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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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Lone_Prodigy
Member
I'm surprised the Liberals are polling so high in this riding. The sampling leans towards older voters, however: if a sizable number of voters aged 18-34 participate, it could swing towards the NDP.
It might explain why I've seen the NDP candidate at Canada Line stations, while it seems like the Liberals are mainly going door-to-door.
EDIT: looking at other poll results, what happened to the NDP?
Obama may kick it down the road, but I doubt Hilary will stick with her 'No' if she gets in, and any Republican will probably take a photo op of themselves bathing in Alberta crude if they get in
Simon Belmont
Banned
That's what the book on this election is going to be titled.
UberTag
Member
Reminds me of what Republicans said would happen if Obama was elected.
Haven't heard such nonsense since the Y2K scare.
Y2K has nothing on this.
I don't see what's surprising about it. The redistributed results from 2011 had the Conservatives first, Liberals second and NDP third. And the Liberals would have won it in 2008 had it existed then. Half the riding used to be part of Vancouver-Quandra and Vancouver-Centre, the only two Liberal held seats in BC currently.
matthewwhatever
Member
I was in Vancouver a week and a half ago, and the Liberals seemed to be winning the sign war in Granville, from what I saw. I think they win that riding.
Early? The election is on Monday. I don't think we could get much later in the campaign for a trend to start emerging.
35 with a political science degree (and probably the most committed Liberal Party supporter in here), but I'm still skeptical the Conservatives will lose. I think we'll have a 1972-style result, where they're only ahead with the narrowest plurality possible, but their supporters are too single-minded and their GOTV operation is too sophisticated for me to count them out. I'd love to be wrong, though.
Early? The election is on Monday. I don't think we could get much later in the campaign for a trend to start emerging.
35 with a political science degree (and probably the most committed Liberal Party supporter in here), but I'm still skeptical the Conservatives will lose. I think we'll have a 1972-style result, where they're only ahead with the narrowest plurality possible, but their supporters are too single-minded and their GOTV operation is too sophisticated for me to count them out. I'd love to be wrong, though.
gutter_trash would like to have a word with you.
matthewwhatever
Member
He likes Rob Ford, and he's a raving xenophobe. Admittedly, his love of Trudeau borders on a fanaticism I can't match, but I don't think he's as much a Liberal as he is a psychotic anti-separatist.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I saw Iggy and Dion speak. I've got my roots too. I was going to vote ABC but the NDP lost me and the Libs won me back. It is hard to actually picture Harper losing, but remember he lost elections before he won them.
Edit: and I'm 32. Not trying to pass myself off as worldly.
gutter_trash
Banned
I am a Xenophobe? Again lol. That's rich.
I had a 5 year relationship with a Quebecoise who was apolitical but had hardcore Seperatist parents. I loved her parents and her parents loved me. They loved to argue with me being a Federalist.
Gotta seperate politics from normal every day life people.
Politicians are athletes.
Parties are teams.
Supporters are fans.
I picked Coke over Pepsi.
As for Ford,
I like Rob Ford the same way Jimmy Kimmel likes him, not because I side with but because I like to laugh at him.
This animated gif makes my laptop very angry. :/
The Liberal's poll results started going up when Trudeau started showing some actual fire -- fire I expected from Mulcair and not Trudeau. On the contrary, I think this election demonstrates that anger resonates on the campaign trail, especially with a deeply entrenched and unpopular opposition.
Did you watch the Nepean debates? Andy Wang is literally an idiot, he's a terrible Candidate.
The only thing he seems capable of doing is repeating party lines and telling voters how he came to Canada when he was 9 and how he graduated from McGill.
matthewwhatever
Member
I missed the Nepean debates, but considering he thought a Parkinson's fundraising walk was the right place for a Conservative campaign pitch, I'm not shocked to hear he's dumb I'm other venues, too.
Racist, xenophobe, bigot: take your pick. You've made it very clear on multiple occasions what you think of minority rights, and simply going "WOOOO LIBERALS WOOOO TRUDEAU" doesn't give you a pass on that.
Fair point, though I think the anger only worked from Trudeau because he didn't have a reputation as an angry guy, and because he delivered a lot of his attack lines with a smile. Being fiery with a sunny disposition isn't something Mulcair could've pulled off, which is where we differ: you think the right campaign could've saved him, but I'm skeptical (perhaps because I dislike the man so much) that there was necessarily a right campaign.
Racist, xenophobe, bigot: take your pick. You've made it very clear on multiple occasions what you think of minority rights, and simply going "WOOOO LIBERALS WOOOO TRUDEAU" doesn't give you a pass on that.
Fair point, though I think the anger only worked from Trudeau because he didn't have a reputation as an angry guy, and because he delivered a lot of his attack lines with a smile. Being fiery with a sunny disposition isn't something Mulcair could've pulled off, which is where we differ: you think the right campaign could've saved him, but I'm skeptical (perhaps because I dislike the man so much) that there was necessarily a right campaign.
gutter_trash
Banned
Tough words, gotta back it up.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I think a Conservative minority lasts almost the full term, while a Liberal minority lasts for as long as the CPC can do a leadership convention to replace Harper.
Simon Belmont
Banned
No smart party is going to thrust a new leader right into an election campaign.
killer rin
Member
It won't matter how long it takes.
I predict the new Conservative leader will be hammered with constant calls of "He/She is Just Not Ready" by Liberal supporters.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
We're not going to pretend Kathleen Wynne didn't happen. Left-wing campaigns are nice and give you the butterflies, but you shouldn't believe politicians on their promises, not even the NDP. You should go by their record. The Ontario Liberals governed from the right and unsurprisingly, still govern from the right even after they got elected on a left-wing campaign.
Going by record, I believe the federal Liberals will be mostly centrists, left-wing on things that need them (civil rights, marijuana etc.) and right-wing where it'll disappoint you most (C-51). They probably won't get as bad as the Ontario Liberals, since the federal treasury isn't broke like the provincial one.
Simon Belmont
Banned
A lot of the things the Conservatives said about the cost of elections and minority governments are going to come home to roost.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Eh, let's say Harper announces his retirement soon after losing. Then the Conservatives stay in a holding pattern for half a year as they get nominees and hold their convention. Then maybe they give the new guy a year, maybe 2, to become an effective opposition leader... and then they just have to wait for something to happen that they can blame the Liberals on to try to seize the initiative with a ballot box question.
The only wrench in that plan is that if the Liberals win, they'll be very quick to air as much dirty laundry as possible. So the "new" CPC will have to find away to both distance itself from its record and also from the Liberals. But we've already seen that identity politics works - prey on small minded people's fears of Syrian terrorists setting up IEDs in the streets of Calgary and you seem to do fine. lol
Simon Belmont
Banned
Yeah, but even your best case scenario is two and a half to three years away, at that point why wouldn't you just give your new leader another year to percolate. I think the Liberals proved what a disaster that strategy is.
Even if they wanted an election, it's not as easy to manufacture one as you think. The cons would still need a dancing partner.
Even if they wanted an election, it's not as easy to manufacture one as you think. The cons would still need a dancing partner.
gutter_trash
Banned
True.
same goes with promises of repealing the GST and baking out of NAFTA. Chrétien never followed through.
We pick Coke or Pepsi. That's what we do
Poilievre is still too close to the capital for comfort.
- Brampton Centre: Close call.
- Brampton North: Not so close.
- Courtenay-Alberni: Hopefully the NDP's sagging national numbers don't take them down in rural BC. The Liberals have never been big there, so that's probably not a huge risk.
- Edmonton Centre: I agree, big surprise here, since people have mainly been talking about this as the one the Liberals could win. A non-Tory is a non-Tory, of course. Speaking of which...
- Edmonton Mill Woods: Conversely, I haven't seen anybody talking about this one. Looking at liberal.ca, their candidate here is a two-term city councilor. Potential Kevin Lamoureux here, then.
- Flamborough-Glanbrook: I haven't seen this one on anybody's list of competitive ridings, so I'm not sure why it was polled.
- Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: I've seen this listed as a competitive riding too, but evidently the Liberals are pulling away.
- London West: Another strong Liberal result, in a riding widely predicted for them.
- Oakville: I hope John Oliver can find time to do his show while also serving in the House of Co...oh, not that John Oliver. That would have made question period far more entertaining.
- Saint John-Rothesay: Pretty much every other riding shows the Tories with a disadvantage amongst decided voters versus all voters, but in this riding it's the opposite.
- Vancouver-Granville: Just my prediction, Wilson-Raybould will be Trudeau's Minister of Justice.
Is this for real or a photoshop? Good grief.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Well, I guess the point I was making was that I think the Conservatives are in charge of the timeline regardless of the result. lol
I guess the wildcard is the NDP - depends on how badly they have to lick their wounds and whether or not they get annihilated.
I think this gut reaction of yours to Mulcair definitely clouds your judgement on him. To be fair, I have a similar gut reaction to Trudeau from growing up in Alberta (even though I grew up in a -- by Alberta standards -- very liberal family). To counteract that I try to avoid expressing those gut reactions. In the end, I expect the party machine to have more sway than the leader in Canada anyways.
The Mulcair in this campaign is contrary to my expectations of what he would have done. He also does come off as phony a lot, and he isn't very good at spontaneously smiling (some people aren't -- I'm not, for example -- and his campaign team should have figured that out very quickly).
My current theory of why the NDP campaign is off the rails is basically a combination of losing some of their strategist talent from Topp running in the leadership convention and the Alberta win making them think that a campaign-from-the-right-govern-from-the-left approach would work better than it did Federally. With better strategists I think they could have come up with a different approach that would have worked better. Combine that with probably thinking that Trudeau's support for C-51 and pre-election pledges to balance the budget meant they wouldn't be doing a campaign-from-the-left approach and they ended up being forced to the right to avoid the label of far-left that always comes to the NDP when they talk big about left-wing ideas, in ways that don't happen when the Liberals talk about the same thing. When the Liberals talk about running deficits it's prudent Keynsianism. When the NDP do it's left-wingnut overspending. Already have that dichotomy playing out in Alberta where they pretty much had to run a deficit.
On top of that, they *were* successfully pulling some older voters away from the CPC early in the campaign, but the niqab debate just wrecked that completely. That Mulcair, after initially waffling (probably at the advice of his campaign team) a bit, ended up making rather strong statements about it is imo to his credit, but probably cost them a lot of fresh support they were getting.
They got outflanked on both sides. Still, it looks like their fall has been mostly arrested at this point and this'll still be a very good election for the NDP, especially if they hold a balance of power and the Bloc stays down into single-digit seats. Sadly, I expect a lot of newer supporters of the party to ignore that fact and go into panic mode and forget that only ten years ago it was a party that was a complete joke to the electorate (yes, even after Layton became leader). See some of that already in this very thread, even.
lol no. It was for McGuinty's win. They ran it again when Wynne was elected.
Of course not. They even have a sequel last election https://twitter.com/TheTorontoSun/status/477300351737933824?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
gutter_trash
Banned
Pundits were saying that even if Conservatives lose the plurality of seats, Harper is still PM until he faces the Confidence of Parliament.
He can see the Governor General and shutdown Government until next June when they will be forced to table a budget.
Technically it is in the relm of possibilities
He can see the Governor General and shutdown Government until next June when they will be forced to table a budget.
Technically it is in the relm of possibilities
Simon Belmont
Banned
Harper is if nothing else a traditionalist. I'm can't imagine him actually trying to do something like this.
Sakura
Member
Harper has said if another party won more seats then that party would form government even if it is a minority.
Yes, he is absolutely PM until he resigns or faces the house and loses confidence. That said, I think this is a very risky gambit that could easily backfire and destroy everything he's been a part of building. I don't think he'd do it unless he had a very strong plurality (ie. he was like 10 seats short of a majority).
Wow. What are they going to do with a Liberal majority? Move out of Canada? Initiate a call to arms? Commit mass sudoku?
gutter_trash
Banned
Harper is more likely to quit than see Justin's face as PM.
Harper's hatred for Pierre Trudeau is so deep that he wouldn't last one day as leader of opposition under a Justin Trudeau government.
Harper is as good as gone on October 20th
Harper's hatred for Pierre Trudeau is so deep that he wouldn't last one day as leader of opposition under a Justin Trudeau government.
Harper is as good as gone on October 20th
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Maybe a bit premature, but y'all can start writing your sorry and thank you cards to Ontario. We're like, doing all the heavy lifting. Hey BC what's good.
Simon Belmont
Banned
Push comes to shove, I doubt the party would let him do that anyways.
This implies knowledge of at least 9 different numbers, which is a big ask for some.
Unless there's something dreadfully off about that Manitoba sample, man, the Selinger government must be sucking balls to have driven the federal NDP's numbers that low.
That rag falls all over itself to attack the Liberals every chance it gets
I heard that he's the least popular premier in the country. I have no idea what he did though. I mean, I've heard of the province's awful handling of Aboriginal issues on the radio (child services stealing newborns for no reason, Aboriginal children dying in hotels under the government's watch, etc.) but that can't be why he's so disliked since not many people seem to care about that.
ZoltanXerxes
Member
No intention to derail the thread but I was thinking, what if the Air Farce was still on today? I loved that show to death! I imagine it would brilliant in this day and age.
I mean look at this example from years ago. Still one of the best comedy shows Canada has ever had:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlUVXRowiPg
I mean look at this example from years ago. Still one of the best comedy shows Canada has ever had:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlUVXRowiPg
I think harper is smart enough to not try that because I think he knows he will make it way harder for the CPC to win elections in the future. He will piss off the electorate if he tried that.He will just let whoever wins the election become PM.
Simon Belmont
Banned
The poll tracker updated it's projections with the new polls. Unsurprisingly, he still has the Libs in the lead. 35/31/23
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