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[Cake Boss]

Marijuana suks, coke is gud.

 

[Simon Belmont]

That's a valid position to take. I don't, personally, agree that that is justification for the suspension of habeas corpus, but I can respect that difference of opinion.

I'm specifically addressing the use of popular support among francophones in the heat of crisis as justification. Popular support of the suspension of rights of a minority is a terrible justification, even if that minority goes along with it.

I'm just glad I didn't have to make the decision. I tried to think about how many people being unfairly detained a life is worth, then I got a headache and had to lay down.

Ok a brighter note, it turns out I'm taking my son skating for the first time. Sorry if I opened a can of worms and left, I'll have a look back when I'm home again.

 

[TheRealTalker]

lol Harper apparently is losing his cool

 

[MMarston]

lol Harper apparently is losing his cool

If Trudeau manages to get away with it, I pretty much imagine this being Harper.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

Retrospect in this sense may be dangerous, but so too is using popular support for the suppression of rights as justification. Lots of terrible abuses of martial law have been popular, that in and of itself is not justification for them.

Very well put. The situation did not justify the aggressive measures and illegal arrests. "Not knowing what to expect" is not an excuse to fire in every direction (every direction where independentists are, that is).

And it wasn't the suspension of rights of a minority. It was a suspension of rights in general.

Francophones are a minority in Canada.

 

[maharg]

It's not a whole-hog justification, but it shows the difference between in-crisis decision making and retrospective decision making. And it wasn't the suspension of rights of a minority. It was a suspension of rights in general.

While it's true that the law itself was general, its application was pretty clearly targeted at a particular group.

Which is where we're at now, with the NDP sliding into that fake "Kingmaker" position that people claim can control the direction the government goes but in reality (as we saw with the Lib-Dems in the UK) actually leads the third party into oblivion.

There are some pretty damn significant differences between the situation with the Liberal Democrats in the UK and the hypothetical situation of an NDP-supported Liberal minority. Most importantly, the Lib-Dems supported a government that was antithetical to their voting base's interests to push one particular issue that the Conservatives were completely against. It was a self-defeating move both in terms of pissing off their base and expending their political capital on an issue that was doomed to fail with their partner against it.

In this case, both the Liberals and the NDP are in favour of some kind of electoral reform, which means a majority in the legislature would be in favour of it. They also both seem to be eschewing the idea of putting it to a referendum, which is a fraught path for electoral reform (ironically, perhaps). And on top of that they both still agree on more than they each agree with the Conservatives.

The NDP supporting a conservative government would put the NDP in the same position as the Lib-Dems. Pissing off their base for probably no gain. The NDP will have effectively no choice but to support a Liberal government if the Liberals have more seats and the Conservatives have a weak plurality or worse. All alternatives are worse for them in the medium and long term.

 

[explodet]

If Trudeau manages to get away with it, I pretty much imagine this being Harper.

Man, I wish James Woods was our Prime Minister, that would have been so cool

 

[Zombie James]

Kiss of death.

 

[gutter_trash]

Kiss of death.

Not sure what to look at.

Doug Ford? Or small crowd?

 

[Kabuki Quantum Lover]

Probably the Ford brothers and the somewhat-thin crowd.

 

[gutter_trash]

Damn. Rob lost weight

 

[diaspora]

Not sure what to look at.

Doug Ford? Or small crowd?

The 1 million~ new jobs shtick was done by Hudak first, before Wynne and the OLP crushed him.

 

[TheRealTalker]

Is he tossing in Ford in order to get the media's attention since the Niqab issue is fizzling down and the press is more focused on Trudeau's rallies and Muclair's thoughts on a coalition

 

[matthewwhatever]

Does anyone know if any political party has gone from third to first in an Canadian federal election ever because there is a chance the liberals will end up in first place on election night?I know parties like the Alberta NDP have gone from like second last(ahead of the lone independent) to like first in the 2015 provincial election.

Nope. It's always been the official opposition winning when we've had a change in government. We've had first to not even a party (1993, when the PCs went from a sizable majority to 2 seats and a loss of official party status), and first to barely a rump (1958 and 1984, when the PCs won massive landslides), but never first to third. It would be a pretty impressive accomplishment if they pull it off.

At this point I think they will only lose between 15 and 25 seats(maybe even less than that). I don't think they will chuck him out unless they get a devastating loss because they really can't afford to have a leadership race during a minority government especially one that may be a bit more unstable than usual.It;s possible Mulcair decides to quit himself or they decide to chuck him out anyway.

Or he loses his seat and they have no choice but to get a new leader.

Muclair isn't going to get the boot

He is experienced, knows how to answer question and is loved by his party... The only thing he doesn't have currently is recognition by the public. He is still in Layton's shadow but I believe he is making a image for himself so he might be even more recognizable for the next election

Loved? Really? I get the sense they picked him because they thought he would be the guy who would get them to the next level (which was basically what he was promising), rather than because they really liked him personally. I don't get the sense that the NDP rank & file are that enamoured with him, just that they tolerated him when it seemed like he would lead them to victory.

I don't think Topp would be a good choice for leadership of the NDP at all. The fact that he couldn't pull off the leadership with everything he had going for him, and the fact that he's essentially a back room political operative with all the baggage that almost certainly comes with that, doesn't bode at all well for how he'd do at the front of a national campaign. Good strategists do not necessarily make good politicians.

But then, I maintain that Mulcair -- personality wise -- should have been a good choice but the campaign they've run is really really terrible and not at all well suited to him. Angry Tom should have been let out of the cage.

Topp would've been an awful leader, agreed. I'm skeptical that Mulcair was the right choice, though. "Angry" just isn't a mood that works well on the campaign trail, and that should've been especially obvious with the lessons of 2011 fresh in their memories. He's not a bad interrogator in the House, but I feel like other considerations should've come into play.

I heard a bit of a Trudeau speech on the radio today where he blatantly poked at that fault line.

He essentially said that Harper has crapped all over the heritage of the Progressive Conservative party.

It's almost as if he's trying to drive a schism in the Conservative party.

For the last day or two, the Liberals have been pushing this: Conservatives Choose the Liberal Party: In Their Own Words

I don't know how many old PCers are left in the CPC -- probably not many, I'd guess -- but if there are any left, they could be the difference between government and opposition, or minority vs. majority.

According to this article, Pierre Poilivere may have fucked the Conservatives over in Ottawa:

http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/10/12/tories-may-regret-shutting-out-potential-ottawa-candidates

Basically, there were a few popular local politicians interested in running as Conservative candidates in the Ottawa ridings with no Conservative incumbent running but Pierre Poilievre shut them down in favour of no-names to guarantee his position as Harper's lapdog.

I thought it was odd that Macleod didn't run federally, because she would've had a very strong chance of winning. If the Conservatives really did turn down both her and Harder, that's insanity on their part. I know they value diehard partisans over all else, but you'd think winning would play into their thought process too.

 

[Zombie James]

The 1 million~ new jobs shtick was done by Hudak first, before Wynne and the OLP crushed him.

The whole "X MILLION NEW JOBS" shtick only really works when you're attacking the party in power who hasn't been able to create any. A platform like that coming from the party that's been in charge for nearly a decade is the definition of a mixed message.

 

[gutter_trash]

Rob Ford has 10000000x more charisma and charm than Harper

 

[BigJonsson]

Seems desperate to allow himself to be seen with the Fords

 

[gutter_trash]

Seems desperate to allow himself to be seen with the Fords

Trying to attract the bubba vote

 

[Cake Boss]

lol Harper apparently is losing his cool

 

[diaspora]

The whole "X MILLION NEW JOBS" shtick only really works when you're attacking the party in power who hasn't been able to create any. A platform like that coming from the party that's been in charge for nearly a decade is the definition of a mixed message.

Yeah, no shit. That's what makes it hilarious. Hudak got BTFO trying it with Wynne, I can't see it working here.

 

[Sapiens]

Not sure what to look at.

Doug Ford? Or small crowd?

in all fairness, the small crowds have a lot to do with the vetting for supporters of CPC only.

I went to a trudeau rally and I was allowed to get in after filling out a reg card (none of which was verified by the young female staff). It was super packed.

Hoping the NPD gets crushed this time.

 

[Kyuur]

So if the Conservatives win, but Liberals and NDP outnumber them in seats, is there a good chance we will still see electoral reform? Or would it just be blocked by a stacked Senate?

 

[BigJonsson]

Yeah, no shit. That's what makes it hilarious. Hudak got BTFO trying it with Wynne, I can't see it working here.

Hudak also said he'd fire 100,000 public service workers

 

[Dr.Acula]

Seems desperate to allow himself to be seen with the Fords

Are there any on-the-fence CPC voters across the nation who are going to be galvanized by the support of an admitted crack-addict and international laughing-stock?

 

[TheRealTalker]

screw the Senate

man I hope the Liberals also get the nerve to boot them out

 

[BigJonsson]

Are there any on-the-fence CPC voters across the nation who are going to be galvanized by the support of an admitted crack-addict and international laughing-stock?

May help get a few more voters out but not enough for that area to turn blue

 

[Stumpokapow]

So if the Conservatives win, but Liberals and NDP outnumber them in seats, is there a good chance we will still see electoral reform? Or would it just be blocked by a stacked Senate?

Possibility 1: The NDP and Liberals don't want an election and can't agree to support each other either in an informal supply agreement or formal coalition, Harper governs like he has a majority, no reform going to happen.

Possibility 2: The NDP and Liberals manage to agree and one of them end up being the government; but why reform the election system if they're ready to cooperate going forward, since that cooperation solves the electoral penalty that makes them want to reform the system to begin with.

Possibility 3: The NDP and Liberals manage to agree but electoral reform is stalled by the Senate; they have to decide whether to stack the senate, and if so how, exposing a cleavage in how the parties approach the Senate more generally (NDP: Abolish; Liberals: Incremental institutional changes but keep it appointed) and this causes the effort to stall out.

Possibility 4: The NDP and Liberals agree; electoral reform passes because the Senate doesn't want to block a popular mandate.

Kinda hard to positively assert which it might be.

 

[Sakura]

So if the Conservatives win, but Liberals and NDP outnumber them in seats, is there a good chance we will still see electoral reform? Or would it just be blocked by a stacked Senate?

Very unlikely.

 

[Azih]

I am completely not sure about this but I heard somewhere that the Senate doesn't have authority over how Parliament conducts it's affairs just as the House of Commons doesn't have much authority over how the Senate acts. So it may be that the Senate can't really block electoral reform and it's just a matter for Parliament. I will find out more about that.

In any case if the Cons win the most seats but fall a fair bit short of a majority then Trudeau and Mulcair are on record as saying they will refuse to work with Haper and I see no reason why they wouldn't hold to that. So either Harper would go away leaving all possibilities open or there will be some sort of Liberal/NDP agreement and electoral reform would almost certainly be one of the major items on the negotiating table for the resulting government.

So call your Liberal candidate and say you support PR. Phone calls really help in this sort of a in the balance situation. There's something really weird happening within the Liberal party on this issue. I talked to the Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal candidate in a virtual town hall and while on the phone he said clearly that he supports some form of PR he is refusing to make it official in an email so Fair Vote could put it on the FV website.

I can't see the Senate blocking something like this in any case as they are struggling with poor public opinion and blocking elected representatives from reforming their own level of government would reflect really badly on them.

 

[CitizenVectron]

Possibility 1: The NDP and Liberals don't want an election and can't agree to support each other either in an informal supply agreement or formal coalition, Harper governs like he has a majority, no reform going to happen.

Possibility 2: The NDP and Liberals manage to agree and one of them end up being the government; but why reform the election system if they're ready to cooperate going forward, since that cooperation solves the electoral penalty that makes them want to reform the system to begin with.

Possibility 3: The NDP and Liberals manage to agree but electoral reform is stalled by the Senate; they have to decide whether to stack the senate, and if so how, exposing a cleavage in how the parties approach the Senate more generally (NDP: Abolish; Liberals: Incremental institutional changes but keep it appointed) and this causes the effort to stall out.

Possibility 4: The NDP and Liberals agree; electoral reform passes because the Senate doesn't want to block a popular mandate.

Kinda hard to positively assert which it might be.

Number 2 isn't very realistic though. They are going to squeak through with a combined majority, and that is rare. It isn't the common rule (usually majorities).

 

[Silexx]

Also, while very unlikely to happen, but there's another possibility of either the Liberals or NDP propping up a Conservative minority but sans Harper.

 

[Kyuur]

Possibility 1: The NDP and Liberals don't want an election and can't agree to support each other either in an informal supply agreement or formal coalition, Harper governs like he has a majority, no reform going to happen.

Bear with me here, I'm a little rusty on how our system works.. but I don't quite understand this. Even if the NDP/Liberals don't officially support eachother in some fashion, if electoral reform was proposed would the elected NDP/Liberal reps (and Green!) not be inclined to support it? What would stop them from voting it through, or would there be some problem even getting it on the table to begin with?

Thanks for taking the time to explain!

 

[TheRealTalker]

what a witty ad by the person/candidate running against Harper in his riding
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VA34OwZT16E

 

[Sakura]

I am completely not sure about this but I heard somewhere that the Senate doesn't have authority over how Parliament conducts it's affairs just as the House of Commons doesn't have much authority over how the Senate acts. So it may be that the Senate can't really block electoral reform and it's just a matter for Parliament. I will find out more about that.

In any case if the Cons win the most seats but fall a fair bit short of a majority then Trudeau and Mulcair are on record as saying they will refuse to work with Haper and I see no reason why they wouldn't hold to that. So either Harper would go away leaving all possibilities open or there will be some sort of Liberal/NDP agreement and electoral reform would almost certainly be one of the major items on the negotiating table for the resulting government.

So call your Liberal candidate and say you support PR. Phone calls really help in this sort of a in the balance situation. There's something really weird happening within the Liberal party on this issue. I talked to the Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal candidate in a virtual town hall and while on the phone he said clearly that he supports some form of PR he is refusing to make it official in an email so Fair Vote could put it on the FV website.

I can't see the Senate blocking something like this in any case as they are struggling with poor public opinion and blocking elected representatives from reforming their own level of government would reflect really badly on them.

The house of commons can't pass legislation without the senate.

And popular opinion isn't necessarily on the side of electoral reform. You could have a referendum on it to demonstrate that, but Trudeau has said he will not have a referendum on it.

 

[Azih]

The house of commons can't pass legislation without the senate.

And popular opinion isn't necessarily on the side of electoral reform. You could have a referendum on it to demonstrate that, but Trudeau has said he will not have a referendum on it.

Yeah but the house of commons can't pass legislation on how The Senate works at all without opening up the Constitution so there's some extra complication there on how each level can interfere with the other. Like I said I know some people who know way more than I do about what Constitutional protection each level has from the other because there are obviously some.

In any case Trudeau has committed to ending FPTP and replacing it with something else. The optics of unelected Senators blocking elected MPs from cleaning up their own house is really bad in and of itself and I really don't think the Senate wants that kind of a fight.

 

[killer rin]

Yeah but the house of commons can't pass legislation on how The Senate works at all without opening up the Constitution so there's some extra complication there on how each level can interfere with the other. Like I said I know some people who know way more than I do about what Constitutional protection each level has from the other because there are obviously some.

In any case Trudeau has committed to ending FPTP and replacing it with something else. The optics of unelected Senators blocking elected MPs from cleaning up their own house is really bad in and of itself and I really don't think the Senate wants that kind of a fight.

Hey, Azih. I was thinking. Since MMP is two ballots, one being our regular riding level, and the other being a proportional topup, wouldn't it be possible for both the Liberals and the NDP to get what they want? If Trudeau is a fan of AV, couldn't they theoretically get that for the riding-level and the NDP can tack on MMP proportional for the proportional ballot? Or would that not work out?

 

[BigJonsson]

Ipolitics says a new ekos poll is coming at 4 and an Australian campaign guru won't get much sleep over it....

 

[Cake Boss]

Ipolitics says a new ekos poll is coming at 4 and an Australian campaign guru won't get much sleep over it....

Unzips pants.

 

[Azih]

Hey, Azih. I was thinking. Since MMP is two ballots, one being our regular riding level, and the other being a proportional topup, wouldn't it be possible for both the Liberals and the NDP to get what they want?

If Trudeau is a fan of AV, couldn't they theoretically get that for the riding-level and the NDP can tack on MMP proportional for the proportional ballot? Or would that not work out?

Yup. No one has done that before but there's no reason why under MMP the local ballot can't be an AV style 'ranked ballot'.

 

[Kabuki Quantum Lover]

Ipolitics says a new ekos poll is coming at 4 and an Australian campaign guru won't get much sleep over it....

Unzips pants.

I like what you're selling.

 

[Herlihy Boy]

I'm really interested to see what happens in my riding of Kootenay-Columbia. We've been Conservative for a long time, but the redrawing of the boundaries has drastically shifted the demographic of the riding.

Our MP is a rookie seeking re-election. Here's what happened to him in his first term -
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-c...d-wilks-a-lesson-in-the-decline-of-parliament

 

[ivysaur12]

Slightly off topic but LOOOOOOOOOOL

 

[TheOMan]

Ipolitics says a new ekos poll is coming at 4 and an Australian campaign guru won't get much sleep over it....

Jacknicholson.gif

 

[Inquisitive_Ghost]

Slightly off topic but LOOOOOOOOOOL

That title! XD

Amazing.

 

[IceIpor]

Slightly off topic but LOOOOOOOOOOL

That's rich.

"They were only suppose to promise those changes! Not actually implement them! That's not ethical."

 

[Kyuur]

Slightly off topic but LOOOOOOOOOOL

Holy shit! That's amazing.

In side news, just took a look at all the candidates for my area and discovered that my former coworker from when I worked at Best Buy in my teens is the Libertarian candidate. Good guy, too bad I don't really support his party's ideals!

 

[Morrigan Stark]

OMG is that an Onion article XD

making fun of a French-Canadian accent when trying to speak English is not cool.
Would you make fun of an Asian accent trying to speak English? no, why? because it is racist to do so.

But they're the same race... and I make fun of the French Canadian accent, particularly Chrétien's, all the time, because it is ugly and funny.

Making fun of Chretien's accent won't garner Mulcair much support from swing Liberal voters.
Trashing Pierre Trudeau in three debates in a row won't garner Muclair much support from swing Liberal voters.

Actually I'm pretty sure that you're the only one who gets so personally outraged at Mulcair poking criticism at your Great Eternal Natural Leader (tm) Pierre Trudeau, and no one else gives a shit.

 

[Zombie James]

Slightly off topic but LOOOOOOOOOOL

Conservatism should only exist for its comedic value.

 

[killer rin]

Yup. No one has done that before but there's no reason why under MMP the local ballot can't be an AV style 'ranked ballot'.

Hmm, that would be an interesting outcome then... if it was to happen. an AV styled Rank Ballot is a much better choice than FPTP (despite giving similar results), and with it being MMP in total, we would essentially be getting the best of both worlds. If the NDP was smart, they could also theoretically use that as a wedge if Justin started getting cold feet on his comity if they came back saying MMP like the last one did.

Slightly off topic but LOOOOOOOOOOL

Oooohhh My god :dead

 

[Kinitari]

Actually I'm pretty sure that you're the only one who gets so personally outraged at Mulcair poking criticism at your Great Eternal Natural Leader (tm) Pierre Trudeau, and no one else gives a shit.

I don't know about that. I think Justin brought it up during one debate, where Mulclair mentioned Pierre in some way, and he replied, and the reply he gave garnered a lot of support and Mulclair had his comments seen pretty negatively. I think at that point Mulclair dropped mentioning Pierre.