• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

Status
Not open for further replies.
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
matthewwhatever said:
New Ekos:

Liberal 33.5%
Conservative 32.6%
NDP 22.9%
Green 5.6%
Bloc 3.8%

Liberals down half a point, Conservatives are up three (almost all at the expense of the NDP, it seems).
Click to expand...

Back to panic mode.

Looking at their regional numbers, the only massive difference is that they had Manitoba at 46% Conservative in their last poll, but 60% Conservative in this poll, and the NDP dropping from 13% to 2% (LOL). That's with their terribly low sample size.

But they have Conservatives up in Ontario as well, from 46% - 28% (Lib - Cons) in the last poll, to 43% - 33% in this poll.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
matthewwhatever said:
New Ekos:

Liberal 33.5%
Conservative 32.6%
NDP 22.9%
Green 5.6%
Bloc 3.8%

Liberals down half a point, Conservatives are up three (almost all at the expense of the NDP, it seems).
Click to expand...
Presumably, it's NDP voters changing to Liberal and Liberal voters changing to CPC as they see the momentum shift.

Also, wow if the NDP get wiped out in Toronto. Maybe Chow should have ran in Toronto-Danforth herself. :p
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
Tiktaalik said:
One of the good discussions in this episode is the NDP’s absurd recent talking point that they only need 35 more seats to win and they’re the best placed to defeat Harper. This is clearly not true and both the Strategists heavily criticize the NDP for this stupid campaign tactic. It just looks desperate and Canadians are too smart to fall for this crap.
Click to expand...
Nothing turns me off a political candidate (or anything for that matter... movie, TV show, potential girlfriend) than insulting my intelligence.

Even if I like everything else you're bringing to the table... and even if you make the case that it's a strategically sound approach to bring in the simpleton vote... I'm going to be more inclined to throw my support elsewhere. Purely out of principle.

Tiktaalik said:
What I thought was interesting is that one of the podcast guests suggested that what he would have done instead was to emphasize incumbency, and talk about how the NDP have a lot of great MPs that need to be supported and kept around. I agree that would be the best approach for the NDP to take at this point. Go regional and talk about the great MPs you have and try to retain BC and Quebec.
Click to expand...
That's good advice that I doubt will be listened to. It's a real shame because we're going to lose some phenomenal NDP MPs from Parliament at the expense of some terrible and ill-equipped Liberal MPs just to help ensure Harper gets ousted.
 
S

Sean C

Member
Divvy said:
I don't think so. There's probably some of that, but it's not like weed is so hard to get in other states that you'd need to travel to Colorado to get it.
Click to expand...
There's a pretty strong appeal for people who want to smoke marijuana and not risk getting arrested for it (the risk of that being low, of course, but it's still there, and that's a deterrent for many).

Divvy said:
cK35uVA.png

Why is Thornhill such a bastion of conservatism? And I think it's specifically social conservatism, considering that's where the worst of the sexed outcry came from too.
Click to expand...
The Conservatives have been going very hard after the Jewish vote (see also, but with much less success, Mount Royal), and in Thornhill, at least, it seems to have worked.

Tiktaalik said:
One of the good discussions in this episode is the NDP’s absurd recent talking point that they only need 35 more seats to win and they’re the best placed to defeat Harper. This is clearly not true and both the Strategists heavily criticize the NDP for this stupid campaign tactic. It just looks desperate and Canadians are too smart to fall for this crap.
Click to expand...
I first saw that talking point in a profile of Peggy Nash's campaign in Parkdale-High Park, and it struck me as a pretty strained one, since it would only work on very low-information voters, but even low-information voters would be able to divine from news reports that the Liberals are now polling way ahead of the NDP.

Emphasizing incumbency would probably have worked better, I agree, though I think there are some limitations to that approach when most of the NDP's incumbents in competitive ridings are relative newbies.

matthewwhatever said:
New Ekos:

Liberal 33.5%
Conservative 32.6%
NDP 22.9%
Green 5.6%
Bloc 3.8%

Liberals down half a point, Conservatives are up three (almost all at the expense of the NDP, it seems).
Click to expand...
MeBecomingI said:
That makes me cringe. NDP to Conservatives? Wat.
Click to expand...
In some parts of the country (rural BC, for instance, and parts of Quebec) it is a choice between the Tories and NDP. But it's also possible that the NDP are bleeding to the Liberals while the Liberals are bleeding to the Tories, for instance.

EKOS has consistently been the most favourable pollster for the Tories so far in this campaign, for what it's worth (could be right, could be wrong).
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
Is there any chance that TransCanada might have hurt its interests by trying to make the Liberals look bad with the leaked lobbying email, if the Liberals form government?
 
A

Apathy

Member
Zzoram said:
Is there any chance that TransCanada might have hurt its interests by trying to make the Liberals look bad with the leaked lobbying email, if the Liberals form government?
Click to expand...

Doubtful, but if you believe the NDP supporters, it's the turnaround that will cause Tom to form a super majority.
 
S

Sean C

Member
SheepyGuy said:
Mainstreet's polls for the National Post have been waaaaay more favorable for the Conservatives.
Click to expand...
True, but Mainstreet is also claiming their polling now projects a Liberal majority, which puts it on the opposite end of the poll spectrum.

Zzoram said:
Is there any chance that TransCanada might have hurt its interests by trying to make the Liberals look bad with the leaked lobbying email, if the Liberals form government?
Click to expand...
If that was what the Liberals thought they did, I doubt it would help them.

But in the big picture I'm not sure it will matter that much. There's a much bigger reason I think Energy East is doomed as a project, namely, how many stakeholders have to agree with it. Northern Gateway has ground to a halt, and that just has to pass from Alberta to British Columbia. Energy East has to travel from Alberta through Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec to get to New Brunswick. With all those governments involved, not to mention all the native groups, environmentalists, etc., it'll be a nightmare to ever build it.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
You Are Viewtiful said:
Back to panic mode.

Looking at their regional numbers, the only massive difference is that they had Manitoba at 46% Conservative in their last poll, but 60% Conservative in this poll, and the NDP dropping from 13% to 2% (LOL). That's with their terribly low sample size.

But they have Conservatives up in Ontario as well, from 46% - 28% (Lib - Cons) in the last poll, to 43% - 33% in this poll.
Click to expand...
Ugh
 
K

Kud Dukan

Member
GuessMyUserName said:
Embarrassing seeing my hometown Burlington as the noticeable blue blip off the lake sandwiched by orange/red.

But wow I'm actually shocked the projection has Liberals pretty even now (41.0 - 40.3). Last times I checked Cons were usually up 10 points. I know my dad voted early this Monday for Libs, as he despises Harper. Mom's gonna go election day, and until then she's even trying to convince her oldest work friend who's voting Cons because of her husband or something.


... Now I'm sad that I'm registered for here at York (99% Liberal projection), even though my drivers license has my Burlington address on it... Burlington needs meeeeeeee
Click to expand...

I've done my part in Burlington! Voted Liberal over the weekend. Fingers crossed!
 
M

mo60

Member
Tiktaalik said:
I think it's possible that some people decide in the voting booth. At least one political strategist on the Strategists podcast thinks so.

Speaking of that, there's a new Strategists Podcast that came out yesterday! I discovered this podcast this election and I think it’s worth a listen. It’s two professional political strategists talking about strategy, and it’s pretty funny and entertaining. If you’re a big enough politics nerd to still be in this thread talking about this election after all this time you’ll probably enjoy it.

One of the good discussions in this episode is the NDP’s absurd recent talking point that they only need 35 more seats to win and they’re the best placed to defeat Harper. This is clearly not true and both the Strategists heavily criticize the NDP for this stupid campaign tactic. It just looks desperate and Canadians are too smart to fall for this crap.

What I thought was interesting is that one of the podcast guests suggested that what he would have done instead was to emphasize incumbency, and talk about how the NDP have a lot of great MPs that need to be supported and kept around. I agree that would be the best approach for the NDP to take at this point. Go regional and talk about the great MPs you have and try to retain BC and Quebec.

Stemming from that idea, if we are to talk about potential upsets, I think a pretty big upset would be if some “safe” NDP held seats in Quebec and BC flip to the Liberals. Similarly it would be an upset if the Liberals do phenomenally well in taking Conservative seats, but surprisingly few NDP seats change hands.

I think one of the big storylines of election night will be whether it’s the “Trudeau Election” or “the ABC Election.” Will Canadians overwhelmingly support the Liberals as the best agent of change or will they more pragmatically support “ABC,” including the NDP, in order to simply not elect Conservatives.
Click to expand...

It will be the ABC election to an extent especially in BC and Quebec at this point. I think the NDP will do well in both provinces even if they end up in third overall.I can see the NDP stealing a lot of seats from the Conservatives in BC for example.
And it looks like the ndp went up six seats in Eric Grenier's latest poll tracker up thanks to Quebec and BC mostly while the conservatives dropped to 110 seats.
Latest update
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

The CPC is down to 37 seats in Ontario.
 
S

Sean C

Member
GuessMyUserName said:
Embarrassing seeing my hometown Burlington as the noticeable blue blip off the lake sandwiched by orange/red.

But wow I'm actually shocked the projection has Liberals pretty even now (41.0 - 40.3). Last times I checked Cons were usually up 10 points. I know my dad voted early this Monday for Libs, as he despises Harper. Mom's gonna go election day, and until then she's even trying to convince her oldest work friend who's voting Cons because of her husband or something.


... Now I'm sad that I'm registered for here at York (99% Liberal projection), even though my drivers license has my Burlington address on it... Burlington needs meeeeeeee
Click to expand...
Looking at the riding history, Paddy Torsney recorded a remarkably consistent 43-45% of the vote in Burlington in her four wins there from 1993-2004, before losing in 2006-2008 with lower totals in the 30s. It's not outside the realm of possibility for the Liberals to win there, though the recent trends obviously haven't been in the party's favour.
 
W

Walpurgis

Banned
Morrigan Stark said:
Sigh
Click to expand...

gaboumafou said:
I'll let you guys in on a secret. Notice how the "b" of "bq" is just the "p" of "pq" flipped upside-down? The bq is, in fact, an undercover branch of the pq. They have a strong hate of canadians and the english language and are secretly working on a parasite that only infects english speakers, to wipe the english language from the face of the earth.
Click to expand...

You really don't think that the CPC and BQ are racist...?
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Sean C said:
Looking at the riding history, Paddy Torsney recorded a remarkably consistent 43-45% of the vote in Burlington in her four wins there from 1993-2004, before losing in 2006-2008 with lower totals in the 30s. It's not outside the realm of possibility for the Liberals to win there, though the recent trends obviously haven't been in the party's favour.
Click to expand...

I put that one in the Conservative column for now, but I think the Liberals could have it back by the next election if they can grow enough this time out. There are a lot of Ontario seats like that.

Also, Tik, your point about emphasizing incumbency isn't terrible, but usually when you see MPs rolling that point out it's a sign the party is headed for disaster. I'm pretty sure PCers used it in 1993 and the Liberals in 2011, and we saw how well that turned out. There are a few MPs it works for, but they need to be Herb Grey/Charles Caccia-style incumbents, where they have decades-long roots and GOTV operations like you wouldn't believe.
 
M

Mimosa97

Member
At this point by voting NDP you're electing Harper.

People really need to wake the fuck up and start doing the maths.

I'm probably going back home in the next year but if I end up staying here in Canada I really don't want to live under Harper.

France is turning to shit, Canada is turning to shit. Everywhere I go is turning to shit.
 
S

Sean C

Member
Mimosa97 said:
At this point by voting NDP you're electing Harper.

People really need to wake the fuck up and start doing the maths.
Click to expand...
That's really not how it works. There are a good many ridings where the NDP can win and the Liberals can't.

mo60 said:
I think the Star is wrong and 308 is close in this instance.
Click to expand...
I agree. The Star's riding percentages are implausible in a lot of cases.
 
P

Popstar

Member
I want a change of government as much as anyone but there's nothing wrong with people voting their conscience instead of strategically.
 
M

mo60

Member
Mimosa97 said:
At this point by voting NDP you're electing Harper.

People really need to wake the fuck up and start doing the maths.

I'm probably going back home in the next year but if I end up staying here in Canada I really don't want to live under Harper.

France is turning to shit, Canada is turning to shit. Everywhere I go is turning to shit.
Click to expand...

People should be voting for the NDP in Saskatchewan, BC and Quebec mostly to stop the CPC at this point besides the NDP favored ridings in other regions.. People should vote for the Liberals everywhere else especially in Liberal favored ridings.
 
W

Walpurgis

Banned
Mimosa97 said:
At this point by voting NDP you're electing Harper.

People really need to wake the fuck up and start doing the maths.

I'm probably going back home in the next year but if I end up staying here in Canada I really don't want to live under Harper.

France is turning to shit, Canada is turning to shit. Everywhere I go is turning to shit.
Click to expand...
The situation is actually the opposite in my riding, which has historically been NDP. Last election a CPC nobody managed to sneak in but the Liberals have never had a chance here. People watching the news in my riding may think they should vote Liberal but by doing that, they would be electing a CPC MP.
Morrigan Stark said:
CPC yes, BQ no, and equating the two as being the same is patently ridiculous. I'm not remotely a Bloc supporter but come on.
Click to expand...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVE-N-htzKs

And let's not forget that BQ and PQ are basically the same.
 
K

killer rin

Member
So a CPC representitive for Jeff Watson, our current Conservative MP came to the door. I tried to shoo him away with the good-ol "We're not voting this year" quip, but he jumped into the "This is the most important election of all time" speech, touting the Conservative lies of the Liberals and NDP going to raise our taxes and put injection sites on our block.

...I was screaming inside, I wanted to call him out on it, but I couldn't. I didn't even have it in me to say we already voted NDP.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
Mimosa97 said:
Obviously look at your riding and vote accordingly but I've met people who are voting NDP " just because " ...

Fucking idiots.



Come on you know what I meant. I've been reading this thread for weeks (without posting). I'm not that dumb.
Click to expand...

Don't you live in Quebec? Voting NDP is the strategic vote in 59 out of 78 ridings there. Either way, Conservatives don't really have much of a chance in most of Quebec. The only non-Conservative "Harper party" there is the Bloc. All the Bloc can do is serve as a coalition spoiler and keep Harper in power, and they will also vote down PR.
 
S

Sean C

Member
killer rin said:
So a CPC representitive for Jeff Watson, our current Conservative MP came to the door. I tried to shoo him away with the good-ol "We're not voting this year" quip, but he jumped into the "This is the most important election of all time" speech, touting the Conservative lies of the Liberals and NDP going to raise our taxes and put injection sites on our block.

...I was screaming inside, I wanted to call him out on it, but I couldn't. I didn't even have it in me to say we already voted NDP.
Click to expand...
Hmm, Essex. There was an Environics poll recently that had the NDP one point behind the CPC, so your vote may indeed elect your preferred candidate.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
You Are Viewtiful said:
Don't you live in Quebec? Voting NDP is the strategic vote in 59 out of 78 ridings there. Either way, Conservatives don't really have much of a chance in most of Quebec. The only non-Conservative "Harper party" there is the Bloc. All the Bloc can do is serve as a coalition spoiler and keep Harper in power, and they will also vote down PR.
Click to expand...

you are so wrong on so many levels, the Bloc is not an ABC party. The Bloc is a Conservative enabler

If you are on the Island of Montreal or suburbs of Montreal and Laval. Conservatives are a ZERO threat in the area, So voting Liberal would be the more logical choice in the Greater Montreal area to send a plurality of Liberal MPs to ensure government.

Conservatives are a threat in Quebec City, Sagenay and the way up to Beauce and Riviere-du-Loup.
 
K

killer rin

Member
Sean C said:
Hmm, Essex. There was an Environics poll recently that had the NDP one point behind the CPC, so your vote may indeed elect your preferred candidate.
Click to expand...

It does parrot what I am seeing. If you looked at the signs Lakeshore (the largest municipality, and my own) seems to be going full NDP, because all I see is a sea of NDP with small spots of Conservative and tiny drops of Liberal... and as of yesterday, 3 Greens. So we actually have a chance of taking Jeff Watson down, or at least set him up to fall for next election.

Of course though, the NDP candidate lives in Lakeshore, and the Liberal and Conservative candidates live in the second and third most populated municipalities which I haven't been to lately, and they are too far away from my natural drive to see their sign game.

It'll be interesting to see which way we go
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
gutter_trash said:
you are so wrong on so many levels, the Bloc is not an ABC party. The Bloc is a Conservative enabler

If you are on the Island of Montreal or suburbs of Montreal and Laval. Conservatives are a ZERO threat in the area, So voting Liberal would be the more logical choice in the Greater Montreal area to send a plurality of Liberal MPs to ensure government.

Conservatives are a threat in Quebec City, Sagenay and the way up to Beauce and Riviere-du-Loup.
Click to expand...

Haha, yeah, that's what I said :p The Bloc would spoil any Liberal-NDP coalition, which would keep Harper in power.
 
I

IceIpor

Member
Wow... CPC is getting desperate.

Liberals, NDP decline PCO offer of confidential briefing on TPP trade deal
The Liberals and New Democrats have declined an offer from the Privy Council Office to attend a confidential briefing just days before the federal election to learn more details of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, saying the meeting was offered at the "last minute" and would still leave Canadians "in the dark."
Click to expand...
Sounds kind of... shady.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
Politics... be always careful what you wish for.
4
987
TehDark replied
  • Locked
[TNYT] Brazil Blocks X After Musk Ignores Court Orders
Social News Community 2
69
5K
ManaByte replied
Satya Nadella: Annual letter to stockholders. Content on new platforms will continue
4 5 6 7 8
352
21K
noob smokes replied
Ontario General Election 2018 |OT|
4
855
bloodydrake replied
Jacinda Ardern is next prime minister of New Zealand (after 9 years of right wing)
2 3
114
17K
30yearsofhurt replied
Top Bottom