PumpkinSpice
Banned
Does Harper really think attaching these lunatics to his campaign is in any way a good idea?
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
- Start date
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Does Harper really think attaching these lunatics to his campaign is in any way a good idea?
TheRealTalker
Banned
killer rin
Member
He's trying to reignite Ford Nation, but really it makes all too much sense that the most despicable of Canadians are sticking together
Based on what? Sure, the polls could all be wrong; but I don't see any particular reason to assume that as the starting point.
Beyond which, unless Harper gets a majority, which I am comfortable saying is impossible, he's out as PM. The specific results of a minority parliament will only dictate how speedily he departs.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
I'm referring to the ranges. 100-141 for Conservatives, 110-151 for the Liberals. Conservatives max out at 187, Liberals max out at 169 (cusp of majority). If you take margin of error into account, it's still very much a tie.
I don't think 308 added the latest Nanos poll though. That might change things up.
Ford Nation is dead. John Tory is a very popular mayor for both sides of the political spectrum. Harper's getting very desperate.
I saw this live a few hours ago. Christ, these Fords. Fucking sad.
LOL - The Ford kiss of death. Guess the Liberals are gonna have this handed to them, but I definitely expect some voting irregularities (read cheating) to show up.
Edit:
Not surprising in any way, shape, or form.
When you are only going for 30% of the electorate I think going for the crazies is a good strategy. It's like when you see polls in the states there's always 20% of people that believe something insane:
Is Obama a muslin 20% YES
Does God walk among us 20% YES
Jet fuel can't melt steel 20% YES.
Just need 10% more and you've got a lock.
love that he says Tom Mulclair. That guy is totally with it.
I don't think anyone within the conservative party is dumb enough to try cheating again. Maybe a rouge conservative staffer if we are unlucky like last election.And unless the conservatives get closer to the Liberals in Ontario they won't win.
Tom McClair, leader of the NPD.
I would like to believe this, but I'm afraid of other things as well, such as if the CPC gets kicked out, a bunch of files/deals/paperwork suddenly goes missing as we transition over.
You're waaaaay more optimistic than I am...and give them too much credit.
Did you happen to read the excerpt from the book by one Rob Ford's ex staff member? That was some horrifyingly funny read.
One of the stranger electoral overlaps in the country is that Rob Ford's council seat is represented in the House of Commons by a Liberal (even post-2011). It's a queer electorate that votes for both Rob Ford and Kirsty Duncan.
I'm kinda scared of that to.I hope that does not happen.
I have, yes. And I live in a suburb outside Toronto, so that coupled with some people who really are part of the Ford Nation makes me shake my fucking head. A stain on this country. Of course they'd get tied up with the Cons nationally. Of course.
matthewwhatever
Member
Nah, Trudeau had a similar response to Energy East protesters when they interrupted one of his events last year. People started booing, but he shut them down and told the protesters they could have the floor while they said what they wanted to say, on the condition they not disrupt the rest of the event. I think his teaching background makes him more equipped to handle those distractions than most people.
Like I said a few pages ago: I'm thinking the Liberals and Conservatives basically end up tied in seat count. Even if the Liberals are ahead in the polls, the last few elections have shown that polls understate Conservative support and overstate Liberal/NDP support.
Zero self-awareness.
Skippy as in Poilievre? He's probably even more toxic than Kenney. A year ago Kenney probably would've had the inside track, but I think his dismal performance as Defense Minister has tanked his chances. I really don't know who follows Harper. I think Rona Ambrose makes a run at the job. If Lisa Raitt wins in Halton, I could see her having supporters. Apparently Jean Charest is considering it, if Twitter is to be believed. Doug Ford is also talking about it. Two dark horse candidates: Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier. I've heard rumours of a Draft Leitch movement, and Paul Wells has been saying for years that Bernier is someone to watch. Maybe Mackay or Moore return to politics?
Simon Belmont
Banned
60 - 80 million a year says my ass.
I've seen 160 million a year bandied about for the whole of Canada.
Or more
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/fraser-institute-study-calls-for-legal-pot-1.474737
Edit: Story is from 2004, sorry about that.
Or more
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/fraser-institute-study-calls-for-legal-pot-1.474737
Edit: Story is from 2004, sorry about that.
I think that if either of them were going to do that they wouldn't have retired this election. Assuming Harper won, he would have retired probably around 2 years into his term, to make way for a successor. Everybody always thought this would be his last campaign, one way or another.
If anything, I'd say the current scenario makes them running even less likely, since it would require them to jump into the race pretty much immediately after leaving the House, which would look silly.
killer rin
Member
Well, considering Marijuana is a party drug which can be used in Medicinal applications, I'd assume it would bring in more than Cigarettes, though less than Alcohol.
Prax
Member
I am kind of scared of the disaster waiting for cleanup in the office and then somehow the Liberals or coalition not being able to fulfill many of their campaign promises because of it..
But here's hoping it will be a smooth transition!
I'm personally hoping for a Liberal majority so things can get done quickly.
But here's hoping it will be a smooth transition!
I'm personally hoping for a Liberal majority so things can get done quickly.
matthewwhatever
Member
I think there's zero chance it's Baird. Too many skeletons in his closet, and I don't think the social conservatives are *that* accepting.
I've always thought they both jumped ship now because they thought it was going to be a losing campaign, and didn't want to be stuck with the stench of failure. It may look a little silly if they return so quickly, but all they have to say is that they heard the call from their party and their country and they diffuse that. I know they both have young kids (and one with an illness or a disability in Moore's case, if I'm not mistaken), but I can't imagine they're both gone from public life for good.
I've always thought they both jumped ship now because they thought it was going to be a losing campaign, and didn't want to be stuck with the stench of failure. It may look a little silly if they return so quickly, but all they have to say is that they heard the call from their party and their country and they diffuse that. I know they both have young kids (and one with an illness or a disability in Moore's case, if I'm not mistaken), but I can't imagine they're both gone from public life for good.
TheRealTalker
Banned
Colorado has been raking in the cash
well isn't that because other citizens from outside that state are going in there to buy
it would likely be more spread out if all states legalized it
I don't think so. There's probably some of that, but it's not like weed is so hard to get in other states that you'd need to travel to Colorado to get it.
GuessMyUserName
Member
Holy shit am I hearing things or did he seriously just go the "Trudeau smoked pot!" route, even topped off with calling Trudeau hypocritical.
Omg
I guess the big unknown is the "undecided" voter category. The latest Nanos has that at 9%. Not sure that number is big enough for big upsets, but it would certainly decide close contests.
You'd think they'd be the most likely to go with whoever appears to have the momentum (Liberals) or very likely to just stick with the incumbent of their riding.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
If some people are still undecided then those people aren't voting.
matthewwhatever
Member
I think at this point, we should assume anyone still telling pollsters they're not voting is most likely not voting, but too embarrassed by that to actually admit it. That's the general rule in every election, so it seems safe to apply it here, too.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
Doubling down on stupidity.
No company would hire a scumbag like you or your crackhead brother.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Haha, naw. Thornhill != Thorncliffe
Thornhill is upper-middle income suburb, and also has a large Jewish community. Conservatives have good ground game there. Liberals came very close to unseating them in the provincial election last year, I can see them winning this time around since the gulf between Lib-Cons is bigger this election.
It has Newmarket as blue. I don't think that'll happen, that one's most likely red. Burlington might also go red.
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Speaking of Thorncliffe, anyone realize that Harper just totally torpedoed the provincial Conservatives chances? Recently arrived, socially conservative Muslims was all Patrick Brown had going for him. Now they've sworn off the Conservative brand forever. Now all he has are white rural homophobes. Not exactly a big group.
Haha, naw. Thornhill != Thorncliffe
Thornhill is upper-middle income suburb, and also has a large Jewish community. Conservatives have good ground game there. Liberals came very close to unseating them in the provincial election last year, I can see them winning this time around since the gulf between Lib-Cons is bigger this election.
It has Newmarket as blue. I don't think that'll happen, that one's definitely red. Burlington might also go red.
Oh I thought the hubbub was from Thornhill, my bad.
I forgot about the Jewish community in Thornhill, that's probably why. I'm mostly used to the eastern side of it where it's a lower income, immigrant community.
You also have to take into account that those 9% unknown could very well not vote at all. It's most likely not going to be 9% addition total towards any party; maybe 4-5% tops
Zombie James
Banned
Nice to see Harper and the Conservative party finally branching out to the old, rich, and white demographic.
BigJonsson
Member
I live in Thornhill, Kent is popular but it was liberal until he came around
Simon Belmont
Banned
The most likely outcome is that those who do vote will do so along similar lines as those already decided.
Maximus.
Member
Well with a minority government, it may be tough to do a lot of things they want :/ Hope the NDP will be willing to help them out when necessary.
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
Only you could turn a simple "are you a French or English native speaker" question and turn it into a political anti-Mulcair mud-singling statement, LOL
Hey gutter, what time is it?
"It's 4:11 PM, the time where Mulcair said one thing in French which contradicted what he said same time last week in English"
I am a French speaker and never voted Bloc or PQ.
And here I thought only Québec was bigoted...! xD
I think it's possible that some people decide in the voting booth. At least one political strategist on the Strategists podcast thinks so.
Speaking of that, there's a new Strategists Podcast that came out yesterday! I discovered this podcast this election and I think its worth a listen. Its two professional political strategists talking about strategy, and its pretty funny and entertaining. If youre a big enough politics nerd to still be in this thread talking about this election after all this time youll probably enjoy it.
One of the good discussions in this episode is the NDPs absurd recent talking point that they only need 35 more seats to win and theyre the best placed to defeat Harper. This is clearly not true and both the Strategists heavily criticize the NDP for this stupid campaign tactic. It just looks desperate and Canadians are too smart to fall for this crap.
What I thought was interesting is that one of the podcast guests suggested that what he would have done instead was to emphasize incumbency, and talk about how the NDP have a lot of great MPs that need to be supported and kept around. I agree that would be the best approach for the NDP to take at this point. Go regional and talk about the great MPs you have and try to retain BC and Quebec.
Stemming from that idea, if we are to talk about potential upsets, I think a pretty big upset would be if some safe NDP held seats in Quebec and BC flip to the Liberals. Similarly it would be an upset if the Liberals do phenomenally well in taking Conservative seats, but surprisingly few NDP seats change hands.
I think one of the big storylines of election night will be whether its the Trudeau Election or the ABC Election. Will Canadians overwhelmingly support the Liberals as the best agent of change or will they more pragmatically support ABC, including the NDP, in order to simply not elect Conservatives.
"I support a man that is literally taking away my right as a Canadian expatriate to vote in future elections, go team Harper"
He should be ashamed. If i want hockey strategy, I'll ask him, but concerning politics hes near the bottom of the list.
gutter_trash
Banned
Gretzky is one to speak about family values LOL
Google Paulina Gretzky
Google Paulina Gretzky
GuessMyUserName
Member
Why is Thornhill such a bastion of conservatism? And I think it's specifically social conservatism, considering that's where the worst of the sexed outcry came from too.
Embarrassing seeing my hometown Burlington as the noticeable blue blip off the lake sandwiched by orange/red.
But wow I'm actually shocked the projection has Liberals pretty even now (41.0 - 40.3). Last times I checked Cons were usually up 10 points. I know my dad voted early this Monday for Libs, as he despises Harper. Mom's gonna go election day, and until then she's even trying to convince her oldest work friend who's voting Cons because of her husband or something.
... Now I'm sad that I'm registered for here at York (99% Liberal projection), even though my drivers license has my Burlington address on it... Burlington needs meeeeeeee
matthewwhatever
Member
New Ekos:
Liberal 33.5%
Conservative 32.6%
NDP 22.9%
Green 5.6%
Bloc 3.8%
Liberals down half a point, Conservatives are up three (almost all at the expense of the NDP, it seems).
Liberal 33.5%
Conservative 32.6%
NDP 22.9%
Green 5.6%
Bloc 3.8%
Liberals down half a point, Conservatives are up three (almost all at the expense of the NDP, it seems).
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