Tomorrow night? Maybe past 10 PM?
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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firehawk12
Subete no aware
It depends if it's close enough for them to need to worry about how BC ends up. I expect it'll be decided by the time Ontario polls close though.
I can't remember if it's still illegal to report election results from other time zones though, or whatever that stupid law was to prevent east coast results from "spoiling" west coast voters and affecting their voting decisions.
They gave up on that in the internet age.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I just remember a blog got in trouble for it, but can't remember what happened. I guess they appealed the law or something and it became legal?
The government voluntarily changed the law.
Enter the Dragon Punch
Banned
BC's biggest newspaper, The Province, is running the full page VOTING LIBERAL WILL COST YOU Tories ad today.
Fucking disgusting.
Fucking disgusting.
Ohh. So it will be much earlier? It's my first election and had no idea how long is the process. That will be nice if they will proclaim the PM before 10 PM.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Results will start pouring in after polls close, usually takes about a half hour to an hour to get decent estimates of a winner for most ridings. Close ridings take longer.
Atlantic Canada closes at 8:30pm ADT, so we'll start seeing results around 7:30pm EDT and then Quebec through Alberta results will start coming after 9:30pm EDT. BC is half an hour later at 10pm EDT.
So we should probably know a bit after 10 which party will form government, but if it's close to a majority we probably won't know until late.
Atlantic Canada closes at 8:30pm ADT, so we'll start seeing results around 7:30pm EDT and then Quebec through Alberta results will start coming after 9:30pm EDT. BC is half an hour later at 10pm EDT.
So we should probably know a bit after 10 which party will form government, but if it's close to a majority we probably won't know until late.
matthewwhatever
Member
If it's close to a majority, I think we'll know relatively early, since that would require either the Liberals winning a surprising amount of Quebec and Ontario seats, or the Conservatives holding on to a sufficient number of their Ontario seats. In a minority, we'll be watching all the way to BC counting.
So no one else wants to give their exact seat count predictions?
So no one else wants to give their exact seat count predictions?
Enter the Dragon Punch
Banned
Simon Belmont
Banned
My seat projections, pulled mostly from my ass:
Libs: 150
Cons: 125
NDP: 59
BQ: 3
G: 1
Libs: 150
Cons: 125
NDP: 59
BQ: 3
G: 1
ShinRPGamer
Member
Switch the Liberal and NDP around and you basically have the past results in my riding.
Is it really worth losing a quarter of your paying subscription?
Impeccable
Member
https://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35014/brucegreyowen-sound/
Holy shit, this has been as deep blue as long as I've lived here. Now it's a dead heat.
MY VOTE MATTERS AGAIN!
Holy shit, this has been as deep blue as long as I've lived here. Now it's a dead heat.
MY VOTE MATTERS AGAIN!
Simon Belmont
Banned
My folks cottage is in Tobermory. Maybe I can vote there instead of the Conservative stronghold that is Elgin-Middlesex
https://www.votetogether.ca/riding/11002/charlottetown/
Casey had a relatively close call in 2011, but he's going to win comfortably this time.
Casey had a relatively close call in 2011, but he's going to win comfortably this time.
gutter_trash
Banned
vs
I don't know about English Canada but lots of heads turned in Quebec when Harper shook hands with his son on his day to school instead of a hug or peck on the cheek.
As a southern European myself, I found this really odd behavior and cold.
Contrast that with Justin Trudeau, he is not shy to display his love for his kids and shows off a warm family siade to him that Harper seems to lack.
I don't doubt Harper loving his kids, I am sure he is a good Dad but he comes off image-wise as cold. (Blue?)
Trudeau comes off as warm (Red?)
Enter the Dragon Punch
Banned
vs
I don't know about English Canada but lots of heads turned in Quebec when Harper shook hands with his son on his day to school instead of a hug or peck on the cheek.
As a southern European myself, I found this really odd behavior and cold.
Contrast that with Justin Trudeau, he is not shy to display his love for his kids and shows off a warm family siade to him that Harper seems to lack.
I don't doubt Harper loving his kids, I am sure he is a good Dad but he comes off image-wise as cold. (Blue?)
Trudeau comes off as warm (Red?)
gutter_trash
Banned
hahaha the cats!!! they get me every time
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
You're trying way too hard now. Stop. Scrutinizing and politicizing how someone shows affections to their kids? WTF? How is this even relevant?
vs
I don't know about English Canada but lots of heads turned in Quebec when Harper shook hands with his son on his day to school instead of a hug or peck on the cheek.
As a southern European myself, I found this really odd behavior and cold.
Contrast that with Justin Trudeau, he is not shy to display his love for his kids and shows off a warm family siade to him that Harper seems to lack.
I don't doubt Harper loving his kids, I am sure he is a good Dad but he comes off image-wise as cold. (Blue?)
Trudeau comes off as warm (Red?)
Next you'll point out that Mulcair kissed his son publicly but only in Québec, to pander like the flip-flopper that he is, right?
D'@rtagnan
Neo Member
According to Ekos the Cons hold the lead in early voting.
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/stalemate-continues/
Has this been discussed ?
Should we be worried ?
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/stalemate-continues/
Has this been discussed ?
Should we be worried ?
Sapiens
Member
Also, Justin mustered up the courage to have sex with a woman at least THREE times as opposed to harper's impotent TWO sexual encounters.
It's curious that while they give the n of how many people they sampled in total, they don't include the breakdown of how many have already voted. For all we know, the already voted numbers are from 50 responders.
I don't know man, i feel like people are smart enough to realize one picture isn't going to reflect the entire relationship between father and son
vs
I don't know about English Canada but lots of heads turned in Quebec when Harper shook hands with his son on his day to school instead of a hug or peck on the cheek.
As a southern European myself, I found this really odd behavior and cold.
Contrast that with Justin Trudeau, he is not shy to display his love for his kids and shows off a warm family siade to him that Harper seems to lack.
I don't doubt Harper loving his kids, I am sure he is a good Dad but he comes off image-wise as cold. (Blue?)
Trudeau comes off as warm (Red?)
Enter the Dragon Punch
Banned
Yeah, Harper probably beats his son with a belt after he loses hockey games breh
Not just that, they also show that people who are voting tomorrow prefer Liberals
matthewwhatever
Member
It's why I'm hesitant to believe the Liberals' lead in the polls matters all that much. Conservative voters are dedicated, and their vote is much more locked in than anyone else's.
Seriously. Families should be off limits, unless there's an obvious policy reason to involve them. Not cool.
killer rin
Member
Not to mention, i found a pretty compelling argument for the findings in the comments saying essentially that it would make sense for the Conservative vote to be higher in the advanced polls because the Conservatives have the highest number of Decided Voters compared to the Liberals and NDP.
If Conservatives already know who they are voting for while NDP and Liberals are currently waiting to see which way the wind blows by election day, then that would reveal why it came out like so
Kabuki Quantum Lover
Member
Well, it's trending towards a Harper majority, so there's nothing to be afraid of. We'll be safe from those bothersome drug injection brothel Muslim investment environmentalist lying pieces of shit.
*dies*
EKOS is the most Conservative-friendly pollster of the bunch, so that result is better measured against their own polls which typically show the race within a point or two, rather than the other polling that shows a wider Liberal lead.
Which isn't to say that EKOS might not be right, but one should know the context.
Harper is out even if he gets more seats, anyway, it will just take longer.
I did see plenty of old people when I was in line to vote.
Fear is a powerful motivator, and their whole campaign is dealing in fear.
D'@rtagnan
Neo Member
Well, I guess we'll see tomorrow.
But I don't think I would handle it well if I have to see Harper manage to win again, after all the crap he's pulled over the years.
But I don't think I would handle it well if I have to see Harper manage to win again, after all the crap he's pulled over the years.
Simon Belmont
Banned
Not necessarily surprising considering how differently EKOS and Nanos have been reporting what the over 65 voters are going to do.
Enter the Dragon Punch
Banned
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/the-gargoyle-abducted-lawn-signs-found-discarded-in-orleans
Stay classy Conservatives
Stay classy Conservatives
I miss Jack.
killer rin
Member
It's going to depend on whether or not they have enough seats to be the Kingmaker. If they do, Muclair will stay, if not; he leaves.
Hello tiny human. Do you like candy? I have some candy in the van around the corner.
That's pretty accurate to my feelings after reading that.
Zombie James
Banned
Oh relax. Even pollsters favoring Conservatives (like EKOS) show a dead heat/slim minority at best.
Today's Nanos:
Edit: Just as an example, this is what EKOS looked like two days before the Ontario election last year:
matthewwhatever
Member
Nanos has one more poll coming out this evening. It'll be interesting to see if there's any convergence with Ekos at all, or if his numbers stay close to Ipsos, Forum, Leger, etc.
It depends how much the Liberals need them to pass legislation. If there's a majority for any party, I doubt he sticks around to finish out the year. In a minority situation...who knows? The NDP may not like the thought of being without a leader in the middle of a possible election campaign (in which case Mulcair stays), or they may think it's urgent that they have a new leader in place for whenever an election happens. Leadership races are expensive, and they probably wouldn't want to be in a position of calling on their donor base twice in a really short timespan, particularly since they still lag well behind the other two parties when it comes to fundraising).
It also depends on who gets returned to Parliament. They have a few leadership contenders waiting in the wings (Nathan Cullen, Niki Ashton...not sure who else), but that doesn't mean anything if they lose their seats. They may also not want to be the one who pushes Mulcair out; the NDP has never had the kind of leadership drama that's affected the other two parties, so there's no telling how the party membership would react to a leader getting knifed.
It depends how much the Liberals need them to pass legislation. If there's a majority for any party, I doubt he sticks around to finish out the year. In a minority situation...who knows? The NDP may not like the thought of being without a leader in the middle of a possible election campaign (in which case Mulcair stays), or they may think it's urgent that they have a new leader in place for whenever an election happens. Leadership races are expensive, and they probably wouldn't want to be in a position of calling on their donor base twice in a really short timespan, particularly since they still lag well behind the other two parties when it comes to fundraising).
It also depends on who gets returned to Parliament. They have a few leadership contenders waiting in the wings (Nathan Cullen, Niki Ashton...not sure who else), but that doesn't mean anything if they lose their seats. They may also not want to be the one who pushes Mulcair out; the NDP has never had the kind of leadership drama that's affected the other two parties, so there's no telling how the party membership would react to a leader getting knifed.
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