Rickford (Kenora), Chris Alexander (Ajax), and Bernard Valcourt (Madawaska-Restigouche) as the most likely to go.
Hours Left
Member
Voted in the advance polls today.
Please Canada, don't mess this up.
Please Canada, don't mess this up.
killer rin
Member
Just remember, the Ontario Liberal Party is not the Liberal Party of Canada. They are different entities; and as an Ontarian myself, as much as I hate to admit it, our fellow people tend to dislike having the same Provincial Party as the Federal Party, even if they are only related by name only.
In addition, just remember. After this election FPTP will be gone and whether AV or MMP, we will finally be able to vote for what we actually believe in.... even more so if we get MMP because the Greens will be able to finally get the rightful amount of seats in the house that they deserve, and thus be more likely to pass through things we need like Basic Income for the disabled.
I feel like they're going to mess this up. When I took my brother and dad to go vote, I noticed a lot more NDP signs than usual up in my area. I'm in a traditionally Liberal riding, been Liberal since it's formation 11 years ago, but man, oh man, that split vote might just give us a run considering the Liberal MP only won by a measly 6xx votes against the Conservative candidate. I'm a bit worried.
If the Liberals won your riding in the last election, with 18% of the national popular vote, they're not in any danger of losing it now, when every poll pegs their support at above 30%.
BigJonsson
Member
Liberals increased their lead in the Forum poll, a strong minority of 145 is projected
But it's Forum
But it's Forum
matthewwhatever
Member
Because Paul Martin handled it in the worst way imaginable. Rather than taking a page from Chretien and doing his best to minimize the whole thing, Martin decided he had to show he was different by going on national TV and telling everyone they should be outraged by the worst scandal ever. He did it entirely to spite Chretien (who apparently offered to stay on a few more months so he could bear the brunt of the fallout), and it backfired spectacularly.
This would be much more believable if they hadn't included a plank in their platform -- banning MPs from charging speaking fees -- that was put there specifically to spite Trudeau. Plus, literally two days ago, he was saying he had no respect for Trudeau.
That said, this:
shows the reason why:
If one-third of their remaining voters really do abandon them, depending on how it breaks that could be devastating. Presumably they have enough of a cushion in Quebec that even if things go badly, they'll still have their second-best showing ever, but the fact that's even in question shows what a disaster of a campaign this has been for them.
Speaking of polls, I think I'm getting push-polled by Angus Reid. I'm part of their online survey group, and it's asking me questions like "Justin Trudeau doesnt have the experience needed to make the difficult decisions that a Prime Minister makes every day. Thats a good reason to not vote Liberal." and "Tom Mulcair has said he is willing to form a coalition government with Justin Trudeau in order to defeat Stephen Harper, but Justin Trudeau has refused. Thats a good reason to not vote Liberal." There are a few less negative ones in there, but it's weird seeing them just putting attack lines out there like that.
matthewwhatever
Member
I'm starting to get the sense that the NDP may not be putting forth the most effort right now...
Also, I think the Greens might win in Victoria. The NDP tweeted out this picture of their rally there today with Mulcair, saying the room was packed with over 1200 people:
Which would've been fine, until a CBC reporter tweeted this:
If the NDP is struggling to fill rooms less than 10 days before the election in a riding they currently hold in a region where they should be highly competitive, that's a bad sign for them.
Also, I think the Greens might win in Victoria. The NDP tweeted out this picture of their rally there today with Mulcair, saying the room was packed with over 1200 people:
Which would've been fine, until a CBC reporter tweeted this:
If the NDP is struggling to fill rooms less than 10 days before the election in a riding they currently hold in a region where they should be highly competitive, that's a bad sign for them.
GuessMyUserName
Member
Look at it as I do - I'm voting Liberals now so that I (and many more, I'm sure) can vote Greens in the future.
When I went to Justin's first press stop for the liberal party leadership in Richmond, BC, it was originally a ticket requested event with limited admission.
What ended up happening was they let in everyone and the hotel hall they had was packed with more people than it was supposed to hold.
Also saw footage of this on CTV News just now.
I knew there was something 'off' about that rally.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
Trudeau is coming to my riding on Monday for a rally, so Im going to that. Hopefully this riding can be solidified.
the population in Victoria is 300k, and Rankin is a lock, so I wouldn't use this as a great indicator
Just wondering can anybody tell me the best way to find out if Trudeau has any rallies planned for my area in the next week that I could try to attend? Or Mulcair for that matter. I had tried looking in to scheduled rallies before but couldn't find any clear answer.
sounds like he might be interested in the parties' stances on marijuana legalization
Okay, this was a great Liberal ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD5FAzvltpI&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD5FAzvltpI&feature=youtu.be
killer rin
Member
Use your knowledge of him to find a plank in the platforms he will be interested in.
-If he is under 30, pull the Marijuana card.
-If he is a student, pull the Liberals and NDP pledging to deal with the rising costs of education and Student Loan Interest/Repayment
-If he is a parent, pull the NDP card if their child is 5 or under, and the Liberal card if they are older
- If he is a big user of Public Transit, pull the Liberal plan to get more buses on the road and more subway lines
The goal isn't to spew the entire platform at them, but to find a single key feature that will make him pause for a moment. Once he pauses, you have an in to say secondary things that they can have if they vote.
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